1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The current market has entered the expected trading phase. The expected government purchase and storage has led to the formation of a policy - bottom sentiment, and the consistent bullish expectation from July to August has boosted the near - end sentiment with the continuous strengthening of spot prices. However, a large number of piglets sold by group farms in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in July, and the market is trading the logic of social inventory reduction in advance. The impact path of this inventory reduction is more complex, and it is necessary to wait for subsequent spot price verification and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 15,080 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 100 yuan/ton; the Sichuan spot price is 14,550 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 150 yuan/ton; the Guangdong spot price is 16,640 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 400 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures Prices**: The price of the LH2509 contract is 13,865 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 5 yuan/ton; the price of the LH2511 contract is 13,390 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 35 yuan/ton; the price of the LH2601 contract is 13,490 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 5 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the LH2509 contract is 22,279 lots, a decrease of 16,062 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 78,196 lots, a decrease of 3,230 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the LH2511 contract is 4,392 lots, a decrease of 2,924 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 41,766 lots, a decrease of 123 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of the LH2601 contract is 1,798 lots, a decrease of 1,246 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 17,614 lots, an increase of 251 lots from the previous day [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the LH2509 contract is 1,215 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 105 yuan/ton; the basis of the LH2511 contract is 1,690 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 65 yuan/ton; the basis of the LH2601 contract is 1,590 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 95 yuan/ton; the spread between LH2509 and LH2511 is 475 yuan/ton with a year - on - year decrease of 40 yuan/ton; the spread between LH2511 and LH2601 is - 100 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 30 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, with the range of values from - 2 to 2. The strength levels are classified as weak, relatively weak, neutral, relatively strong, and strong, where - 2 represents the most bearish view and 2 represents the most bullish view [3] 3.3 Market Logic - The current market is in the expected trading stage. The expected government purchase and storage has formed a policy - bottom sentiment, and the consistent bullish expectation from July to August has driven the near - end sentiment. The spot price has been rising. However, a large number of piglets sold by group farms in the first quarter will start to be slaughtered in July, and the market is trading the social inventory reduction logic in advance. The impact path of this inventory reduction is complex and needs to be judged based on factors such as weight reduction, spot price reaction, and small - scale farmer's hoarding behavior. Wait for subsequent spot price verification and pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [4]