1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is shifting towards demand - led. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 75,160 - 78,760. The main logic is that capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals** - **Cost side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 69,521 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 1.92%, and the production profit is 1,349 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lepidolite is 77,368 yuan/ton, with a daily - on - daily increase of 1.51%, and the production results in a loss of 8,388 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Demand side**: The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate last week was 94,598 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.99%. The inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 16,559 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [8]. - **Basis**: On August 8th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,900 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 5,060 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures, which is a bearish signal [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 50,999 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.84%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 48,159 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.95%, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 43,260 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.41%, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 142,418 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.49%, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20, which is a bullish signal [8]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main players is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is a bearish signal [8]. - **Expectation**: In July 2025, the production volume of lithium carbonate was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production volume for next month is 84,200 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%. The import volume in July was 18,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 18,500 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.78%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, inventory may decrease, and the CIF price of 6% concentrate has a daily - on - daily increase but is lower than the historical average [8]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price changes**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as spodumene, lithium mica concentrate, battery - grade lithium carbonate, and industrial - grade lithium carbonate have shown different degrees of increase or remained stable compared with the previous values [14]. - **Supply - side data**: The weekly operating rate was 63.92%, unchanged from the previous value. The monthly operating rate increased by 5.36%. The monthly production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased by 16.31% [17]. - **Demand - side data**: There are data on the monthly production, export, and inventory of lithium - related products such as lithium iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate lithium, and ternary materials, as well as data on the monthly power battery loading volume, new energy vehicle production, sales, and export volume [17]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and production trends**: There are historical data on the price of lithium ore, the production volume of spodumene mines in China, the total production volume of domestic lepidolite, the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore [23]. - **Supply - demand balance table**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore from July 2024 to July 2025 is presented, including demand, production, import, export, and balance data [25]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and operating rate trends**: There are data on the weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate production from different sources (spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, and recycling materials), as well as the weekly and monthly production volume trends [28]. - **Supply - demand balance table**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate from July 2024 to July 2025 is shown, including demand, export, import, production, and balance data [33]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity utilization and production trends**: Data on the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide, the monthly operating rate by source (causticization and smelting), the smelting capacity, production volume, and export volume are provided [36]. - **Supply - demand balance table**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide from July 2024 to July 2025 is presented, including demand, export, import, production, and balance data [39]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - The cost - profit data of various lithium compounds are provided, including the cost - profit of purchased spodumene concentrate, purchased lepidolite concentrate, and the cost - profit of recycling different types of lithium - containing black powder to produce lithium carbonate, as well as the profit of purifying industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the profit of carbonizing lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate, etc. [42][45][48] 3.7 Inventories - There are data on the inventory of lithium carbonate (including warehouse receipts, weekly and monthly inventory by source) and the inventory of lithium hydroxide (monthly inventory by source) [50]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Batteries - **Price and production trends**: Data on the price trend of batteries, monthly cell production volume, monthly power battery loading volume, power cell monthly shipment volume, and lithium battery export volume are provided [53]. - **Inventory data**: There are data on the inventory of lithium battery cells (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, and energy - storage batteries) and the energy - storage bid - winning volume [56]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursors - **Price, cost, and production trends**: Data on the price of ternary precursors, cost - profit, processing fees, capacity utilization rate, capacity, and monthly production volume are provided [59]. - **Supply - demand balance table**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors from July 2024 to July 2025 is presented, including export, demand, import, production, and balance data [62]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Materials - **Price, cost - profit, and production trends**: Data on the price of ternary materials, cost - profit trends, weekly operating rate, capacity, and production volume are provided, as well as data on processing fees, export volume, import volume, and weekly inventory [65][67]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price, cost - profit, and production trends**: Data on the price of iron phosphate/iron phosphate lithium, production cost of iron phosphate, cost - profit of iron phosphate lithium, capacity, monthly operating rate, monthly production volume, monthly export volume, and weekly inventory are provided [69][72]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - **Production, sales, and export trends**: Data on the production volume (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric, and total new energy vehicles), export volume, sales volume (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric, and total sales), sales penetration rate, retail - to - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles, dealer inventory warning index, and dealer inventory index of new energy vehicles are provided [77][81].

