Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a phased improvement in fundamentals, but there is selling pressure above. The traditional peak - off - peak season transition may be delayed. Attention should be paid to industrial hedging and supply elasticity release, as well as the quarterly reports of mining companies and the fulfillment of demand expectations [1][3][15] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Fundamental Phased Repair - In the context of the peak production season for lithium - battery downstream industries, the lithium carbonate market has shifted from oversupply to phased supply - demand tightness. Since October, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate futures index has risen 9.01%, and the average premium of lithium carbonate in the trading market has increased from - 200 yuan to + 150 yuan [3] - On the demand side, energy - storage demand has grown explosively, and the pre - demand effect of new energy vehicles is significant. In Q3 2025, China's energy - storage lithium - battery shipments were about 165GWh, a year - on - year increase of 65%. The full - year shipments are expected to reach 580GWh, with an annual growth rate of over 75%. The domestic sales of new energy vehicles in the first three quarters increased by 24.6% year - on - year, and the lithium carbonate consumption per vehicle increased by about 10 - 15%. The traditional peak - off - peak season transition may be delayed [3] - On the supply side, the growth has slowed, and there is a structural contraction, accelerating inventory depletion. Domestic lithium carbonate production has hit new highs since early September, but the resumption of large lithium - mica mines has not been realized, and the pressure of overseas lithium carbonate imports has eased. The monthly output of lithium - mica - extracted lithium has dropped to 1.1 - 1.2 million tons, only 60% of the monthly peak this year. The total direct import of lithium carbonate in the first three quarters was about 173,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of only 5.2%. The domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate has continued to decline, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased by 13,000 tons (- 31.2%) in October [4] 2. There is Selling Pressure Above, and Attention Should Be Paid to the Fulfillment of Demand Expectations - Under a neutral forecast, the global lithium supply surplus in 2026 is expected to be about 11%, similar to 2024 and 2025. There is a co - existence of peak - season support and long - term supply looseness in the lithium carbonate market, and market pessimism has not been completely eliminated [15] - There is significant selling pressure on rising lithium prices. From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures positions increased by 106,000 lots, a weekly increase of 15.1%. The net short positions of the top ten seats increased from 146,000 lots to 191,000 lots. The price increase has opened up short - selling opportunities, attracting many holders to hedge, and there is significant selling pressure at the 80,000 - yuan/ton mark [15] - The release of high - cost resources may accelerate. Since July, the lithium - price center has risen, and the supply of high - cost hard - rock mines in Australia, Africa, etc., has steadily increased. In September, China imported 521,000 tons of lithium concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 38.0% and a month - on - month increase of 10.6%. The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has eased, and the concentrates previously held back by mining companies are gradually being released. Attention should be paid to the quarterly reports of overseas mining companies [16] - Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of consumption expectations. In 2026, the new energy vehicle purchase tax subsidy in China will be adjusted from full exemption to half exemption, and there are different views on the impact on the demand side. In an optimistic scenario, the high - growth trend of lithium - battery demand will continue, while in a pessimistic scenario, the industry may face destocking in the first half of 2026. Currently, the vehicle and energy - storage markets are in a year - end rush period, and subsequent attention should be paid to the capital game around the first - quarter operating expectations of the lithium - battery industry [17]