Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal, expected to occur around October, but anticipatory trading could bring signs of reversal in Q3 [6]. - Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of mandatory circulation quotas and low trading willingness. Starting from September, as compliance pressure mounts, prices may rise [6]. - It is recommended that deficit enterprises make phased purchases at low prices before the end of September [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Today's Market - CEA24 single - item auction was sold at the reserve price with a 95% unsold rate due to price - raising behavior yesterday [4]. - For CEA, the main targets declined to varying degrees, with 36.4 tons listed and 89.7 tons in bulk transactions [4]. - For CCER, the listed agreement trading volume was 0.24 tons, and the average transaction price was 80.97 yuan/ton, a 1.21% change [4]. Carbon Quota (CEA) Data | CEA Type | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Daily Change (%) | New - Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | Bulk Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | Total Transaction Volume (tons) | Listed Agreement Transaction Volume (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CEA19 - 20 | 69.00 | 0.00% | - | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | | CEA21 | 70.00 | 0.00% | 1.00 | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | | CEA22 | 69.72 | - 0.83% | - 0.28 | N/A | 1.05 | 1.05 | | CEA23 | 69.11 | - 0.59% | - 0.61 | 66.48 | 62.33 | 15.19 | | CEA24 | 69.42 | - 0.52% | 0.31 | 69.34 | 63.28 | 20.20 | [8] CCER Data - The average transaction price of CCER was 80.97 yuan/ton, with a 1.21% change, a trading volume of 0.24 tons, and a turnover of 19.11 million yuan. The cumulative trading volume was 250.40 tons [10].

Report Information - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 147, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release Date: August 27, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a carbon price reversal, expected around October, but anticipatory trading could bring signs of reversal in Q3 [6] - Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of mandatory allowances and low trading willingness; from September, rising pressure from compliance may drive prices up [6] Summary by Directory Market Conditions - CEA: Main targets show divergent trends, with 567,000 tons listed and 1.717 million tons in bulk transactions [4] - CCER: The listed agreement volume is 2,200 tons, and the average transaction price is 80 yuan/ton, down 2.42% [4][10] Strategies - Deficit enterprises are advised to make phased low - price purchases before the end of August [4] Core Logic - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may be a real support for carbon price reversal, and anticipatory trading may bring forward the reversal time [6] - Carbon price trends are affected by the release of mandatory allowances, trading willingness, and compliance pressure at different times [6] Data Tables - CEA: Different vintages have different closing prices, price changes, and trading volumes. For example, CEA24 has a closing price of 69.78 yuan/ton, up 0.56%, and a bulk transaction average price of 62.17 yuan/ton [8] - CCER: The current average transaction price is 80 yuan/ton, with a 2.42% decline, a transaction volume of 2,200 tons, and a cumulative transaction volume of 250,160 tons [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a carbon price reversal, with an expected depletion by mid - early October, but anticipatory trading could lead to signs of a reversal in Q3 [5] - Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of mandatory circulation allowances and low trading willingness; starting from September, as compliance pressure builds, prices may rise [5] - The report suggests that enterprises with a carbon allowance gap should make phased purchases at low prices before the end of August [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) Market - CEA22 is stable, while the main target continues to decline. There are 160,000 tons for listing and 100,000 tons for bulk trading [3] - CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 have closing prices of 71.34 yuan/ton, 70.00 yuan/ton, 70.80 yuan/ton, 72.42 yuan/ton, and 72.47 yuan/ton respectively, with CEA23 and CEA24 having a decline of - 0.29% and - 0.48% [7] - The total trading volume of CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 are 100,000 tons, 56,900 tons, and 103,000 tons respectively [7] China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) Market - The listing agreement trading volume is 80,000 tons, and the average trading price is 80.25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.53%. The trading amount is 6.5 million yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 2.4808 million tons [3][9]

