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科创债ETF规模上冲2500亿元
HUAXI Securities· 2025-09-28 11:08
Group 1: Market Trends - The net issuance of Sci-Tech bonds peaked in July 2025 and has since declined, with a net issuance of only 14.1 billion yuan from September 22-28, down 28.2 billion yuan week-on-week[1] - The total scale of Sci-Tech bond ETFs reached 247.4 billion yuan by September 26, 2025, with a weekly increase of 80.7 billion yuan, primarily driven by the second batch of ETFs[1][2] Group 2: Trading Activity - During the first week of the Sci-Tech bond ETF launch (July 14-18), trading volume reached a peak, with transaction counts for Sci-Tech bonds and their ETFs accounting for 18% and 14% of credit bonds, respectively[1] - Recent trading activity has stabilized, with transaction counts for Sci-Tech bonds and their ETFs fluctuating around 10% and 6% over the past five weeks[1][2] Group 3: Bond Composition Changes - The first batch of 10 Sci-Tech bond ETFs saw a growth of 9.8 billion yuan this week, with significant increases in the bonds issued by central enterprises in sectors like brokerage, electricity, and energy[2] - The bonds that were reduced in holdings are primarily from the coal, building materials, and electricity sectors, with a more dispersed maturity distribution[2] Group 4: Yield Spread Analysis - The "non-component bond - component bond" yield spread was at 10.8 basis points on September 26, 2025, reflecting a slight increase of 0.7 basis points from the previous week[3] - The yield spread has shown variations based on maturity, with lower spreads for bonds maturing in 0-1 year and over 5 years, averaging around 8 basis points, while 1-5 year bonds have higher spreads of 10-13 basis points[3] Group 5: Investment Strategy Insights - Investors should focus on bonds with significant yield spread differences, as a higher spread indicates that component bonds may be overbought, while non-component bonds offer better value[4] - As of September 26, 2025, seven entities had yield spreads exceeding 20 basis points, suggesting their component bonds are overbought, while four entities had spreads below 8 basis points, indicating potential for further compression in component bond valuations[4]