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市场情绪悲观,多晶硅偏弱震荡
Hong Ye Qi Huo· 2026-03-30 12:24
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment is pessimistic, with polysilicon showing a weak and volatile trend. For industrial silicon, the supply remains relatively stable, demand is stable within a certain range, and high inventories are difficult to reduce, so the market is expected to remain volatile in the short term. For polysilicon, the supply - demand structure is weak, inventories are accumulating slightly and remaining at a high level, and it is expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term [2][3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of March 27, 2026, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed was 8700 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the futures main contract rebounded from a low - level oscillation, closing at 8625 yuan/ton on March 27 [2][8] - **Supply**: Northwest China has stable production, the expectation of electricity price increase for large factories in Xinjiang has completely subsided. Yunnan and Sichuan are restricted by high electricity prices during the dry season, with low start - up rates and weak willingness to resume production. The overall start - up rate remains stable. Due to the self - discipline of silicon enterprises, the market has rebounded to some extent [2] - **Demand**: The weekly start - up rate of polysilicon enterprises is basically stable, with a limited increase in production in April and limited incremental demand for industrial silicon. The weekly start - up rate of organic silicon has declined slightly, and some monomer plants are under maintenance, with cautious procurement of industrial silicon. The start - up rate of aluminum alloy enterprises is basically stable, and terminal consumption has limited improvement. In February, industrial silicon exports were 47,500 tons, a 27% decrease from the previous month and a 7% increase year - on - year [2] - **Cost**: The cost of industrial silicon has increased slightly this week [2] - **Inventory**: As of March 26, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 560,000 tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week [2] - **Price Difference**: As of March 27, 2026, the price difference between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 400 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the price difference between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - passed and 421 oxygen - passed was 250 yuan/ton, also unchanged from last week [12] - **Output**: As of March 27, 2026, the number of open furnaces for national industrial silicon was 209, unchanged from last week; the start - up rate was 25.93%, unchanged from the previous week; the weekly output was 78,300 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from the previous week [19] Polysilicon - **Price**: As of March 27, 2026, the spot price of N - type dense material was 41,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2000 yuan/ton from last week; the futures main contract continued to decline, closing at 35,680 yuan/ton on March 27 [3][15] - **Supply**: The market trading atmosphere is light, and both upstream and downstream enterprises are relatively pessimistic about the future market. Polysilicon production may increase to some extent in April, but the overall increase is limited [3] - **Demand**: The recovery of terminal installation demand is slow. Downstream enterprises mainly replenish stocks for刚需. Some silicon material enterprises are forced to accept low - price orders due to inventory and capital pressure. Silicon wafer prices continue to decline, and procurement demand is poor, with a wait - and - see attitude. In February, the import volume of polysilicon was 1,622.13 tons, a 55% increase from the previous month; the export volume was 2,214.66 tons, a 21% increase from the previous month [5] - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon has remained stable this week [5] - **Inventory**: As of March 27, 2026, the polysilicon factory inventory was 333,200 tons, an increase of 2,500 tons from last week [4][23] Downstream Products - **Silicon Wafers**: As of March 27, 2026, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm) and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.015, 1.015, 1.115 and 1.315 yuan/piece respectively, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/piece from last week. The silicon wafer market continued to operate weakly, with the actual transaction center moving down slightly and lacking effective support [27] - **Battery Cells**: As of March 27, 2026, M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were quoted at 0.39, 0.39, 0.39 and 0.39 yuan/watt respectively, a decrease of 0.02, 0.02, 0.02 and 0.015 yuan/watt from last week. The transaction price of the battery cell market continued to decline. Although leading enterprises still maintained prices, second - and third - tier enterprises sold at reduced prices, and low - price supplies affected the overall price [31] - **Components**: As of March 27, 2026, 182 single - sided TOPCon, 210 single - sided TOPCon, 182 double - sided TOPCon and 210 double - sided TOPCon were quoted at 0.79, 0.805, 0.79 and 0.805 yuan/watt respectively, unchanged from last week. The component market was generally stable, with few transactions, and there was an expectation of price reduction in the future [34] - **Organic Silicon**: As of March 27, 2026, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 14,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week. The start - up rate of organic silicon enterprises decreased slightly, and procurement became more cautious [37] - **Aluminum Alloys**: As of March 27, 2026, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 23,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 300 yuan/ton from last week. The start - up of aluminum alloy enterprises was supported, but the incremental pull was limited [41]
多晶硅:关注5月底集中注销行情:工业硅:区间震荡格局,上方空间仍有限
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-29 09:22
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The industrial silicon market shows a range - bound pattern with limited upside potential. The market should focus on the upstream resumption rhythm. The 4 - 5 month period is a supply - demand destocking pattern, which supports the bottom of the market. However, the hedging pressure of Xinjiang and Southwest factories may limit the upside. The expected trading range for next week is 8300 - 8800 yuan/ton [6][7]. - The polysilicon market is weak. Attention should be paid to the impact of the concentrated cancellation at the end of May. The supply is increasing while the demand is weak. The market may continue to decline, and the expected trading range for next week is 32000 - 37000 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - The industrial silicon mainstream consumption reference prices in East China, Huangpu Port, Kunming, and Tianjin Port have remained relatively stable from March 10 - 27, 2026. For example, the Si5530 price in East China was 9200 yuan/ton for most days during this period [10]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - Supply: Upstream resumption is slow. The start - up rate this week is flat compared to last week. Factories in Southwest China are resuming production in small quantities, and factories in Xinjiang have no new start - up plans after resumption. The cost in the dry season in Southwest China is about 10000 yuan/ton (converted to the futures market), and about 9000 yuan/ton or more in the wet season. The current futures price does not provide a suitable hedging position for Southwest manufacturers [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory increased by 0.7 million tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 0.67 million tons, with the overall industry inventory remaining flat [3][12]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - Supply: The weekly production of polysilicon has increased month - on - month. There will be production capacity resumption from April to May, bringing supply increments. The current factory inventory is about 340,000 tons, and the overall industry inventory is about 500,000 tons, close to 5 months of consumption, at a relatively high level. The average full cost is about 45,000 yuan/ton, and the cash cost is about 35,000 yuan/ton [4]. - Demand: The silicon wafer production schedule has decreased week - on - week. The cancellation of export tax rebates has ended the rush - export market, and domestic demand has not improved significantly. Although European orders have increased temporarily, there is no obvious continuity. As it approaches the end of May, the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts will put pressure on the market [5]. 3.4 Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Silicone - Supply: The weekly production of DMC has increased month - on - month, and most silicone factories have resumption plans. - Demand: The downstream demand is weak, and product prices have not increased. The inventory of silicone has been destocked, and the apparent demand has increased slightly month - on - month. The sustainability of demand needs attention [3]. 3.5 Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloys - The price of aluminum alloys has been continuously falling, the demand market has increased slowly, and most are in a wait - and - see state. The overseas demand has not improved, and due to stricter overseas traceability requirements, the purchase of Xinjiang silicon is restricted [3].
