科创债压力测试
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科创债的压力测试
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2025-12-10 14:20
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The subscription sentiment for new science and technology innovation bonds has cooled. The supply scale of the primary market has decreased, and its anti - decline ability is being tested. When selecting bonds, it is advisable to choose individual bonds with high liquidity and strong credit support and wait for more attractive valuation points [2][4] Summary by Directory 1. Primary Issuance Scale and Structure - The subscription sentiment for new science and technology innovation bonds has cooled. Due to the rise in bond market interest rates, the financing cost of issuance subjects has increased. This week (December 1 - 5, 2025), the primary market supply scale reached 45.54 billion yuan, a significant decline from the previous two weeks. Affected by specific risk events and year - end market caution, the subscription sentiment has continued to cool, but the reading is still higher than that of non - science and technology general credit bonds [2][12] 2. Secondary Trading Activity and Pricing - **Rating and Industry Distribution**: The ratings of outstanding science and technology innovation bonds are highly concentrated. Bonds with an implied rating of AA+ and above account for 72.6%, and AA - rated medium - quality individual bonds account for 23.1%, reflecting the financing needs of some small and medium - sized science and technology innovation entities. The industry distribution is dominated by traditional industries, with the bond quantity of industries such as building decoration, public utilities, and comprehensive accounting for 37.4%. Textile and apparel, pharmaceutical biology, power equipment, and communication industries have an excess spread of over 13bp compared to the overall credit bonds of the industry [3][19] - **Liquidity**: Driven by the active trading of science and technology innovation bond ETFs this week, the number of transactions of science and technology innovation bonds has increased to 724, far exceeding the weekly average of 400 since November. However, the weekly turnover rate of science and technology innovation bonds has dropped to 1.2%, and the liquidity is weaker than the overall general credit bonds [3][28] - **Yield and Price Comparison**: The anti - decline ability of science and technology innovation bonds is being tested. Last week, the average weekly trading yield of 1 - 3 - year exchange - traded science and technology innovation bonds increased by 6.8bp compared to the previous week, with a stronger adjustment amplitude than general credit bonds of the same term. The reasons for the large retracement are the weakening of demand - side support and the partial erasure of the premium advantage. In terms of the internal price comparison of science and technology innovation bonds, the spread between the index component bonds and non - component bonds has been stable at 10 - 15bp in the past two weeks, and the spread between the inter - bank variety and the component bonds is basically within 5bp. For the 1 - 3 - year variety, there is still a compression space of 24bp [4][34]