全国碳市场行情简报 (2026年第30期) 国泰君安斯版 发布日期:2026-02-24 节后首个交易日,薄量推动碳价走高 今日 行情 1、CEA: 挂牌1.0万吨, 大宗0.0万吨;挂牌成交均价81.00元/吨（无) 2、CCER: 挂牌协议成交量0.00万吨,成交均价89.00元/吨（4.09%） 策略 信号强度:0 (0为空仓,土1为偏多/空,土2为多/空) 核心 逻辑 价格明显上涨,但成交量极低,属于薄量波动。 1、CCER供应增量超预期;2、发电行业配额缺口低于预期;3、主管部门出台 风险 政策明确具有雄心的未来减排路径。 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | | CEA19-20 CEA21 CEA22 | | CEA23 | CEA24 | CEA25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元/吨) | 74.00 | 74.52 76.39 | | 81.00 | 81.00 | 81. 00 | | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 2.92% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - CEA's listed average price decreased slightly, and the CCER premium rate narrowed. The CEA had 7.6 tons listed and 86.0 tons in bulk transactions, with a listed transaction average price of 77.27 yuan/ton (-1.69%). The CCER had a listed agreement trading volume of 0.00 tons and a transaction average price of 80.00 yuan/ton (-5.04%) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - CEA: 7.6 tons were listed, and 86.0 tons were in bulk transactions. The listed transaction average price was 77.27 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.69%. CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 0.00 tons, and the transaction average price was 80.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.04% [2] Reasons for Market Fluctuations - Recent market transactions are mostly cross - industry carry - over repurchases. Transaction prices are restricted by repurchase contracts, leading to increased intraday fluctuations in CEA and prices that may deviate from market valuations. Currently, sellers have a low willingness to sell, buyers' purchasing intentions are sporadically shown, the bid - ask spread is high, and market transactions are relatively light [3][4] Market Data Details - CEA: The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, CEA24, and CEA25 are 74.00, 74.52, 76.39 ,70.00, 79.00, and 77.27 yuan/ton respectively. The price of CEA25 decreased by 1.69%. The total trading volumes are 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 0.00, 22.00, and 71.58 tons respectively. The listed agreement trading volume of CEA last is 7.58 tons [7]. - CCER: The transaction average price is 80.00 yuan/ton, the trading volume is is 0.00 tons , the premium rate is 3.53%, and the price decreased by 5.04% [8]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - CEA has no listed agreement transactions, while CCER has returned to a "premium" state. The listed agreement volume of CCER is 10000 tons with an average transaction price of 82 yuan/ton, a 19.28% increase [2]. - Recent market transactions are mostly cross - industry carry - over repurchases. The CEA price is subject to repurchase contracts, leading to increased intraday fluctuations and potential deviation from market valuation. Currently, sellers are less willing to sell, buyers' purchasing intentions are sporadic, the bid - ask spread is high, and market transactions are light [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - **CEA**: The listed volume is 0.0 tons, and the bulk volume is 70.0 tons. The average listed transaction price is 78.50 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change. The closing prices of CEA from 2019 - 2025 range from 70.00 to 78.50 yuan/ton, all with a 0.00% change [2][7]. - **CCER**: The listed agreement volume is 10.00 tons, the average transaction price is 82.00 yuan/ton with a 19.28% increase, the premium rate is 4.46%, and the turnover is 820.00 ten thousand yuan [2][8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The CEA's main target has achieved six consecutive positive days. The average price of the listed agreement has increased by about 1.6%, and the intraday trading volume has increased by about 53%. The listed volume is 50.3 tons, and the large - scale volume is 202.2 tons. The listed agreement trading volume of CCER is 0.01 tons, and the average transaction price is 63.00 yuan/ton, with a decline of 20.25% [4]. - As the compliance pressure gradually emerges and the mandatory circulation allowances are basically released, the upward momentum begins to accumulate, and the carbon price may enter a stage of trend recovery [4]. - The basic carry - over allowances of the steel, cement, and electrolytic aluminum industries have increased to 100,000 tons. However, due to the limited allowance gap (within 3%) of most enterprises in 2025, the actual procurement enthusiasm may be lower than expected [5]. - Recently, some newly included industry enterprises have successively started basic carry - over procurement. Attention should be paid to whether the price can stand firm above 70 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 CEA Market Information - **Price and Change**: The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 are 61.00, 64.00, 61.05, 64.00, and 67.56 yuan/ton respectively, with daily price changes of 0.00%, 0.66%, 0.08%, 4.92%, and 3.26%. The price differences between new and old allowances are 3.00, - 2.95, 2.95, and 3.56 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **Transaction Volume**: The total trading volumes of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 are 3.63, 11.60, 20.19, 18.05, and 199.00 tons respectively. The listed agreement trading volumes are 3.63, 0.25, 4.00, 1.38, and 41.05 tons respectively, and the large - scale agreement trading volumes are 0.00, 11.35, 16.19, 16.67, and 157.95 tons respectively [7][8]. - **Transaction Amount**: The total transaction amounts of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 are 714.97, 221.36, 1241.11, 1138.54, and 12074.46 ten - thousand yuan respectively [8]. 