长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 需求端：8月整体排产环比增加，大型电芯厂排产环比增加7%。7月，我国动力和其他电池合计产量为133.8GWh，环比增长3.6%， 同比增长44.3%。动力和其他电池合计出口23.2GWh，环比下降4.7%，同比增长35.4%。动力和其他电池销量为127.2GWh，环比下 降3.2%，同比增长47.8%。以旧换新政策和政策端新能源车购置税的延期也有望持续支撑中国新能源车市场销量的较快增长。 库存：本周碳酸锂库存呈现去库状态，碳酸锂工厂库存减少1590吨，市场库存减少591吨，期货库存增加1505吨。 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 碳酸锂周报 2025/8/25 l 策略建议： 01 周度观点 l 供需状况： 供应端：据百川盈孚统计，上周碳酸锂产量环比增加345吨至20438吨，7月产量环比增加5.8%至85690吨。宁德枧下窝矿山确认停 产3个月，宜春和青海地区生产企业均收到矿权转让重审的通知，供应受到影响。一季度澳矿实现对成本的管控， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The current lithium carbonate market shows a situation of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [8][9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate was 19,138 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.21%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 93,640 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.51%, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,296 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.45%. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 80,393 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.34%, with a production profit of 3,613 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica was 84,868 yuan/ton, unchanged daily, with a production loss of 2,995 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, with average production scheduling enthusiasm, while the salt lake end has strong motivation [8] - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 141,543 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.50%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of smelters was 46,846 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.73%; the downstream inventory was 51,507 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.68%; other inventory was 43,190 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.46% [8] - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20, showing a bullish trend. It is predicted that the production of lithium carbonate in August 2025 will be 84,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%, and the import volume will be 18,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.62%. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The price of 6% concentrate CIF decreased daily, lower than the historical average, and the demand - dominated situation has weakened. The lithium carbonate 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 80,940 - 84,580 yuan/ton [8] - **Basis**: On August 21, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 2,440 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium, showing a bullish trend [8] - **Main Force Position**: The net short position of the main force decreased, showing a bearish trend [8] 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Lithium Carbonate Market**: The daily opening rate was 63.92%, unchanged from the previous value. The monthly production was 81,530 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The monthly import volume was 13,845.31 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 21.77%. The monthly net import volume was 17,267.97 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.22%. The supply - demand balance was - 1090 tons, a significant change from the previous month [17] - **Lithium Hydroxide Market**: The monthly production was 25,170 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.94%. The monthly net export volume was 4,777.73 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.73%. The supply - demand balance was - 3149 tons, a change from the previous month [17] - **Downstream Market**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 72,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.71%. The monthly production of ternary materials was 25,130 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.09%. The monthly power battery loading volume was 55,900 GWh, a month - on - month decrease of 3.95% [17] 3.3 Lithium Ore Supply - **Price and Production**: The price of spodumene and lithium mica has shown certain fluctuations. The production of domestic lithium mines has also changed over time. For example, the production of Chinese sample spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has different trends in different years [23] - **Import and Self - Sufficiency Rate**: The import volume of lithium concentrate has decreased, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has also changed. The inventory of port traders and unsold lithium ore has shown different trends in different years [23] 3.4 Lithium Carbonate Supply - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly opening rate and monthly production of lithium carbonate from different sources (spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) have different trends. The monthly capacity of lithium carbonate has also changed over time [28] - **Import and Supply - Demand Balance**: The import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has changed. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has shown different situations in different months [33] 3.5 Lithium Hydroxide Supply - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting and causticizing) have different trends. The monthly capacity of lithium hydroxide has also changed over time [36] - **Export and Supply - Demand Balance**: The export volume of lithium hydroxide has changed. The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has shown different situations in different months [39] 3.6 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventories of lithium carbonate in different links (smelters, downstream, and others) have different trends [49] - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in different links (smelters and downstream) has changed [49] 3.7 Demand - **Lithium Battery Demand**: The price, production, loading volume, and export volume of lithium batteries have different trends. The inventory of lithium battery cells and the winning bid of energy storage projects have also changed [53][55] - **Ternary Precursor Demand**: The price, cost, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors have different trends [58][61] - **Ternary Material Demand**: The price, cost, profit, opening rate, production, import and export volume, and inventory of ternary materials have different trends [64][66] - **Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Lithium Iron Demand**: The price, cost, profit, capacity, opening rate, production, export volume, and inventory of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid lithium iron have different trends [68][71] - **New Energy Vehicle Demand**: The production, export volume, sales volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and dealer inventory of new energy vehicles have different trends [76][80]

Report Overview - Report Title: Supply and Demand Improve, but the Actual Magnitude is Limited. Lithium Carbonate is Difficult to Maintain Long - Term and Significant Increases - Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain Weekly Data Report [1] - Report Date: August 20, 2025 [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shutdown of the Jianxiawo Mine has brought lithium carbonate prices to a new level, and the marginal change from passive inventory accumulation to passive inventory depletion in lithium carbonate supply and demand has significantly improved the market expectations in the first half of the year, with the price center expected to rise. However, the expected annual inventory depletion of 1 - 2 million tons after the shutdown is limited compared to the current market inventory of 14 million tons. If the market continues to rise significantly, it may open the profit window for imported lithium mines such as those from Australia and Africa, quickly making up for the supply reduction caused by the shutdown of the Jianxiawo Mine and attracting hedging funds, so it may experience short - term significant increases but is difficult to maintain in the long term [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Report Summary 3.1.1 Fundamental Overview - Lithium Ore: The price of spodumene has risen rapidly, leading the increase in ore prices. Affected by administrative orders in Jiangxi and Qinghai, the operating rates of lithium mica and salt lake sectors have significantly declined in July. After the confirmation of the shutdown of Jianxiawo, the market demand for lithium mica has significantly decreased, and the price of spodumene, as an alternative, has led the increase in the lithium ore market. Attention should be paid to the quantity of imported spodumene supplemented due to high prices [3]. - Lithium Salt: It has continued to take advantage of the situation, and the upper integer price levels may be the targets of long - positions. The news of the shutdown of Jianxiawo last week pushed the lithium carbonate LC futures contract to the price range of 80,000 yuan. The marginal reduction may change the domestic lithium carbonate supply - demand from passive inventory accumulation to passive inventory depletion. The market long - positions continue to take advantage of the market rumors of the shutdown of the salt lake sector to drive up prices, with the upper levels of 90,000 and 100,000 yuan being the next targets of long - positions. However, with a high inventory of 14 million tons, it is difficult for lithium carbonate to maintain high prices in the long term [3]. - Cathode Materials and Lithium Batteries: The impact of anti - involution is gradually fading. The impact of anti - involution focused on the new energy vehicle market is gradually fading. Recently, lithium carbonate has been indirectly affected by the sentiment of industries such as photovoltaics, with limited substantial impact [3]. 3.1.2 Market Summary - The shutdown of the Jianxiawo Mine has brought lithium carbonate prices to a new level. The marginal change in supply and demand has improved market expectations, but the expected inventory depletion is limited compared to the current inventory. If the market rises significantly, it may attract imported lithium mines and hedging funds, making it difficult to maintain long - term high prices [4]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet 3.2.1 Lithium Carbonate Balance Sheet - Slowing Inventory Accumulation - From July 2024 to July 2025, the supply, demand, import, export, inventory change, and cumulative balance of lithium carbonate showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the supply was 81,530 tons, demand was 96,275 tons, import was 18,000 tons, export was 573 tons, inventory change was 2,682 tons, and the cumulative balance was 164,565 tons [8]. 