1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamental aspect of lithium carbonate is neutral. The supply side shows an increasing trend, with the production in July 2025 at 81,530 physical tons and a predicted production of 84,200 physical tons in the next month, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%. The import volume in July 2025 was 18,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 18,500 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.78%. The demand side is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The cost side shows that the CIF price of 6% concentrate has a daily increase, lower than the historical average level. The supply - demand pattern is turning to demand - led, and the lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 83,220 - 86,980 [8]. - The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [12]. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply from ore/salt lake ends with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,556 tons, a week - on - week increase of 13.24%, higher than the historical average level. In July 2025, the production was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 84,200 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.27% [8]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94,598 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.99%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,559 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.36%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 79,038 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.24%, with a production profit of 825 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lepidolite is 82,676 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.28%, with a production loss of 4,848 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On August 13, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 81,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 4,100 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 50,999 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.84%, lower than the historical average level; the downstream inventory was 48,159 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.95%, higher than the historical average level; other inventories were 43,260 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.41%, higher than the historical average level; the total inventory was 142,418 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.49%, higher than the historical average level, showing a neutral signal [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish signal [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, showing a bearish signal [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other products have shown different degrees of increase or decrease. For example, the price of lithium ore (01) increased from 81,320 to 84,480, an increase of 3,160, or 3.89%. The price of lithium carbonate (04) increased from 78,880 to 82,540, an increase of 3,660, or 4.64% [14]. - **Basis Changes**: The basis of various products has also changed. For example, the basis of ternary materials (01) decreased from - 3,320 to - 3,480, a decrease of 160, or 4.82% [14]. 3.3 Supply - Related - **Lithium Ore Supply**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time. The production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lepidolite has shown different trends in different years. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has also changed, with the import volume from Australia and other regions showing different trends. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also fluctuated [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate Supply**: The weekly and monthly production, import volume, and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium辉石, lithium云母, salt lake, recycling) have changed over time. The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate has shown different trends, and the import volume from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has also changed [28]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Supply**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide have changed over time. The production from different sources (smelting, causticizing) and the total production have also shown different trends [37]. 3.4 Cost - Profit Related - The cost and profit of various lithium compounds (purchased spodumene concentrate, purchased lepidolite, recycled lithium carbonate from different sources, etc.) have changed over time. For example, the cost and profit of purchased spodumene concentrate (Li₂O:6%) have fluctuated, and the cost and profit of recycled lithium carbonate from different types of black powder have also shown different trends [43][46]. 3.5 Inventory - Related - The inventory of lithium carbonate (smelter, downstream, other, total) and lithium hydroxide (downstream, smelter, total) has changed over time. The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide has shown different trends [51]. 3.6 Demand - Related - **Lithium Battery Demand**: The price, production, loading volume, and export volume of lithium batteries have changed over time. The monthly production of battery cells, the loading volume of power batteries (lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials), and the export volume of lithium batteries have shown different trends [54]. - **Ternary Precursor Demand**: The price, cost, profit, production, and export volume of ternary precursors have changed over time. The price of different types of ternary precursors (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) has fluctuated, and the cost, profit, and production have also shown different trends [60]. - **Ternary Material Demand**: The price, cost, profit, production, and export volume of ternary materials have changed over time. The price of different types of ternary materials (5 - series, 6 - series, 8 - series) has fluctuated, and the cost, profit, and production have also shown different trends [66]. - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium Demand**: The price, production, cost, profit, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed over time. The price of different types of phosphoric acid iron lithium (power - type, low - end energy - storage type) has fluctuated, and the production, cost, profit, and inventory have also shown different trends [70]. - **New Energy Vehicle Demand**: The production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, and inventory of new energy vehicles have changed over time. The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) have shown different trends, and the sales penetration rate and inventory have also changed [78].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with supply exceeding demand. The downward trend is difficult to reverse due to capacity mismatch [9][12]. - Lithium carbonate 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 79220 - 81820 [9]. - It is predicted that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 18,630 tons, a 2.53% decrease from the previous week, but higher than the historical average. In June 2025, the production was 78,090 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 81,150 tons, a 3.92% increase. The monthly lithium carbonate import volume in June 2025 was 17,698 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,000 tons, a 24.31% increase [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94,878.0487804878 tons, a 0.17% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,552 tons, a 1.40% increase. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month [8][9]. - Cost side: The daily - CIF price of 6% concentrate increased, lower than the historical average. The cost of外购 lithium spodumene concentrate was 71,661 yuan/ton, a 4.33% daily increase, with a production profit of 183 yuan/ton. The cost of外购 lithium mica was 77,138 yuan/ton, a 4.21% daily increase, with a production loss of 7,248 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Data**: The futures closing prices of different contracts increased, with the 09 contract rising 5.01%. The basis of different contracts also changed, with the 09 contract's basis decreasing by 24.31%. The prices of upstream lithium minerals, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries showed various trends [14]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.80%. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene increased by 4.33%, and the monthly processing cost decreased by 2.89%. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 was 78,090 tons, and the import volume decreased by 16.31% [17]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly operating rate and production of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate lithium increased. The monthly operating rate and production of ternary materials showed different trends, and the monthly battery loading volume of new energy vehicles increased [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is strong while the demand is weak due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The 2509 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 59080 - 60480. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply of ore/salt lake ends with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 18,127 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.75%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of iron phosphate lithium sample enterprises was 86,102 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.99%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 14,857 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.28%. The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 60,536 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.51%, with a production loss of 879 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 65,237 yuan/ton, unchanged daily, with a production loss of 7,076 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end was generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,868 yuan/ton, with a higher profit margin and sufficient production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On June 16, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 60,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 720 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of smelters was 57,653 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.94%, higher than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 40,686 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.94%, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 35,210 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.83%, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 133,549 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.84%, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 on the disk was downward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, changing from long to short [8]. - **Expectation**: In May 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 72,080 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 78,875 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9.43%. The import volume in May was 23,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 24,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.35%. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may decrease. The price of 6% concentrate CIF has decreased on a daily basis, lower than the historical average. The supply - demand pattern has shifted to supply - dominated [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, lithium carbonate, and cathode materials have shown different degrees of change. For example, the price of 6% spodumene decreased by 0.79% day - on - day, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 0.25% day - on - day [14]. - **Supply - Demand Data**: In terms of supply, the weekly operating rate was 62.7%, and the daily production cost of spodumene was 60,536 yuan/ton. In terms of demand, the monthly operating rate of iron phosphate was 54%, and the monthly production was 225,200 tons [16]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated, and the production of domestic spodumene and lithium mica has also changed over time. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has shown different trends for different types of lithium ore [20][21]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance of lithium ore shows that there are differences in production, import, export, and demand in different months, resulting in different balance situations [24]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The production and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) have changed over time. The import volume of lithium carbonate also shows different trends [26][27]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate shows that there are differences in production, import, export, and demand in different months, resulting in different balance situations [32]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The production and capacity utilization of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) have changed over time. The export volume of lithium hydroxide also shows different trends [34][35]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows that there are differences in production, import, export, and demand in different months, resulting in different balance situations [38]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The cost and profit of producing lithium compounds from different raw materials such as spodumene, lithium mica, and recycled materials have changed over time. There are also differences in the cost and profit of different production processes and product types [41][42][43]. 3.7 Inventory - **Inventory of Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide shows different trends in different periods, including the inventory of smelters, downstream, and other aspects [49]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price, Production, and Sales**: The price, production, and sales volume of lithium batteries have changed over time. The cost of battery cells also shows different trends [52][53]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, and production of ternary precursors have changed over time. The capacity utilization rate also shows different trends [57][58]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors shows that there are differences in production, import, export, and demand in different months, resulting in different balance situations [61]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, and production of ternary materials have changed over time. The operating rate and inventory also show different trends [65][66]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The price, cost, and production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium have changed over time. The operating rate, export volume, and inventory also show different trends [70][72]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Penetration Rate**: The production, sales, and penetration rate of new energy vehicles have changed over time. The retail - wholesale ratio and dealer inventory index also show different trends [77][78][81][82].