工业硅&多晶硅周报:工业硅检验预期兑现,预计震荡为主;多晶硅延续震荡寻底-20260328
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2026-03-28 14:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend. The supply - side production rhythm is stable, while the demand side is weak, with insufficient price - driving power from demand improvement, and the price weakness restrains the enthusiasm for enterprise复产. The cost support has not collapsed significantly, and the industrial self - discipline expectations have been limitedly fulfilled, so the price range is not fully opened [16]. - Polysilicon continues to be in a negative feedback adjustment state. Factory inventories remain high, downstream restocking willingness is low, and actual transaction prices are falling, intensifying the weak atmosphere. The negative feedback from downstream silicon wafers and battery cells is transmitted upstream. The futures price is in a smooth downward trend and is expected to continue to oscillate and seek a bottom. It is recommended to wait and see, and be cautious about left - side layout [18]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation 3.1.1. Demand - Polysilicon weekly output is 19,400 tons, showing a slight decline [14]. - DMC output is 42,900 tons, with a week - on - week increase of 1,400 tons. In February, DMC output was 163,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,600 tons [14]. - From January to February 2025, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 2.765 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 274,000 tons or 11.0% [14]. - From January to February 2025, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 113,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19,400 tons or 20.77% [14]. 3.1.2. Inventory As of March 27, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory was 544,400 tons. Among them, the factory inventory was 249,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons; the market inventory was 183,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons; the registered warehouse receipt inventory was 111,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,000 tons [14]. 3.1.3. Price and Cost - As of March 27, 2026, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - passing) industrial silicon in the East China region was 9,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,600 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,800 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The futures main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,625 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 170 yuan/ton. The 553 (non - oxygen - passing) had a premium of 525 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 5.74%; the 421 had a premium of 175 yuan/ton over the main contract, with a basis rate of 1.99% [15]. - According to Baichuan Yingfu data, the average cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,545 yuan/ton, 9,712 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 8,800 yuan/ton in Sichuan, and 8,994 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [15]. 3.1.4. Supply The weekly output of industrial silicon was 67,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons. In February, the output of industrial silicon was 237,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 82,200 tons. The cumulative output from January to February was 558,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27,800 tons or 4.74% [15]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market 3.2.1. Industrial Silicon As of March 27, 2026, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - passing) industrial silicon in the East China region was 9,150 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,600 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,800 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The futures main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,625 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 170 yuan/ton. The 553 (non - oxygen - passing) had a premium of 525 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 5.74%; the 421 had a premium of 175 yuan/ton over the main contract, with a basis rate of 1.99% [23]. 3.2.2. Polysilicon As of March 27, 2026, the average price of N - type re -投料 of polysilicon was 39.75 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 3.75 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 39 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 3 yuan/kg. The futures main contract (PS2605) closed at 35,680 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2,085 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 4,070 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 10.24% [26]. 3.3. Industrial Silicon 3.3.1. Total Output As of March 27, 2026, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 67,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 100 tons. In February, the output of industrial silicon was 237,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 82,200 tons. The cumulative output from January to February was 558,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27,800 tons or 4.74% [31]. 3.3.2. Output in Main Producing Areas The report provides historical output data of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu, but does not mention the latest output data of these regions other than the overall output [33][35][38]. 3.3.3. Production Cost - As of March 27, 2026, the electricity price in the main producing areas remained unchanged week - on - week, and the silicon stone price remained stable week - on - week [44]. - The price of silicon coal remained stable compared with before the holiday. The average cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,545 yuan/ton, 9,712 yuan/ton in Yunnan, 8,800 yuan/ton in Sichuan, and 8,994 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [47]. 3.3.4. Visible Inventory As of March 27, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory was 544,400 tons. Among them, the factory inventory was 249,600 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,500 tons; the market inventory was 183,500 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons; the registered warehouse receipt inventory was 111,400 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3,000 tons [50]. 3.4. Polysilicon 3.4.1. Output As of March 27, 2026, the weekly output of polysilicon was 19,400 tons, showing a slight decline. In February, the output of polysilicon was 77,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 23,800 tons; the cumulative output from January to February was 177,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.63% [55]. 3.4.2. Operating Rate and Scheduled Production In February, the operating rate of polysilicon was 29.11%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.95 percentage points. It is expected that the output in March will be 84,900 tons, a slight month - on - month increase [58]. 3.4.3. Inventory As of March 27, 2026, the factory inventory of polysilicon was 381,600 tons according to Baichuan Yingfu's statistics, and 332,000 tons according to SMM's statistics [61]. 3.4.4. Cost and Profit As of March 27, 2026, the production cost of polysilicon was 44,189.79 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was - 5,663.47 yuan/ton [64]. 