3.2.2 Lithium Hydroxide Balance Sheet - From August 2024 to July 2025, the supply, demand, import, export, inventory change, and cumulative balance of lithium hydroxide also showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the supply was 25,170 tons, demand was 22,969 tons, import was 750 tons, export was 6,100 tons, inventory change was - 3,149 tons, and the cumulative balance was 25,163 tons [12]. 3.3 Upstream Ore Supply, Demand, and Price 3.3.1 Spodumene Import - From December 2023 to June 2025, the import volume and average import price of lithium concentrate from different countries (Australia, Brazil, etc.) showed different trends. For example, in June 2025, the total import volume was 427,626 tons, with 255,506 tons from Australia and 39,811 tons from Brazil, and the average import price was 639 US dollars per ton [19]. 3.3.2 Chinese Lithium Ore - Spodumene Quotation Leading the Increase - From December 2023 to July 2025, the production of sample lithium mica mines and spodumene mines showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production of lithium mica was 16,100 tons with a month - on - month decrease of 4.17%, and the production of spodumene was 6,500 tons with a month - on - month increase of 0.78% [24]. 3.4 Lithium Salt Supply, Demand, and Price 3.4.1 Lithium Salt Spot and Futures Prices - Obvious Impact of Lithium Ore Shutdown - From July 1, 2025, to August 15, 2025, the prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and the price differences between them showed different trends. For example, on August 15, 2025, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 84,000 yuan, industrial - grade was 83,000 yuan, battery - grade lithium hydroxide was 77,875 yuan, the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 1,000 yuan, and the difference between lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide was 6,125 yuan [27]. 3.4.2 Production Cost and Profit - Spodumene Expected to Supplement Market Gap - From July 9, 2025, to August 15, 2025, the production costs and profits of lithium carbonate produced from spodumene, low - grade mica, and high - grade mica showed different trends. For example, on August 15, 2025, the production cost of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 73,053 yuan per ton, with a profit of 10,947 yuan; the production cost from low - grade mica was 91,674 yuan per ton, with a loss of 7,674 yuan; and the production cost from high - grade mica was 53,983 yuan per ton, with a profit of 30,017 yuan [41]. 3.4.3 Lithium Carbonate Production - From July 2023 to July 2025, the weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the total monthly production was 81,530 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26% and a month - on - month increase of 4% [50]. 3.4.4 Operating Rate - Obvious Decline in Operating Rates of Mica and Salt Lake Sectors in July - From July 2022 to July 2025, the operating rates of lithium salt, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide showed different trends. The operating rates of lithium carbonate production from different raw materials (spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake) also showed different trends [52][55]. 3.4.5 Lithium Carbonate Monthly Import Volume - From December 2021 to June 2025, the total import volume of lithium carbonate and the import volumes from Argentina and Chile showed different trends. For example, in June 2025, the total import volume was 17,698 tons, with 5,094 tons from Argentina and 11,853 tons from Chile [60]. 3.4.6 Lithium Carbonate Inventory - Attention Needed on the Sustainability of Inventory Depletion - From December 2022 to July 2025, the inventory of lithium carbonate in downstream and smelting plants, weekly inventory, and the number of registered futures warehouse receipts showed different trends [62][63][65]. 3.5 Lithium Salt Downstream Production and Demand 3.5.1 Lithium Iron Phosphate - Slowing Production Growth - From November 2019 to July 2025, the production and operating rate of lithium iron phosphate showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production was 290,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.00% and a month - on - month increase of 1.86%, and the operating rate was 57.00% [70]. 3.5.2 Ternary Materials Production and Operating Rate - From December 2023 to July 2025, the production and operating rate of ternary materials showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production was 68,640 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.70% and a month - on - month increase of 5.80% [75]. 3.5.3 Ternary Materials Import and Export Volume - From December 2021 to June 2025, the import, export, and net import volumes of ternary materials showed different trends. For example, in June 2025, the import volume was 5,349 tons, the export volume was 10,636 tons, and the net import volume was - 5,287 tons [80]. 