摘要 近线存储需求激增，预计未来三年增长率达 25%，硬盘供应短缺或持续 至 2026 年，为希捷和西部数据带来定价权，推动高容量硬盘采用和 Hammer 技术应用。 云计算资本支出与硬盘收入增长高度相关（R 平方达 0.9），云计算资 本支出持续上调，预示着硬盘收入增长的强劲动力，利好相关企业。 人工智能（AI）推理类型转向多模态，生成图像和视频等数据量远超文 本文件，对数据存储需求构成指数级增长潜力，驱动硬盘需求。 硬盘供应短缺赋予希捷和西部数据定价权，促使客户积极采用更高容量 硬盘，并推动 Hammer 等利润创造技术应用，预计希捷毛利率将在 26 财年末达到 40%水平并持续提升。 西部数据（WD）和希捷（CA）在收益增长和云服务收入占比方面领先 同行，但市盈率估值偏低，企业价值/销售额有显著上涨空间，目标价分 别为 171 美元和 265 美元。 长期强劲硬盘周期不仅利好西部数据和希捷，还使 TDK（硬盘磁头和悬 臂供应商）、Hoya（敲击式磁头玻璃基板供应商）以及 SanDisk、Micron 等存储器公司受益。 Q&A HDD 市场的未来趋势如何？ 我们认为 HDD 周期将会更长久地保持强劲。供 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the HDD industry is entering a "Stronger For Longer" cycle, with the peak expected to extend until 2028, currently in the mid-cycle phase [1] Demand Side - HDD demand is driven by cloud capital expenditure and AI, showing explosive growth; global top 11 cloud providers' capital expenditure is projected to reach $459 billion in 2025, a 61% year-on-year increase, with a 16% growth rate in 2026 [1] - From 2024 to 2028, global data center spending is expected to reach $2.9 trillion, with 85% allocated to AI-specific data centers; the revenue correlation between Western Digital and Seagate with cloud capital expenditure is as high as 0.8-0.9, with cloud business accounting for over 75% of their revenues [1] Supply Side - Supply constraints are expected to exacerbate the supply-demand imbalance, pushing HDD prices upward; a projected supply gap of approximately 150EB, or 10% of market demand, is anticipated over the next 12 months, continuing until 2028 [2] - The difficulty in expanding HDD production capacity is a core reason for supply constraints, with new factory setups taking 12 months for equipment procurement and hiring, followed by another 12 months for production ramp-up, with costs exceeding $500 million per factory [2] Pricing and Contracts - Western Digital announced a gradual price increase for all HDD products, with Seagate following suit, expecting price hikes of 7-10%; major cloud providers have signed long-term agreements with HDD manufacturers, providing 18 months of visibility into industry demand [3] Financial Performance and Valuation - Morgan Stanley significantly raised revenue forecasts for Western Digital and Seagate, with Western Digital projected to generate revenues of $11.286 billion to $15.166 billion from FY26 to FY28, an increase of 3%-32% from previous estimates; EPS is expected to rise to $7.03-$12.84, a 6%-58% increase [3] - Seagate's revenue is projected to be $10.462 billion to $13.673 billion for FY26 to FY28, with EPS expected to rise to $10.71-$20.54, an increase of 4%-26% [4] Industry Valuation - The HDD industry is undergoing a structural revaluation, transitioning from a cyclical to a structurally growing asset class; current valuations are significantly below reasonable levels, with projected EPS compound growth rates exceeding 35% for both companies over the next three years [4][5] - Current PE ratios for Western Digital and Seagate are 14x and 18.3x, respectively, placing them in the bottom 25% of the industry, while the implied reasonable target multiple is 8x, indicating an 80% upside potential [4]

当紧急替代了重要，修补掩盖了解决，组织就陷入了"灭火综合征"——问题层出不穷，效率持续下滑。不是人不够努力，而是系统出了问题。 如何跳出救火循环，回到有序应对？答案藏在组织的战术选择、战略布局与文化土壤中。 我们可以思考一下问题如何在组织中流转的。 你知道"灭火综合征"吗？如果这些问题存在于你的部门，就需要提起警惕： 没有足够的时间解决所有的问题。问题的数量超出解决问题的人能处理的数量。 解决方案不完备。许多问题是在修补，而不是真正的解决。也就是说，表面上看问题被处理了，但并未从根本上解决。 问题反复出现且层出不穷。不完备的解决方案会导致旧问题重新出现，或者产生新问题。 紧迫性取代重要性。真正需要解决的问题或解决长期问题的行动，因灭火行为而一再中断或延迟。 许多问题变成了危机。问题会悄然郁积，突然爆发，并需要艰苦卓绝的努力来解决。 业绩下降。如此多的问题未得到充分解决，如此多的机会被放弃，以至整体业绩直线下降。 灭火综合征从何而来？ 当问题出现时，它们会被排入等候的队列，直到某位工程师有时间处理这些问题。当工程师解决完一个问题时，他们会向负责这一问题队列的经理报告， 决定哪些问题最紧急，每个问题应该让谁来解决 ...

Group 1 - Sony (SONY.N) and Western Digital are collaborating to develop HAMR (Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording) hard disk drives [1]