全国碳币场行情简报 (2025年第122期) 国家君女期货 发布日期:2025-07-23 今日 CEA21小量拉高价格,主力标的勉强收红 1、CEA:主力标的勉强收红:挂牌46.4万吨,大宗22.3万吨 行情 随着履约压力逐步显现,上涨动能有望释放,价格可能趋势性回升。 1、企业非理性导致配额到期作废;2、企业不看好未来市场选择全部地售变现;3、未 风险 考虑跨行业回购配额规避结转。 2、CCER:挂牌协议成交量0.23万吨,成交均价81.57元/吨（-0.83%） 建议缺口企业在8月底前分批逢低采购 策略 核心 逻辑 (1)强制流通配额耗尽的节点或将成为碳价反转的现实支撑。预计到10月中上旬强制流 通配额才会耗尽。然而,预期交易可能会再次上演,这意味着Q3或许就会看到碳价反 转的迹象。 228月前,受强制流通配额释放缓慢和成交意愿不足影响,碳价或维持震荡。9月起, 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | CEA19-20 | CEA21 | CEA22 | CEA23 | CEA24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元/吨) | ...

Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that enterprises with a quota gap should make phased low - cost purchases before the end of August. The depletion of the mandatory circulation quota may support the carbon price reversal. With less than half of the 2025 mandatory circulation quota released, it's expected to be exhausted by mid - October. Anticipatory trading may lead to a carbon price reversal in Q3. Before August, the carbon price may fluctuate due to slow quota release and low trading willingness. From September, the price may rise as compliance pressure mounts, but price volatility may intensify in the second half of the year [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - CEA: The main targets showed mixed trends and were generally weak. The listed volume was 3.1 thousand tons, and the bulk volume was 0.0 thousand tons. The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 71.34 yuan/ton, 71.00 yuan/ton, 74.50 yuan/ton, 74.11 yuan/ton, and 74.50 yuan/ton respectively, with the CEA23's price dropping by 0.86% and CEA24 rising by 0.04%. The total trading volume of CEA23 was 2.11 thousand tons, and that of CEA24 was 1.00 thousand tons [3][6] - CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 0.15 thousand tons, the average trading price was 83.05 yuan/ton (down 0.51%), the trading amount was 124,700 yuan, and the cumulative trading volume was 237,660 tons [3][8]