3.5.4 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - From November 2021 to July 2025, the production of pure - electric vehicles, plug - in hybrid vehicles, and the inventory warning index of automobile dealers showed different trends. For example, in July 2025, the production of pure - electric vehicles was 807,000, the production of plug - in hybrid vehicles was 436,000, and the inventory warning index was 57.2 [81].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a state where supply exceeds demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [11]. - The supply - demand pattern is shifting towards demand - led. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be depleted, and the price of lithium carbonate 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 87,340 - 91,140 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,980 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.16%. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,081 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.51%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,296 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.45%. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 82,343 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.99%, with a profit of 1,069 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lepidolite was 86,253 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.33%, with a loss of 4,968 yuan/ton. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end [8]. - **Basis**: On August 18, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 84,600 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 4,640 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 142,256 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.11%. The smelter inventory was 49,693 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.56%, and the downstream inventory was 48,283 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.26% [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 of the market was upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: In July 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 physical tons, and it is predicted that the production next month will be 84,200 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%. The import volume in July was 18,000 physical tons, and it is predicted that the import volume next month will be 18,500 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.78%. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted. The price of 6% concentrate CIF increased daily, lower than the historical average. The lithium carbonate 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 87,340 - 91,140 yuan/ton [8]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene [9]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: High - level supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Price and Basis**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and other products showed varying degrees of increase, while the basis of most products showed a negative value and a certain degree of decline [13]. - **Upstream Prices**: The prices of spodumene, lepidolite concentrate, and battery - grade lithium carbonate increased, while the price of anhydrous iron phosphate decreased slightly [13]. - **Positive Electrode Materials and Lithium Battery Prices**: The prices of most positive electrode materials and lithium batteries increased to varying degrees [13]. 3.3 Supply - Related - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium ore increased, and the production and import volume of lithium ore showed different trends. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore and the inventory of lithium ore in ports also changed [21]. - **Lithium Ore Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The demand, production, import, and export of lithium ore in different months from 2024 to 2025 are shown, and the supply - demand balance is calculated [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly and monthly production, import volume, and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (spodumene, lepidolite, salt lake, and recycling) are presented, and the supply - demand balance is calculated [26][31]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, export volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide are shown [34][37]. 3.4 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - Out - sourced spodumene concentrate, lepidolite concentrate, and various recycled materials for lithium carbonate production have different cost - profit situations. The processing cost components of lepidolite and spodumene, as well as the import profit of lithium carbonate, are also presented [40][43][46]. - The cost - profit situations of industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification, lithium hydroxide carbonation to lithium carbonate, and different production methods of lithium hydroxide are shown [43][46]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in different periods and from different sources (smelter, downstream, etc.) is presented [48]. 3.6 Demand - Related - **Lithium Battery**: The price, production, loading volume, export volume, and inventory of lithium batteries are shown [52][54]. - **Ternary Precursor**: The price, cost, profit, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors are presented [57][60]. - **Ternary Material**: The price, cost, profit, production, export volume, import volume, and inventory of ternary materials are shown [63][65]. - **Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium**: The price, cost, profit, capacity, production, export volume, and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium are presented [67][70]. - **New Energy Vehicle**: The production, sales, export volume, sales penetration rate, retail - wholesale ratio, and inventory warning index of new energy vehicles are shown [75][79].

