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瑞达期货锰硅硅铁产业日报-20260312
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2026-03-12 09:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The manganese - silicon industry has low operating rates, supply contraction, a slight recovery in demand, and inventory reduction. Although the high inventory and slow recovery of downstream demand put pressure on the fundamentals, the strong support from manganese ore and continuous geopolitical disturbances are expected to keep the futures price fluctuating with a slight upward trend [2]. - The silicon - iron industry's operating rate continues to decline, demand shows a slight recovery, and social inventory has dropped to a low level in the same period in recent years. With stable costs and support from macro - sentiment and geopolitical factors, it is expected to operate with a slight upward trend despite the relatively loose supply - demand situation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM (manganese - silicon) main contract closing price is 6,162.00 yuan/ton, up 46.00 yuan; SF (silicon - iron) main contract closing price is 5,922.00 yuan/ton, up 38.00 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract positions are 593,708.00 hands, down 11,524.00 hands; SF futures contract positions are 404,162.00 hands, down 3,467.00 hands [2]. - Manganese - silicon's top 20 net positions are - 71,016.00 hands, up 3,305.00 hands; silicon - iron's top 20 net positions are - 24,273.00 hands, up 1,531.00 hands [2]. - SM 7 - 5 month contract spread is 28.00 yuan/ton, up 2.00 yuan; SF 7 - 5 month contract spread is 124.00 yuan/ton, up 24.00 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts are 55,009.00 sheets, up 4,779.00 sheets; SF warehouse receipts are 7,770.00 sheets, up 320.00 sheets [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 is 5,850.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 is 5,900.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18 is 5,950.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B is 5,600.00 yuan/ton, up 60.00 yuan; Qinghai silicon - iron FeSi75 - B is 5,450.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Ningxia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B is 5,580.00 yuan/ton, up 130.00 yuan [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average is 5,809.00 yuan/ton, up 188.78 yuan; SF main contract basis is - 342.00 yuan/ton, up 92.00 yuan; SM main contract basis is - 312.00 yuan/ton, down 46.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - South African high - iron manganese ore average price at Tianjin Port is 33.95 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; South African semi - carbonate manganese ore average price at Tianjin Port is 39.15 yuan/ton - degree, up 0.20 yuan [2]. - Silica (98% in the northwest) is 2,100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Lan charcoal (medium - sized in Shenmu) is 730.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke is 1,110.00 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory is 472.80 million tons, down 22.60 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate is 35.70%, up 0.08%; silicon - iron enterprise operating rate is 26.55%, down 1.77% [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply is 195,860.00 tons, down 1,575.00 tons; silicon - iron supply is 96,500.00 tons, down 2,100.00 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory is 387,300.00 tons, down 11,000.00 tons; silicon - iron manufacturer inventory is 66,280.00 tons, down 4,120.00 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Manganese - silicon inventory days of national steel mills is 18.57 days, up 1.09 days; silicon - iron inventory days of national steel mills is 18.72 days, up 1.20 days [2]. - Manganese - silicon demand of five major steel types is 111,169.00 tons, up 943.00 tons; silicon - iron demand of five major steel types is 17,809.40 tons, up 303.60 tons [2]. - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate is 77.71%, down 2.51%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 85.32%, down 2.13% [2]. - Crude steel production is 6,817.74 million tons, down 169.36 million tons [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On March 12, the silicon - manganese market was running strongly. The mainstream steel procurement was quantified yesterday, but the price has not been inquired yet. The cash - inclusive ex - factory price in Jiangsu is 6,000 yuan, and in Tianjin is 5,950 yuan [2]. - Fugu Jinwantong silicon - iron enterprise plans to overhaul a 40,500 - kVA submerged arc furnace, affecting the daily output by 100 tons, and the overhaul time is about one month [2]. - Iranian President Pezeshkian said on social media on the 11th that the "only way" to end the war initiated by the United States and Israel is to recognize Iran's legitimate rights, pay compensation, and the international community provide firm guarantees to prevent Iran from being "invaded again" [2].