3.4.5. Downstream Industries - **Silicon Wafers**: As of March 27, 2026, the weekly output of silicon wafers was 11.38 GW, showing a slight decline. In February, the output of silicon wafers was 44.27 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 1.66 GW; the cumulative output from January to February was 90.20 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 4.37%. The inventory was 26.98 GW, showing a week - on - week decrease. It is predicted that the output in March will be 49.01 GW, a month - on - month increase [67][70]. - **Battery Cells**: In February, the output of battery cells was 37.09 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 4.35 GW; the cumulative output from January to February was 78.53 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 11.98%. The operating rate in February was 38.06%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.46 percentage points. As of March 27, 2026, the inventory of photovoltaic battery export factories was 6.79 GW, showing a week - on - week increase. It is expected that the output in March will be 46.36 GW, a significant month - on - month increase [76][79]. - **Components**: In February, the output of components was 29.3 GW, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9 GW; the cumulative output from January to February was 64.5 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 13.77%. The operating rate in February was 28.44%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.73 percentage points. As of March 27, 2026, the finished product inventory of photovoltaic components was 28.9 GW, showing a slight week - on - week increase. It is expected that the output in March will be 41.39 GW, a significant month - on - month increase [84][87]. 3.5. Organic Silicon 3.5.1. Output As of March 27, 2026, the output of DMC was 42,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,400 tons. In February, the output of DMC was 163,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 25,600 tons [94]. 3.5.2. Price and Profit As of March 27, 2026, the average price of organic silicon was 14,050 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The gross profit of DMC was 428.75 yuan/ton [97]. 3.5.3. Inventory As of March 27, 2026, the DMC inventory was 47,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,300 tons [100]. 3.6. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Exports 3.6.1. Aluminum Alloy - As of March 27, 2026, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 24,020 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 360 yuan/ton; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 24,420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 240 yuan/ton. From January to February 2025, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 2.765 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 274,000 tons or 11.0% [105]. - As of March 27, 2026, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 55%, and the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 59.5% [108]. 3.6.2. Exports From January to February 2025, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 113,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 19,400 tons or 20.77% [111].
多晶硅:供需走弱,现货价格下跌:工业硅:关注成本端变动
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-22 09:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - Industrial silicon: The inventory increased slightly this week. The supply side is affected by electricity price changes, and there is no further increase. The demand side maintains a rigid pattern. The 3 - 4 months are in a supply - demand destocking pattern, which supports the bottom of the market. Considering the hedging pressure of upstream factories, the upside space is limited, but the downside space is supported by funds. It is recommended to buy at low levels, and the expected trading range next week is 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton [3][6][7] - Polysilicon: The market is in a weak pattern. Supply increases while demand weakens. It is in a high - inventory destocking state. The price center will decline in the early stage of destocking. The pressure of warehouse receipts near the end of May will also affect the market. The expected trading range next week is 35000 - 42000 yuan/ton [4][6][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - The report provides the reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses of industrial silicon from March 4 to March 20, 2026, including the prices of Si5530, Si4210, and Si3303 [10] 3.2 Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - Supply: The upstream resumption of production is less than expected. The start - up rate increased slightly this week, mainly from the resumption of production in southwestern factories. Xinjiang factories have no new start - up plans for the time being. The cost in the dry season in the southwest is 10000 - 10500 yuan/ton (converted to the futures market) [3] - Inventory: This week, the social inventory increased by 0.1 million tons, the factory inventory increased by 0.07 million tons, and the overall industry inventory increased by 0.17 million tons. Attention should be paid to the registration of futures warehouse receipts [3] - The report also presents multiple charts, including the social inventory, factory inventory, monthly start - up rate, monthly output, profit calculation, export and import volume, trade - link inventory - to - sales ratio of industrial silicon, as well as the prices of raw materials such as silica, petroleum coke, washed coking coal, charcoal, and electrodes, and the electricity prices in major production areas [12][13][15] 3.3 Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - Supply: The weekly output increased slightly this month, and there is also a resumption of silicon material production capacity, which will bring an increase in supply. The current factory inventory is about 350,000 tons, and the overall industry inventory is about 500,000 tons, close to 5 months of consumption, at a relatively high level [4] - Demand: The silicon wafer production schedule decreased week - on - week. The continuous decline in silicon wafer prices affects the psychological purchase price of silicon materials. After the end of the export rush due to the cancellation of photovoltaic tax rebates in mid - March, the domestic market has not improved significantly. Although European orders have increased this week, it is a short - term phenomenon. The overall photovoltaic demand is expected to be weak [4][5] - The report includes charts on the start - up rate, import and export volume, spot price, production volume and year - on - year change, profit calculation of the polysilicon industry, as well as the export volume of monocrystalline silicon wafers, domestic photovoltaic monthly new installed capacity, and new photovoltaic grid - connected capacity [20][21][22] 3.4 Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Organic Silicon - The report provides charts on the average price trend, monthly start - up rate, production volume and monthly year - on - year change, factory inventory, export volume and year - on - year change, and profit calculation of domestic DMC [24][26] 3.5 Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloy - The report presents charts on the price seasonality, monthly start - up rate, average profit calculation of the recycled aluminum industry, and the seasonality of domestic automobile monthly sales [26][28]
工业硅&多晶硅周报 2026/03/14:工业硅成本支撑,震荡为主;多晶硅重心下移,偏弱运行-20260314
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2026-03-14 13:34
