利率上升 2025年年底，票据利率大幅下探。Wind数据显示，2025年12月30日，6个月期国股银票转贴现利率降至 0.6%，3个月期国股银票转贴现利率降至0.3%，均为2025年低点。2025年12月31日，票据转贴现利率有 所回升，6个月期及3个月期国股银票转贴现利率分别提高35BP、20BP。 对此，普兰金服方面表示，2025年12月，信贷适度平滑，2025年末月大行和中小行提前发力配置，主导 市场行情，开票量高位回暖，卖盘出现长收益短调整期限结构，票据利率震荡攀升。2025年年末，部分 机构规模临时调整，中小行需求纷纷涌现，买方低价抢票，卖盘出口寥寥，票价大幅跳水。随后，多数 机构信贷规模调整到位，买方需求收敛，供需力量转换，票据利率底部冲高。年末尾盘随着收口略有提 振，票价整体再度下降。 Wind数据显示，2026年开年，票据利率大幅度上升。2026年1月8日，6个月期国股银票转贴现利率为 1.24%，3个月期国股银票转贴现利率为1.50%，相比2025年12月31日分别上涨29BP和100BP。 《中国经营报》记者采访了解到，2025年12月，银行提前发力配置，买方主导市场，全期限票价开始走 低 ...

岁末年初大起大落。 经过年末的大涨大跌后，2026年开年票据市场大幅跳升高开。 1月6日，6个月期国股银票转贴现利率升至1.29%，3个月期国股银票转贴现利率则升至1.47%。此前 2025年12月底，票据利率大幅跳水后回弹，3个月期品种转贴现利率一度降至0.3%，1个月期品种转贴 现利率再度逼近零利率。 从历史数据来看，岁末年初，票据供需失衡带来价格大起大落已不罕见，背后与银行信贷冲量压力息息 相关。不过，有资深票据市场人士认为，随着信贷指标的意义相较于社融指标有所淡化，票据市场的运 行逻辑也可能随之发生转变。 对于票价年末大涨大跌之后的此番跳升表现，部分观点认为，这与机构冲击信贷"开门红"的节奏一致。 普兰金服报告认为，月初时点，一级市场票源供给跌至低位，企业贴现意愿温和，卖盘出票动力相对较 弱。而从需求角度看，市场交投活跃度低迷，买盘配置情绪较为谨慎，看涨预期下，部分买盘或倾向高 价收票。 银票转贴现利率高开 在关注"开门红"成色的同时，市场也密切关注即将披露的2025年12月金融数据。综合考虑信贷需求恢复 情况和年末票据市场走势，多数机构对12月信贷预期持保守态度。 2026年开年，票据转贴现利率大幅 ...

（来源：票风笔记） 在此前的投票中，多数人认为12月票据利率中枢在0.7%-0.8%之间，在经过两日的连续上行，今日明年6月到期国股银票转贴现利率已经来到0.80%关口， 上行幅度超出不少人的预期，是否还会继续上行呢？ | qeubee | | | | 票据双国股报价参考 | | 2025/12/04 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期限 | 到期日 | 全天价格区间 | 11 | 较昨日 (bp) | 昨日收盘价 | 今日收盘价 | | 托收 | 25年12月 | 1.23 - 1.23 | - | 0 | 1.23 | 1.23 | | 1M | 26年01月 | 0.10 - 0.11 | ﮯ | | 0.10 | 0.11 | | 2M | 26年02月 | 0.60 - 0.66 | ﮯ | (ଚି | 0.60 | 0.66 | | 3M | 26年03月 | 0.42 - 0.43 | - | -1 | 0.43 | 0.42 | | 4M | 26年04月 | 0.79 - 0.80 | | 1 | 0.79 | 0.80 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In early October, the bill rate dropped rapidly. The transfer and discount yield of 3M state-owned and joint-stock bank drafts across the year was only 0.47%. The expectation of real - economy credit supply within the year still needs to be boosted, and narrow - sense liquidity has an endogenous basis for loosening [1][2][10]. - Although narrow - sense liquidity has an endogenous basis for loosening, the central bank still emphasizes "preventing capital idling" in the third - quarter monetary policy meeting. The situation of a "lower limit" for repo rates still holds, and the yield range of 1 - year state - owned and joint - stock bank inter - bank certificates of deposit may be between 1.6% - 1.65% [3][11]. Summary by Directory 1. 10 - early - October Bill Rate Rapid Decline - The "five - factor method" shows that central bank investment, commercial bank credit supply, and fiscal factors may all be favorable to the capital market in the fourth quarter, indicating an endogenous basis for loosening of narrow - sense liquidity. The rapid decline in the transfer and discount yield of 3M state - owned and joint - stock bank drafts across the year in early October implies poor expectations for real - economy credit supply in the fourth quarter by commercial banks, which is favorable to narrow - sense liquidity. On October 9, the transfer and discount yields of overnight, 7 - day, 1M, 3M, and 6M state - owned and joint - stock bank drafts were 1.28%, 1.28%, 1.19%, 0.47%, and 0.77% respectively [2][10]. 2. Narrow - sense Liquidity 2.1 Central Bank Operations: Continuous Net Investment in Outright Repos - Short - term liquidity: In the past week (October 9 - 10), the central bank's pledged repos had a net withdrawal of 16423 billion yuan. As of October 10, the central bank's repo balance was 10210 billion yuan, significantly lower than on September 30 but still slightly higher than the seasonal level in previous years. The commercial bank system's excess reserves still depend on central bank investment [12]. - Medium - term liquidity: In October, the total maturity amount of outright repos was 13000 billion yuan, and the MLF maturity was 7000 billion yuan. On October 9, the central bank renewed 11000 billion yuan of 3M outright repos, with an excess renewal of 3000 billion yuan [13]. 