一则停产消息彻底引爆。 A股开盘后，锂矿股集体大涨，截至午间收盘，天齐锂业、江特电机、盛新锂能涨停，中矿资源、赣锋锂业、永杉锂业大涨超9%，融捷股份、盐湖股 份、雅化集团、西藏矿业、天华新能等个股跟涨。港股锂业股亦全线大涨，赣锋锂业一度暴涨超20%，天齐锂业一度大涨超18%。 另外，周一早盘澳洲锂矿股也大幅走强，其中Liontown资源有限公司股价一度暴涨超22%，Pilbara矿业有限公司大涨超17%，Mineral资源有限公司涨近 12%。 消息面上，宁德时代8月11日在互动平台表示，公司在宜春项目采矿许可证8月9日到期后已暂停了开采作业，正按相关规定尽快办理采矿证延续申请，待 获得批复后将尽早恢复生产，该事项对公司整体经营影响不大。 市场表现方面，今日早盘，宁德时代股价一度小幅冲高，随后有所回落，截至午间收盘，小幅上涨0.16%。 在此之前，有消息称，宁德时代枧下窝矿区采矿端于8月10日起停产，且短期内没有复产计划。 8月11日，期货市场开盘，碳酸锂期货所有合约全线涨停。A股、港股锂矿股集体爆发，天齐锂业、江特电机、盛新锂能等多股涨停，赣锋锂业H股一度暴 涨超20%。消息面上，宁德时代8月11日在互动平 ...

周度报告—碳酸锂 供应端扰动落地，盘面再度冲高 | 走势评级: | | --- | [Table_Summary] ★供应端扰动落地，盘面再度冲高 上周锂盐价格再度冲高。LC2508 收盘价环比+9.9%至 7.53 万元/ 吨，LC2509 收盘价环比+11.2%至 7.66 万元/吨；SMM 电池级及 工业级碳酸锂现货均价环比+0.8%至 7.19、6.98 万元/吨。周内氢 氧化锂价格延续上行，SMM 粗颗粒及微粉型电池级氢氧化锂均 价环比+0.5%、+0.4%至 6.59、7.11 万元/吨。电工价差环比持平、 为 0.21 万元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂价格贴水环比 略走阔至 0.59 万元/吨。 有 色 金 属 据智利海关，7 月智利共出口碳酸锂及氢氧化锂 2.38 万吨，环比 +40%，同比+9%；其中对中国出口 1.36 万吨，环比+33%，同比 -13%，考虑船期后约兑现至 8-9 月到港量边际回升。1-7 月智利 共计出口碳酸锂及氢氧化锂 14.9 万吨，同比-6%；其中对中国出 口 9.68 万吨，同比-17%。硫酸锂方面，7 月智利对中国发运硫酸 锂 1.04 万吨（0.52 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in lithium carbonate prices is primarily driven by expectations of production cuts at a major mine in Jiangxi, which has led to market speculation about supply stability [1][2][3]. Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply-demand balance for lithium carbonate is currently relatively stable, but concerns about supply disruptions from the Jiangxi mine are pushing prices higher [2][3]. - As of August 7, weekly lithium carbonate production increased by over 13% to 19,600 tons, while weekly inventory only rose by 692 tons, indicating a slight improvement in downstream demand [2]. - Despite the price increase, some downstream companies are adopting a cautious approach to inventory replenishment due to the rising costs [2][4]. Price Trends and Market Sentiment - Historical data suggests that even if the Jiangxi mine were to stop production, prices might stabilize in the range of 75,000 to 80,000 yuan per ton, supported by strong demand expectations [3]. - The market is currently experiencing upward price pressure due to fears of prolonged production halts and potential regulatory issues at the Jiangxi mine [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the market's reaction to supply fluctuations may be overblown, and the potential for further price increases could be limited [4]. Future Outlook - The focus will be on the production changes from mica-derived lithium, with concerns about supply shortages potentially leading to increased raw material replenishment by downstream companies [4]. - If lithium carbonate prices remain high, there may be a resurgence in non-mainstream production capabilities, particularly from overseas sources [4]. - Investors are advised to approach market news with caution, as the potential for price increases may be constrained, and excessive speculation could pose risks [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is shifting towards demand - led. The current situation is characterized by over - supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decrease in lithium spodumene imports. Negative factors are the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline and insufficient willingness to receive goods at the power battery end [8][9][10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 17,268 tons, a 7.31% week - on - week decrease but higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased week - on - week. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 0.37% day - on - week, with a profit of 1,884 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica remained unchanged, with a loss of 6,850 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, and the production enthusiasm is average. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On August 4th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 2,310 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory decreased by 6.18% week - on - week, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory increased by 7.18% week - on - week, higher than the historical average; other inventories decreased by 2.42% week - on - week, higher than the historical average. The total inventory decreased by 1.00% week - on - week, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 of the market is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [8]. - **Expectation**: In July 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 physical tons, a 3.27% month - on - month increase. The import volume in July was 18,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 18,500 physical tons, a 2.78% month - on - month increase. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The CIF price of 6% concentrate has increased day - on - day and is lower than the historical average. The 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 67,340 - 70,500 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Yesterday's Market Overview**: The prices of various lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide showed different degrees of changes. For example, the price of lithium ore decreased by 0.32% - 0.35%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged [14]. - **Lithium Carbonate Market Overview**: Supply - side data shows changes in indicators such as weekly and monthly operating rates, processing costs, and production of lithium carbonate. Demand - side data includes changes in production, inventory, and consumption of lithium - related products such as lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials [18]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over the years. The production of Chinese sample lithium spodumene mines and domestic lithium mica has also changed. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate has decreased year - on - year, and the self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore has shown different trends [24]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance of lithium ore shows differences in demand, production, import, and export from July 2024 to July 2025 [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Import**: The weekly and monthly production, operating rates, and import volumes of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling materials) have changed over time. The production capacity of lithium carbonate has also shown an upward trend [29]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate shows differences in demand, export, import, production, and balance from July 2024 to July 2025 [33]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Export**: The production, operating rates, and export volumes of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) have changed over time. The production capacity of lithium hydroxide has also shown an upward trend [36]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows differences in demand, export, import, production, and balance from July 2024 to July 2025 [38]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Materials**: The cost and profit of lithium compounds such as lithium spodumene, lithium mica, and imported lithium carbonate have changed over time. The cost and profit of recycling materials and the purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate also show different trends [41][44][47]. 3.7 Inventory - **Inventory of Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide**: The monthly and weekly inventories of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelter, downstream, etc.) have changed over time [49]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price, Production, and Export**: The prices, production, and export volumes of lithium batteries have changed over time. The production and inventory of battery cells and the winning bids of energy storage projects also show different trends [52][55]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The prices, costs, and production volumes of ternary precursors have changed over time. The supply - demand balance shows differences in demand, export, import, production, and balance from July 2024 to July 2025 [58][61]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The prices, costs, and production volumes of ternary materials have changed over time. The processing fees, export, and import volumes also show different trends [64][66]. 3.11 Demand - Phosphoric Acid Iron/Phosphoric Acid Iron Lithium - **Price, Cost, and Production**: The prices, costs, and production volumes of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium have changed over time. The monthly operating rates of phosphoric acid iron and phosphoric acid iron lithium also show different trends [68][71]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - **Production, Sales, and Penetration Rate**: The production, sales, export volumes, and sales penetration rates of new energy vehicles have changed over time. The retail - wholesale ratios of hybrid and pure - electric vehicles and the inventory warning and inventory indices of dealers also show different trends [76][77][80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with supply exceeding demand. The downward trend is difficult to reverse due to capacity mismatch [9][12]. - Lithium carbonate 2509 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 79220 - 81820 [9]. - It is predicted that the demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [9]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - Supply side: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 18,630 tons, a 2.53% decrease from the previous week, but higher than the historical average. In June 2025, the production was 78,090 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 81,150 tons, a 3.92% increase. The monthly lithium carbonate import volume in June 2025 was 17,698 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 22,000 tons, a 24.31% increase [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94,878.0487804878 tons, a 0.17% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 16,552 tons, a 1.40% increase. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month [8][9]. - Cost side: The daily - CIF price of 6% concentrate increased, lower than the historical average. The cost of外购 lithium spodumene concentrate was 71,661 yuan/ton, a 4.33% daily increase, with a production profit of 183 yuan/ton. The cost of外购 lithium mica was 77,138 yuan/ton, a 4.21% daily increase, with a production loss of 7,248 yuan/ton [9]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Data**: The futures closing prices of different contracts increased, with the 09 contract rising 5.01%. The basis of different contracts also changed, with the 09 contract's basis decreasing by 24.31%. The prices of upstream lithium minerals, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries showed various trends [14]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate decreased by 0.80%. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene increased by 4.33%, and the monthly processing cost decreased by 2.89%. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in June 2025 was 78,090 tons, and the import volume decreased by 16.31% [17]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly operating rate and production of lithium iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate lithium increased. The monthly operating rate and production of ternary materials showed different trends, and the monthly battery loading volume of new energy vehicles increased [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Mineral end news disturbances have intensified the bullish sentiment, leading to consecutive sharp increases in lithium carbonate contracts on Thursday and Friday. Long - position funds are trading on the strong expectation of supply - demand recovery, but the actual fundamentals have not yet reversed. The downstream is skeptical about the sustainability of lithium prices, and the spot market is operating cautiously. Given the increased risk of continuous rallies in the commodity market and potential contagion of fear on Monday, it is recommended that speculative funds observe cautiously, and lithium carbonate holders can seize entry points according to their own operations. Attention should be paid to the upcoming earnings reports of overseas mining companies and changes in the overall atmosphere of the industrial chain and commodity market [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Spot and Futures Market**: On July 25, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index reported 76,832 yuan in the morning, a weekly increase of 17.6%. The average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 77,000 yuan. The closing price of LC2509 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 80,520 yuan, a weekly increase of 15.1% [12]. - **Supply**: This week, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 18,630 tons, a 2.5% decrease from last week due to some manufacturers' maintenance. In July, supply is expected to remain strong, with a 6 - 7% month - on - month increase. In June 2025, China imported 17,698 tons of lithium carbonate, a 16.3% month - on - month and 9.6% year - on - year decrease. From January to June, the total import volume was about 118,000 tons, a 10.7% year - on - year increase. In July, the overseas supply pressure is relatively small [12]. - **Demand**: The Passenger Car Association expects the retail sales of new energy vehicles in July to reach about 1.01 million, with the penetration rate expected to rise to 54.6%. From January to June, the global new energy vehicle sales increased by 26.2% year - on - year [12]. - **Inventory**: On July 24, the domestic weekly lithium carbonate inventory was 143,170 tons, a 0.4% increase from last week. On July 25, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 11,996 tons, a 17.2% weekly increase [12]. - **Cost**: On July 25, the price of imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate was 840 - 880 US dollars per ton, a 17.8% weekly increase. The rebound of domestic lithium carbonate spot prices has driven the recovery of ore prices. The profits of salt plants that obtained low - cost ore sources have been significantly repaired, releasing their hedging demand. In June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 428,000 tons, an 18.1% year - on - year and 17.2% month - on - month decrease. From January to June, the cumulative import was 2.806 million tons, a 0.2% year - on - year decrease. In the first half of 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 6.1% year - on - year, while that from Africa decreased by 13.0% year - on - year, and the supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock ore eased in July [12]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - On July 25, the MMLC lithium carbonate spot index reported 76,832 yuan in the morning, a weekly increase of 17.6%, and the average price of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 77,000 yuan. The closing price of LC2509 on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 80,520 yuan, a weekly increase of 15.1% [12][20]. - The average discount in the standard electric carbon trading market of the exchange is about - 350 yuan, and the net short position of lithium carbonate contracts has increased significantly [23]. - The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1,650 yuan, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide is 9,780 yuan [26]. 