自由现金流5.99亿美元，较去年同期的-6100万美元大幅改善，库存周转天数：80天，较上一季度的76 天有所增加。 西部数据首席执行官欧文·谭(Irving Tan)表示："在云数据存储需求增长推动的强劲市场环境下，西部数 据持续保持良好运营。本财年第一季度，我们的营收和毛利率均超出指引区间上限，同时实现了强劲的 自由现金流。" 智通财经APP获悉，全球领先的数据存储制造商西部数据(Western Digital，WDC.US)美东时间周四盘后 公布了2025自然年第三季度业绩，本季度在营收、营业利润及每股收益三项指标上均超出分析师预期， 从整体来看，本次业绩报告数据亮眼，财报公布后，公司股价一度上涨12.6%，截至发稿，盘后大涨 9.5%至151.3美元。 数据显示，西部数据Q3同比增长27.4%，达28.2亿美元，高于分析师预期的27.4亿美元，超出预期 2.8%。调整后每股收益(EPS)1.78美元，高于分析师预期的1.58美元，超出预期12.9%。 调整后营业利润8.56亿美元，高于分析师预期的7.564亿美元(营业利润率30.4%，超出预期13.2%)，营业 利润率：28.1%，高于去年同期的15 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the HDD industry is entering a "Stronger For Longer" cycle, with the peak expected to extend until 2028, currently in the mid-cycle phase [1] Demand Side - HDD demand is driven by cloud capital expenditure and AI, showing explosive growth; global top 11 cloud providers' capital expenditure is projected to reach $459 billion in 2025, a 61% year-on-year increase, with a 16% growth rate in 2026 [1] - From 2024 to 2028, global data center spending is expected to reach $2.9 trillion, with 85% allocated to AI-specific data centers; the revenue correlation between Western Digital and Seagate with cloud capital expenditure is as high as 0.8-0.9, with cloud business accounting for over 75% of their revenues [1] Supply Side - Supply constraints are expected to exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance, pushing HDD prices upward; a projected supply gap of approximately 150EB, or 10% of market demand, is anticipated over the next 12 months, continuing until 2028 [2] - The difficulty in expanding HDD production capacity is a core reason for supply constraints, with new factory setups taking 12 months for equipment procurement and hiring, followed by another 12 months for production ramp-up, with costs exceeding $500 million per factory [2] Pricing and Contracts - Western Digital announced a gradual price increase for all HDD products, with Seagate following suit, expecting price hikes of 7-10%; major cloud providers have signed long-term agreements with HDD manufacturers, providing 18 months of visibility into industry demand [3] Financial Performance and Valuation - Morgan Stanley significantly raised revenue forecasts for Western Digital and Seagate, with Western Digital projected to generate revenues of $11.286 billion to $15.166 billion from FY26 to FY28, an increase of 3%-32% from previous estimates; EPS is expected to rise to $7.03-$12.84, a 6%-58% increase [3] - Seagate's revenue is projected to be $10.462 billion to $13.673 billion for FY26 to FY28, with EPS expected to rise to $10.71-$20.54, an increase of 4%-26% [4] Industry Valuation - The HDD industry is undergoing a structural revaluation, transitioning from a cyclical to a structurally growing asset class; current valuations are significantly below reasonable levels, with projected EPS compound growth rates exceeding 35% for both companies over the next three years [4][5] - Current PE ratios for Western Digital and Seagate are 14x and 18.3x, respectively, placing them in the bottom 25% of the industry, while the implied reasonable target multiple is 8x, indicating an 80% upside potential [4]

在AI永不满足的需求驱动下，全球存储芯片市场正进入一场前所未有的"饥饿游戏"。 据追风交易台消息，摩根大通分析师Jay Kwon、Sangsik Lee等在近日发布的报告中表示，由云服务提供 商引领的"内存饥渴"趋势正在推动整个行业进入结构性增长阶段。 报告指出，这一轮周期的核心驱动力来自AI计算对高性能内存的巨大需求，其影响已从高端的高带宽 内存（HBM）迅速扩展至传统DRAM和NAND闪存。市场动态显示，供应商在未来12个月内可能难以 满足全部需求，从而支撑价格持续走强。 本轮存储芯片需求的广度是其核心特征之一。除了作为焦点的HBM，需求正向更多元化的应用扩展， 共同加剧了供应紧张的局面。 报告强调，用于英伟达下一代Vera CPU的SOCAMM2内存模组，以及用于Rubin CPX GPU的GDDR7显 存，都将成为拉动DRAM需求的新增长点。 这场行业变局不仅限于DRAM市场的价格复苏，NAND闪存市场同样在经历强劲反弹，部分原因是硬盘 驱动器（HDD）出现严重短缺，迫使客户转向企业级固态硬盘（eSSD）。 因此，摩根大通大幅上调了全球存储市场的规模预测，将2025至2026年的全球存储市场总体有效市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The demand for hard disk drives (HDD) in the Chinese market is increasing, leading to a 1% rise in bulk trading prices from Q2 to Q3. This price increase is attributed to rising component costs and strong procurement demand from data centers, with expectations for continued price growth in large-capacity HDDs [1][4]. Group 1: HDD Price Trends - HDD prices for 3.5-inch 1TB drives used in desktop computers and surveillance cameras reached approximately $51.0 each in Q3, marking a 1% increase from the previous quarter. Similarly, 2.5-inch 1TB drives for laptops also saw a 1% rise, priced at about $48.4 each. Both products have experienced price increases for two consecutive quarters, maintaining high price levels [2][3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Demand - The surge in demand from China is driven by government policies encouraging the purchase of domestic computers, with specific needs arising from educational computers. There are indications that HDDs are being used in computers equipped with Huawei's HarmonyOS [6]. - A major HDD manufacturer reported receiving orders from Chinese clients that exceeded production capacity before the Golden Week, particularly for 3.5-inch products, indicating a notable shortage [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite expectations that the rise of solid-state drives (SSD) would reduce HDD usage in computers, the current price increase is a result of declining HDD shipments, rising component costs, and unique demand from China. There is uncertainty about whether prices will continue to rise after Q4 [6]. - For nearline data center applications, demand for large-capacity HDDs remains strong. In Q2, global shipments of nearline HDDs increased by 1.86 million units (12.7%) compared to the previous quarter, reaching 16.47 million units [6].