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate under cost support. The supply side shows little change in production, with a slight increase in Xinjiang and low - level operation in the Southwest. The demand side is characterized by slow growth in polysilicon, stable DMC production, and a slight increase in the silicon - aluminum alloy开工率. Overall, it presents a situation of weak supply and demand [16]. - Polysilicon has a weak fundamental situation with price pressure. Slow inventory removal in the silicon wafer segment and lower - than - expected downstream enterprise开工率 lead to a negative feedback on the upstream silicon material segment. With a slight increase in production, inventory pressure further increases, and the spot price decline has limited support for the futures market. It is expected to be under pressure and oscillate in the short term [18]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1. Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Demand** - Polysilicon weekly output is 19,600 tons, with a slight increase [14]. - DMC output is 41,900 tons, a decrease of 100 tons compared to the previous week. In February, DMC output was 163,700 tons, a decrease of 25,600 tons compared to the previous month [14]. - From January to December 2025, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 19.297 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.156 million tons or 19.55% [14]. - From January to December 2025, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 708,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13,500 tons or 1.94% [14]. - **Inventory** - As of March 13, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory was 547,200 tons. Factory inventory was 254,900 tons, a decrease of 14,300 tons; market inventory was 182,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; registered warehouse receipt inventory was 109,900 tons, a decrease of 9,600 tons [14]. - **Price and Cost** - As of March 13, 2026, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - passing) industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,600 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The 553 (non - oxygen - passing) had a premium of 525 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 5.71%; the 421 had a premium of 125 yuan/ton over the main contract, with a basis rate of 1.42% [15]. - The average cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,545 yuan/ton, 9,712 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 8,994 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [15]. - **Supply** - The weekly output of industrial silicon was 66,300 tons, an increase of 300 tons compared to the previous week. In February, the output was 237,900 tons, a decrease of 82,200 tons compared to the previous month. The cumulative output from January to February was 558,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27,800 tons or 4.74% [15]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Industrial Silicon** - As of March 13, 2026, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygen - passing) industrial silicon in East China was 9,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,600 yuan/ton, with a converted futures price of 8,800 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The futures main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The 553 (non - oxygen - passing) had a premium of 525 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 5.71%; the 421 had a premium of 125 yuan/ton over the main contract, with a basis rate of 1.42% [23]. - **Polysilicon** - As of March 13, 2026, the average price of N - type polysilicon re - feedstock was 46 yuan/kg, a decrease of 3 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 43.5 yuan/kg, a decrease of 3.5 yuan/kg. The futures main contract (PS2605) closed at 42,040 yuan/ton, an increase of 925 yuan/ton. The basis of the main contract was 3,960 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 8.61% [26]. 3.3. Industrial Silicon - **Total Output** - As of March 13, 2026, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 66,300 tons, an increase of 300 tons compared to the previous week. In February, the output was 237,900 tons, a decrease of 82,200 tons compared to the previous month. The cumulative output from January to February was 558,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27,800 tons or 4.74% [31]. - **Main Production Areas Output** - Data on the output of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu are presented in graphs [33][35][38]. - **Production Cost** - As of March 13, 2026, the electricity price in the main production areas remained unchanged, and the silicon stone price was stable. The silicon coal price was stable compared to before the holiday. The average cost of industrial silicon in Xinjiang was 8,545 yuan/ton, 9,712 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 8,994 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [44][47]. - **Explicit Inventory** - As of March 13, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory was 547,200 tons. Factory inventory was 254,900 tons, a decrease of 14,300 tons; market inventory was 182,500 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons; registered warehouse receipt inventory was 109,900 tons, a decrease of 9,600 tons [50]. 3.4. Polysilicon - **Output** - As of March 13, 2026, the weekly output of polysilicon was 19,600 tons, with a slight increase. In February, the output was 77,000 tons, a decrease of 23,800 tons compared to the previous month. The cumulative output from January to February was 177,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.63% [55]. - **开工率 and Scheduled Production** - In February, the polysilicon开工率 was 29.11%, a decrease of 4.95 percentage points. It is expected that the output in March will be 84,900 tons, with a slight increase [58]. - **Inventory** - As of March 13, 2026, the polysilicon factory inventory was 372,900 tons, and the SMM - caliber inventory was 357,000 tons [61]. - **Cost and Profit** - As of March 13, 2026, the production cost of polysilicon was 44,189.79 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was - 1,663.47 yuan/ton, turning into a loss [64]. - **Silicon Wafer** - The weekly output of silicon wafers was 11.98 GW, with a slight increase. In February, the output was 44.27 GW, a decrease of 1.66 GW. The cumulative output from January to February was 90.20 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 4.37%. The silicon wafer inventory was 28.35 GW, a decrease. It is predicted that the output in March will be 49.01 GW, an increase [67][70]. - **Battery Chip** - In February, the output of battery chips was 37.09 GW, a decrease of 4.35 GW. The cumulative output from January to February was 78.53 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 11.98%. The开工率 in February was 38.06%, a decrease of 4.46 percentage points. The inventory was 6.98 GW, a decrease. It is expected that the output in March will be 46.36 GW, a significant increase [75][78]. - **Component** - In February, the output of components was 29.3 GW, a decrease of 5.9 GW. The开工率 was 28.44%, a decrease of 5.73 percentage points. The cumulative output from January to February was 64.5 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 13.77%. The component inventory was 27.7 GW, a slight decrease. It is expected that the output in March will be 41.39 GW, a significant increase [83][86]. 3.5. Organic Silicon - **Output** - As of March 13, 2026, the DMC output was 41,900 tons, a decrease of 100 tons compared to the previous week. In February, the output was 163,700 tons, a decrease of 25,600 tons compared to the previous month [93]. - **Price and Profit** - As of March 13, 2026, the average price of organic silicon was 14,150 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged. The DMC gross profit was 1,350 yuan/ton [96]. - **Inventory** - As of March 13, 2026, the DMC inventory was 46,100 tons, an increase of 1,200 tons compared to the previous week [99]. 3.6. Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Export - **Aluminum Alloy** - As of March 13, 2026, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 25,290 yuan/ton, an increase of 720 yuan/ton; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 25,210 yuan/ton, an increase of 750 yuan/ton. From January to December 2025, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 19.297 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.156 million tons or 19.55%. The开工率 of primary aluminum alloy was 53%, and the开工率 of recycled aluminum alloy was 58.8% [105][108]. - **Export** - From January to December 2025, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 708,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13,500 tons or 1.94% [111].
