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还有哪些转债“进可攻,退可守”?
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2025-08-17 11:11
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In a high - valuation environment, some fixed - income investors have a "fear of high prices" due to their sensitivity to potential drawdowns. Institutions that have earned substantial returns from equity - linked assets in the first seven months of this year want to lock in profits while participating in the equity market [6]. - High - convexity convertible bonds can better leverage the "attack when the market rises, defend when the market falls" advantage. A quantitative strategy based on convertible bond convexity has achieved a 19.1% return in 2025 (monthly rebalancing, AA - and above ratings), outperforming the CSI Convertible Bond Index by 4.4% [8]. - The number of convertible bonds with the "attack - and - defend" feature is decreasing. High - gamma convertible bonds are becoming harder to find, and the crowding of the high - convexity strategy may be increasing [12]. - For fixed - income + investors seeking stable returns, high - convexity convertible bonds are a good choice. For investors who can tolerate some volatility, it's not advisable to exit easily. The long - term focus for bond selection is on the technology + AI sectors, and there are still some left - hand opportunities for undervalued leading stocks in related industries [15]. Summary by Directory 1. Which Convertible Bonds are "Attack - and - Defend"? - As of August 15, 2025, the convertible bond's 100 - yuan premium rate reached 29.21%, the highest since 2024 and in the 98% historical percentile since 2021. The median price of convertible bonds is around 132 yuan, and the market may continue to rise [6]. - The high - convexity strategy has shown significant excess returns in 2025. The latest positions of the strategy on August 15, 2025, are provided in the report [8][11]. 2. Market One - Week Performance - As of Friday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3696.77, up 1.70% for the week, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 475.25, up 1.60% for the week. The top - three rising sectors in the stock market were communication (+7.11%), comprehensive finance (+7.07%), and non - bank finance (+6.57%), while banking (-3.22%), steel (-2.00%), and textile and apparel (-1.36%) declined [16]. - No new convertible bonds were listed this week. 357 convertible bonds rose, accounting for 78%. The top - five gainers and losers in terms of price changes and valuation changes are provided in the report [19]. 3. Important Shareholder Convertible Bond Reduction Situations - Companies that announced convertible bond reduction this week include Fuchun Dyeing & Weaving, Zhongbei Communication, Southeast Grid, Tianrun Dairy, and Lingyi Precision Manufacturing [26]. - A list of issuers with high convertible bond holding ratios by major shareholders and their reduction situations is provided [27]. 4. Convertible Bond Issuance Progress - Shenergy Co., Ltd. has a board proposal for a 20 - billion - yuan convertible bond issuance, and Awinic Technology Co., Ltd. has passed the shareholders' meeting for a 19.01 - billion - yuan issuance [28]. 5. Private EB Project Updates There were no progress updates on private EB projects this week [29]. 6. Style & Strategy: Small - Sized, Low - Rated, and Equity - Biased Bonds Outperform - This week, the small - sized, low - rated, and equity - biased style in the convertible bond market outperformed. As of the last trading day of the week, high - rated convertible bonds underperformed low - rated ones by 1.96 pct, large - sized bonds underperformed small - sized ones by 2.41 pct, and equity - biased bonds outperformed debt - biased ones by 5.74 pct [30]. 7. One - Week Convertible Bond Valuation Performance: Convertible Bond Valuations Reach New Highs - The 100 - yuan premium rate of the convertible bond market reached a new high. As of the last trading day of the week, it closed at 29.21%, up 0.84% from the previous week. The median full - caliber convertible bond conversion premium rate rose 0.58 pct to 28.93%, and the market - value - weighted conversion premium rate (excluding banks) decreased 0.93 pct to 46.16% [40]. - For equity - biased convertible bonds, the median conversion premium rate closed at 10.53%, up 0.97 pct from the previous week. For debt - biased convertible bonds, the median pure - debt premium rate closed at 11.76%, up 0.84 pct from the previous week [40]. - In terms of extreme pricing, as of the last trading day of the week, there were 2 convertible bonds below par value, 1 below the bond floor, and 5 with a YTM greater than 3%, with their quantities in the 12.5%, 17.3%, and 11.1% historical percentiles since 2016, respectively [43]. - The median YTM of bank convertible bonds was - 5.54%, 7.33 pct lower than the 3 - year AAA corporate bond yield. The median YTM of AA - to AA+ debt - biased convertible bonds was - 2.16%, 4.15 pct lower than the 3 - year AA corporate bond yield [43]. - The adjusted 100 - yuan premium rate increased, reaching high historical percentiles in the past six months and since 2018 [56].