2025 年 11月 23 日 香 商 临近注销期,关注近月 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 张 航 本周价格走势:工业硅盘面价格先涨后跌,现货价格上涨;多晶硅盘面先涨后跌,现货报价稳定 工业硅运行情况:本周工业硅盘面先涨后跌,周中市场交易有机硅股票好转带来的乐观预期,但周五受 宏观商品影响亦同步回落,周五收于 8960 元/吨。现货市场价格上涨，SMM 统计新疆 99 硅报价 9000 元/ 吨（环比+150),内蒙 99 硅报价 9150 元/吨(环比+50)。 多晶硅运行情况:本周多晶硅盘面先涨后跌,市场交易平台公司、政策等叙事,盘面再次上涨抬升,但 周五亦有所回落，周五盘面收于 53360 元/吨。多晶硅现货市场来看,上游报价持续坚挺,关注下游补库的 实际成交价格。 供需基本面:工业硅本周行业库存累库;多晶硅上游库存累库 88工业硅供给端，周度行业库存小幅累库。据咨询商统计，本周西南地区及新疆地区开工减少，甘肃开工 小增,整体周产环减。具体而言,西南地区10月底开始逐步减产,按照枯水期电价折算西南枯水期成本在 10000-10500元/吨,此将会带来进一步 ...

万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 工业硅情绪波动，多晶硅震荡博弈 工业硅&多晶硅周报 从业资格号：F03133967 2025/11/22 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 CONTENTS 目录 03 工业硅 06 硅铝合金及出口 产业链示意图 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 多晶硅 02 期现市场 05 有机硅 ◆ 需求： 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度要点小结 百川盈孚口径下多晶硅周度产量为2.75万吨，环比继续下降。 百川盈孚口径DMC库存4.38万吨，环比+0.17万吨。 1-10月，铝合金累计产量1576.00万吨，累计同比+254.20万吨或+19.23%。 1-10月，我国工业硅累计净出口59.80万吨，累计同比+0.97万吨或+1.66%。 ◆ 库存：百川盈孚统计口径工业硅库存66.01万吨，环比-1.86万吨。其中，工厂库存26.32万吨，环比-0.48万吨；市场库存18.50万吨，环比 +0.10万吨；已注册仓单库存21.19万吨，环比-1.48万吨。 ◆ 截至2025/11/21，华东地区553# ...

工业硅日报 工业硅&多晶硅日报（2025 年 11 月 21 日） 二、日度数据监测 | | 二、日度数据监测 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 分 | 项 | 2025/11/19 | 2025/11/20 | 涨 跌 | | | | | 工业硅 | | | | | 期货结算价（元/吨） | 主力 | 9390 | 9075 | -315 | | | | 近月 | 9390 | 9080 | -310 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(华东) | 9350 | 9350 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(黄埔港) | 9350 | 9350 | 0 | | | 不通氧553#现货价格 | 不通氧553#硅(天津港) | 9250 | 9300 | 50 | | | （元/吨） | 不通氧553#硅(昆明) | 9350 | 9350 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(四川) | 9050 | 9050 | 0 | | | | 不通氧553#硅(上海) | 9650 | 9700 | 50 | | | | 通氧553#硅(华 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月20日 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为9.1万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.4万吨，环比增长2.44%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为26.7万吨，处于低位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为56300吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为-156元/吨，处于亏 损状态，其综合开工率为72.18%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.21万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为410元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为669.5元/吨，再生铝开工率为60.6%，环比增加2.54%,处 于高位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧5 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为9.1万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.4万吨，环比增长2.44%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为26.7万吨，处于低位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为56300吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为-156元/吨，处于亏 损状态，其综合开工率为72.18%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.21万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为410元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为652.84元/吨，再生铝开工率为60.6%，环比增加2.54%, 处于高位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧 ...

11月10日，合盛硅业（证券代码：603260）发布公告，股东富达实业因自身资金需求，计划在2025年11 月14日至2026年2月13日期间，减持不超过2707万股，约占公司总股本的2.29%，占其所持比例的 100%。 其中通过集中竞价方式减持不超过1182.21万股（不超过总股本的1%），通过大宗交易方式减持不超过 1524.85万股（不超过总股本的1.29%）。以公告当日收盘价58.51元/股计算，本次套现金额约为15.84亿 元。 业绩方面，受主要产品销量、销售价格同比下降及光伏板块停工损失的影响，富达实业2025年前三季度 实现营业收入152.06亿元，同比下降25.35%；归母净利润为-3.21亿元，同比下降122.1%；扣非归母净利 润-2.71亿元，同比下降120.61%。 据了解，合盛硅业股份有限公司由宁波合盛集团于2005年投资成立，并于2017年在上交所主板成功上 市。合盛硅业在新疆、浙江、四川、云南、黑龙江等地设有数字化智造基地，在上海和海南拥有高新技 术研发中心，旗下主要涵盖能源、工业硅、有机硅、碳素、新材料、第三代半导体碳化硅、光伏全产业 链、储能等多元业务。 报告显示，富达实业 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月12日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | | 1万吨 ， | | 环比有所减少9 . | 00% 。 | | | | . | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8 | . | 2万吨 ， | 环比减少5 | 74% . . | 需求持续低迷 | . | | | | | | | | | 多晶硅库存为25 . | 9万吨 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月11日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 | | | | | 供给端来看 ， | 上周工业硅供应量为9 | . | 1万吨 ， | | 环比有所减少9 | 00% . | 。 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 需求端来看 ， | 上周工业硅需求为8 | . | 2万吨 ， | 环比减少5 | 74% . . | | 需求持续低迷 . | | | | | | | | 多晶硅库存为25 . | 9万吨 处于低位 ， | ...