《黑色》日报-20251222
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-12-22 06:32
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Last week, steel prices showed a pattern of low - level upward repair, but with weak demand and insufficient upward momentum. The overall steel market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend, with rebar in the 3000 - 3200 range and hot - rolled coils in the 3150 - 3350 range [1]. - Rebar has good de - stocking performance, and the 1 - 5 positive spread can be held. The acceleration of plate production cuts is expected to speed up the de - stocking of hot - rolled coils, and the 5 - month hot - rolled coil to rebar spread can be exited at low levels. The screw - to - ore ratio is still weak, and considering the low level of molten iron, one can try to long the screw - to - ore ratio arbitrage at low levels [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Last week, iron ore prices rebounded slightly and remained range - bound. The key factors for future trading are the steel mill restocking expectation and the downward space of molten iron. The overall iron ore market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend, with the range of 730 - 820. It is recommended to operate the 05 contract within the range and try shorting around 800 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Last week, both coke and coking coal futures showed a strong rebound. Coke spot prices are still in a downward adjustment trend, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts in the short term. For coke, it is recommended to go long the 2605 contract at low levels and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke. For coking coal, it is also recommended to go long the 2605 contract at low levels and use the same arbitrage strategy [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Last week, ferrosilicon prices rebounded slightly. The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needs to be resolved, and the price is expected to be range - bound between 5400 - 5650. It is recommended to try shorting when the price rebounds above the immediate cost in Ningxia [8]. - Ferromanganese is in a state of overall supply - demand balance, and manganese ore provides certain support for ferromanganese prices. The key factors for the future are the production cut amplitude and the steel mill restocking before winter. The price is expected to move weakly with limited amplitude [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in most regions decreased slightly, and futures prices also showed a downward trend. The basis and spreads of different contracts also changed to varying degrees [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained stable. The costs of electric - arc furnace and converter rebar in Jiangsu increased, and the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions showed different degrees of change, with some increasing and some still in a loss state [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron output increased slightly by 0.1%, the output of five major steel products decreased by 1.0%, the rebar output increased by 1.6%, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 5.4%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.8%, with rebar having better de - stocking performance and hot - rolled coil having slower de - stocking [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 2.8%, the apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 0.5%, the apparent demand of rebar increased by 2.7%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.4% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The prices of various iron ore varieties showed a slight increase or decrease. The basis of the 09 contract for different iron ore varieties increased to varying degrees, and the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads also changed [4]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment increased compared to the previous period, and the molten iron output decreased by 1.2%. The 45 - port average daily ore removal volume decreased by 1.8%, and the national pig iron and crude steel monthly output decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port iron ore inventory increased by 0.8%, the inventory of 64 steel mills in terms of available days decreased by 1.2%, and the inventory of 247 steel mills in terms of available days increased by 5.0% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices showed a downward trend in some contracts, and the basis of different contracts changed. The spot prices of coke and coking coal also had different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [7]. Supply and Demand - Coke production decreased slightly, and molten iron production decreased by 1.2%. The supply of coking coal decreased slightly, and the demand for coking coal also decreased due to the decrease in coke production [7]. Inventory - Coke inventory decreased slightly overall, with coking plants accumulating inventory and ports and steel mills reducing inventory. Coking coal inventory increased slightly overall, with coal washing plants and coking enterprises reducing inventory and mines, ports, steel mills, and ports accumulating inventory [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures prices increased slightly, and the spot prices of most regions remained stable. The spreads between different regions and contracts also changed [8]. Cost and Profit - Manganese ore prices were firm, and some overseas mines' January offers increased. Electricity prices were basically stable, providing certain cost support for ferromanganese. The cost of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased slightly [8]. Supply and Demand - Ferrosilicon production decreased by 6.15%, and the production enterprise's operating rate decreased by 6.6%. Ferromanganese production decreased by 0.5%, and the operating rate decreased by 3.4%. The demand for both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly [8]. Inventory - Ferrosilicon factory inventory remained high, and the inventory decreased by 16.3%. Ferromanganese inventory increased slightly by 0.7%, and the average available days of inventory for both remained relatively stable [8].