Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology announced the first batch of enterprises that meet the "Steel Industry Normative Conditions (2025 Edition)," positively impacting the steel sector, with the Steel ETF (515210) rising over 4% [1]. Group 1: Industry Impact - The announcement of the steel industry norms is expected to boost market sentiment, leading to a strong rebound in steel prices post-holiday due to low inventory levels and cost support [1]. - Long-term storage efforts this winter have been the weakest in recent years, resulting in low total inventory levels for five major steel products, which may alleviate post-holiday destocking pressure [1]. - Rebar prices are currently running above 3,200 yuan per ton, indicating that price adjustments have been sufficient, with a significant probability of price increases in the near future [1]. Group 2: ETF and Index Performance - The Steel ETF (515210) tracks the CSI Steel Industry Index (930606), which selects securities from listed companies in the steel sector, including both general and special steel, to reflect the overall performance of the Chinese steel industry [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides investment analysis and forecasts for various black - series commodities in the futures market, including views on price trends and influencing factors for each commodity [2] - For example, it is believed that steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coil will experience wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance; silicon iron will have wide - range fluctuations with the expected increase in cost; coke and coking coal will have range - bound fluctuations due to the combination of industry and funds; and the supply and demand of thermal coal will tend to be weak, with short - term prices having narrow - range fluctuations [2] 3. Summary by Commodity Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing prices of RB2605 and HC2605 were 3,142 yuan/ton and 3,305 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 18 yuan/ton (0.58%) and 17 yuan/ton (0.52%). The trading volume of RB2605 was 657,796 lots, and the position was 1,741,762 lots, with a decrease of 5,512 lots. The trading volume of HC2605 was 304,877 lots, and the position was 1,487,297 lots, with an increase of 33,977 lots [4] - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in different regions showed small fluctuations, with some regions having price increases of 0 - 10 yuan/ton [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: According to the weekly data of Steel Union on January 22, the output of rebar increased by 9.25 tons, and the output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 2.95 tons. The total inventory of rebar increased by 14.03 tons, and the total inventory of hot - rolled coil decreased by 4.55 tons. The apparent demand for both decreased [5] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [6] Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing prices of SF2603 and SF2605 were 5,652 yuan/ton and 5,626 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 42 yuan/ton and 40 yuan/ton. The trading volume of SF2603 was 147,842 lots, and the position was 215,911 lots. The trading volume of SF2605 was 50,737 lots, and the position was 82,503 lots. The closing prices of MS2603 and MS2605 were 5,818 yuan/ton and 5,856 yuan/ton respectively, with increases of 46 yuan/ton and 42 yuan/ton. The trading volume of MS2603 was 72,983 lots, and the position was 174,771 lots. The trading volume of MS2605 was 143,780 lots, and the position was 348,558 lots [9] - **Spot Price**: The spot price of silicon iron and manganese silicon in different regions showed different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of 72 silicon iron in some regions increased by 25 - 50 yuan/ton, and the price of 6517 silicon manganese in the north decreased by 25 yuan/ton [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: As of January 23, the total manganese ore inventory was 436.52 tons, a net increase of 16.38 tons compared to the previous period. Some silicon - manganese plants in Inner Mongolia have new production capacity coming online [10] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0, indicating a neutral trend [11] Coke and Coking Coal - **Price and Trading Data**: The closing price of JM2605 was 1,157 yuan/ton, with an increase of 25.5 yuan/ton (2.3%). The closing price of J2605 was 1,722 yuan/ton, with an increase of 34 yuan/ton (2.0%). The trading volume of JM2605 was 1,077,875 lots, and the position was 500,996 lots, with a decrease of 20,065 lots. The trading volume of J2605 was 12,490 lots, and the position was 38,116 lots, with a decrease of 242 lots [13] - **Spot Price**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke in different regions remained stable, with only a small increase in the price of Meng 5 coking coal in Tangshan [13] - **Macro and Industry News**: On January 23, the CCI metallurgical coal index showed that the prices of different types of coking coal remained unchanged. The online auction of coking coal had a 16% non - transaction rate, an increase of 9% compared to the previous day, and the average premium was 18.78 yuan/ton. The terminal demand was weak, and the coking and steel markets were in a continuous game [13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 0, indicating a neutral trend [16] Thermal Coal - **Price Data**: The prices of thermal coal in different regions and ports remained stable, with only a small increase in the overseas price of Indonesian FOB Q3800. The January long - term agreement prices of different regions decreased to varying degrees [17] - **Macro and