工业硅多晶硅周报:工业硅大厂成本上移,多晶硅厂家降价成交落地-20260309
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-09 05:07
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main trading logic of industrial silicon is that the cost center has shifted upwards, but demand lacks elasticity, and there is no sustainable expectation for supply improvement. The increase in electricity prices in Xinjiang has led to higher costs for large manufacturers, and the slowdown of their restart plans is expected to improve the supply - demand situation in March. The current disk price valuation has been gradually repaired, but there is no obvious supply - demand driver. It is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [44]. - The main trading logic of polysilicon is that the market outlook is pessimistic, and the spot price has collapsed. Although the industry association encourages self - discipline and price limits, the low - price sales of some manufacturers have reduced market confidence. In March, the increase in the production of batteries and components is expected to improve the supply - demand situation in the industrial chain, but the high - inventory pressure and weak domestic demand make the subsequent total demand pessimistic. Polysilicon is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [50]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Industrial Silicon, Polysilicon Overview and Views - **Weekly Review (March 2 - March 6, 2026)** - **Prices**: The prices of 553, 99 - silicon, and 421 industrial silicon all decreased, with the 553 price at Tianjin Port dropping by 1.6% week - on - week, the 99 - silicon price in Xinjiang dropping by 200 yuan, and the 421 price in Yunnan dropping by 1.0% week - on - week [7]. - **Costs**: The cash costs in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Xinjiang are 21181 yuan, 11559 yuan, and 10124 yuan respectively. The increase in electricity prices in Xinjiang has led to an increase in the costs of large manufacturers [7]. - **Profits**: The cash profits in Yunnan, Sichuan, and Xinjiang are all negative, and the profit margins have decreased [7]. - **Supply**: The weekly production of industrial silicon increased by 3.2% to 71,859 tons, with Xinjiang's production increasing by 6.2%. Some factories in Xinjiang and Yunnan have restarted production, but there are also plans for production cuts and overhauls [7]. - **Polysilicon**: The price of N - type polysilicon dense material decreased by 8.0% to 49 yuan/kg, the average cost decreased by 2.3%, and the average profit decreased by 52.9%. The weekly production decreased by 6.5% to 1.88 million tons [10]. - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of N - type 183 silicon wafers decreased, the cost decreased, and the profit became more negative. The weekly production increased by 10.2% to 11.08 GW, and the inventory decreased by 3.5% [10]. - **Organic Silicon**: The DMC cost increased by 2.9%, the profit decreased by 2.7%, the weekly production increased by 2.4% to 42,000 tons, and the inventory increased by 6.9% [10]. - **Aluminum Alloys**: The silicon consumption increased by 4.9% [10]. - **Exports**: The export volume increased by 7.6%, but the export market is still cold [10]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of industrial silicon decreased by 1.17% to 74.89 million tons, and the inventory available time decreased by 7.2% [10]. 2. Industrial Silicon Supply - **Prices/Spreads/Costs/Profits** - **Prices**: The prices of 553, 421, and 99 - silicon have shown different trends over time [58][62][67]. - **Costs**: The cash costs of industrial silicon in different regions such as Yunnan, Sichuan, and Xinjiang have changed over time [85]. - **Profits**: The cash profits of industrial silicon in different regions are mostly negative [85]. - **Industrial Silicon Supply** - **Monthly Data**: The monthly production and capacity utilization of industrial silicon in different regions have changed over time [100][102][105]. - **Weekly Data**: The weekly production of industrial silicon in different regions has also changed, with some regions showing increases and others remaining stable [116]. - **Industrial Silicon Inventory/Supply - Demand Gap** - **Inventory**: The total inventory of industrial silicon (including social and factory inventories) has decreased, and the inventory available time has also decreased [120]. 3. Industrial Silicon Demand - Polysilicon - **Polysilicon Supply Analysis** - **Prices/Spreads/Costs/Profits** - **Prices**: The prices of polysilicon and related products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have changed over time [129][142]. - **Costs and Profits**: The production costs and profits of polysilicon have changed, with the profit margin decreasing [131][132]. - **Polysilicon Supply** - The production capacity, production, and开工 rate of polysilicon have changed over time [133][134][135]. - **Polysilicon Demand Analysis** - **Prices/Spreads/Costs/Profits** - The prices, costs, and profits of polysilicon - related downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, and components have changed [144][145]. - **Supply - Demand of Silicon Wafers/Battery Cells/Components/Installations** - The production,开工 rate, and demand of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and solar power installations have changed over time [147][148][150]. - **Polysilicon - Photovoltaic Chain Inventory Analysis** - The inventories of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components in different regions and at different times have changed [167][168][169]. 4. Industrial Silicon Demand - Organic Silicon - **Organic Silicon Price Spreads/Cost Profits** - **Prices**: The price of the organic silicon intermediate DMC and its price transmission relationships have changed over time [176][177]. - **Costs and Profits**: The production costs and profits of DMC have changed [179][180]. - **Organic Silicon Supply/Demand/Inventory** - **Supply**: The production capacity, production, and开工 rate of DMC have changed over time [181][183][185]. - **Demand**: The weekly apparent consumption of DMC has changed [188]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory and inventory available time of DMC have changed [190][191][192]. 5. Industrial Silicon Demand Analysis - Aluminum Alloys - The monthly and cumulative production of aluminum alloys have changed over time, and the silicon consumption has increased [195][196]. 6. Industrial Silicon Demand Analysis - Exports - **Internal - External Price Spreads**: The price spread of metal silicon 553 between China and South Korea has changed over time [198][199]. - **Export Volume**: The monthly and cumulative export volume of metal silicon have changed, with an increase in the export volume [202][203]. 7. Industrial Silicon Demand Analysis - Total Demand - The weekly apparent demand of industrial silicon and the inventory available time have changed over time [206][207][208].
