Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a phased improvement in fundamentals, but there is selling pressure above. The traditional peak - off - peak season transition may be delayed. Attention should be paid to industrial hedging and supply elasticity release, as well as the quarterly reports of mining companies and the fulfillment of demand expectations [1][3][15] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Fundamental Phased Repair - In the context of the peak production season for lithium - battery downstream industries, the lithium carbonate market has shifted from oversupply to phased supply - demand tightness. Since October, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate futures index has risen 9.01%, and the average premium of lithium carbonate in the trading market has increased from - 200 yuan to + 150 yuan [3] - On the demand side, energy - storage demand has grown explosively, and the pre - demand effect of new energy vehicles is significant. In Q3 2025, China's energy - storage lithium - battery shipments were about 165GWh, a year - on - year increase of 65%. The full - year shipments are expected to reach 580GWh, with an annual growth rate of over 75%. The domestic sales of new energy vehicles in the first three quarters increased by 24.6% year - on - year, and the lithium carbonate consumption per vehicle increased by about 10 - 15%. The traditional peak - off - peak season transition may be delayed [3] - On the supply side, the growth has slowed, and there is a structural contraction, accelerating inventory depletion. Domestic lithium carbonate production has hit new highs since early September, but the resumption of large lithium - mica mines has not been realized, and the pressure of overseas lithium carbonate imports has eased. The monthly output of lithium - mica - extracted lithium has dropped to 1.1 - 1.2 million tons, only 60% of the monthly peak this year. The total direct import of lithium carbonate in the first three quarters was about 173,000 tons, with a year - on - year increase of only 5.2%. The domestic social inventory of lithium carbonate has continued to decline, and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate warehouse receipts decreased by 13,000 tons (- 31.2%) in October [4] 2. There is Selling Pressure Above, and Attention Should Be Paid to the Fulfillment of Demand Expectations - Under a neutral forecast, the global lithium supply surplus in 2026 is expected to be about 11%, similar to 2024 and 2025. There is a co - existence of peak - season support and long - term supply looseness in the lithium carbonate market, and market pessimism has not been completely eliminated [15] - There is significant selling pressure on rising lithium prices. From October 20 to October 24, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures positions increased by 106,000 lots, a weekly increase of 15.1%. The net short positions of the top ten seats increased from 146,000 lots to 191,000 lots. The price increase has opened up short - selling opportunities, attracting many holders to hedge, and there is significant selling pressure at the 80,000 - yuan/ton mark [15] - The release of high - cost resources may accelerate. Since July, the lithium - price center has risen, and the supply of high - cost hard - rock mines in Australia, Africa, etc., has steadily increased. In September, China imported 521,000 tons of lithium concentrates, a year - on - year increase of 38.0% and a month - on - month increase of 10.6%. The supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock mines has eased, and the concentrates previously held back by mining companies are gradually being released. Attention should be paid to the quarterly reports of overseas mining companies [16] - Attention should be paid to the fulfillment of consumption expectations. In 2026, the new energy vehicle purchase tax subsidy in China will be adjusted from full exemption to half exemption, and there are different views on the impact on the demand side. In an optimistic scenario, the high - growth trend of lithium - battery demand will continue, while in a pessimistic scenario, the industry may face destocking in the first half of 2026. Currently, the vehicle and energy - storage markets are in a year - end rush period, and subsequent attention should be paid to the capital game around the first - quarter operating expectations of the lithium - battery industry [17]

Report Title - South China Futures Coking Coal and Coke Industry Weekly Report [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The overall trend of coking coal and coke is strong, but negative feedback risks need to be vigilant. The rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices ultimately depend on whether the supply - demand balance sheet of downstream steel products can achieve a "soft landing" [2]. - In the short term, the coking coal spot market has a tight resource pattern, but the downstream steel product supply - demand contradiction has deteriorated marginally, and the steel mill's profitability is under pressure, restricting the rebound space of coking coal [2]. - In the long term, in the fourth quarter, domestic mine production is restricted by policies, and the supply elasticity of coking coal is limited. The market expectation for the winter storage in 2026 is improved, which will support the prices of coking coal and coke [8]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - The coking coal spot market has a tight resource pattern. Before the festival, there was overselling at the pithead, the upstream inventory pressure was generally light, and the mine owners were strongly willing to hold prices. The supply of Mongolian coal at the port has also tightened, and the inventory in the regulatory area is low [2][4]. - The supply - demand contradiction of downstream steel products has deteriorated marginally, the steel mills' profitability is under pressure, and the black industry shows the characteristic of "not prosperous in the peak season". The rebound space of coking coal is restricted, and there is a risk of negative feedback [2]. - The rebound height and sustainability of coal and coke prices depend on whether the supply - demand balance sheet of downstream steel products can achieve a "soft landing" [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The entry interval is (-70, -60) [10]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations** - Basis strategy: The recent basis of coking coal and coke has little fluctuation, and the coke futures price is between the dry and wet coke warehouse - receipt costs, with a relatively reasonable valuation. There is no definite spot - futures positive arbitrage opportunity [11]. - Calendar spread strategy: It is recommended to pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse spread of coking coal. Reasons include industrial hedging short positions and warehouse - receipt pressure in the 01 contract, weak short - selling power in the far - month 05 contract; limited position constraints in the 01 contract and fewer restrictions in the far - month contracts; and the expansion of delivery warehouses and capacity by the DCE, which is beneficial for short - selling delivery [11]. - Hedging arbitrage strategy: Short the coking profit on the futures market at high prices, with the recommended entry interval of 01 coke/coking coal (1.5 - 1.55) [11][13]. - **Recent Strategy Review**: Some strategies such as the 9 - 1 reverse spread of coking coal, shorting the coking