全国碳币场行情简报 (2025年第136期) 发布日期:2025-08-12 CEA缩量下跌,CCER成交清淡 1、CEA:CEA22大跌,主力标的延续弱势;挂牌29.3万吨,大宗19.0万吨 2、CCER:挂牌协议成交量0.21万吨,成交均价82.33元/吨（4.26%） 建议缺口企业在8月底前分批逢低采购 策略 核心 逻辑 (1)强制流通配额耗尽的节点或将成为碳价反转的现实支撑。预计到10月中上旬强制流 通配额才会耗尽。然而,预期交易可能会再次上演,这意味着Q3或许就会看到碳价反 转的迹象。 (2)8月前,受强制流通配额释放缓慢和成交意愿不足影响,碳价或维持震荡。9月起, 随着履约压力逐步显现，上涨动能有望释放，价格可能趋势性回升。 1、企业非理性导致配额到期作废;2、企业不看好未来市场选择全部抛售变现;3、未 风险 考虑跨行业回购配额规避结转。 国家看安期货 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | CEA19-20 | CEA21 | CEA22 | CEA23 | CEA24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元/吨) | 71 ...

Report Summary Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - It is recommended that deficit enterprises make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4] - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal, with signs possibly seen in Q3. Carbon prices may fluctuate before August and start to rise in September due to increasing compliance pressure [6] Summary by Directory Market Quotes - CEA: The main target continued to be weak, with 72,000 tons listed and 746,000 tons in bulk transactions [13] - CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 80 tons, and the average transaction price was 78.97 yuan/ton (up 1.24%) [10][13] Carbon Quota (CEA) Latest Market Information | Quota | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change (%) | New-Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | Bulk Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | Total Transaction Volume (10,000 tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CEA19 - 20 | 71.34 | 0.00% | - | N/A | 0.00 | | CEA21 | 70.00 | 0.00% | -1.34 | N/A | 0.00 | | CEA22 | 73.00 | 0.00% | 3.00 | N/A | 0.00 | | CEA23 | 72.80 | -0.18% | -0.20 | 55.25 | 76.67 | | CEA24 | 72.86 | -0.46% | 0.06 | N/A | 5.08 | [8] Voluntary Emission Reduction (CCER) Transaction Information - Average transaction price: 78.97 yuan/ton, up 1.24% - Transaction amount: 59,300 yuan - Transaction volume: 80 tons - Cumulative transaction volume: 2,477,900 tons [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal, with expected trading potentially causing signs of a reversal in Q3, though the actual exhaustion is expected in mid - early October [4] - Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of mandatory circulation quotas and low trading willingness. From September, as compliance pressure mounts, prices may rise [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - CEA (National Carbon Emission Allowance) main targets remain weak, with 11000 tons listed and 20000 tons in bulk deals [2] - CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) has a listed volume of 5700 tons at an average price of 82.29 yuan/ton, a 0.39% increase [2][8] Price Forecast - Carbon prices may remain volatile before August and trend upward from September [4] Investment Strategy - Enterprises with a quota gap are advised to make phased purchases at low prices before August [2] Data Tables - CEA (2019 - 2024) closing prices range from 71.34 to 74.50 yuan/ton, with CEA23 and CEA24 down 0.20% and 0.01% respectively [6] - CCER has a trading volume of 5700 tons, an average price of 82.29 yuan/ton, and an accumulated volume of 2399000 tons [8]

