Woodring补充道："在我们的会议中，希捷科技首席财务官Gianluca Romano明确指出，HDD需求追踪的 速度'大幅度地'快于希捷所推动的25%年度HDD存储容量(exabyte)增长(我们估计可能达到约40%)——这 意味着，即使该行业从2026年上半年开始认证新的、更高容量的驱动器，HDD仍可能在整个2027日历 年处于供不应求状态。""然而，在这些会议中，对我们来说同样值得注意的是HDD需求的质量——这 意味着我们感到这些订单尽可能地接近'真实'需求，而不是会危及周期的库存积压或过度订购。" 大摩指出，除了西部数据(WDC.US)之外，希捷科技在硬盘驱动器技术领域几乎没有竞争对手。 摩根士丹利重申希捷科技(STX.US)"增持"评级，目标价270美元，并将牛市目标价定为341美元。该行指 出，由于强劲的周期，希捷科技预计其硬盘驱动器(HDD)销售在未来12个月内将享有超过50%的毛利 率。 由 Erik Woodring领导的分析师团队周一表示："与此同时，我们对进入2026年可能使这一趋势脱轨的风 险也感到更加放心。""当我们把这些因素加在一起时，我们认为营收增长、利润率和每股收益正趋向于 ...

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the hard disk drive (HDD) industry, particularly the companies Seagate and Western Digital (WD) [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Nearline Storage Demand**: There is a significant increase in nearline storage demand, with a projected growth rate of 25% over the next three years. HDD supply shortages are expected to persist until 2026, granting pricing power to Seagate and WD, which will drive the adoption of high-capacity HDDs and the application of Hammer technology [1][3]. - **Cloud Computing Capital Expenditure**: There is a strong correlation (R-squared of 0.9) between cloud computing capital expenditure and HDD revenue growth. Continuous upward adjustments in cloud capital spending indicate robust growth potential for HDD revenues, benefiting related companies [1][4]. - **Impact of Artificial Intelligence (AI)**: The shift in AI towards multimodal reasoning is leading to an exponential increase in data storage needs, as the volume of generated data (images, videos) far exceeds that of text files. This trend is expected to significantly drive HDD demand [1][5]. - **Supply Shortages and Pricing Power**: The ongoing HDD supply shortage is providing Seagate and WD with pricing power, encouraging customers to adopt higher-capacity HDDs. This situation is also promoting the use of profit-generating technologies like Hammer, with Seagate's gross margin expected to reach 40% by the end of fiscal year 2026 [1][6]. - **Valuation of WD and Seagate**: The valuation methods for WD and Seagate involve comparing them with semiconductor hardware and networking companies related to data centers. Despite leading in revenue growth and cloud service revenue share, their price-to-earnings ratios are relatively low. Regression analysis suggests that their current enterprise value/sales ratio of 4-4.5 should rise to around 8, indicating significant upside potential. Target prices are set at $171 for WD and $265 for Seagate [1][7][8]. Other Important Insights - **Beneficiaries of the HDD Cycle**: The long-term strong HDD cycle not only benefits WD and Seagate but also positively impacts TDK (a key supplier of HDD heads and arms), Hoya (the sole supplier of glass substrates for HDD heads), and storage companies like SanDisk and Micron, which are also rated as buy due to the current strong NAND flash cycle driven by HDD shortages [2][9].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the HDD industry is entering a "Stronger For Longer" cycle, with the peak expected to extend until 2028, currently in the mid-cycle phase [1] Demand Side - HDD demand is driven by cloud capital expenditure and AI, showing explosive growth; global top 11 cloud providers' capital expenditure is projected to reach $459 billion in 2025, a 61% year-on-year increase, with a 16% growth rate in 2026 [1] - From 2024 to 2028, global data center spending is expected to reach $2.9 trillion, with 85% allocated to AI-specific data centers; the revenue correlation between Western Digital and Seagate with cloud capital expenditure is as high as 0.8-0.9, with cloud business accounting for over 75% of their revenues [1] Supply Side - Supply constraints are expected to exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance, pushing HDD prices upward; a projected supply gap of approximately 150EB, or 10% of market demand, is anticipated over the next 12 months, continuing until 2028 [2] - The difficulty in expanding HDD production capacity is a core reason for supply constraints, with new factory setups taking 12 months for equipment procurement and hiring, followed by another 12 months for production ramp-up, with costs exceeding $500 million per factory [2] Pricing and Contracts - Western Digital announced a gradual price increase for all HDD products, with Seagate following suit, expecting price hikes of 7-10%; major cloud providers have signed long-term agreements with HDD manufacturers, providing 18 months of visibility into industry demand [3] Financial Performance and Valuation - Morgan Stanley significantly raised revenue forecasts for Western Digital and Seagate, with Western Digital projected to generate revenues of $11.286 billion to $15.166 billion from FY26 to FY28, an increase of 3%-32% from previous estimates; EPS is expected to rise to $7.03-$12.84, a 6%-58% increase [3] - Seagate's revenue is projected to be $10.462 billion to $13.673 billion for FY26 to FY28, with EPS expected to rise to $10.71-$20.54, an increase of 4%-26% [4] Industry Valuation - The HDD industry is undergoing a structural revaluation, transitioning from a cyclical to a structurally growing asset class; current valuations are significantly below reasonable levels, with projected EPS compound growth rates exceeding 35% for both companies over the next three years [4][5] - Current PE ratios for Western Digital and Seagate are 14x and 18.3x, respectively, placing them in the bottom 25% of the industry, while the implied reasonable target multiple is 8x, indicating an 80% upside potential [4]

当紧急替代了重要，修补掩盖了解决，组织就陷入了"灭火综合征"——问题层出不穷，效率持续下滑。不是人不够努力，而是系统出了问题。 如何跳出救火循环，回到有序应对？答案藏在组织的战术选择、战略布局与文化土壤中。 我们可以思考一下问题如何在组织中流转的。 你知道"灭火综合征"吗？如果这些问题存在于你的部门，就需要提起警惕： 没有足够的时间解决所有的问题。问题的数量超出解决问题的人能处理的数量。 解决方案不完备。许多问题是在修补，而不是真正的解决。也就是说，表面上看问题被处理了，但并未从根本上解决。 问题反复出现且层出不穷。不完备的解决方案会导致旧问题重新出现，或者产生新问题。 紧迫性取代重要性。真正需要解决的问题或解决长期问题的行动，因灭火行为而一再中断或延迟。 许多问题变成了危机。问题会悄然郁积，突然爆发，并需要艰苦卓绝的努力来解决。 业绩下降。如此多的问题未得到充分解决，如此多的机会被放弃，以至整体业绩直线下降。 灭火综合征从何而来？ 当问题出现时，它们会被排入等候的队列，直到某位工程师有时间处理这些问题。当工程师解决完一个问题时，他们会向负责这一问题队列的经理报告， 决定哪些问题最紧急，每个问题应该让谁来解决 ...

Group 1 - Sony (SONY.N) and Western Digital are collaborating to develop HAMR (Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording) hard disk drives [1]