全国碳币场行情简报 (2025年第167期) 上不希安期货 | | CEA19-20 | CEA21 | CEA22 | CEA23 | CEA24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元/吨) | 65. 00 | 59.00 | 60.00 | 52. 48 | 53. 38 | | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.00% | 0. 00% | 0.00% | -2. 11% | -3.52% | | 新旧价差(元/吨) | | -6. 00 | 1.00 | -7. 52 | 0. 90 | | 大宗成交均价(元/吨) | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 59.16 | 58. 46 | | 单项竞价成交均价(元/吨) | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | | 总成交量(万吨) | 0. 00 | 0.00 | 0. 00 | 27.75 | 331.78 | | 挂牌协议成交量 | 0. 00 | 0. 00 | 0. 00 | 10. 19 | 94. 74 | 大宗协议成交量 237. 05 0.00 0. ...

全国碳币场行情简报 (2025年第166期) 310月底,随着履约压力逐步显现、强制流通配额释放接近尾声,上涨动能有望积 ,碳价可能进入趋势性回升阶段。 聚, 1、企业非理性导致配额到期作废;2、企业不看好未来市场选择超额抛售变现;3、未 风险 考虑跨行业回购配额规避结转;4、CCER供应量剧增。 图表1:全国碳配额(CEA)最新行情信息-现货 | | CEA19-20 | CEA21 | CEA22 | CEA23 | CEA24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价(元/吨) | 65.00 | 59.00 | 60. 00 | 53. 61 | 55. 33 | | 涨跌幅(%) | 0.00% | 0. 00% | 0.00% | -4.06% | -1.02% | | 新旧价差(元/吨) | | -6. 00 | 1.00 | -6. 39 | 1.72 | | 大宗成交均价(元/吨) | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | 59.77 | 58.77 | | 单项竞价成交均价(元/吨) | #N/A | #N/A | #N/A | #N/ ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 164, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release date: September 25, 2025 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - CEA price rebounds, with daily trading volume increasing by 16.5% compared to the previous day [5] - From September, key emission - control units will formulate trading plans based on the allocation of verified allowances, accelerating the release of mandatory circulation allowances, and carbon prices may face downward pressure. By the end of October, as compliance pressure gradually emerges and the release of mandatory circulation allowances nears completion, upward momentum is expected to accumulate, and carbon prices may enter a stage of trend - based recovery [8] - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may be a real support for carbon price reversal. It is expected that the mandatory circulation allowances will be exhausted by October, but anticipatory trading may occur, and signs of carbon price reversal may be seen as early as September [7] - It is recommended that enterprises with allowance gaps make phased purchases at low prices before the end of October [6] Group 4: Market Conditions Summary CEA Market - CEA24 shows weak and stable operation, while other targets show slight rebounds. The volume of listed allowances is 813,000 tons, and the volume of bulk transactions is 845,000 tons [6] - CEA19 - 20 closes at 65.00 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change; CEA21 closes at 59.00 yuan/ton with a 5.36% increase; CEA22 closes at 60.00 yuan/ton with a 3.43% increase; CEA23 closes at 57.13 yuan/ton with a 2.62% increase; CEA24 closes at 57.65 yuan/ton with a - 0.36% change [10] - The total trading volume of CEA19 - 20 is 0.00 tons; CEA21 is 0.00 tons; CEA22 is 18,500 tons; CEA23 is 646,100 tons; CEA24 is 993,100 tons [10] - The total trading amount of CEA19 - 20 is 58,991,100 yuan; CEA21 is 1,108,400 yuan; CEA22 is 41,935,500 yuan; CEA23 is 0.00 yuan; CEA24 is 60,000 yuan [11] CCER Market - The volume of listed agreement transactions of CCER is 139,800 tons, and the average transaction price is 78.30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.14%. The trading amount is 10,948,500 yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 3,160,500 tons [12]