工业硅:上游复产,关注市场情绪扰动,多晶硅:关注市场反内卷情绪
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-01 10:00
Report Title - The report is titled "Industrial Silicon: Upstream Resumption, Pay Attention to Market Sentiment Disturbance" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Report Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the upstream resumption rhythm. Although the supply is expected to increase in mid - early March, the downward space of the disk may be limited by funds. It is recommended to look for buying points at low positions, with the expected disk range next week being 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton [6][7] - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the change of spot prices. It is in a state of high - inventory destocking, and the price center of gravity may decline in the early stage of destocking. However, the disk bottom has support, and it is not recommended to participate in futures, but options can be considered if participating. The expected disk range next week is 45000 - 51000 yuan/ton [7] Summary of Each Section 1. Market Data - It provides the reference prices of industrial silicon in mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices in three major ports/warehouses from January 30, 2026, to February 27, 2026 [10] 2. Industrial Silicon Supply Side - Smelting and Raw Material Ends - Inventory: This week, the social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.3 million tons, and the factory inventory decreased by 0.18 million tons, with the overall industry inventory increasing by 0.48 million tons. The subsequent registration of futures warehouse receipts needs attention [3][12] - Production: The market focuses on the resumption rhythm of upstream silicon plants in mid - early March. This week, the monthly opening rate and monthly output of industrial silicon are shown in the charts, and the production in Xinjiang is expected to increase with the resumption of 15 furnaces in mid - early March [3][14] - Cost: The cost of industrial silicon in the southwest region during the dry season is calculated to be 10000 - 10500 yuan/ton (converted to the disk). The prices of raw materials such as silica, petroleum coke, washed coking coal, charcoal, and electrodes, as well as the electricity prices in main production areas, are presented in the charts [3][15][19] 3. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Polysilicon - Market situation: This week, the polysilicon disk showed a weak shock, and the upstream quotation may gradually loosen under high - inventory pressure. The market focuses on whether large polysilicon manufacturers will resume production in March [2][4] - Supply: The weekly output decreased, and the inventory of silicon material manufacturers decreased. The overall industry inventory is about 500,000 tons, close to 5 months of consumption, and is at a high level. The average full - cost is about 45,000 - 46,000 yuan/ton [4] - Demand: The silicon wafer production schedule increased week - on - week. However, the continuous decline in silicon wafer prices affects the psychological purchase price of silicon materials. After mid - early March, the demand is expected to gradually decline [4][5] 4. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Organic Silicon - Market situation: This week, the weekly production of organic silicon increased slightly, and some factories plan to resume normal production. The downstream purchase is light, and the inventory is increasing [3] - Relevant data: The average price, monthly opening rate, monthly output, factory inventory, export volume, and profit of DMC are presented in the charts [25][27] 5. Industrial Silicon Consumption Side - Downstream Aluminum Alloy - Market situation: After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work of aluminum alloy ingot manufacturers is limited, with few inquiries and purchases. It is expected that rigid - demand orders will be released after the Lantern Festival [3] - Relevant data: The price, monthly opening rate, average profit of recycled aluminum, and the monthly sales volume of domestic automobiles are presented in the charts [27][28]
多晶硅:关注市场反内卷情绪:工业硅:上游复产,关注市场情绪扰动
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-01 07:52
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the upstream resumption rhythm. Although the supply decreased marginally due to factory production cuts, there is an expectation of resumption in mid - early March, which will bring supply increments. The overall downstream procurement of industrial silicon remains stable, and considering the anti - involution trend, the downside space of the disk is limited. It is recommended to look for buying points at low levels, with the expected disk range next week being 8200 - 8800 yuan/ton [6][7] - For polysilicon, focus on the spot price. It is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply is shrinking due to the dry season and high inventory, and the demand will decline after the end of the export rush. The price will decline in the early stage of destocking, but the bottom of the disk is supported by the anti - involution policy. It is not recommended to participate in futures, and options can be considered. The expected disk range next week is 45000 - 51000 yuan/ton [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - The report provides the reference prices of mainstream consumption areas and the transaction prices of three major ports/warehouses for industrial silicon from January 30, 2026, to February 27, 2026, including different grades such as Si5530, Si4210, and Si3303 [10] 3.2工业硅供给端——冶炼端、原料端 - In terms of inventory, the social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.3 million tons, and the factory inventory increased by 0.18 million tons this week, with a total industry inventory increase of 0.48 million tons. Attention should be paid to the registration of futures warehouse