期货价格区间预测 | 品种 | 价格区间预测 | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂主力合约 | 短期强支撑位：65000 | 42.2% | 73.5% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 碳酸锂企业风险管理策略建议 南华期货碳酸锂企业风险管理日报 2025年08月06日 夏莹莹 投资咨询证书：Z0016569 余维函 期货从业证号：F03144703 联系邮箱：yuwh@nawaa.com 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 | 行为 导向 | 情景分析 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 推荐比例 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 为防止库存减值，可以根据库存情况，做空碳酸锂 期货来锁定成品利润 | LC2511 | 卖出 | 20% | | 库存 | 产品库存偏高，担心库存 | | | | | | 管理 | 有减值风险 | 卖出看涨期权 | 场外/场内期权 | 卖出 | 20% | | | | 买入虚值看跌期权 | 场内/场外期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market: a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price drop - ore price decline - lithium salt price drop again" and a step - by - step upward chain of "futures price increase - production capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase" [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two phases: the futures price will fluctuate upward in early Q3 due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the "off - season not so off" phenomenon; in Q4, the futures price is expected to decline as technological upgrades are completed and production volume is concentratedly released [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors affecting the market. Positive factors include improved macro - sentiment, supply - side disruptions, and the market trading of the contradiction between high open interest and low warrant numbers. Negative factors include high future lithium ore production expectations, continuous inventory accumulation, and industrial technology upgrades [3][5]. Summary by Directory Futures Data - **Futures Price and Volume**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract was 71,280 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,320 yuan (1.89%) and a weekly increase of 4,800 yuan (7.22%). The trading volume was 848,150 lots, a daily decrease of 358,173 lots (- 29.69%) and a weekly decrease of 166,408 lots (- 16.40%). The open interest was 381,185 lots, a daily increase of 3,880 lots (1.03%) and a weekly increase of 25,024 lots (7.03%) [8]. - **Futures Spread**: The LC08 - 11 spread was 1,060 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 200 yuan (- 15.87%) and a weekly increase of 340 yuan (47.22%); the LC09 - 11 spread was 1,080 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 260 yuan (- 19%) and a weekly increase of 600 yuan (125%); the LC11 - 12 spread was 60 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 60 yuan (- 50%) and a weekly decrease of 460 yuan (- 115%) [10]. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Price**: The average price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2 - 2.5%) was 1,545 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 40 yuan (2.66%) and a weekly increase of 95 yuan (6.55%); the average price of lithium spodumene (Li2O: 6%, Brazilian CIF) was 755 US dollars/ton, with a daily increase of 25 US dollars (3.42%) and a weekly increase of 65 US dollars (9.42%) [15]. - **Lithium Salt Price**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 66,350 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,300 yuan (2.00%) and a weekly increase of 3,300 yuan (5.23%); the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 68,000 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,350 yuan (2.03%) and a weekly increase of 3,350 yuan (5.18%) [18]. - **Downstream Product Price**: The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) was 32,075 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 320 yuan (1.01%) [22]. Basis and Warrant Data - **Basis**: The basis of the main continuous contract of lithium carbonate and brand - based basis quotes of different companies are provided, with most showing no daily change [26]. - **Warrant Quantity**: The total warrant quantity decreased from 10,239 to 9,969, a decrease of 270. Some warehouses had a reduction in warrant quantity, such as Wugang Wuxi and Jiangsu Benniu Port [31]. Cost and Profit - **Production and Import Profit**: The production profit of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%) and lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%), as well as theoretical delivery profit and import profit trends are presented, but specific profit values are not summarized here [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. The medium - and long - term supply - demand imbalance has not been substantially alleviated [3]. - There are two short - term logics in the market. In the price - decline cycle, a negative feedback loop of "lithium salt price drop - ore price loosening - lithium salt price drop again" may occur. When the futures price rebounds, a step - by - step upward chain of "futures price rise - production capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase" may form, but it will eventually return to the oversupply fundamentals [3]. - The futures market in the second half of the year is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will fluctuate upward at the beginning of the third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disruptions, and