3.2 CCER Market Information - The average transaction price of CCER is 63.00 yuan/ton, with a decline of 20.25%. The trading volume is 0.01 tons, the transaction amount is 0.63 ten - thousand yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 860.83 tons [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - As the compliance pressure gradually emerges and the mandatory circulation of quotas is basically released, the upward momentum of carbon prices is starting to accumulate, and carbon prices may enter a stage of trend recovery [2] - Although the quota base carry - over of the steel, cement, and electrolytic aluminum industries has increased to 100,000 tons, the actual procurement enthusiasm of most enterprises may be lower than expected due to the limited quota gap (within 3%) in 2025 [3] - Recently, some newly included industry enterprises have successively started basic carry - over procurement. Attention should be paid to whether the price can stabilize above 60 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Conditions - **CEA**: The increase of the main target continued to expand, breaking through the 65 - yuan mark; 590,000 tons were listed, and 1.064 million tons were traded in bulk. Among different years' CEA, CEA24 had a closing price of 65.43 yuan/ton with a 7.26% increase, a total trading volume of 1.445 million tons, and a listed agreement trading volume of 581,400 tons [2][5] - **CCER**: The listed agreement trading volume was 10,000 tons, and the average trading price was 79.00 yuan/ton, with a 25.37% increase [2][7] Strategy Signal The signal strength is 1 (0 means short - position, ±1 means bullish/bearish bias, ±2 means bullish/bearish) [2]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 202, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release Date: November 27, 2025 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core Views - As the compliance pressure gradually emerges and the mandatory circulation quotas are basically released, the upward momentum of carbon prices begins to accumulate, and carbon prices may enter a stage of trend recovery [6] - Since late October, affected by non-market factors, power generation groups have started to jointly support prices, leading to increased carbon price volatility [6] - The quota base carry-over amount for the steel, cement, and electrolytic aluminum industries has increased to 100,000 tons. However, due to the limited quota gap (within 3%) in 2025 for most enterprises, their actual purchasing enthusiasm may be lower than expected [6] Group 4: Market Quotes CEA - The average price of the listed agreement increased by nearly 2%, and the intraday trading volume increased by 26%. The main target stopped falling and stabilized, with 938,000 tons listed and 2.113 million tons in large - scale transactions [4] - For different years of CEA, the closing prices, price changes, new - old price differences, average large - scale transaction prices, total trading volumes, listed agreement trading volumes, large - scale agreement trading volumes, one - way auction trading volumes, and total transaction amounts vary. For example, CEA24 had a closing price of 56.51 yuan/ton with a 1.71% increase and a total trading volume of 2.476 million tons [8][9] CCER - The listed agreement trading volume was 1,500 tons, and the average transaction price was 60.04 yuan/ton (-3.90%), with a transaction amount of 90,100 yuan. The cumulative trading volume was 6.3389 million tons [10] Group 5: Strategy - Signal Strength: 1 (0 for short - position, ±1 for slightly long/short, ±2 for long/short) [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The price of the main carbon trading target is rising, while the single - day trading volume has declined to around 1.5 million tons. It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap purchase at low prices as soon as possible [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - CEA: The main target rebounded strongly, with 944,000 tons listed and 589,000 tons in bulk transactions. CCER: The volume of listed - agreement transactions was 10,000 tons, and the average transaction price was 51.57 yuan/ton, with a 0.08% increase [4]. - Among different CEA years, CEA23 and CEA24 had price increases of 3.05% and 4.94% respectively, with closing prices of 45.59 yuan/ton and 46.72 yuan/ton [8]. - For CCER, the average transaction price was 51.57 yuan/ton, with a 0.08% increase, the transaction volume was 10,000 tons, and the cumulative transaction volume was 3.9516 million tons [10]. Strategy - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap purchase at low prices as soon as possible [5]. Core Logic - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal. It is expected that the mandatory circulation quotas will be exhausted in November. By the end of October, as the compliance pressure emerges and the release of mandatory circulation quotas nears completion, the upward momentum of carbon prices may accumulate, and carbon prices may enter a stage of trend - based recovery. In late October, affected by non - market factors, power generation groups began to support prices jointly, increasing carbon price fluctuations [6].