receipts [3][12] - Regarding production, the market is concerned about the resumption rhythm of upstream silicon plants in mid - early March. The开工 rate increased slightly this week. In the southwest region, it has entered the dry season, and the cost is 10000 - 10500 yuan/ton (converted to the disk). In Xinjiang, some factories are expected to resume production of 15 furnaces in mid - early March, which will significantly increase the supply [3] 3.3工业硅消费端——下游多晶硅 - In terms of price, the polysilicon spot price may be loose under high - inventory pressure. The disk was weakly volatile this week, closing at 46495 yuan/ton [2] - Regarding supply, the weekly output decreased this week. Silicon material manufacturers reduced production passively to relieve high - inventory pressure. The current factory inventory is about 340,000 tons, and the overall industry inventory is about 500,000 tons, close to 5 months of consumption [4] - In terms of demand, the silicon wafer production increased week - on - week. However, the continuous decline in silicon wafer prices will affect the psychological purchase price of silicon materials. After mid - early March, the demand is expected to decline [4][5] 3.4工业硅消费端——下游有机硅 - In terms of price, the average price of domestic DMC has been fluctuating. - Regarding production, the weekly production of organic silicon increased slightly this week, and some factories plan to resume normal production. The inventory of organic silicon has increased, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of post - festival demand recovery [3] 3.5工业硅消费端——下游铝合金 - After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work of aluminum alloy ingot manufacturers is limited, with few inquiries and purchases. The demand market increases slowly, and it is expected that rigid - demand orders will be released after the Lantern Festival. The overseas demand in the export market has not improved [3]
工业硅预期供需双增,弱势运行;多晶硅承压运行
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2026-02-28 14:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Industrial silicon is expected to see an increase in both supply and demand, but will operate weakly. In the short term, the production increase is limited, and although the demand side is expected to improve marginally, the supply side also has a small incremental expectation in March, presenting a pattern of increasing supply and demand [16]. - Polysilicon is under pressure. The factory inventory remains at a high level with limited destocking. The silicon wafer segment is in a state of low prices and high inventory, and the actual feedback to the silicon material segment is poor. The policy is expected to support the price, and the futures market is expected to operate under pressure [20]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Demand** - Polysilicon weekly output is 19,000 tons, basically flat month - on - month. DMC output is 41,300 tons, an increase of 600 tons month - on - month. In February, DMC output was 163,700 tons, a decrease of 25,600 tons month - on - month. From January to December 2025, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 19.297 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.156 million tons or 19.55%. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 708,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13,500 tons or 1.94% [14]. - **Inventory** - As of February 27, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory was 566,600 tons, including 276,100 tons in factory inventory (an increase of 8,800 tons month - on - month), 186,500 tons in market inventory (a decrease of 500 tons month - on - month), and 104,100 tons in registered warehouse receipts inventory [14]. - **Price** - As of February 27, 2026, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China was 9,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton month - on - month; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,600 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton month - on - month. The futures main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,395 yuan/ton, flat compared with before the holiday. The 553 (non - oxygenated) had a premium of 755 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 8.25%; the 421 had a premium of 405 yuan/ton over the main contract, with a basis rate of 4.60% [15]. - **Cost** - The average cost in Xinjiang was 8,537.50 yuan/ton, 9,700.00 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 8,970.00 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [15]. - **Supply** - The weekly output of industrial silicon was 65,500 tons, an increase of 2,700 tons month - on - month. In January, the output of industrial silicon was 320,100 tons, a decrease of 35,800 tons month - on - month and an increase of 21,400 tons or 7.18% year - on - year [15]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Industrial Silicon** - As of February 27, 2026, the spot price of 553 (non - oxygenated) industrial silicon in East China was 9,150 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton month - on - month; the spot price of 421 industrial silicon was 9,600 yuan/ton, with a discounted futures price of 8,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton month - on - month. The futures main contract (SI2605) closed at 8,395 yuan/ton, flat compared with before the holiday. The 553 (non - oxygenated) had a premium of 755 yuan/ton over the futures main contract, with a basis rate of 8.25%; the 421 had a premium of 405 yuan/ton over the main contract, with a basis rate of 4.60% [25]. - **Polysilicon** - As of February 27, 2026, the average price of N - type re -投料 polysilicon was 52 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.25 yuan/kg month - on - month; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.25 yuan/kg month - on - month. The futures main contract (PS2605) closed at 46,495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,810 yuan/ton month - on - month. The basis of the main contract was 5,505 yuan/ton, with a basis rate of 10.59% [28]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon - **Total Output** - As of February 27, 2026, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 65,500 tons, an increase of 2,700 tons month - on - month. In January, the output of industrial silicon was 320,100 tons, a decrease of 35,800 tons month - on - month and an increase of 21,400 tons or 7.18% year - on - year [33]. - **Output in Main Production Areas** - Relevant data on the output of industrial silicon in Sichuan, Yunnan, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu are presented in the form of graphs [35][37][40]. - **Production Cost** - As of February 27, 2026, the electricity price in the main production areas was flat month - on - month, and the silica price was stable month - on - month. The average cost in Xinjiang was 8,537.50 yuan/ton, 9,700.00 yuan/ton in Yunnan, and 8,970.00 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia [46][49]. - **Visible Inventory** - As of February 27, 2026, the industrial silicon inventory was 566,600 tons, including 276,100 tons in factory inventory (an increase of 8,800 tons month - on - month), 186,500 tons in market inventory (a decrease of 500 tons month - on - month), and 104,100 tons in registered warehouse receipts inventory [52]. 