profit on the futures market, etc., are in different states of execution [17]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of coking coal is predicted to be 1100 - 1300, and that of coke is 1550 - 1800 [14]. - **Risk Management Strategy Recommendations** - Inventory hedging: Steel mills' profitability is shrinking marginally, and coke enterprises' price increase is difficult. Coke enterprises can short the J2601 contract to lock in the sales price, with different recommended hedging ratios and entry intervals [14]. - Procurement management: Affected by policies, the supply of coking coal is disturbed. Coking plants can go long on the JM2605 contract to lock in the procurement price, with different recommended hedging ratios and entry intervals [14]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Coking Coal Supply and Inventory**: The production of coking coal in some mines and washing plants has increased, and the total inventory has increased slightly. The inventory in some ports has decreased [15]. - **Coke Supply and Inventory**: The production of coke in independent coking plants and steel mills has decreased, and the total inventory has decreased [15]. - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of coking coal and coke in the spot and futures markets have shown different trends, and the basis, calendar spread, and coking profit have also changed [16][18]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The central safety production assessment and inspection are about to be carried out; the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut is high; mainstream coke enterprises plan to raise the price of dry - quenched coke [21]. - **Negative Information**: The supply and inventory of five major steel products have decreased, but the consumption is still lower than the same period in previous years; the average profit per ton of coke in independent coking plants is negative; the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills is flat, but the profitability is shrinking [22]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Next Monday: Release of China's one - year loan prime rate, year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail sales in September, and year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value of large - scale industries in September [23]. - October 20 - 23: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee will be held [24]. - Next Thursday: Release of the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending October 18 [24]. - Next Friday: Release of the US unadjusted CPI annual rate in September, the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in October, and the final value of the US University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in October [24]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Analysis 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - **Unilateral Trend**: The main coking coal contract JM2601 is in a wide - range shock interval of 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton, with strong support at the lower edge of the interval [25]. - **Capital Flow**: The net short positions of the main coking coal seats have decreased significantly, and the market's bullish expectation for the future has increased. The net short positions of the profitable coke seats have first increased and then decreased, and the market sentiment has improved [27]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The coking coal and coke market shows a deep C - shaped structure. The 1 - 5 calendar spread of coking coal strengthened during the week and then declined slightly [31]. - **Basis Structure**: The recent basis of coking coal and coke has little fluctuation, and the coke futures price is between the dry and wet coke warehouse - receipt costs, with a relatively reasonable valuation. There is no definite spot - futures positive arbitrage opportunity [38]. - **Spread Structure**: The coking profit on the futures market has continued to fluctuate at a low level. It is recommended to short the coking profit on the futures market at high prices [44]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Industry Chain Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - The mine profit has improved month - on - month, but the immediate coking profit has been damaged. The steel mill's profit has continued to shrink, and the iron - making output has decreased marginally [46]. 4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The import profit of Mongolian coal has recovered, and the customs clearance enthusiasm has increased. The import profit of sea - borne coal has shrunk, and the subsequent arrival pressure is expected to ease [50][54]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 Supply - Side and Deduction - The production increase space of coking coal mines in the fourth quarter is limited. It is expected that the average weekly output of coking coal from mid - to late October will be 980 - 985 tons. The net import volume of coking coal in October is expected to be 980 tons, with an average weekly net import volume of about 221 tons [72]. - The coke production enthusiasm is suppressed, and it is expected that the weekly coke production from mid - to late October will be maintained at 773 - 775 tons [75]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Deduction - The blast furnace profitability has declined marginally, and some steel mills have gradually switched to producing hot - rolled coils. As the traditional off - season approaches, the number of steel mills planning to carry out maintenance is increasing, and the iron - making output is expected to decline slowly [77]. 5.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - The supply - demand balance sheets of coking coal and coke are estimated, including production, import, total supply, theoretical iron - making output, actual iron - making output, and inventory [80].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of casting aluminum alloy futures and options in China aims to establish a transparent and efficient pricing mechanism, enhancing risk management capabilities within the aluminum industry and promoting sustainable development [2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The first day of trading for the main contract AD2511 saw an opening price of 19,400 CNY/ton and a closing price of 19,190 CNY/ton, reflecting an increase of 825 CNY/ton or 4.49% from the listing benchmark price of 18,365 CNY/ton [3]. - A total of 57,300 contracts were traded, amounting to 11.011 billion CNY, with an open interest of 11,500 contracts [3]. Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Price Expectations - Analysts noted that the initial high opening was due to the low benchmark price set by the exchange, leading to a narrow trading range and a back structure in the market, indicating a consensus among investors regarding a bearish outlook for future prices [3]. - The expected price range for the AD2511 contract is projected to be between 18,000 CNY/ton and 19,700 CNY/ton, influenced by supply pressures and cost support [4]. Group 3: Industry Outlook - The aluminum alloy production capacity is anticipated to continue increasing, with demand primarily driven by the automotive sector, likely resulting in a supply surplus [3]. - The current spot price for ADC12 is estimated to be between 19,500 CNY/ton and 20,000 CNY/ton, with production costs around 20,086 CNY/ton, suggesting potential buying opportunities at lower prices [4].