Industry News**: In December 2025, the national raw coal output increased month - on - month, with an annual output reaching a new high, but the daily average output decreased. The coal import volume in December 2025 far exceeded expectations. In 2026, Indonesia is expected to tighten its coal production quota [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Last week, steel prices showed a pattern of low - level upward repair, but with weak demand and insufficient upward momentum. The overall steel market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend, with rebar in the 3000 - 3200 range and hot - rolled coils in the 3150 - 3350 range [1]. - Rebar has good de - stocking performance, and the 1 - 5 positive spread can be held. The acceleration of plate production cuts is expected to speed up the de - stocking of hot - rolled coils, and the 5 - month hot - rolled coil to rebar spread can be exited at low levels. The screw - to - ore ratio is still weak, and considering the low level of molten iron, one can try to long the screw - to - ore ratio arbitrage at low levels [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Last week, iron ore prices rebounded slightly and remained range - bound. The key factors for future trading are the steel mill restocking expectation and the downward space of molten iron. The overall iron ore market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend, with the range of 730 - 820. It is recommended to operate the 05 contract within the range and try shorting around 800 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Last week, both coke and coking coal futures showed a strong rebound. Coke spot prices are still in a downward adjustment trend, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts in the short term. For coke, it is recommended to go long the 2605 contract at low levels and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke. For coking coal, it is also recommended to go long the 2605 contract at low levels and use the same arbitrage strategy [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Last week, ferrosilicon prices rebounded slightly. The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needs to be resolved, and the price is expected to be range - bound between 5400 - 5650. It is recommended to try shorting when the price rebounds above the immediate cost in Ningxia [8]. - Ferromanganese is in a state of overall supply - demand balance, and manganese ore provides certain support for ferromanganese prices. The key factors for the future are the production cut amplitude and the steel mill restocking before winter. The price is expected to move weakly with limited amplitude [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in most regions decreased slightly, and futures prices also showed a downward trend. The basis and spreads of different contracts also changed to varying degrees [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained stable. The costs of electric - arc furnace and converter rebar in Jiangsu increased, and the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions showed different degrees of change, with some increasing and some still in a loss state [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron output increased slightly by 0.1%, the output of five major steel products decreased by 1.0%, the rebar output increased by 1.6%, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 5.4%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.8%, with rebar having better de - stocking performance and hot - rolled coil having slower de - stocking [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 2.8%, the apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 0.5%, the apparent demand of rebar increased by 2.7%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.4% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The prices of various iron ore varieties showed a slight increase or decrease. The basis of the 09 contract for different iron ore varieties increased to varying degrees, and the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads also changed [4]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment increased compared to the previous period, and the molten iron output decreased by 1.2%. The 45 - port average daily ore removal volume decreased by 1.8%, and the national pig iron and crude steel monthly output decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port iron ore inventory increased by 0.8%, the inventory of 64 steel mills in terms of available days decreased by 1.2%, and the inventory of 247 steel mills in terms of available days increased by 5.0% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices showed a downward trend in some contracts, and the basis of different contracts changed. The spot prices of coke and coking coal also had different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [7]. Supply and Demand - Coke production decreased slightly, and molten iron production decreased by 1.2%. The supply of coking coal decreased slightly, and the demand for coking coal also decreased due to the decrease in coke production [7]. Inventory - Coke inventory decreased slightly overall, with coking plants accumulating inventory and ports and steel mills reducing inventory. Coking coal inventory increased slightly overall, with coal washing plants and coking enterprises reducing inventory and mines, ports, steel mills, and ports accumulating inventory [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures prices increased slightly, and the spot prices of most regions remained stable. The spreads between different regions and contracts also changed [8]. Cost and Profit - Manganese ore prices were firm, and some overseas mines' January offers increased. Electricity prices were basically stable, providing certain cost support for ferromanganese. The cost of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased slightly [8]. Supply and Demand - Ferrosilicon production decreased by 6.15%, and the production enterprise's operating rate decreased by 6.6%. Ferromanganese production decreased by 0.5%, and the operating rate decreased by 3.4%. The demand for both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly [8]. Inventory - Ferrosilicon factory inventory remained high, and the inventory decreased by 16.3%. Ferromanganese inventory increased slightly by 0.7%, and the average available days of inventory for both remained relatively stable [8].