Report Overview - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 124, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release Date: July 25, 2025 [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Views - The average daily trading volume within the week was over 600,000 tons, and the CEA price fluctuated downward. The CEA main contract continued its weakness, with 288,000 tons listed and 0 tons in bulk transactions. The CCER listed agreement trading volume was 2,600 tons, with an average transaction price of 81.97 yuan/ton (0.04% change) [4]. - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4]. - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal. It is expected that the mandatory circulation quotas will be exhausted by mid - October. Anticipatory trading may occur, and signs of a carbon price reversal may be seen in Q3. Before August, the carbon price may remain volatile due to slow release of mandatory circulation quotas and low trading willingness. From September, as compliance pressure emerges, the upward momentum may be released, and the price may rise [6]. Summary by Directory Market Conditions - CEA: The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 71.34 yuan/ton, 74.40 yuan/ton, 74.50 yuan/ton, 74.20 yuan/ton, and 74.04 yuan/ton respectively. The price changes were 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, - 0.32%, and - 0.63% respectively. The total trading volumes were 0.00 tons, 0.00 tons, 1.00 ton, 7.15 tons, and 20.69 tons respectively [8]. - CCER: The trading volume was 2,600 tons, with an average transaction price of 81.97 yuan/ton (0.04% change), and the transaction amount was 211,500 yuan. The cumulative trading volume was 239,320 tons [10]. Strategy - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4]. Core Logic - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal. It is expected that the mandatory circulation quotas will be exhausted by mid - October. Anticipatory trading may occur, and signs of a carbon price reversal may be seen in Q3. Before August, the carbon price may remain volatile due to slow release of mandatory circulation quotas and low trading willingness. From September, as compliance pressure emerges, the upward momentum may be released, and the price may rise [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The forced circulation quota exhaustion node could be a real support for the carbon price reversal, with the exhaustion expected in mid - early October, but anticipatory trading may lead to signs of a carbon price reversal in Q3 [6] - Before August, due to slow release of forced circulation quotas and low trading willingness, the carbon price may remain volatile. From September, as compliance pressure emerges, the upward momentum may be released and the price may rise [6] - It is recommended that deficit enterprises make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Today's Market - The main carbon trading targets showed weak trends, and market transactions were mainly through listing agreements [4] - For CEA, the main target barely closed in the positive territory, with 41.7 tons listed and 12.4 tons in bulk transactions [4] - For CCER, the listing agreement trading volume was 0.16 tons, and the average trading price was 81.94 yuan/ton, with a 0.45% increase [4][10] Carbon Quota (CEA) Market Details | Carbon Quota | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Daily Change (%) | New - Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | Bulk Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | Total Trading Volume (tons) | Listing Agreement Trading Volume (tons) | Bulk Agreement Trading Volume (tons) | Total Transaction Amount (ten thousand yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CEA19 - 20 | 71.34 | 0.00% | - | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2232.13 | | CEA21 | 74.40 | 0.00% | 3.06 | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | CEA22 | 74.50 | 0.40% | 0.10 | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | CEA23 | 74.44 | - 0.25% | - 0.06 | 70.81 | 30.59 | 18.17 | 12.42 | 0.01 | | CEA24 | 74.51 | 0.01% | 0.07 | N/A | 23.49 | 23.49 | 0.00 | 1750.60 | [8][9] CCER Market Details - The average trading price was 81.94 yuan/ton, with a 0.45% increase, the transaction amount was 13.11 ten thousand yuan, the trading volume was 0.16 tons, and the cumulative trading volume was 239.07 tons [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The depletion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a carbon price reversal, with expected signs in Q3, though the actual depletion is projected for mid - early October. Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of allowances and low trading willingness. From September, as compliance pressure mounts, prices may rise [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - CEA: The main target barely closed in the positive. There were 464,000 tons of listed allowances and 223,000 tons of bulk allowances. CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 2,300 tons, with an average trading price of 81.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% [6]. - The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 71.34 yuan/ton, 74.40 yuan/ton, 74.20 yuan/ton, 74.63 yuan/ton, and 74.50 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 0.00%, 3.33%, 0.00%, 0.17%, and 0.04% [10]. - The total trading volumes of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 0.00 tons, 20,000 tons, 123,000 tons, 492,300 tons, and 72,000 tons respectively [10]. - The total trading amounts of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 6.3886 million yuan, 0.00 yuan, 36.4735 million yuan, 53.641 million yuan, and 14,700 yuan respectively [11]. - The average trading price of CCER was 81.57 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.83%, a trading amount of 1.835 million yuan, a trading volume of 2,300 tons, and a cumulative trading volume of 238,910 tons [12]. Strategies - Deficit enterprises are advised to make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [6].

全国碳市场行情简报 (2025年第94期) 国泰君安期货 发布日期:2025-06-13 秒底需求增加,CEA强势反弹 今日 1、CEA:CEA23、24重回70元上方;挂牌1.5万吨,大宗42.0万吨 行情 2、CCER: 挂牌协议成交量0.11万吨,成交均价89.32元/吨（2.34%） 策略 建议缺口企业在8月底前分批逢低采购 (1)2025年剩余40%强制流通配额只能满足部分市场需求，约0.4°0.5亿吨市场需求或由 盈余企业自愿卖出来满足。 核心 逻辑 大宗协议成交量 42.00 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 0. 00 总成交额(万元) 3004. 64 0. 00 0. 00 88. 75 0.00 图表3:CEA大宗成交均价(元/吨) 图表2:CEA收盘价(元/吨) 元/吨 -- 碳配额19-20 --- 碳配额21 -- 碳配额22 元/吨 -- 碳配额19-20 -- 碳配额21 -- 碳配额22 120 120 碳配额24 碳配额23 碳配额24 碳配额23 100 100 80 80 60 60 40 2023-07 2024-07 2022-07 2021-07 2024-07 ...