2.2 Institution's Fund Lending and Borrowing Situation: Strong Supply and Demand - Fund supply: On October 10, large - scale banks' net fund lending (flow concept) was 38608 billion yuan, an increase of 14269 billion yuan compared to September 30. The net lending balance of large - scale banks was 45983 billion yuan, an increase of 3652 billion yuan compared to September 30. The net lending balance of money market funds was 18758 billion yuan, a decrease of 437 billion yuan compared to September 30. In early October, joint - stock commercial banks had large - scale net borrowing, and the net borrowing amount was at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years [16]. - Fund demand: On October 10, the balance of inter - bank pledged repurchase of bonds in the whole market was about 11.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 3358 billion yuan compared to September 30. The whole - market leverage ratio was 107%, an increase of 0.15 percentage points compared to September 30. The leverage ratio of non - legal person products was 112%, a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared to September 30 [26]. 2.3 Repo Market Transaction Situation: Volume Increase and Price Decrease at the Beginning of the Month - Fund volume and price: In the past week, the volume of the inter - bank pledged repo market increased while the price decreased, in line with the seasonal pattern at the beginning of the month. The median daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repos was 7.5 trillion yuan, an increase of 24969 billion yuan compared to September 29 - 30. The median R001 was 1.37%, a decrease of 9bp compared to September 29 - 30. The median spread between R001 and DR001 was 4.4bp, a decrease of 6.3bp; the median spread between GC001 and R001 was 13.2bp, an increase of 2.3bp, indicating small liquidity friction [28][30]. - Fund sentiment index: At the beginning of the month, the fund market was seasonally loose, and the fund sentiment index was around 50, generally loosening in the afternoon [32]. 2.4 Interest Rate Swaps: Slight Increase The 1 - year FR007 IRS interest rate decreased compared to last week. The median 1 - year FR007 IRS this week was 1.56%, a decrease of 2bp compared to last week, and the interest rate was at the 12% quantile since 2020 [33]. 3. Government Bonds: Low Net Payment Pressure for Government Bonds in the Coming Week 3.1 Next Week's Net Payment of Government Bonds - Affected by the holiday, the net payment of government bonds was small in the past week. In the coming week, the expected net payment of government bonds is 852 billion yuan, with a relatively low overall net payment pressure. Among them, the net payment of treasury bonds is 1261 billion yuan, and local bonds have a net repayment of 409 billion yuan. The net payment pressure is relatively large on Monday, and small on other weekdays [37]. 3.2 Current Issuance Progress of Government Bonds - As of October 11, the net financing progress of treasury bonds was 83.8%, an increase of 2.8% in the past week, with about 1.08 trillion yuan of remaining net financing space in 2025. The issuance progress of new local bonds was 83.6%, with 0.85 trillion yuan of remaining issuance space in 2025. The issuance progress of refinancing special bonds was 99.8%. Recently, the net supply scale of treasury bonds and special refinancing bonds has slowed down, but the issuance rhythm of new local bonds may still be relatively fast in October [38]. 4. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit: Significant Decline in Net Financing Scale, and the Pressure on Banks' Long - term Liabilities May Be Controllable 4.1 Absolute Yield - On October 10, the SHIBOR quotes for overnight, 7 - day, 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y were 1.32%, 1.45%, 1.56%, 1.58%, 1.64%, 1.67%, and 1.68% respectively. Among them, overnight, 7 - day, and 1M increased by - 6bp, 5bp, and - 1bp respectively compared to September 30, and other terms remained unchanged. The yields to maturity of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y inter - bank certificates of deposit of AAA - rated commercial banks on October 10 were 1.84%, 2.07%, 2.19%, 2.27%, and 2.33% respectively. Among them, 1M and 3M decreased by 1bp and 6bp respectively compared to September 30, and other terms remained unchanged [42]. 