Group 1: Report Title and Basic Information - Report title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 170, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release date: October 14, 2025 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The main target has fallen below the 50 - yuan mark and may test the historical bottom [5] - It is recommended that gap - enterprises make batch purchases at low prices before the end of October [6] - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may be the real support for the reversal of carbon prices. Although it is expected that the mandatory circulation allowances will be exhausted by October, anticipatory trading may cause the carbon price to reverse in Q3 [6] - Starting from September, key emission units will gradually formulate trading plans based on the allocation of verified allowances, accelerating the release of mandatory circulation allowances and putting pressure on carbon prices. By the end of October, as the compliance pressure gradually emerges and the release of mandatory circulation allowances nears its end, upward momentum may accumulate and carbon prices may enter a stage of trending recovery [7] Group 4: Market Conditions CEA - The main target has fallen to around 50 yuan. The listed volume is 596,000 tons, and the bulk volume is 506,000 tons [6] - For different CEA years: CEA19 - 20 closed at 65 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change; CEA21 at 59 yuan/ton (0.00% change); CEA22 at 60 yuan/ton (0.00% change); CEA23 at 46.08 yuan/ton (- 9.49% change); CEA24 at 49.03 yuan/ton (- 3.54% change). The new - old price differences are - 6 yuan/ton for CEA21, 1 yuan/ton for CEA22, - 13.92 yuan/ton for CEA23, and 2.95 yuan/ton for CEA24. The total trading volume of CEA23 is 3050 tons, and CEA24 is 107,120 tons. The listed agreement volume of CEA23 is 3050 tons, and CEA24 is 56,510 tons. The bulk agreement volume of CEA24 is 50,610 tons, and the total turnover of CEA21 is 1.4055 million yuan, and CEA24 is 47.9568 million yuan [8][9] CCER - The listed agreement trading volume is 5000 tons, and the average transaction price is 64.20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.95%. The turnover is 321,000 yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 319,810 tons [10] Group 5: Strategies - It is recommended that gap - enterprises make batch purchases at low prices before the end of October [6] Group 6: Core Logic - From September, key emission units will gradually formulate trading plans according to the allocation of verified allowances, accelerating the release of mandatory circulation allowances and putting pressure on carbon prices [7] - By the end of October, as the compliance pressure gradually emerges and the release of mandatory circulation allowances nears its end, upward momentum may accumulate and carbon prices may enter a stage of trending recovery [7] Group 7: Risks - Enterprise irrationality leads to the expiration of allowances; enterprises oversell allowances for cash; non - consideration of cross - industry repurchase risks for allowance avoidance and carry - over; a sharp increase in CCER supply [7]