Woodring补充道："在我们的会议中，希捷科技首席财务官Gianluca Romano明确指出，HDD需求追踪的 速度'大幅度地'快于希捷所推动的25%年度HDD存储容量(exabyte)增长(我们估计可能达到约40%)——这 意味着，即使该行业从2026年上半年开始认证新的、更高容量的驱动器，HDD仍可能在整个2027日历 年处于供不应求状态。""然而，在这些会议中，对我们来说同样值得注意的是HDD需求的质量——这 意味着我们感到这些订单尽可能地接近'真实'需求，而不是会危及周期的库存积压或过度订购。" 大摩指出，除了西部数据(WDC.US)之外，希捷科技在硬盘驱动器技术领域几乎没有竞争对手。 摩根士丹利重申希捷科技(STX.US)"增持"评级，目标价270美元，并将牛市目标价定为341美元。该行指 出，由于强劲的周期，希捷科技预计其硬盘驱动器(HDD)销售在未来12个月内将享有超过50%的毛利 率。 由 Erik Woodring领导的分析师团队周一表示："与此同时，我们对进入2026年可能使这一趋势脱轨的风 险也感到更加放心。""当我们把这些因素加在一起时，我们认为营收增长、利润率和每股收益正趋向于 ...

Core Viewpoint - Western Digital reported strong Q3 2025 results, exceeding analyst expectations in revenue, operating profit, and earnings per share, leading to a significant increase in stock price [1][2]. Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached $2.82 billion, a year-over-year increase of 27.4%, surpassing analyst expectations of $2.74 billion by 2.8% [1]. - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) were $1.78, exceeding the forecast of $1.58 by 12.9% [1]. - Adjusted operating profit was $856 million, above the expected $756.4 million, with an operating margin of 30.4%, exceeding expectations by 13.2% [1]. - Free cash flow improved significantly to $599 million, compared to a negative $61 million in the same quarter last year [1]. - Inventory turnover days increased to 80 days, up from 76 days in the previous quarter [1]. Market Environment - The CEO highlighted strong operational performance driven by growing demand for cloud data storage [2]. - Western Digital has experienced a decline in revenue over the past five years, averaging a 9.4% annual decrease, indicating relatively lower business quality compared to industry standards [2]. - The semiconductor industry is characterized by cyclical trends, necessitating preparedness for alternating periods of high growth and revenue contraction [2]. Future Outlook - Analysts project a 14.9% revenue growth for Western Digital over the next 12 months, indicating stronger momentum from new products and services [3]. - The rise of generative AI is expected to significantly impact large enterprises, with Western Digital gaining market attention despite being less known compared to giants like NVIDIA and AMD [3]. - Current inventory turnover days stand at 80, which is 34 days lower than the five-year average, suggesting no immediate signs of excessive inventory buildup [3].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the HDD industry is entering a "Stronger For Longer" cycle, with the peak expected to extend until 2028, currently in the mid-cycle phase [1] Demand Side - HDD demand is driven by cloud capital expenditure and AI, showing explosive growth; global top 11 cloud providers' capital expenditure is projected to reach $459 billion in 2025, a 61% year-on-year increase, with a 16% growth rate in 2026 [1] - From 2024 to 2028, global data center spending is expected to reach $2.9 trillion, with 85% allocated to AI-specific data centers; the revenue correlation between Western Digital and Seagate with cloud capital expenditure is as high as 0.8-0.9, with cloud business accounting for over 75% of their revenues [1] Supply Side - Supply constraints are expected to exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance, pushing HDD prices upward; a projected supply gap of approximately 150EB, or 10% of market demand, is anticipated over the next 12 months, continuing until 2028 [2] - The difficulty in expanding HDD production capacity is a core reason for supply constraints, with new factory setups taking 12 months for equipment procurement and hiring, followed by another 12 months for production ramp-up, with costs exceeding $500 million per factory [2] Pricing and Contracts - Western Digital announced a gradual price increase for all HDD products, with Seagate following suit, expecting price hikes of 7-10%; major cloud providers have signed long-term agreements with HDD manufacturers, providing 18 months of visibility into industry demand [3] Financial Performance and Valuation - Morgan Stanley significantly raised revenue forecasts for Western Digital and Seagate, with Western Digital projected to generate revenues of $11.286 billion to $15.166 billion from FY26 to FY28, an increase of 3%-32% from previous estimates; EPS is expected to rise to $7.03-$12.84, a 6%-58% increase [3] - Seagate's revenue is projected to be $10.462 billion to $13.673 billion for FY26 to FY28, with EPS expected to rise to $10.71-$20.54, an increase of 4%-26% [4] Industry Valuation - The HDD industry is undergoing a structural revaluation, transitioning from a cyclical to a structurally growing asset class; current valuations are significantly below reasonable levels, with projected EPS compound growth rates exceeding 35% for both companies over the next three years [4][5] - Current PE ratios for Western Digital and Seagate are 14x and 18.3x, respectively, placing them in the bottom 25% of the industry, while the implied reasonable target multiple is 8x, indicating an 80% upside potential [4]