3.4 Polysilicon - **Output** - As of February 27, 2026, the weekly output of polysilicon was 19,000 tons, basically flat month - on - month. In February, the output of polysilicon was 77,000 tons, a decrease of 23,800 tons month - on - month; the cumulative output from January to February was 177,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.63% [57]. - **Capacity Utilization and Scheduled Production** - The capacity utilization rate of polysilicon in February was 29.11%, a decrease of 4.95 percentage points month - on - month. It is expected that the output in March will be 84,900 tons, a slight increase month - on - month [60]. - **Inventory** - As of February 27, 2026, the factory inventory of polysilicon was 345,900 tons, and the inventory was 344,000 tons [63]. - **Cost and Profit** - As of February 27, 2026, the production cost of polysilicon was 43,763.47 yuan/ton, and the gross profit was 4,736.53 yuan/ton [66]. - **Silicon Wafer** - The weekly output of silicon wafers was 11.35GW, a slight increase month - on - month. In January, the output of silicon wafers was 45.93GW, an increase of 2.03GW month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 0.15%. The inventory of silicon wafers was 31.06GW, an increase month - on - month. It is predicted that the output in February will be 45.31GW, basically flat month - on - month [69][72]. - **Battery Cell** - In January, the output of battery cells was 41.44GW, a decrease of 5.32GW month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 14.01%. The capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic batteries in January was 42.52%, a decrease of 4.59 percentage points month - on - month. The inventory of photovoltaic battery export factories was 9.31GW, an increase month - on - month. It is expected that the output in February will be 36.7GW, a continued decrease month - on - month [78][81]. - **Module** - In February, the output of modules was 29.3GW, a decrease of 5.9GW month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of modules in February was 28.44%, a decrease of 5.73 percentage points month - on - month. The cumulative output from January to February was 64.5GW, a year - on - year decrease of 13.77%. The finished product inventory of photovoltaic modules was 24.5GW, a slight decrease month - on - month. It is expected that the output in March will be 41.39GW, a significant increase month - on - month [86][89]. 3.5 Organic Silicon - **Output** - As of February 27, 2026, the output of DMC was 41,300 tons, an increase of 600 tons month - on - month. In February, the output of DMC was 163,700 tons, a decrease of 25,600 tons month - on - month [96]. - **Price and Profit** - As of February 27, 2026, the average price of organic silicon was 13,900 yuan/ton, flat month - on - month. The gross profit of DMC was 2,033.75 yuan/ton [99]. - **Inventory** - As of February 27, 2026, the inventory of DMC was 46,800 tons, an increase of 2,600 tons month - on - month [102]. 3.6 Silicon - Aluminum Alloy and Exports - **Aluminum Alloy** - As of February 27, 2026, the price of primary aluminum alloy A356 was 23,560 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton month - on - month; the price of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 was 23,830 yuan/ton, an increase of 140 yuan/ton month - on - month. From January to December 2025, the cumulative output of aluminum alloy was 19.297 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.156 million tons or 19.55%. The capacity utilization rate of primary aluminum alloy was 55.8%, and the capacity utilization rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 53.1% [108][111]. - **Exports** - From January to December 2025, China's cumulative net export of industrial silicon was 708,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13,500 tons or 1.94% [114].
硅烷科技重组落地,股价短期承压
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2026-02-12 10:03
Group 1 - Core viewpoint: Silane Technology is undergoing significant changes due to the recent restructuring and industry environment shifts, which may enhance its long-term positioning in the market [2][4] Group 2 - Recent event: On February 12, 2026, China Pingmei Shenma Group and Henan Energy Group completed their merger, resulting in a new group with an asset scale of nearly 600 billion yuan and an annual revenue of approximately 300 billion yuan. Silane Technology, as one of the five A-share listed companies under this new group, will integrate into a dual business layout of "energy + functional materials," potentially improving resource efficiency and innovation through industry chain collaboration [2] Group 3 - Stock performance: On February 12, the company's stock closed at 10.25 yuan, down 0.87% for the day, with a turnover rate of 1.05% and a transaction amount of 29.76 million yuan. The cumulative decline over five days was 0.19%, indicating weaker short-term performance compared to the market (Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.05% during the same period). Technical analysis shows that the stock price has fallen below the moving average support, with fluctuations in the capital market [3] Group 4 - Industry policy and environment: As of February 6, reports indicated that silicon wafer prices had decreased by 4.5%-4.8% week-on-week (e.g., the average price of N-type G12 silicon wafers dropped to 1.45 yuan per piece), while downstream battery and module prices remained stable, reflecting weak demand that may suppress the profitability of silicon material companies [4]