碳纤维行业景气周期
Search documents
中复神鹰(688295):公司简评报告:Q2单季度利润扭亏为盈,行业及公司经营拐点出现
Capital Securities· 2025-10-21 11:16
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Add" [1] Core Insights - The company has turned a profit in Q2, indicating a turning point in both the industry and the company's operations [4] - The carbon fiber industry is expected to rebound, with increasing demand from sectors such as wind and solar energy [6] - The company is projected to benefit from a new cycle of growth in the carbon fiber market, with expected net profits of 1.07 billion, 1.78 billion, and 2.90 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [6] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 922 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.86%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 52.23% [6] - Q2 2025 saw a significant improvement, with revenue of 520 million yuan, up 83.15% year-on-year, and a net profit of 57 million yuan, up 439.98% year-on-year [6] - The company’s carbon fiber production capacity stands at 29,000 tons per year, with an additional 31,000 tons under construction, positioning it among the world's leaders in capacity [6] Profit Forecast - Revenue is forecasted to be 1.557 billion yuan in 2024, growing to 3.030 billion yuan by 2027, with corresponding growth rates of -31.1%, 30.4%, 24.6%, and 19.8% [5] - Net profit is expected to recover from a loss of 124 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 290 million yuan by 2027, with growth rates of -139.1%, 186.2%, 66.2%, and 62.7% [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) is projected to improve from -0.14 yuan in 2024 to 0.32 yuan in 2027 [5] Market Dynamics - The carbon fiber market has seen a decline in prices, with average prices in 2023, 2024, and H1 2025 at 118.33, 90.10, and 83.75 yuan/kg respectively, reflecting year-on-year decreases of -32.61%, -23.85%, and -11.26% [6] - The demand for carbon fiber is expected to increase, particularly in the wind energy sector, which has seen over 200% growth year-on-year [6]