Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint - The price of the main carbon trading target is rising, while the single - day trading volume has declined to around 1.5 million tons. It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap purchase at low prices as soon as possible [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content Market Conditions - CEA: The main target rebounded strongly, with 944,000 tons listed and 589,000 tons in bulk transactions. CCER: The volume of listed - agreement transactions was 10,000 tons, and the average transaction price was 51.57 yuan/ton, with a 0.08% increase [4]. - Among different CEA years, CEA23 and CEA24 had price increases of 3.05% and 4.94% respectively, with closing prices of 45.59 yuan/ton and 46.72 yuan/ton [8]. - For CCER, the average transaction price was 51.57 yuan/ton, with a 0.08% increase, the transaction volume was 10,000 tons, and the cumulative transaction volume was 3.9516 million tons [10]. Strategy - It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap purchase at low prices as soon as possible [5]. Core Logic - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal. It is expected that the mandatory circulation quotas will be exhausted in November. By the end of October, as the compliance pressure emerges and the release of mandatory circulation quotas nears completion, the upward momentum of carbon prices may accumulate, and carbon prices may enter a stage of trend - based recovery. In late October, affected by non - market factors, power generation groups began to support prices jointly, increasing carbon price fluctuations [6].

Core Insights - The Fudan University Sustainable Development Research Center released the carbon price index for November 2025, indicating a significant decline in carbon emission allowance prices and green certificate prices [1][2]. Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) Prices - The expected buy price for the national carbon emission allowance (CEA) in November 2025 is 47.59 yuan/ton, with a sell price of 55.42 yuan/ton, resulting in a midpoint price of 51.51 yuan/ton. The buy price index decreased by 14.08%, and the sell price index decreased by 8.59% [1]. - For December 2025, the expected buy price is 55.63 yuan/ton, with a sell price of 65.35 yuan/ton, leading to a midpoint price of 60.50 yuan/ton [1]. Green Certificate Prices - The expected price for green certificates from centralized projects for 2025 is 4.24 yuan/unit, with a price index of 77.09. For distributed projects, the price is 3.65 yuan/unit (index 74.06), and for biomass power generation, it is 3.81 yuan/unit (index 73.84) [2]. - All green certificate prices showed a decline compared to October 2025, with biomass power generation certificates experiencing the largest drop [2]. Market Performance Overview - In October, the average closing price for CEA was 54.76 yuan/ton, down 12.4% from September's average of 62.51 yuan/ton. The carbon price exhibited a significant drop followed by a slight rebound [2]. - The average daily trading volume for carbon allowances was 1.7214 million tons, an increase of 15.81% compared to September's 1.4864 million tons, indicating active market trading as the compliance period approaches [2]. Global Carbon Market Trends - The global carbon market saw an overall increase in trading volume in October, although the Korean carbon market experienced a slight decline. The price trends varied across major global carbon markets, with mixed performance in trading prices [3].

