专题：2025基金年终大盘点：冠军基年内狂飙233%，主动权益重获主导，全行业规模逼近36万亿新高 来源：深圳市投资基金同业公会 深圳金融是全市高质量发展重要的支柱之一，是全球资本市场重要一极，是产业金融创新重要的实践承 载地之一。2025年，深圳金融业紧扣"防风险、强监管、促高质量发展"工作主线，扎实做好金融"五篇 大文章"，加快建设更具全球重要影响力的产业金融中心，为深圳建设更具全球影响力的经济中心城市 和现代化国际大都市提供更加强有力的金融支撑。以下十件大事，记录了2025年深圳金融业锐意进取、 奋发有为的坚实足迹。 1 一批重点金融项目落地 金融业实现高质量发展 优质高能级金融机构汇聚大湾区 坚持"心诚+行程"并举，打造全球招商大会金融专场等品牌，充分展现深圳金融创新活力与发展机遇。 2025年以来，桑坦德银行深圳分行、招银金融投资子公司等15家持牌金融机构重磅落地，深圳成为内地 港资机构最多的城市。 引入4家金融科技子公司；设立10只银行系基金，金额超500亿元；新增险资基金总规模近500亿元，抢 抓保险资金长期股票投资试点机遇，推动平安保险、太平保险旗下私募证券基金管理人落户；推动粤港 澳大湾区创 ...

晨会纪要（2026/01/13） 编辑人 崔健 022-28451618 SAC NO：S1150511010016 cuijian@bhzq.com 渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2026.01.13） 基金研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 晨 会 纪 要 请务必阅读正文之后的声明 渤海证券股份有限公司具备证券投资咨询业务资格 1 of 5 晨会纪要（2026/01/13） 基金研究 市场成交火热，华泰柏瑞沪深 300ETF 分红创历史新高——公募基金周报 行业研究 美国关税政策迎变化，我国情绪消费市场将超 4 万亿——轻工制造&纺织服 饰行业周报 市场成交火热，华泰柏瑞沪深 300ETF 分红创历史新高——公募基金周报 宋 旸（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150517100002） 张笑晨（证券分析师，SAC NO：S1150525070001） 1、本周市场回顾 上周统计区间为 2026 年 1 月 5 日至 2026 年 1 月 9 日，权益市场主要指数全部上涨，其中，涨幅最大的是 科创 50，上涨 9.80%。31 个申万一级行业中仅银行一个行业下跌，涨幅前五的行业是综合、国防军工、传 媒、有色金属和计算机 ...

Core Viewpoint - The development of technology finance is crucial for promoting the dual advancement of technology and finance, as emphasized in China's economic planning and regulatory frameworks [1][3][4]. Group 1: Importance of Technology Finance - Technology finance is positioned as a key support for achieving high-level technological self-reliance and building a strong technological nation [2][3]. - The development of technology finance helps accelerate breakthroughs in critical core technologies and supports the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries [3][4]. - It broadens the boundaries of financial services, creating new growth points for financial institutions amid narrowing net interest margins [3]. Group 2: Policy and Structural Developments - The implementation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the construction of a financial service system that aligns with technological innovation [4][6]. - By the end of 2025, the banking and insurance sectors are expected to enhance their financial service mechanisms to better support technological innovation [4]. - The scale of technology finance continues to expand, with significant increases in loan balances for high-tech enterprises and technology-based SMEs, indicating a growing financial service coverage [4][5]. Group 3: Enhancements in Financial Services - The People's Bank of China has introduced various financial tools to support major technological projects and SMEs in their growth phases [5]. - Financial support for advanced manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and strategic emerging industries has been continuously strengthened, with notable annual growth rates in relevant loans [5]. - The establishment of multiple technology finance reform pilot zones aims to reduce financing costs for technology enterprises and optimize financial resource allocation [13][14]. Group 4: Role of Patient Capital - Patient capital is essential for supporting long-term technological innovation, focusing on projects with long-term returns rather than short-term profits [8][9]. - The development of patient capital is crucial for guiding production factors towards new quality productivity, which is characterized by high technology and efficiency [9][10]. - Initiatives to encourage patient capital investment in technology innovation include increasing the investment ratio of pension and insurance funds in early-stage hard technology funds [11][12]. Group 5: Challenges and Future Directions - Despite the potential of patient capital, challenges such as an unbalanced supply structure and a lack of market-driven capital remain [11][12]. - Future efforts should focus on optimizing the market ecosystem, enhancing incentive mechanisms, and strengthening cross-cycle capabilities to attract more long-term capital into technology innovation [12][17]. - The establishment of technology finance reform pilot zones has shown promise, but further improvements in policy support and market mechanisms are necessary to enhance the sustainability of financial support for technology innovation [17].