Report Information - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 147, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release Date: August 27, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a carbon price reversal, expected around October, but anticipatory trading could bring signs of reversal in Q3 [6] - Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of mandatory allowances and low trading willingness; from September, rising pressure from compliance may drive prices up [6] Summary by Directory Market Conditions - CEA: Main targets show divergent trends, with 567,000 tons listed and 1.717 million tons in bulk transactions [4] - CCER: The listed agreement volume is 2,200 tons, and the average transaction price is 80 yuan/ton, down 2.42% [4][10] Strategies - Deficit enterprises are advised to make phased low - price purchases before the end of August [4] Core Logic - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may be a real support for carbon price reversal, and anticipatory trading may bring forward the reversal time [6] - Carbon price trends are affected by the release of mandatory allowances, trading willingness, and compliance pressure at different times [6] Data Tables - CEA: Different vintages have different closing prices, price changes, and trading volumes. For example, CEA24 has a closing price of 69.78 yuan/ton, up 0.56%, and a bulk transaction average price of 62.17 yuan/ton [8] - CCER: The current average transaction price is 80 yuan/ton, with a 2.42% decline, a transaction volume of 2,200 tons, and a cumulative transaction volume of 250,160 tons [10]

Report Overview - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 136, 2025) [1] - Release Date: August 12, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - CEA shows a decline in volume and price, with CEA22 dropping significantly and the main targets remaining weak; CCER has light trading volume [2] - It is recommended that enterprises with carbon quota gaps make phased low - price purchases before the end of August [3] - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal. Expected depletion is in mid - early October, but signs of reversal may appear in Q3. Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate, and from September, prices may rise due to increasing compliance pressure [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs CEA Market - CEA22 dropped by 3.01%, with a closing price of 70.80 yuan/ton. CEA23 and CEA24 also declined slightly, by 0.23% and 0.05% respectively. CEA19 - 20 and CEA21 remained unchanged [7] - The total CEA volume includes 29.3 tons in the listing market and 19.0 tons in the bulk market [2] CCER Market - The CCER listing agreement trading volume was 0.21 tons, with an average transaction price of 82.33 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 4.26%, and a transaction amount of 17,500 yuan [2][9]

Report Summary Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - It is recommended that deficit enterprises make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4] - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal, with signs possibly seen in Q3. Carbon prices may fluctuate before August and start to rise in September due to increasing compliance pressure [6] Summary by Directory Market Quotes - CEA: The main target continued to be weak, with 72,000 tons listed and 746,000 tons in bulk transactions [13] - CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 80 tons, and the average transaction price was 78.97 yuan/ton (up 1.24%) [10][13] Carbon Quota (CEA) Latest Market Information | Quota | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change (%) | New-Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | Bulk Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | Total Transaction Volume (10,000 tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CEA19 - 20 | 71.34 | 0.00% | - | N/A | 0.00 | | CEA21 | 70.00 | 0.00% | -1.34 | N/A | 0.00 | | CEA22 | 73.00 | 0.00% | 3.00 | N/A | 0.00 | | CEA23 | 72.80 | -0.18% | -0.20 | 55.25 | 76.67 | | CEA24 | 72.86 | -0.46% | 0.06 | N/A | 5.08 | [8] Voluntary Emission Reduction (CCER) Transaction Information - Average transaction price: 78.97 yuan/ton, up 1.24% - Transaction amount: 59,300 yuan - Transaction volume: 80 tons - Cumulative transaction volume: 2,477,900 tons [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal, with expected trading potentially causing signs of a reversal in Q3, though the actual exhaustion is expected in mid - early October [4] - Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of mandatory circulation quotas and low trading willingness. From September, as compliance pressure mounts, prices may rise [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - CEA (National Carbon Emission Allowance) main targets remain weak, with 11000 tons listed and 20000 tons in bulk deals [2] - CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) has a listed volume of 5700 tons at an average price of 82.29 yuan/ton, a 0.39% increase [2][8] Price Forecast - Carbon prices may remain volatile before August and trend upward from September [4] Investment Strategy - Enterprises with a quota gap are advised to make phased purchases at low prices before August [2] Data Tables - CEA (2019 - 2024) closing prices range from 71.34 to 74.50 yuan/ton, with CEA23 and CEA24 down 0.20% and 0.01% respectively [6] - CCER has a trading volume of 5700 tons, an average price of 82.29 yuan/ton, and an accumulated volume of 2399000 tons [8]