Group 1: Report Title and Basic Information - Report title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 170, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release date: October 14, 2025 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The main target has fallen below the 50 - yuan mark and may test the historical bottom [5] - It is recommended that gap - enterprises make batch purchases at low prices before the end of October [6] - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may be the real support for the reversal of carbon prices. Although it is expected that the mandatory circulation allowances will be exhausted by October, anticipatory trading may cause the carbon price to reverse in Q3 [6] - Starting from September, key emission units will gradually formulate trading plans based on the allocation of verified allowances, accelerating the release of mandatory circulation allowances and putting pressure on carbon prices. By the end of October, as the compliance pressure gradually emerges and the release of mandatory circulation allowances nears its end, upward momentum may accumulate and carbon prices may enter a stage of trending recovery [7] Group 4: Market Conditions CEA - The main target has fallen to around 50 yuan. The listed volume is 596,000 tons, and the bulk volume is 506,000 tons [6] - For different CEA years: CEA19 - 20 closed at 65 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change; CEA21 at 59 yuan/ton (0.00% change); CEA22 at 60 yuan/ton (0.00% change); CEA23 at 46.08 yuan/ton (- 9.49% change); CEA24 at 49.03 yuan/ton (- 3.54% change). The new - old price differences are - 6 yuan/ton for CEA21, 1 yuan/ton for CEA22, - 13.92 yuan/ton for CEA23, and 2.95 yuan/ton for CEA24. The total trading volume of CEA23 is 3050 tons, and CEA24 is 107,120 tons. The listed agreement volume of CEA23 is 3050 tons, and CEA24 is 56,510 tons. The bulk agreement volume of CEA24 is 50,610 tons, and the total turnover of CEA21 is 1.4055 million yuan, and CEA24 is 47.9568 million yuan [8][9] CCER - The listed agreement trading volume is 5000 tons, and the average transaction price is 64.20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.95%. The turnover is 321,000 yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 319,810 tons [10] Group 5: Strategies - It is recommended that gap - enterprises make batch purchases at low prices before the end of October [6] Group 6: Core Logic - From September, key emission units will gradually formulate trading plans according to the allocation of verified allowances, accelerating the release of mandatory circulation allowances and putting pressure on carbon prices [7] - By the end of October, as the compliance pressure gradually emerges and the release of mandatory circulation allowances nears its end, upward momentum may accumulate and carbon prices may enter a stage of trending recovery [7] Group 7: Risks - Enterprise irrationality leads to the expiration of allowances; enterprises oversell allowances for cash; non - consideration of cross - industry repurchase risks for allowance avoidance and carry - over; a sharp increase in CCER supply [7]

Report Information - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 167, 2025) [1] - Release Date: September 30, 2025 [3] Investment Strategy - Suggest gap enterprises to purchase in batches at low prices before the end of October [4] - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal, expected in October, but signs may appear in Q3 [4] Core Logic - From September, key emission units will formulate trading plans, accelerating the release of mandatory circulation quotas and pressuring carbon prices [5] - By the end of October, as compliance pressure mounts and quota release nears completion, carbon prices may rise [5] Market Data CEA | Type | CEA19 - 20 | CEA21 | CEA22 | CEA23 | CEA24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | 65.00 | 59.00 | 60.00 | 52.48 | 53.38 | | Price Change (%) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -2.11% | -3.52% | | New - Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | | -6.00 | 1.00 | -7.52 | 0.90 | | Bulk Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 59.16 | 58.46 | | Single - Bidding Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | | Total Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 27.75 | 331.78 | | Listing Agreement Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10.19 | 94.74 | | Bulk Agreement Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 17.55 | | [6] CCER - Transaction Average Price: 68.00 yuan/ton, with a decline of 10.80% - Transaction Amount: 204,000 yuan - Trading Volume: 3,000 tons - Cumulative Trading Volume: 3,187,100 tons [8] Today's Market - CEA: The decline of the main target widened. The listing volume was 1.049 million tons, and the bulk volume was 2.546 million tons [11] - CCER: The listing agreement trading volume was 3,000 tons, and the transaction average price was 68.00 yuan/ton (-10.80%) [11]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pre - holiday trading activity in the carbon market declined, and the main targets continued to decline. It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of October [2]. - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation quotas may be a real support for the reversal of carbon prices. It is expected that the mandatory circulation quotas will be exhausted in October, but anticipatory trading may occur, and signs of a carbon price reversal may be seen in Q3 [2][3]. - From September, key emission units will gradually formulate trading plans based on the allocation of verified quotas, and the accelerated release of mandatory circulation quotas may put pressure on carbon prices. By the end of October, as the compliance pressure gradually emerges and the release of mandatory circulation quotas nears the end, the upward momentum is expected to accumulate, and carbon prices may enter a stage of trending recovery [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) Market - **Trading Volume**: The total volume of listed CEA was 58.5 tons, and the volume of bulk transactions was 116.5 tons. Among different years' CEAs, CEA23 had a total trading volume of 48.85 tons, and CEA24 had a total trading volume of 126.16 tons [2][5]. - **Price**: The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 65.00 yuan/ton, 59.00 yuan/ton, 60.00 yuan/ton, 53.61 yuan/ton, and 55.33 yuan/ton respectively. The price of CEA23 decreased by 4.06%, and that of CEA24 decreased by 1.02% [5]. China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) Market - **Trading Volume and Price**: The volume of listed CCER agreements was 1.89 tons, with a transaction average price of 76.23 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 5.81%. The transaction amount was 143.87 million yuan, and the cumulative trading volume was 318.41 tons [2][7].