Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The lithium ore, lithium salt, and battery cell markets are under significant inventory pressure, and the de - stocking process is slow. There is a negative feedback cycle of "lithium salt price drop - ore price decline - lithium salt price drop again" and a positive cycle of "futures price rise - production capacity release - increased ore consumption - ore price increase". The cost curve is flattening, driving the downward shift of the lithium carbonate price center [3]. - In the second half of the year, the futures market is expected to be divided into two stages: the futures price will rise in the early third quarter due to improved macro - sentiment, supply disturbances, and the "not - so - off - season" phenomenon; in the fourth quarter, the futures price is expected to decline as technological upgrades are completed and production volume is concentratedly released [3]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include improved macro - sentiment, supply - side disturbances, and the trading of the contradiction between high open interest and low warrant numbers. Negative factors include high future lithium ore production expectations, continuous inventory accumulation, and cost reduction due to technological upgrades [3][5]. Summary by Directory Futures Data - **Futures Price Forecast**: The price range of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is predicted to be between 68,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.6% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.5% [2]. - **Futures Contract Data**: The closing price of the lithium carbonate futures main contract is 72,880 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,600 yuan (2.24%) and a weekly increase of 6,220 yuan (9.33%). The trading volume is 1,118,226 lots, with a daily increase of 270,076 lots (31.84%) and a weekly increase of 354,198 lots (46.36%). The open interest is 411,638 lots, with a daily increase of 30,453 lots (7.99%) and a weekly increase of 69,492 lots (20.31%) [8]. - **Month - spread Data**: LC08 - 11 is 1,000 yuan, with a daily decrease of 60 yuan (- 5.66%) and a weekly increase of 240 yuan (31.58%); LC09 - 11 is 1,080 yuan, with no daily change and a weekly increase of 520 yuan (93%); LC11 - 12 is 20 yuan, with a daily decrease of 40 yuan (- 67%) and a weekly decrease of 360 yuan (- 106%) [10]. Spot Data - **Lithium Ore Price**: The average price of lithium mica (Li₂O: 2 - 2.5%) is 1,590 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 45 yuan (2.91%) and a weekly increase of 140 yuan (9.66%); the average price of lithium spodumene (Li₂O: 5 - 5.5%) is 5,445 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 145 yuan (2.74%) and a weekly increase of 470 yuan (9.45%) [15]. - **Carbon/Hydrogen Lithium Price**: The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 67,450 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,100 yuan (1.66%) and a weekly increase of 4,150 yuan (6.56%); the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 69,100 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 1,100 yuan (1.62%) and a weekly increase of 4,200 yuan (6.47%) [18]. - **Downstream Product Price**: The average price of power - type lithium iron phosphate is 32,340 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 265 yuan (0.83%); the average price of low - end energy - storage type lithium iron phosphate is 28,600 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 250 yuan (0.88%) [22][23]. Basis and Warrant Data - **Basis Data**: The comprehensive basis quote of four materials for LC2507 is - 212.5 yuan, with a daily decrease of 287.5 yuan [26]. - **Warrant Data**: The total number of warrants is 9,969, a decrease of 270 from the previous day. For example, the number of warrants at Wugang Wuxi decreased from 20 to 0, and at Waiyun Longquanyi decreased from 1,530 to 1,260 [31]. Cost and Profit No specific numerical summaries are provided in the text for cost and profit, only the presentation of relevant charts, including the production profit of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium spodumene concentrate (Li₂O: 6%), the production profit from purchased lithium mica concentrate (Li₂O: 2.5%), theoretical delivery profit, and import profit [29].