《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革、推进中国式现代化的决定》提出，鼓励和规范发展天使投资、风 险投资、私募股权投资，更好发挥政府投资基金作用，发展耐心资本。培育壮大耐心资本、引导更多耐 心资本进入科技创新领域，是做好科技金融这篇大文章的应有之义。 转自：经济日报 耐心资本是指对资本回报有较长期限展望且对风险有较高承受力的资本，不以追求短期收益为首要目 标，而更重视长期回报的项目或投资活动，通常不受市场短期波动干扰。从全球实践看，耐心资本主要 来源于政府投资基金、养老基金、保险资本等，是私募创投基金、公募基金等引入中长期资金的重要来 源，能够为投资项目、资本市场提供长期稳定的资金支持，是科技创新和产业创新的关键要素保障，是 发展新质生产力的重要条件和推动力。与传统资本相比，耐心资本具有长期主义导向、价值深耕理念、 风险耐受特质，致力于获取持久稳健的回报。 科技创新更需要耐心资本的支持。科技创新是发展新质生产力的核心要素，原创性、颠覆性的科技创新 活动同时也具有创新成果的不确定性，不易产生立竿见影的投资回报，多数尚在初创期的科技企业通常 会面临融资难、融资贵等问题。耐心资本不只关注企业的短期收益状况，更看重企业的技 ...

利率层面，根据2025年中央经济工作会议的精神，货币政策继续维持"适度宽松"的取向，具体操作层面，会议提出"灵活高效运用降准降 息等多种政策工具"，表述重点更多落在政策的效率和主动性上，2026年的降息幅度预计和2025年类似。在利率趋势方面，预计分为两阶 段，呈现先下后上的走势。第一阶段（2026年一季度），利率下行。受益于继续维持"适度宽松"的货币政策思路，预计债市短期内在下行 之后会形成反弹力量，在下一次降息落地之前，预计利率将震荡下行。一方面是近期隔夜资金利率站稳1.3%以下，流动性呵护态度明显， 另一方面是随着2026年初财政供给提速，货币政策落地预期也将提升。第二阶段（2026年二季度后），利率上行。随着后续通胀走势的复 苏，以及房地产企稳的见效，2026年利率或是先下后上。 明明（中信证券首席经济学家） 2025年，债券市场整体呈现"上有顶、下有底"的区间震荡格局。展望2026年，债券市场预计将延续分化与震荡格局，以下几类债券可能具 备更显著的相对价值。 首先，在货币政策维持适度宽松、资金面预计保持平稳的背景下，中短端利率债及高等级信用债能提供较为稳定的票息收益，是构建组合 底仓、抵御波动的核心 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant role of patient capital from financial institutions in supporting the growth of technology-driven enterprises in Beijing, with a focus on long-term partnerships and tailored financial solutions [1][2][3] - Beijing Bank has achieved a technology finance loan balance exceeding 440 billion yuan, serving over 30,000 specialized and innovative enterprises, indicating a strong commitment to supporting the local economy [1] - The Chinese government's emphasis on developing technology finance, green finance, inclusive finance, pension finance, and digital finance is reflected in the strategic initiatives of Beijing Bank, which aims to empower the industrial ecosystem [1] Group 2 - The successful IPO of Moer Technology, a domestic GPU manufacturer, was supported by Beijing Bank through initial loans and flexible financing solutions, showcasing the importance of sustained financial backing for long-cycle, capital-intensive enterprises [2] - Beijing Bank has developed a "Science and Technology Radar" evaluation system to identify promising startups and offers a variety of financial products tailored to different stages of enterprise development, including loans for research and development and equity financing [3] - The bank has provided credit funding exceeding 1.45 trillion yuan to nearly 60,000 technology-oriented small and medium-sized enterprises, with a significant percentage of listed companies on various stock exchanges having received financial support from Beijing Bank [3]

Group 1 - The bond market is expected to exhibit a "top-down, bottom-up" oscillation pattern in 2025, with a continuation of differentiation and volatility anticipated in 2026, highlighting certain bonds with relative value [2] - Under a backdrop of moderately loose monetary policy and stable liquidity, medium- to short-term interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds are expected to provide stable coupon income, serving as core components for portfolio construction and volatility resistance [2] - Super long-term government bonds have become attractive after significant adjustments, with potential for trading rebounds in the short term, despite expected increased volatility in a more positive macro environment [2] Group 2 - Focus on regional and industry-specific credit bond opportunities is emphasized, with structural digging for relative value becoming crucial in a low overall credit spread environment [3] - The monetary policy is expected to maintain a "moderately loose" stance, with a two-phase interest rate trend anticipated for 2026: a downward trend in the first quarter followed by an upward trend in the second quarter [3] - The central economic work conference indicates that the government will optimize debt restructuring and replacement methods, which may alleviate local government debt risks in 2026 [4] Group 3 - Innovation in financial products such as technology innovation bonds and green bonds is expected to expand, supported by government policies aimed at enhancing financing channels for tech enterprises [4] - The improvement in corporate profitability expectations, particularly in industries like steel and photovoltaics, is likely to alleviate some corporate debt issues and reduce credit risks in related industry bonds [5] - Key developments in the bond market infrastructure are anticipated, including the unification and high-quality development of the domestic bond market and the deepening of the interconnection between the mainland and Hong Kong bond markets [5]