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report's Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The steel price is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The reference range for rebar is 3000 - 3200, and for hot - rolled coils, it is 3250 - 3400 [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, rebar spot in the East China region increased from 3220 to 3240, and hot - rolled coil 05 contract increased from 3274 to 3292 [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet price increased by 30 to 2980, while some costs such as Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar cost decreased by 22 to 3231. Profits in different regions and varieties also changed. For instance, East China hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 6 to - 85 [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased by 0.6 to 236.3 tons (-0.3%), but the output of five major steel products increased by 15.5 to 849.9 tons (1.9%). Rebar production increased by 8.0 to 208.0 tons (4.0%), and hot - rolled coil production increased by 2.3 to 316.0 tons (0.7%) [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 44.2 to 1433.1 tons (-3.0%), rebar inventory decreased by 22.8 to 553.3 tons (-4.0%), and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 8.4 to 402.1 tons (-2.0%) [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: Building material trading volume increased by 3.6 to 13.1 (37.9%), the apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 33.6 to 894.2 tons (3.9%), rebar apparent demand increased by 14.4 to 230.8 (6.7%), and hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 10.8 to 324.4 (3.5%) [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report's Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Without new macro - drivers, it is difficult for iron ore to have an independent unilateral trend. The market will oscillate with a bullish bias under the condition of a discounted price on the futures market [5]. Summary by Directory - **Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore powders such as lower powder, PB powder, etc. increased slightly. The basis of 01 contract for different powders decreased, and the spreads between different contracts also changed. For example, the 5 - 9 spread increased from 25.5 to 27.0 (5.9%) [5]. - **Supply**: The global shipping volume of iron ore increased by 447.4 to 3516.4 tons (14.6%) on a weekly basis, and the arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 548.2 to 2817.1 tons (24.2%) [5]. - **Demand**: The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 49.7 to 6554.9 tons (-0.8%), and the monthly national crude steel output decreased by 149.3 to 7199.7 tons (-2.0%) [5]. - **Inventory Changes**: The inventory of imported iron ore in 247 steel mills decreased by 74.8 to 9001.2 tons (-0.8%) on a weekly basis. The daily average port clearance volume increased by 3.0 to 329.9 (0.9%) [5]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report's Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - For coke, it is regarded as oscillating with a bearish bias, and the range reference is 1550 - 1700. For coking coal, it is also regarded as oscillating with a bearish bias, and the range reference is 1050 - 1200. The recommended arbitrage strategy is to go long on coke and short on coking coal [8]. Summary by Directory - **Coke and Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads**: Coke 01 contract increased from 1615 to 1633 (1.1%), while coking coal 01 contract decreased from 1103 to 1097 (-0.6%). The basis of different contracts and spreads between contracts also changed. For example, the 01 basis of coke decreased from 21 to - 8, and the J01 - J05 spread increased from - 164 to - 150 [8]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 62.7 tons (-0.5%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 46.2 tons. The output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased, with raw coal output decreasing by 2.4 to 851.5 tons (-0.3%) and clean coal output decreasing by 1.8 to 433.8 tons (-0.4%) [8]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.6 to 236.3 tons (-0.3%), and the demand - side coke output also decreased slightly [8]. - **Inventory Changes**: Coke total inventory increased slightly by 1.3 to 880.6 tons (0.1%). The inventory of various parties such as coking plants, steel mills, and ports changed. For example, the inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 7.1 to 65.3 tons (12.3%). Coking coal inventory also changed, with some parties going through de - stocking and others increasing inventory [8]. - **Policy and Market Situation**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued a notice on the signing and performance supervision of medium - and long - term contracts for thermal coal in 2026. The coking coal spot price started to fall, and the pressure of hedging on the futures market increased [8].