Report Overview - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 136, 2025) [1] - Release Date: August 12, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - CEA shows a decline in volume and price, with CEA22 dropping significantly and the main targets remaining weak; CCER has light trading volume [2] - It is recommended that enterprises with carbon quota gaps make phased low - price purchases before the end of August [3] - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal. Expected depletion is in mid - early October, but signs of reversal may appear in Q3. Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate, and from September, prices may rise due to increasing compliance pressure [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs CEA Market - CEA22 dropped by 3.01%, with a closing price of 70.80 yuan/ton. CEA23 and CEA24 also declined slightly, by 0.23% and 0.05% respectively. CEA19 - 20 and CEA21 remained unchanged [7] - The total CEA volume includes 29.3 tons in the listing market and 19.0 tons in the bulk market [2] CCER Market - The CCER listing agreement trading volume was 0.21 tons, with an average transaction price of 82.33 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 4.26%, and a transaction amount of 17,500 yuan [2][9]

Report Summary Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - It is recommended that deficit enterprises make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4] - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal, with signs possibly seen in Q3. Carbon prices may fluctuate before August and start to rise in September due to increasing compliance pressure [6] Summary by Directory Market Quotes - CEA: The main target continued to be weak, with 72,000 tons listed and 746,000 tons in bulk transactions [13] - CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 80 tons, and the average transaction price was 78.97 yuan/ton (up 1.24%) [10][13] Carbon Quota (CEA) Latest Market Information | Quota | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change (%) | New-Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | Bulk Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | Total Transaction Volume (10,000 tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CEA19 - 20 | 71.34 | 0.00% | - | N/A | 0.00 | | CEA21 | 70.00 | 0.00% | -1.34 | N/A | 0.00 | | CEA22 | 73.00 | 0.00% | 3.00 | N/A | 0.00 | | CEA23 | 72.80 | -0.18% | -0.20 | 55.25 | 76.67 | | CEA24 | 72.86 | -0.46% | 0.06 | N/A | 5.08 | [8] Voluntary Emission Reduction (CCER) Transaction Information - Average transaction price: 78.97 yuan/ton, up 1.24% - Transaction amount: 59,300 yuan - Transaction volume: 80 tons - Cumulative transaction volume: 2,477,900 tons [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The depletion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a carbon price reversal, with expected signs in Q3, though the actual depletion is projected for mid - early October. Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of allowances and low trading willingness. From September, as compliance pressure mounts, prices may rise [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - CEA: The main target barely closed in the positive. There were 464,000 tons of listed allowances and 223,000 tons of bulk allowances. CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 2,300 tons, with an average trading price of 81.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% [6]. - The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 71.34 yuan/ton, 74.40 yuan/ton, 74.20 yuan/ton, 74.63 yuan/ton, and 74.50 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 0.00%, 3.33%, 0.00%, 0.17%, and 0.04% [10]. - The total trading volumes of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 0.00 tons, 20,000 tons, 123,000 tons, 492,300 tons, and 72,000 tons respectively [10]. - The total trading amounts of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 6.3886 million yuan, 0.00 yuan, 36.4735 million yuan, 53.641 million yuan, and 14,700 yuan respectively [11]. - The average trading price of CCER was 81.57 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.83%, a trading amount of 1.835 million yuan, a trading volume of 2,300 tons, and a cumulative trading volume of 238,910 tons [12]. Strategies - Deficit enterprises are advised to make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [6].

Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that enterprises with a quota gap should make phased low - cost purchases before the end of August. The depletion of the mandatory circulation quota may support the carbon price reversal. With less than half of the 2025 mandatory circulation quota released, it's expected to be exhausted by mid - October. Anticipatory trading may lead to a carbon price reversal in Q3. Before August, the carbon price may fluctuate due to slow quota release and low trading willingness. From September, the price may rise as compliance pressure mounts, but price volatility may intensify in the second half of the year [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Quotes - CEA: The main targets showed mixed trends and were generally weak. The listed volume was 3.1 thousand tons, and the bulk volume was 0.0 thousand tons. The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 71.34 yuan/ton, 71.00 yuan/ton, 74.50 yuan/ton, 74.11 yuan/ton, and 74.50 yuan/ton respectively, with the CEA23's price dropping by 0.86% and CEA24 rising by 0.04%. The total trading volume of CEA23 was 2.11 thousand tons, and that of CEA24 was 1.00 thousand tons [3][6] - CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 0.15 thousand tons, the average trading price was 83.05 yuan/ton (down 0.51%), the trading amount was 124,700 yuan, and the cumulative trading volume was 237,660 tons [3][8]