Core Viewpoint - UBS has downgraded Kerry Properties' earnings forecast for the next two years by 25% to 27% due to updated project completion timelines, lower profit margin expectations, and reduced interest capitalization, while raising the target price from HKD 21.4 to HKD 24 and maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] Group 1: Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast for Kerry Properties has been reduced by 25% to 27% for the next two years [1] - The target price has been increased from HKD 21.4 to HKD 24, with a maintained "Buy" rating [1] - The company is expected to report a profit of less than HKD 1 billion for the first half of the year, with a projected profit margin of 15% for its Hong Kong development properties, similar to last year [1] Group 2: Market Opportunities - The development of private real estate investment trusts (REITs) in China is seen as a potential new funding channel for Hong Kong developers like Kerry Properties [1] - Over 40% of Kerry Properties' asset value is related to mainland investment properties, with an estimated 68% of these properties meeting the requirements for private REITs [1] - The asset divestiture is expected to drive an increase in the company's stock price, based on a current price-to-earnings ratio of 0.29 and a conservative valuation of 4.8% to 7% for mainland investment properties [1] Group 3: Rental Income Expectations - The company anticipates a mid-single-digit decline in rental income from both Hong Kong and mainland properties [1]

该行认为，私募房地产投资信托基金是资产回收的催化剂，因为嘉里逾40%的资产价值与内地投资物业 有关。该行估计，其68%的内地投资物业符合私募房地产投资信托基金的要求。以嘉里目前0.29倍市盈 率及4.8%至7%的保守内地投资物业市值率计算，相信资产剥离应可令其股价上升。该行预期，嘉里上 半年盈利将低于10亿港元，预计其综合香港发展物业利润率为15%，与去年相若。至于投资物业，该行 预计集团在香港及内地租金收入将录得中个位数跌幅。 智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发布研报称，下调嘉里建设(00683)今明两年的盈测25%至27%，以反映最新的 开发项目完成时间表、较低的利润率预测及较低的利息资本化，但将集团目标价由21.4港元上调至24港 元，维持"买入"评级。该行相信中国私募房地产投资信托基金市场的发展可为嘉里建设等香港发展商提 供资金回收的新渠道。在嘉里建设下半年潜在出售"金陵华庭"(Jinling Residences)二期后，投资者关注 其未来的催化因素。 ...