3.3 Supply Side - This week, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 18,630 tons, a 2.5% decrease from last week. In June 2025, the domestic lithium carbonate output was 78,090 tons, an 8.3% month - on - month and 17.9% year - on - year increase, with a 43.9% cumulative year - on - year increase in the first half of the year. In July, supply is expected to remain strong, with a 6 - 7% month - on - month increase [31]. - In June, the output of lithium carbonate from spodumene was 39,450 tons, an 11.3% month - on - month and 32.5% year - on - year increase, with a 73.8% cumulative year - on - year increase from January to June. The output of lithium carbonate from lepidolite was 19,480 tons, an 8.6% month - on - month increase, with a 22.1% cumulative year - on - year increase from January to June [34]. - In June, the output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes increased by 7.1% to 13,350 tons, with a 20.9% cumulative year - on - year increase from January to June. The output of lithium carbonate from the recycling end was 5,810 tons, a 6.7% month - on - month decrease, with an 18.5% cumulative year - on - year increase from January to June [37]. - In June 2025, China imported 17,698 tons of lithium carbonate, a 16.3% month - on - month and 9.6% year - on - year decrease. From January to June, the total import volume was about 118,000 tons, a 10.7% year - on - year increase. In June, Chile exported about 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate to China, and the overseas supply pressure in July is relatively small. In the first half of the year, the total export volume of lithium carbonate + lithium sulfate from Chile to China was basically the same (calculated by LCE) [40]. 3.4 Demand Side - The battery field dominates lithium demand, accounting for 87% of global consumption in 2024. The growth of the lithium - salt consumption mainly depends on the development of the lithium - battery industry, while the traditional application fields have limited growth [44]. - In June, the production of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 1.2 million, a 28.3% year - on - year and 2.0% month - on - month increase. From January to June, the cumulative production was 6.457 million, a 38.7% increase. The wholesale sales in June were 1.241 million, a 27.0% year - on - year and 1.6% month - on - month increase. From January to June, the cumulative wholesale sales were 6.447 million, a 37.4% increase. From January to June, the global new energy vehicle sales increased by 26.2% year - on - year [47]. - From January to May, the total sales of new energy vehicles in Europe were 952,000, a 27.7% year - on - year increase, and in the United States were 648,000, an 8.9% year - on - year increase [50]. - In June, the total output of power and other batteries in China was 129.2 GWh, a 4.6% month - on - month and 51.4% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative output was 697.3 GWh, a 60.4% increase. The installed capacity of power batteries in June was 58.2 GWh, a 1.9% month - on - month and 35.9% year - on - year increase. From January to June, the cumulative installed capacity was 299.6 GWh, a 47.3% increase [53]. - In June, the output of lithium iron phosphate decreased slightly by 0.2% month - on - month, with a 47.8% year - on - year increase in the first half of the year. In July, the output of cathode materials is expected to increase slightly month - on - month [56]. 3.5 Inventory - On July 24, the domestic weekly lithium carbonate inventory was 143,170 tons, a 0.4% increase from last week. The inventory is still increasing due to the high domestic lithium carbonate output. On July 25, the registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange were 11,996 tons, a 17.2% weekly increase [63]. - The inventory cycle of cathode materials is about one week. The sales - to - inventory ratio of power batteries is at a recent median, and the inventory of energy - storage batteries is at a low level in recent years due to export rush [66]. 3.6 Cost Side - On July 25, the price of imported Australian SC6 lithium concentrate was 840 - 880 US dollars per ton, a 17.8% weekly increase. The rebound of domestic lithium carbonate spot prices has driven the recovery of ore prices. The profits of salt plants that obtained low - cost ore sources have been significantly repaired, releasing their hedging demand [74]. - In June, the domestic import of lithium concentrate was 428,000 tons, an 18.1% year - on - year and 17.2% month - on - month decrease. From January to June, the cumulative import was 2.806 million tons, a 0.2% year - on - year decrease. In the first half of 2025, the import of lithium concentrate from Australia increased by 6.1% year - on - year, while that from Africa decreased by 13.0% year - on - year, and the supply pressure of high - cost hard - rock ore eased in July [77].