Group 1: Report Title and Basic Information - Report title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 170, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release date: October 14, 2025 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The main target has fallen below the 50 - yuan mark and may test the historical bottom [5] - It is recommended that gap - enterprises make batch purchases at low prices before the end of October [6] - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may be the real support for the reversal of carbon prices. Although it is expected that the mandatory circulation allowances will be exhausted by October, anticipatory trading may cause the carbon price to reverse in Q3 [6] - Starting from September, key emission units will gradually formulate trading plans based on the allocation of verified allowances, accelerating the release of mandatory circulation allowances and putting pressure on carbon prices. By the end of October, as the compliance pressure gradually emerges and the release of mandatory circulation allowances nears its end, upward momentum may accumulate and carbon prices may enter a stage of trending recovery [7] Group 4: Market Conditions CEA - The main target has fallen to around 50 yuan. The listed volume is 596,000 tons, and the bulk volume is 506,000 tons [6] - For different CEA years: CEA19 - 20 closed at 65 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change; CEA21 at 59 yuan/ton (0.00% change); CEA22 at 60 yuan/ton (0.00% change); CEA23 at 46.08 yuan/ton (- 9.49% change); CEA24 at 49.03 yuan/ton (- 3.54% change). The new - old price differences are - 6 yuan/ton for CEA21, 1 yuan/ton for CEA22, - 13.92 yuan/ton for CEA23, and 2.95 yuan/ton for CEA24. The total trading volume of CEA23 is 3050 tons, and CEA24 is 107,120 tons. The listed agreement volume of CEA23 is 3050 tons, and CEA24 is 56,510 tons. The bulk agreement volume of CEA24 is 50,610 tons, and the total turnover of CEA21 is 1.4055 million yuan, and CEA24 is 47.9568 million yuan [8][9] CCER - The listed agreement trading volume is 5000 tons, and the average transaction price is 64.20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.95%. The turnover is 321,000 yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 319,810 tons [10] Group 5: Strategies - It is recommended that gap - enterprises make batch purchases at low prices before the end of October [6] Group 6: Core Logic - From September, key emission units will gradually formulate trading plans according to the allocation of verified allowances, accelerating the release of mandatory circulation allowances and putting pressure on carbon prices [7] - By the end of October, as the compliance pressure gradually emerges and the release of mandatory circulation allowances nears its end, upward momentum may accumulate and carbon prices may enter a stage of trending recovery [7] Group 7: Risks - Enterprise irrationality leads to the expiration of allowances; enterprises oversell allowances for cash; non - consideration of cross - industry repurchase risks for allowance avoidance and carry - over; a sharp increase in CCER supply [7]

Report Information - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 167, 2025) [1] - Release Date: September 30, 2025 [3] Investment Strategy - Suggest gap enterprises to purchase in batches at low prices before the end of October [4] - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal, expected in October, but signs may appear in Q3 [4] Core Logic - From September, key emission units will formulate trading plans, accelerating the release of mandatory circulation quotas and pressuring carbon prices [5] - By the end of October, as compliance pressure mounts and quota release nears completion, carbon prices may rise [5] Market Data CEA | Type | CEA19 - 20 | CEA21 | CEA22 | CEA23 | CEA24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | 65.00 | 59.00 | 60.00 | 52.48 | 53.38 | | Price Change (%) | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | -2.11% | -3.52% | | New - Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | | -6.00 | 1.00 | -7.52 | 0.90 | | Bulk Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | N/A | N/A | N/A | 59.16 | 58.46 | | Single - Bidding Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | | Total Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 27.75 | 331.78 | | Listing Agreement Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10.19 | 94.74 | | Bulk Agreement Trading Volume (10,000 tons) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 17.55 | | [6] CCER - Transaction Average Price: 68.00 yuan/ton, with a decline of 10.80% - Transaction Amount: 204,000 yuan - Trading Volume: 3,000 tons - Cumulative Trading Volume: 3,187,100 tons [8] Today's Market - CEA: The decline of the main target widened. The listing volume was 1.049 million tons, and the bulk volume was 2.546 million tons [11] - CCER: The listing agreement trading volume was 3,000 tons, and the transaction