Report Overview - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 124, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release Date: July 25, 2025 [3] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. Core Views - The average daily trading volume within the week was over 600,000 tons, and the CEA price fluctuated downward. The CEA main contract continued its weakness, with 288,000 tons listed and 0 tons in bulk transactions. The CCER listed agreement trading volume was 2,600 tons, with an average transaction price of 81.97 yuan/ton (0.04% change) [4]. - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4]. - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal. It is expected that the mandatory circulation quotas will be exhausted by mid - October. Anticipatory trading may occur, and signs of a carbon price reversal may be seen in Q3. Before August, the carbon price may remain volatile due to slow release of mandatory circulation quotas and low trading willingness. From September, as compliance pressure emerges, the upward momentum may be released, and the price may rise [6]. Summary by Directory Market Conditions - CEA: The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 71.34 yuan/ton, 74.40 yuan/ton, 74.50 yuan/ton, 74.20 yuan/ton, and 74.04 yuan/ton respectively. The price changes were 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.00%, - 0.32%, and - 0.63% respectively. The total trading volumes were 0.00 tons, 0.00 tons, 1.00 ton, 7.15 tons, and 20.69 tons respectively [8]. - CCER: The trading volume was 2,600 tons, with an average transaction price of 81.97 yuan/ton (0.04% change), and the transaction amount was 211,500 yuan. The cumulative trading volume was 239,320 tons [10]. Strategy - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4]. Core Logic - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal. It is expected that the mandatory circulation quotas will be exhausted by mid - October. Anticipatory trading may occur, and signs of a carbon price reversal may be seen in Q3. Before August, the carbon price may remain volatile due to slow release of mandatory circulation quotas and low trading willingness. From September, as compliance pressure emerges, the upward momentum may be released, and the price may rise [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The forced circulation quota exhaustion node could be a real support for the carbon price reversal, with the exhaustion expected in mid - early October, but anticipatory trading may lead to signs of a carbon price reversal in Q3 [6] - Before August, due to slow release of forced circulation quotas and low trading willingness, the carbon price may remain volatile. From September, as compliance pressure emerges, the upward momentum may be released and the price may rise [6] - It is recommended that deficit enterprises make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Today's Market - The main carbon trading targets showed weak trends, and market transactions were mainly through listing agreements [4] - For CEA, the main target barely closed in the positive territory, with 41.7 tons listed and 12.4 tons in bulk transactions [4] - For CCER, the listing agreement trading volume was 0.16 tons, and the average trading price was 81.94 yuan/ton, with a 0.45% increase [4][10] Carbon Quota (CEA) Market Details | Carbon Quota | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Daily Change (%) | New - Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | Bulk Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | Total Trading Volume (tons) | Listing Agreement Trading Volume (tons) | Bulk Agreement Trading Volume (tons) | Total Transaction Amount (ten thousand yuan) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CEA19 - 20 | 71.34 | 0.00% | - | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2232.13 | | CEA21 | 74.40 | 0.00% | 3.06 | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | CEA22 | 74.50 | 0.40% | 0.10 | N/A | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | | CEA23 | 74.44 | - 0.25% | - 0.06 | 70.81 | 30.59 | 18.17 | 12.42 | 0.01 | | CEA24 | 74.51 | 0.01% | 0.07 | N/A | 23.49 | 23.49 | 0.00 | 1750.60 | [8][9] CCER Market Details - The average trading price was 81.94 yuan/ton, with a 0.45% increase, the transaction amount was 13.11 ten thousand yuan, the trading volume was 0.16 tons, and the cumulative trading volume was 239.07 tons [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The depletion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a carbon price reversal, with expected signs in Q3, though the actual depletion is projected for mid - early October. Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of allowances and low trading willingness. From September, as compliance pressure mounts, prices may rise [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions - CEA: The main target barely closed in the positive. There were 464,000 tons of listed allowances and 223,000 tons of bulk allowances. CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 2,300 tons, with an average trading price of 81.57 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.83% [6]. - The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 71.34 yuan/ton, 74.40 yuan/ton, 74.20 yuan/ton, 74.63 yuan/ton, and 74.50 yuan/ton respectively, with daily changes of 0.00%, 3.33%, 0.00%, 0.17%, and 0.04% [10]. - The total trading volumes of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 0.00 tons, 20,000 tons, 123,000 tons, 492,300 tons, and 72,000 tons respectively [10]. - The total trading amounts of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 6.3886 million yuan, 0.00 yuan, 36.4735 million yuan, 53.641 million yuan, and 14,700 yuan respectively [11]. - The average trading price of CCER was 81.57 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.83%, a trading amount of 1.835 million yuan, a trading volume of 2,300 tons, and a cumulative trading volume of 238,910 tons [12]. Strategies - Deficit enterprises are advised to make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [6].