Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth in China's lithium-ion battery exports, reaching a total of $34.102 billion in the first half of the year, marking a year-on-year increase of 25.14%, setting a historical record for the same period [2] - The top five export markets for Chinese lithium batteries in the first half of the year were Germany, the United States, Vietnam, the Netherlands, and South Korea, with notable shifts in rankings compared to the previous year [2] - Germany has replaced the United States as the largest export destination for Chinese lithium batteries, primarily due to increased barriers from U.S. tariffs and legislation affecting imports [3][4] Group 2 - The U.S. tariffs have significantly impacted exports, with a sharp decline in May where exports to the U.S. fell to $646 million, a year-on-year decrease of 22.7% and a month-on-month decrease of 43% [4] - Following the U.S.-China Geneva trade talks, there was a temporary recovery in June, with exports to the U.S. rising to $1.086 billion, a month-on-month increase of 68.1% [4] - However, new U.S. legislation is expected to further complicate market access for Chinese lithium battery companies, as domestic production in the U.S. is increasing, reducing reliance on imports [4] Group 3 - In contrast, Germany's demand for lithium batteries is on the rise due to local automotive production and government incentives for energy storage systems, which are driving the need for batteries [5] - Germany's strategic position in Europe, along with its developed infrastructure for electric vehicles, enhances its role as a key hub for Chinese battery exports to Europe [5] - Recent adjustments in EU regulations have provided some relief for Chinese battery companies, delaying compliance requirements that could have pressured their market entry [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply pressure of lithium carbonate is relatively strong, and it is expected to operate under pressure [1]. - The postponement of the EU's battery supply chain due - diligence investigation and the submission of carbon footprint reports is good news for Chinese lithium - battery exports to the EU [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the 2507 contract, the closing price was 60,100 yuan, down 860 yuan compared to T - 1; the trading volume was 261,982 lots, down 32,588 lots; the open interest was 326,472 lots, up 7,966 lots. For the 2509 contract, the closing price was 61,300 yuan, down 1,000 yuan; the trading volume was 47,243 lots, down 2,410 lots; the open interest was 104,452 lots, up 2,243 lots [1]. - **Spot Market**: The spot - 2507 basis was 2,400 yuan, up 310 yuan; the spot - 2509 basis was 1,200 yuan, up 450 yuan. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,500 yuan, down 550 yuan; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 60,900 yuan, down 550 yuan [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 688 dollars, down 2 dollars; the price of lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,260 yuan, down 20 yuan [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 62,888 yuan/ton, down 559 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 62,500 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 60,900 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan/ton [2]. - The EU's planned battery supply chain due - diligence investigation in August this year is postponed by two years, and the submission of carbon footprint reports originally planned for February this year is also postponed. China's lithium - battery exports to the EU get a buffer period. In the first four months of 2025, five EU countries accounted for nearly 30% of China's lithium - battery export value [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].