average price was 68.00 yuan/ton (-10.80%) [11]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The pre - holiday trading activity in the carbon market declined, and the main targets continued to decline. It is recommended that enterprises with a quota gap make batch purchases at low prices before the end of October [2]. - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation quotas may be a real support for the reversal of carbon prices. It is expected that the mandatory circulation quotas will be exhausted in October, but anticipatory trading may occur, and signs of a carbon price reversal may be seen in Q3 [2][3]. - From September, key emission units will gradually formulate trading plans based on the allocation of verified quotas, and the accelerated release of mandatory circulation quotas may put pressure on carbon prices. By the end of October, as the compliance pressure gradually emerges and the release of mandatory circulation quotas nears the end, the upward momentum is expected to accumulate, and carbon prices may enter a stage of trending recovery [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Carbon Emission Allowance (CEA) Market - **Trading Volume**: The total volume of listed CEA was 58.5 tons, and the volume of bulk transactions was 116.5 tons. Among different years' CEAs, CEA23 had a total trading volume of 48.85 tons, and CEA24 had a total trading volume of 126.16 tons [2][5]. - **Price**: The closing prices of CEA19 - 20, CEA21, CEA22, CEA23, and CEA24 were 65.00 yuan/ton, 59.00 yuan/ton, 60.00 yuan/ton, 53.61 yuan/ton, and 55.33 yuan/ton respectively. The price of CEA23 decreased by 4.06%, and that of CEA24 decreased by 1.02% [5]. China Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) Market - **Trading Volume and Price**: The volume of listed CCER agreements was 1.89 tons, with a transaction average price of 76.23 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 5.81%. The transaction amount was 143.87 million yuan, and the cumulative trading volume was 318.41 tons [2][7].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 164, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release date: September 25, 2025 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Views - CEA price rebounds, with daily trading volume increasing by 16.5% compared to the previous day [5] - From September, key emission - control units will formulate trading plans based on the allocation of verified allowances, accelerating the release of mandatory circulation allowances, and carbon prices may face downward pressure. By the end of October, as compliance pressure gradually emerges and the release of mandatory circulation allowances nears completion, upward momentum is expected to accumulate, and carbon prices may enter a stage of trend - based recovery [8] - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may be a real support for carbon price reversal. It is expected that the mandatory circulation allowances will be exhausted by October, but anticipatory trading may occur, and signs of carbon price reversal may be seen as early as September [7] - It is recommended that enterprises with allowance gaps make phased purchases at low prices before the end of October [6] Group 4: Market Conditions Summary CEA Market - CEA24 shows weak and stable operation, while other targets show slight rebounds. The volume of listed allowances is 813,000 tons, and the volume of bulk transactions is 845,000 tons [6] - CEA19 - 20 closes at 65.00 yuan/ton with a 0.00% change; CEA21 closes at 59.00 yuan/ton with a 5.36% increase; CEA22 closes at 60.00 yuan/ton with a 3.43% increase; CEA23 closes at 57.13 yuan/ton with a 2.62% increase; CEA24 closes at 57.65 yuan/ton with a - 0.36% change [10] - The total trading volume of CEA19 - 20 is 0.00 tons; CEA21 is 0.00 tons; CEA22 is 18,500 tons; CEA23 is 646,100 tons; CEA24 is 993,100 tons [10] - The total trading amount of CEA19 - 20 is 58,991,100 yuan; CEA21 is 1,108,400 yuan; CEA22 is 41,935,500 yuan; CEA23 is 0.00 yuan; CEA24 is 60,000 yuan [11] CCER Market - The volume of listed agreement transactions of CCER is 139,800 tons, and the average transaction price is 78.30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 17.14%. The trading amount is 10,948,500 yuan, and the cumulative trading volume is 3,160,500 tons [12]

