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“硬盘荒”将延续!希捷科技(STX.US)HDD毛利率或将突破50%,大摩上调牛市目标价至341美元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-12-16 03:18
Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley reiterates "Overweight" rating for Seagate Technology (STX.US) with a target price of $270 and a bull case target price of $341, citing strong cycles and expected HDD sales to enjoy over 50% gross margins in the next 12 months [1] Group 1: Financial Projections - Analysts led by Erik Woodring predict revenue growth, profit margins, and earnings per share are trending towards or exceeding current bull case forecasts, estimating FY2027 earnings per share at approximately $17, compared to Morgan Stanley's base estimate of $15.40 and market consensus of $14.67, supporting the bullish target price of $341 [1] - The CFO of Seagate, Gianluca Romano, indicated that HDD demand is tracking significantly faster than the 25% annual growth in HDD storage capacity (exabytes) driven by Seagate, with estimates potentially reaching around 40% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The HDD market is expected to remain in a supply-demand imbalance throughout the 2027 calendar year, even as the industry begins to certify new, higher-capacity drives in the first half of 2026 [1] - The quality of HDD demand is noted to be close to "real" demand, minimizing risks of inventory buildup or excessive ordering that could jeopardize the cycle [1] - Apart from Western Digital (WDC.US), Seagate faces minimal competition in the hard disk drive technology sector [1]