岁末年初大起大落。 经过年末的大涨大跌后，2026年开年票据市场大幅跳升高开。 1月6日，6个月期国股银票转贴现利率升至1.29%，3个月期国股银票转贴现利率则升至1.47%。此前 2025年12月底，票据利率大幅跳水后回弹，3个月期品种转贴现利率一度降至0.3%，1个月期品种转贴 现利率再度逼近零利率。 从历史数据来看，岁末年初，票据供需失衡带来价格大起大落已不罕见，背后与银行信贷冲量压力息息 相关。不过，有资深票据市场人士认为，随着信贷指标的意义相较于社融指标有所淡化，票据市场的运 行逻辑也可能随之发生转变。 对于票价年末大涨大跌之后的此番跳升表现，部分观点认为，这与机构冲击信贷"开门红"的节奏一致。 普兰金服报告认为，月初时点，一级市场票源供给跌至低位，企业贴现意愿温和，卖盘出票动力相对较 弱。而从需求角度看，市场交投活跃度低迷，买盘配置情绪较为谨慎，看涨预期下，部分买盘或倾向高 价收票。 银票转贴现利率高开 在关注"开门红"成色的同时，市场也密切关注即将披露的2025年12月金融数据。综合考虑信贷需求恢复 情况和年末票据市场走势，多数机构对12月信贷预期持保守态度。 2026年开年，票据转贴现利率大幅 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - Since 2025, banks have shown a new characteristic of using short-term loans to replace bills for credit expansion, with significant seasonal growth in short-term loans [4][14] - The volatility of bill rates has decreased, and there is a notable inversion between short and long-term rates [24][34] - Investment recommendations focus on state-owned banks with controllable retail risks, joint-stock banks with high safety margins, and city and rural commercial banks with strong profit growth potential [7][36] Summary by Sections 1. New Characteristics of Credit Expansion - In 2025, banks have not prominently used bills to boost loans, but short-term loans have seen significant growth, with new additions of 1.44 trillion and 1.16 trillion yuan in March and June, respectively, exceeding historical averages [14][18] - Bill financing saw a notable contraction in June, with a decrease of 4.109 trillion yuan, significantly higher than the three-year average [14][18] 2. Decreased Volatility of Bill Rates - In the first half of 2025, the 6M national stock bill discount rate fluctuated between 0.98% and 1.60%, showing reduced volatility compared to 170 basis points in 2023 and 105 basis points in 2024 [24][29] - The weakening of the credit attribute of bills is attributed to banks preferring short-term loans for credit scale, leading to a lack of significant fluctuations in bill rates [24][29] 3. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include state-owned banks with controllable retail risks, such as China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank of China [36] - Joint-stock banks with high safety margins and signs of clearing existing risks, such as CITIC Bank and China Merchants Bank, are also recommended [36] - City and rural commercial banks with growth potential and strong provisioning capabilities, including Jiangsu Bank and Hangzhou Bank, are highlighted [36]