Report Information - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 147, 2025) [1] - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures [2] - Release Date: August 27, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may support a carbon price reversal, expected around October, but anticipatory trading could bring signs of reversal in Q3 [6] - Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of mandatory allowances and low trading willingness; from September, rising pressure from compliance may drive prices up [6] Summary by Directory Market Conditions - CEA: Main targets show divergent trends, with 567,000 tons listed and 1.717 million tons in bulk transactions [4] - CCER: The listed agreement volume is 2,200 tons, and the average transaction price is 80 yuan/ton, down 2.42% [4][10] Strategies - Deficit enterprises are advised to make phased low - price purchases before the end of August [4] Core Logic - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation allowances may be a real support for carbon price reversal, and anticipatory trading may bring forward the reversal time [6] - Carbon price trends are affected by the release of mandatory allowances, trading willingness, and compliance pressure at different times [6] Data Tables - CEA: Different vintages have different closing prices, price changes, and trading volumes. For example, CEA24 has a closing price of 69.78 yuan/ton, up 0.56%, and a bulk transaction average price of 62.17 yuan/ton [8] - CCER: The current average transaction price is 80 yuan/ton, with a 2.42% decline, a transaction volume of 2,200 tons, and a cumulative transaction volume of 250,160 tons [10]

Report Overview - Report Title: National Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue 136, 2025) [1] - Release Date: August 12, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - CEA shows a decline in volume and price, with CEA22 dropping significantly and the main targets remaining weak; CCER has light trading volume [2] - It is recommended that enterprises with carbon quota gaps make phased low - price purchases before the end of August [3] - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal. Expected depletion is in mid - early October, but signs of reversal may appear in Q3. Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate, and from September, prices may rise due to increasing compliance pressure [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs CEA Market - CEA22 dropped by 3.01%, with a closing price of 70.80 yuan/ton. CEA23 and CEA24 also declined slightly, by 0.23% and 0.05% respectively. CEA19 - 20 and CEA21 remained unchanged [7] - The total CEA volume includes 29.3 tons in the listing market and 19.0 tons in the bulk market [2] CCER Market - The CCER listing agreement trading volume was 0.21 tons, with an average transaction price of 82.33 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 4.26%, and a transaction amount of 17,500 yuan [2][9]

Report Summary Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - It is recommended that deficit enterprises make batch purchases at low prices before the end of August [4] - The depletion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal, with signs possibly seen in Q3. Carbon prices may fluctuate before August and start to rise in September due to increasing compliance pressure [6] Summary by Directory Market Quotes - CEA: The main target continued to be weak, with 72,000 tons listed and 746,000 tons in bulk transactions [13] - CCER: The listed agreement trading volume was 80 tons, and the average transaction price was 78.97 yuan/ton (up 1.24%) [10][13] Carbon Quota (CEA) Latest Market Information | Quota | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Change (%) | New-Old Price Difference (yuan/ton) | Bulk Transaction Average Price (yuan/ton) | Total Transaction Volume (10,000 tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CEA19 - 20 | 71.34 | 0.00% | - | N/A | 0.00 | | CEA21 | 70.00 | 0.00% | -1.34 | N/A | 0.00 | | CEA22 | 73.00 | 0.00% | 3.00 | N/A | 0.00 | | CEA23 | 72.80 | -0.18% | -0.20 | 55.25 | 76.67 | | CEA24 | 72.86 | -0.46% | 0.06 | N/A | 5.08 | [8] Voluntary Emission Reduction (CCER) Transaction Information - Average transaction price: 78.97 yuan/ton, up 1.24% - Transaction amount: 59,300 yuan - Transaction volume: 80 tons - Cumulative transaction volume: 2,477,900 tons [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The exhaustion of mandatory circulation quotas may support a carbon price reversal, with expected trading potentially causing signs of a reversal in Q3, though the actual exhaustion is expected in mid - early October [4] - Before August, carbon prices may fluctuate due to slow release of mandatory circulation quotas and low trading willingness. From September, as compliance pressure mounts, prices may rise [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Conditions - CEA (National Carbon Emission Allowance) main targets remain weak, with 11000 tons listed and 20000 tons in bulk deals [2] - CCER (China Certified Emission Reduction) has a listed volume of 5700 tons at an average price of 82.29 yuan/ton, a 0.39% increase [2][8] Price Forecast - Carbon prices may remain volatile before August and trend upward from September [4] Investment Strategy - Enterprises with a quota gap are advised to make phased purchases at low prices before August [2] Data Tables - CEA (2019 - 2024) closing prices range from 71.34 to 74.50 yuan/ton, with CEA23 and CEA24 down 0.20% and 0.01% respectively [6] - CCER has a trading volume of 5700 tons, an average price of 82.29 yuan/ton, and an accumulated volume of 2399000 tons [8]