1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The imbalance between supply and demand in the lithium carbonate market is prominent, with strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11] - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to halt production and reduce output, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [9][10] - It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be reduced, and the cost of 6% concentrate CIF will decrease on a daily basis, falling below the historical average level. The supply - demand pattern will shift to demand - led, and lithium carbonate 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 71,780 - 73,980 [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 75,297 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.31%, resulting in a loss of 2,519 yuan/ton in production. The cost of purchased lepidolite is 78,729 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily decrease of 0.72%, resulting in a loss of 7,944 yuan/ton in production. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that at the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8] - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 96,217 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.81%. The inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,545 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.09% [8] - **Inventory**: The inventory of smelters is 34,456 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.85%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory is 59,495 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.09%, higher than the historical average. Other inventories are 43,580 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99%, higher than the historical average. The total inventory is 137,531 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70%, higher than the historical average [8] - **Supply Expectation**: In August 2025, the output of lithium carbonate was 85,240 physical tons, and the predicted output for next month is 86,730 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%. In August 2025, the import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,847 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.74% [8] Other Indicators - **Basis**: On September 24, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,850 yuan/ton, the basis of the 11 - contract was 970 yuan/ton, and the spot price was at a premium to the futures price, showing a positive signal [8] - **Disk**: The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, showing a negative signal [8] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the main position increased, showing a negative signal [8] 3.2 Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price and Basis**: The futures closing price showed a downward trend, and the basis increased significantly. For example, the futures closing price decreased by 0.98% - 1.06%, and the basis increased by 145.10% - 458.82% [14] - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: The number of registered warehouse receipts was 39,749, an increase of 0.76% [14] - **Upstream Prices**: The price of spodumene (6%) decreased by 0.47% to 856 US dollars/ton, and the price of lepidolite concentrate (2% - 2.5%) decreased by 1.32% to 1,875 yuan/ton. The prices of other upstream products such as anhydrous iron phosphate remained unchanged [14] - **Positive Material and Lithium Battery Prices**: The prices of some ternary precursors and ternary materials increased slightly, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate and lithium - ion batteries remained unchanged [14] 3.3 Supply - Related Data Lithium Ore - **Price and Output**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated, and the output of domestic spodumene mines and lepidolite has shown different trends over the years [23] - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has changed, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also fluctuated [23] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore has been fluctuating, with a shortfall in most months [26] Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate have changed over time, with different changes in production from different raw materials such as spodumene, lepidolite, and salt lake [29] - **Import and Export**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate has changed, and the export volume has also shown different trends [29] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has been fluctuating, with both surpluses and shortages [36] Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide have changed, and the production from different sources such as smelting and causticization has also shown different trends [39] - **Export**: The export volume of lithium hydroxide has changed over the years [39] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has been fluctuating, with surpluses in most months [41] 3.4 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of purchasing spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and recycling materials for lithium carbonate production have changed over time. For example, the production of lithium carbonate from purchased spodumene concentrate and lepidolite concentrate is currently in a loss state [44][46] - The profit of purifying industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the profit of carbonizing lithium hydroxide into lithium carbonate, and the profit of causticizing lithium carbonate into lithium hydroxide have also changed [46][49] 3.5 Inventory - The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide have changed, with different trends in inventory at the smelter end, downstream end, and other ends [51] 3.6 Demand - Related Data Lithium Battery - **Price and Output**: The price of lithium batteries has changed, and the monthly output of power batteries and energy - storage batteries has also shown different trends [55] - **Export**: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed over the years [55] Ternary Precursor - **Price and Production**: The price of ternary precursors has changed, and the monthly production and capacity utilization rate have also shown different trends [61] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2024 to 2025, the supply - demand balance of ternary precursors has been fluctuating, with both surpluses and shortages [64] Ternary Material - **Price and Production**: The price of ternary materials has changed, and the weekly production and inventory have also shown different trends [67][70] Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Production**: The price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium has changed, and the monthly production, export volume, and inventory have also shown different trends [74][77] New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Penetration Rate**: The production, sales, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles have changed over the years [82][83] - **Inventory and Zero - Batch Ratio**: The monthly inventory index and zero - batch ratio of new energy vehicle dealers have also changed [86]