(1)2025年剩余40%强制流通配额只能满足部分市场需求，约0.4°0.5亿吨市场需求或由 盈余企业自愿卖出来满足。 核心 逻辑 2CEA价格跌至70元附近后,抄底需求有所显现,但目前强制流通配额释放不足,潜在 抛压仍存、市场价格震荡磨底,仍缺乏上行驱动;考虑到核查节点,6月中下旬成交量 有望攀升,预计6月底部区间62~66元/吨。 3若盈余企业卖出节点继续后移,价格底部或越低,反弹高度越有限;若单日成交量 能够明显起量,强劲上涨动能或出现在三季度末。 风险 全国碳市场行情简报 (2025年第93期) 国泰君安期货 发布日期:2025-06-12 CEA缩量反弹,参与者挺价意愿较强 今日 策略 建议缺口企业在8月底前分批逢低采购 1、企业非理性导致配额到期作废：2、企业不看好未来市场选择全部抛售变现；3、企 业2023年度、2024年度未足额履约;4、未考虑跨行业回购配额规避结转。 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | CEA19-20 | CEA21 | CEA22 | CEA23 | CEA24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价 ...

Report Information - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 89, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release Date: 2025-06-06 [3] Investment Strategy - Strategy Suggestion: Enterprises with a quota gap are advised to make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August. In 2025, the remaining 40% of the mandatory circulation quotas can only meet part of the market demand, and about 0.4 - 0.5 billion tons of market demand may be met by the voluntary sales of surplus enterprises [4]. Core Logic - After the CEA price dropped to around 70 yuan/ton, there was some bottom-fishing demand. However, the release of mandatory circulation quotas is currently insufficient, there is still potential selling pressure, the market price is oscillating at the bottom, and there is still a lack of upward momentum. Considering the verification node, trading volume is expected to rise in mid-to-late June, and the bottom range in June is estimated to be 62 - 66 yuan/ton. - If the selling node of surplus enterprises continues to be postponed, the price bottom may be lower and the rebound height more limited. If the single-day trading volume can increase significantly, strong upward momentum may appear at the end of the third quarter [6]. Market Quotes CEA Spot Quotes | | CEA19 - 20 | CEA21 | CEA22 | CEA23 | CEA24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | 67.00 | 67.50 | 67.00 | 69.26 | 68.76 | | Daily Change (%) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.36% | 0.98% | | New - Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | | 0.50 | -0.50 | 2.26 | -0.50 | | Bulk Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 68.45 | | Total Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.92 | 121.94 | | Listing Agreement Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.92 | 6.94 | | Bulk Agreement Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 115.00 | | Total Turnover (10,000 yuan) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8349.17 | [8][9] CCER Trading Information - Transaction Average Price: 85.00 yuan/ton - Daily Change: 0.00% - Turnover: 0.85 million yuan - Trading Volume: 0.01 million tons - Cumulative Trading Volume: 188.06 million tons [10] Today's Market Summary - CEA: CEA23 and CEA24 rebounded slightly. The listing trading volume was 11.9 million tons, and the bulk trading volume was 115.0 million tons. - CCER: The listing agreement trading volume was 0.01 million tons, and the transaction average price was 85.00 yuan/ton (0.00% change) [12]

全国碳市场行情简报 (2025年第88期) 策略 建议缺口企业在8月底前分批逢低采购 (1)2025年剩余40%强制流通配额只能满足部分市场需求，约0.4°0.5亿吨市场需求或由 盈余企业自愿卖出来满足。 核心 逻辑 2CEA价格跌至70元附近后,抄底需求有所显现,但目前强制流通配额释放不足,潜在 抛压仍存、市场价格震荡磨底,仍缺乏上行驱动;考虑到核查节点,6月中下旬成交量 有望攀升,预计6月底部区间62~66元/吨。 国泰君受期货 发布日期:2025-06-04 今日 行情 近期日均成交量低于40万吨,CEA价格延续弱势 | | CEA19-20 | CEA21 | CEA22 | CEA23 | CEA24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元/吨) | 70. 00 | 67. 50 | 67. 00 | 67. 61 | 67.90 | | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.00% | -1.46% | -0. 21% | -1.37% | 0. 58% | | 新旧价差(元/吨) | | -2. 50 | -0. 50 | 0. 61 | 0. 29 | ...