Core Insights - The Hong Kong real estate market is showing signs of recovery after a six-year adjustment period, with significant improvements expected in quality office rents and residential prices by Q4 2025 [1][2] - The rental prices for Grade A offices in Central are projected to increase by 0% to 5% by 2026, while small to medium-sized residential prices are also expected to rise by approximately 5% [1][2] Market Supply and Demand - The market has faced challenges due to high inventory levels, with an estimated 101.6 months and 67.4 months needed to absorb the inventory for 2023 and 2024, respectively [1] - By the end of 2025, the inventory absorption period is expected to decrease to an average of about 51.3 months, with private residential supply returning to normal levels by the end of 2026 [1] Rental Trends - The rental market for Grade A offices is anticipated to reach its bottom by 2026, with Central and Tsim Sha Tsui leading the recovery, recording rental increases of 0.5% and 0.2% in the second half of the year [2] - The overall market rental rates may decline by 0% to 5%, with an expected vacancy rate of around 15% despite rising demand [3] Retail Market Dynamics - Retail rents, particularly in premium shopping malls, have been under pressure, with expected declines of 9.1% and 7.7% for premium malls and core street shops, respectively, by 2025 [3] - The retail leasing activity is seeing a rebound, especially in core shopping areas like Causeway Bay and Central, despite some traditional restaurants closing down [3][4] Future Outlook - The rental prices for core street shops are projected to decrease by 0% to 5%, while premium mall rents may drop further by 5% to 10% next year [4]