Core Viewpoint - The bond financing by securities firms remains robust entering 2026, with significant growth observed in 2025, driven by policy guidance and declining interest rates, making bond financing a key method for firms to supplement operating funds and refinance debts [1][3]. Group 1: Bond Financing Scale and Growth - In 2025, 77 securities firms issued a total of 1,004 domestic bonds, amounting to 1.89 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of nearly 40% [3]. - Major players in bond issuance included China Galaxy Securities, Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, CITIC Securities, and others, with each issuing over 100 billion yuan [3]. - The increase in bond financing is attributed to the need for refinancing existing debts and supplementing operating funds amid a favorable policy and market environment [3]. Group 2: Types of Bonds and Financing Costs - In 2025, the issuance of short-term financing bonds totaled 326, amounting to 574.17 billion yuan, while regular corporate bonds accounted for 678 issues totaling 1.32 trillion yuan [4]. - The average coupon rate for outstanding securities company bonds was 1.97%, with some high-rated firms achieving rates as low as 1.54% [4]. - The average financing cost for short-term bonds was 1.76%, with a minimum of 1.52% and a maximum of 2.25% [4]. Group 3: Emerging Trends in Bond Issuance - The demand for perpetual subordinated bonds continued to grow, with 14 securities firms issuing a total of 66.8 billion yuan in 2025, marking an increase of over 40% from 2024 [7]. - The issuance of sci-tech bonds also saw rapid growth, totaling 83.44 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a rising share of overall bond issuance [7]. - The average spread for bonds issued by securities firms was 43.27 basis points, while sci-tech bonds had a lower spread of 35.18 basis points, indicating a potential advantage for these types of bonds [7]. Group 4: International Financing Activities - In 2025, seven securities firms issued 30 offshore bonds, raising 4.703 billion USD, with growth exceeding 30% compared to 2024 [8]. - Notable examples include Tianfeng Securities planning to issue up to 960 million USD in offshore bonds to refinance existing debts [8]. - The trend of increasing offshore bond issuance is expected to continue as Chinese securities firms expand their international business [9].

Core Viewpoint - The bond financing activities of securities firms in China are expected to remain robust into 2026, driven by policy guidance and declining interest rates, with a significant increase in issuance observed in 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Financing Scale and Growth - In 2025, 77 securities firms issued a total of 1,004 domestic bonds, amounting to CNY 1.89 trillion, representing a year-on-year increase of nearly 40% [2][3]. - Major players in the bond issuance include China Galaxy Securities, Guotai Junan, Huatai Securities, CITIC Securities, and others, with each issuing over CNY 100 billion [2]. - The primary uses of the raised funds are to repay short-term debts and supplement operational capital, with short-term financing bonds primarily aimed at operational funding [2][3]. Group 2: Types of Bonds and Financing Channels - The issuance of perpetual subordinated bonds has seen a significant rise, with 14 securities firms issuing a total of CNY 668 billion in 2025, marking an increase of over 40% from 2024 [4][5]. - The issuance of sci-tech bonds has also grown, with CNY 834.4 billion issued in 2025, reflecting a rising share of the overall bond issuance by securities firms [4][5]. - The average financing cost for outstanding securities company bonds is 1.97%, with some high-rated firms achieving rates as low as 1.54% [3]. Group 3: International Financing Activities - In 2025, seven securities firms issued 30 offshore bonds totaling USD 4.703 billion, with growth exceeding 30% compared to 2024 [5][6]. - The offshore bonds primarily serve to supplement the operational capital of international subsidiaries and repay existing offshore debts [5]. - The trend of increasing offshore bond issuance is expected to continue, supported by a favorable environment for USD bond issuance as US Treasury rates decline [6].

点评：2025年券商发债规模激增近四成，头部券商主力地位稳固。低利率环境利于降低融资成本，补充 资本助力业务扩张。科创债崛起与境外融资升温优化了债务结构，提升抗风险能力。这夯实了行业发展 基础，增强金融服务实体经济效能，为市场整体稳健运行提供有力支撑。 ｜2026年1月9日星期五｜ NO.1 2025年券商发债规模激增近四成！科创债崛起、境外融资升温 Wind显示，长城证券、东方证券2026年第一期公司债将在近日发行，中信建投和中国银河2026年度第 一期短期融资券发行也已提上日程。回望刚刚过去的2025年，券商债券融资步伐不停，全年境内发债规 模高达1.89万亿元，同比增幅近40%。头部券商是发债主力军，中国银河证券、国泰海通、华泰证券、 中信证券、招商证券、广发证券的债券发行规模均在千亿元以上。在政策引导、利率下行等因素驱动 下，债券融资成为券商补充营运资金、置换债务的关键手段。与此同时，永续次级债发行需求稳固、科 创债崛起成新秀、海外融资活跃，共同助力券商业务扩张与资本实力提升。 NO.3 扎堆恢复申购，基金"抢跑"2026年 2026年伊始，基金市场再现"抢跑"态势，成立仅月余的产品扎堆恢复日常申购。 ...