Core Insights - The global storage chip market is entering an unprecedented "hunger game" driven by AI demand, leading to structural growth in the industry [1] - The report from JPMorgan highlights that the "memory hunger" trend, led by cloud service providers, is pushing the entire industry into a growth phase [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - AI computing is the primary driver of demand for high-performance memory, impacting not only high-bandwidth memory (HBM) but also traditional DRAM and NAND flash [1] - There is a potential supply shortage in the next 12 months, which is expected to support rising prices across the market [1] - The NAND flash market is experiencing a strong rebound, partly due to a severe shortage of hard disk drives (HDD), prompting customers to shift towards enterprise solid-state drives (eSSD) [1][4] Group 2: Market Forecasts - JPMorgan has raised its forecast for the global storage market, predicting a 6% to 24% increase in the total addressable market (TAM) for 2025 to 2026, with an expected market size of nearly $300 billion by 2027 [1][3] - By 2027, AI-related applications are projected to account for 53% of the DRAM market TAM [3] Group 3: DRAM and HBM Insights - The DRAM market is entering an unprecedented four-year pricing upcycle from 2024 to 2027, driven by HBM's stability [2] - HBM is expected to account for 43% of the total value in the DRAM market by 2027, smoothing out traditional DRAM price fluctuations [2] - SK Hynix is positioned to lead in the HBM4 race, potentially capturing over 60% of the market share [2] Group 4: NAND Market Recovery - The NAND flash market is experiencing a strong pricing recovery after two years of underinvestment, driven by increased demand for eSSD [5] - The shortage of traditional HDDs, with delivery cycles extending up to 52 weeks, is pushing the nearline storage market to adopt eSSD as a replacement [5] - NAND prices are expected to continue rising, with a projected 7% increase in average selling prices for the 2026 fiscal year [5]

Core Viewpoint - The demand for hard disk drives (HDD) in the Chinese market is increasing, leading to a 1% rise in bulk trading prices from Q2 to Q3. This price increase is attributed to rising component costs and strong procurement demand from data centers, with expectations for continued price growth in large-capacity HDDs [1][4]. Group 1: HDD Price Trends - HDD prices for 3.5-inch 1TB drives used in desktop computers and surveillance cameras reached approximately $51.0 each in Q3, marking a 1% increase from the previous quarter. Similarly, 2.5-inch 1TB drives for laptops also saw a 1% rise, priced at about $48.4 each. Both products have experienced price increases for two consecutive quarters, maintaining high price levels [2][3]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Demand - The surge in demand from China is driven by government policies encouraging the purchase of domestic computers, with specific needs arising from educational computers. There are indications that HDDs are being used in computers equipped with Huawei's HarmonyOS [6]. - A major HDD manufacturer reported receiving orders from Chinese clients that exceeded production capacity before the Golden Week, particularly for 3.5-inch products, indicating a notable shortage [6]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - Despite expectations that the rise of solid-state drives (SSD) would reduce HDD usage in computers, the current price increase is a result of declining HDD shipments, rising component costs, and unique demand from China. There is uncertainty about whether prices will continue to rise after Q4 [6]. - For nearline data center applications, demand for large-capacity HDDs remains strong. In Q2, global shipments of nearline HDDs increased by 1.86 million units (12.7%) compared to the previous quarter, reaching 16.47 million units [6].