the "not - so - off - season" phenomenon; in the fourth quarter, the futures price will fluctuate downward as technological upgrades end and production output is released [3]. - Strategy suggestions: conduct a long - LC2509 and short - LC2511 calendar spread; short LC2511 at high prices [3] Summary by Directory 1. Futures Data - **Price and Volatility**: The predicted price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 60,000 - 70,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.2% and a historical percentile of 17.6% over three years [2]. - **Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 64,180 yuan/ton, down 220 yuan (- 0.34%) from the previous day; the trading volume is 398,022 lots, up 47,897 lots (13.68%); the open interest is 323,683 lots, down 3,212 lots (- 0.98%). For the LC2511 contract, the closing price is 63,920 yuan/ton, down 160 yuan (- 0.25%); the trading volume is 38,236 lots, up 7,655 lots (25.03%); the open interest is 99,240 lots, up 4,881 lots (5.17%) [9]. - **Month - spread Data**: The LC08 - 11 month - spread is 600 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the LC09 - 11 month - spread is 260 yuan, down 60 yuan (- 19%); the LC11 - 12 month - spread is - 320 yuan, down 220 yuan (220%) [12]. 2. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore**: The latest average prices of lithium mica with different Li₂O contents (2 - 2.5%, 3 - 4%, 5 - 5.5%) are 1,405 yuan/ton, 2,540 yuan/ton, and 4,995 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 20 yuan (1.44%), 25 yuan (0.99%), and 45 yuan (0.91%). For lithium辉石 with Li₂O:6% (Brazil CIF, Australian CIF, fastmarkets), the prices are 670 US dollars/ton, 675 US dollars/ton, and 675 US dollars/ton, with daily increases of 0 US dollars (0%), 5 US dollars (0.75%), and 5 US dollars (0.74%). The price of phospho - lithium - aluminum stone (Li₂O:6 - 7%) is 4,565 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan (1.44%). The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 7.1771, down 0.0031 (- 0.04%) [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The latest average prices of industrial - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium carbonate are 62,050 yuan/ton and 63,650 yuan/ton respectively, both up 350 yuan (0.57% and 0.55%). The prices of industrial - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) are 51,970 yuan/ton and 62,570 yuan/ton respectively, unchanged. The price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) is 8 US dollars/kg, down 0.05 US dollars (- 0.62%); the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF China, Japan, and South Korea (fastmarkets) is 8.00 US dollars/kg, unchanged [19]. - **Lithium Industry Chain Spreads**: The battery - grade lithium carbonate - industrial - grade lithium carbonate spread is 1,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; the battery - grade lithium hydroxide - battery - grade lithium carbonate spread is - 1,080 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan (47.95%); the battery - grade lithium hydroxide CIF Japan and South Korea - domestic spread is - 212 yuan/ton, down 382.51 yuan (- 224.33%) [21]. - **Downstream Products**: The latest average prices of power - type, low - end energy - storage type, and mid - to - high - end energy - storage type lithium iron phosphate are 31,030 yuan/ton, 27,360 yuan/ton, and 29,605 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 80 yuan (0.26%), 80 yuan (0.29%), and 85 yuan (0.29%). The price of lithium manganese iron phosphate is 43,150 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan (0.12%). For ternary materials (523 - type for consumption, 622 - type for consumption, 811 - type for power), the prices are 106,100 yuan/ton, 111,050 yuan/ton, and 142,850 yuan/ton, with daily increases of 140 yuan (0%), 30 yuan (0.03%), and 70 yuan (0.05%). The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 51,050 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan (- 0.97%). The prices of electrolytes for lithium iron phosphate, lithium - iron energy - storage, lithium - iron power, and ternary power are 17,800 yuan/ton, 16,900 yuan/ton, 19,300 yuan/ton, and 21,750 yuan/ton respectively, all down 150 yuan (- 1%) [23][24]. 3. Basis and Warehouse - receipt Data - **Basis**: The basis quotes of lithium carbonate brands such as Shengxin Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, etc., for the LC2507 contract range from - 400 yuan to 500 yuan, with no daily changes. The four - material comprehensive basis quote for the LC2507 contract is 162.5 yuan, unchanged [27]. - **Warehouse - receipt Quantity**: The total number of warehouse receipts is 13,281, down 90 from the previous day. The warehouse - receipt quantities of some warehouses have changed, such as a decrease of 60 in Suining Tiancheng and an increase of 30 in Cosco Shipping Nanchang [32]. 4. Cost and Profit - Not elaborated in detail in the content, only provides some profit trend charts including production profit from外购锂辉石精矿 (Li₂O:6%), production profit from外购锂云母精矿 (Li₂O:2.5%), theoretical delivery profit, and import profit [30]