万林新（联系人） 0755-23375162 wanlx@wkqh.cn 交易咨询号：Z0020771 工业硅企稳等待新变量，多晶硅延 续政策叙事 工业硅&多晶硅月报 从业资格号：F03133967 2025/11/07 陈张滢（黑色建材组） 从业资格号：F03098415 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 多晶硅 02 期现市场 05 有机硅 03 工业硅 06 硅铝合金及出口 产业链示意图 01 ◆ 库存：10月末，百川盈孚统计口径工业硅库存68.40万吨，维持高位。其中，工厂库存26.47万吨；市场库存18.30万吨；已注册仓单库存 23.63万吨。 ◆ 截至2025/10/31，华东地区553#（不通氧）工业硅现货报价9300元/吨，月环比持平；421#工业硅现货报价9700元/吨，折盘面价8900元/吨， 月环比持平。 ◆ 成本：据百川盈孚数据，10月末调研工业硅主产区成本中，新疆平均成本报8473.08元/吨（在产企业综合成本，下同）；云南地区报 9387.50元/吨；四川地区报9104.76元/吨。 ◆ 供给：2025年10月，百川盈孚口径下工业硅产量40.48万吨，环比+ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side has reduced production, demand recovery is at a low level, cost support has increased, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8920 - 9120 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production scheduling continues to decrease, overall demand shows continuous decline, cost support remains stable, and it is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52550 - 54160 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - **Supply - side**: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 100,000 tons, a 0.99% decrease from the previous week [6]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the demand was 87,000 tons, a 7.44% decrease from the previous week, and demand remains sluggish. Polysilicon inventory is 2.61 million tons, with silicon wafers, battery cells in loss, and components in a neutral profit state. Organic silicon inventory is 56,300 tons (low), with a production profit of - 520 yuan/ton (in loss), and a comprehensive开工 rate of 68.56% (unchanged from the previous week, lower than the historical average). Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 735,000 tons (high), with an import loss of 327 yuan/ton [6]. - **Cost - side**: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 3144 yuan/ton, and the cost support has increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On November 5th, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 280 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory is 558,000 tons, a 0.17% decrease from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 168,100 tons, a 0.24% increase; major port inventory is 124,000 tons, a 0.81% increase [6]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closes above MA20 [6]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and short positions are decreasing [6]. - **Expectation**: Supply - side production scheduling decreases, demand recovery is at a low level, cost is near the historical average, and cost support has increased. Industrial silicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8920 - 9120 [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - **Supply - side**: Last week, the polysilicon output was 28,200 tons, a 4.40% decrease from the previous week. The production scheduling for November is expected to be 120,100 tons, a 10.37% decrease from the previous month [8]. - **Demand - side**: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 14.24GW, a 3.32% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory was 189,300 tons, a 2.49% increase. Currently, silicon wafer production is in loss. In November, the production scheduling is 57.66GW, a 4.92% decrease from the previous month. In October, the battery cell output was 59.27GW, a 2.78% decrease from the previous month. Last week, the battery cell export factory inventory was 3.85GW, a 36.04% decrease. Currently, battery cell production is in loss. In November, the production scheduling is 58.68GW, a 0.99% decrease. In October, the component output was 48.1GW, a 3.60% decrease from the previous month. In November, the expected component output is 46.92GW, a 2.45% decrease. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease; the European monthly inventory is 28.1GW, a 5.70% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [8]. - **Cost - side**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,760 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,240 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On November 5th, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 1155 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory is 261,000 tons, a 1.16% increase from the previous week, at a neutral level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the price of the 01 contract closes above MA20 [8]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net long, and long positions are decreasing [8]. - **Expectation**: Supply - side production scheduling continues to decrease, demand for silicon wafers, battery cells, and components continues to decline, overall demand shows continuous decline, cost support remains stable, and polysilicon 2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52550 - 54160 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - The prices of some contracts have increased, such as the 01 contract price rising from 8885 to 9020, a 1.52% increase [15]. - The spot prices of different types of industrial silicon in East China remain mostly unchanged [15]. - The inventory of some regions and ports has changed, with social inventory decreasing slightly, and sample enterprise and major port inventories increasing [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of some contracts have decreased, such as the 01 contract price dropping from 53715 to 53355, a 0.67% decrease [17]. - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remain mostly unchanged [17]. - The weekly total inventory is 261,000 tons, a 1.16% increase from the previous week [17]. 3.3 Other Aspects - **Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends**: The report presents the historical trends of the basis of industrial silicon and the price spread between 421 and 553 [20]. - **Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon inventory, including delivery warehouses, ports, and sample enterprise inventories [25]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: It shows the historical trends of industrial silicon production, capacity utilization, and monthly production by specification [28][29]. - **Cost**: It shows the historical cost - profit trends of industrial silicon in sample regions [35]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: It presents the weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon and polysilicon [37][40][64]. - **Downstream Trends**: It details the price, production, inventory, and supply - demand balance trends of industrial silicon's downstream industries, including organic silicon, aluminum alloy, and polysilicon [43][51][61].