4.2 Issuance and Stock Situation - In the past week (October 9 - 10), the total primary issuance volume of inter - bank certificates of deposit was 16.52 billion yuan. In terms of issuance terms, the proportions of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y were 70%, 7%, 5%, 8%, and 10% respectively. Among them, 1M increased by 59.19 percentage points compared to last week, while 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y decreased by 16.75 percentage points, 13.39 percentage points, 13.11 percentage points, and 15.93 percentage points respectively compared to last week [46]. 4.3 Relative Valuation - On October 10, the spread between the yield to maturity of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit and R007 was 18bp, at the 37% quantile since 2020. The spread between the yield to maturity of 10 - year treasury bonds and 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit was 18bp, at the 41% quantile since 2020 [49].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant fluctuations in the bill discount rates in the market, particularly highlighting the sharp decline on July 30, 2023, and the implications for credit demand and supply dynamics in the banking sector [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On July 30, the central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 309 billion yuan, resulting in a net injection of 158.5 billion yuan after accounting for maturing reverse repos [1]. - The bill discount rates experienced a dramatic drop, with the 6-month bill discount rate falling to 0.2%, marking a 30 basis point decrease from the previous day [2]. - The 3-month and 6-month bill discount rates rebounded significantly in the afternoon after reaching historical lows, indicating a volatile supply-demand balance in the market [2][3]. Group 2: Seasonal Trends - July is traditionally a "small month" for credit, leading to expectations of a seasonal decline in credit issuance, which is reflected in the lower bill discount rates [4][5]. - The 6-month bill discount rate has shown a downward trend throughout July, dropping from 1.19% at the end of June to 0.41%, a decrease of 78 basis points [3][4]. Group 3: Credit Demand and Supply - The article notes that the bill discount rates have been influenced by banks' shifting preferences towards short-term loans, which have reduced the demand for bills [5][6]. - The analysis indicates that the recent fluctuations in bill rates are symptomatic of a broader imbalance in supply and demand within the market, exacerbated by seasonal factors and changing lending practices [5][6]. Group 4: Financial Data Insights - In June, the total new corporate loans reached 1.77 trillion yuan, with short-term loans contributing significantly to this figure, reflecting a trend towards short-term financing over bill financing [5][6]. - The current spread between bill rates and other financial instruments, such as government bonds and interbank certificates of deposit, has reached new highs, indicating a potential misalignment in market pricing [6].

Group 1 - The bill market experienced significant volatility as the end of the month approached, with banks increasingly focusing on "using bills to fill loans" due to insufficient credit demand [2][5] - On July 30, the bill discount rates saw a sharp decline, with the six-month bill discount rate dropping to 0.2%, marking a historical low, while the three-month rate also fell significantly [3][4] - The overall trend for bill discount rates in July has been downward, with the six-month rate decreasing from 1.19% at the end of June to 0.41%, a drop of 78 basis points [4][5] Group 2 - The significant fluctuations in bill rates indicate a serious imbalance in supply and demand within the bill market, with banks competing for bills leading to a drop in rates [4][6] - The traditional seasonal characteristics of bill rates have been affected, with a notable shift towards short-term loans, which are seen as a substitute for bills [6][7] - The People's Bank of China has increased open market operations to maintain liquidity, with a net injection of 158.5 billion yuan on July 30 [7][8]