道指、标普500指数创历史新高 周二，美股三大指数全线收涨。其中，道指、标普500指数均创历史新高。截至收盘，道指涨484.90 点，涨幅为0.99%，报49462.08点；纳指涨151.35点，涨幅为0.65%，报23547.17点；标普500指数涨 42.77点，涨幅为0.62%，报6944.82点。由于AI热潮下存储芯片严重短缺引爆涨价潮，半导体板块出现 明显强势行情，其中美光科技表现领跑。 现货白银涨6.18%，报81.3187美元/盎司。COMEX白银期货涨6.00%，报81.260美元/盎司，银价重回此 前高位。COMEX铜期货涨1.35%，报6.0655美元/磅。 现货铂涨7.27%，报2458.73美元/盎司。现货钯涨6.51%，报1829.10美元/盎司。 WTI 2月原油期货收跌1.19美元/桶，跌幅2.04%，报57.13美元/桶。布伦特3月原油期货收跌1.06美元/ 桶，跌幅1.772%，报60.70美元/桶。 国内商品市场夜盘普涨 早上好！先来看一下隔夜行情消息。 国内商品市场夜盘普遍收涨，焦煤涨5.61%，玻璃涨4.53%，纯碱涨4.15%，焦炭涨4.14%，烧碱涨 3.09%，乙 ...

公司目前预计，2026 财年第三季度净销售额将达到约 11.9 亿美元，高于其 11 月公布的 11.1 亿至 11.5 亿美元的原预期区间。 早在去年 12 月，该公司就曾表示，预计季度净销售额将达到原预期区间的上限。 专题：聚焦2025年第三季度美股财报 受益于终端市场全面复苏及订单需求强劲，微芯科技（MCHP）于周一上调了 2026 财年第三季度净销 售额预期，推动公司股价在盘前交易中上涨 4%。 这家芯片制造商正迎来业务回暖，此前客户在疫情期间积累的大量芯片库存已基本消化完毕，而库存积 压曾对芯片需求造成严重冲击。 这家芯片制造商正迎来业务回暖，此前客户在疫情期间积累的大量芯片库存已基本消化完毕，而库存积 压曾对芯片需求造成严重冲击。 公司目前预计，2026 财年第三季度净销售额将达到约 11.9 亿美元，高于其 11 月公布的 11.1 亿至 11.5 亿美元的原预期区间。 公司首席执行官史蒂夫・桑吉表示："尽管 12 月所在季度节假日密集，但我们的订单情况依然十分强 劲。新一季度（3 月所在季度）期初的订单储备，远优于去年 12 月所在季度的期初水平。" 微芯科技称，公司已大幅削减内部库存，这将有 ...

南华期货玻璃纯碱产业周报 ——反复震荡，驱动不显 寿佳露（投资咨询资格证号：Z0020569） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年1月5日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 * 远端交易预期 1、观察玻璃冷修预期（春节前）进一步兑现的程度。前期盘面下跌后，部分产线冷修预期被强化，影响市场 预期和远月供需逻辑。另一方面，玻璃冷修将影响纯碱刚需。 . 当前影响玻璃纯碱走势的核心矛盾有以下几点： 1、春节前仍有部分玻璃产线冷修等待兑现，继续影响远月定价和市场预期。目前政策端对供应的扰动尚不能 排除，关注供应预期的变化。 2、纯碱则以成本定价为主，虽然供应端偶有降负，但新产能待投，产量也仍在中高位置，没有趋势性减产的 情况下纯碱估值难以有向上弹性，且随着玻璃冷修预期再起，纯碱刚需有下滑的预期。 3、现实层面，无论供应预期如何变化，目前玻璃中游的高库存需要被消化；至于纯碱，新产能仍然继续，产 能扩张周期并未结束，尚无法脱离供需过剩的一致预期。 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 玻璃：近端大部分冷修兑现，当前日熔加速下滑至15.2万吨下方，春节前供应扰动尚在，日熔仍有进一步下 滑的预期，继续等待兑现 ...

果蔬品日报 | 2025-12-30 苹果差果价格宽松，红枣出货速度加快 苹果观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘苹果2605合约9163元/吨，较前一日变动-84元/吨，幅度-0.91%。现货方面，山东栖霞80# 一二 级晚富士价格4.10元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-963，较前一日变动+84；陕西洛川70# 以上半 商品晚富士价格4.20元/斤，较前一日变动+0.00元/斤，现货基差AP05-763，较前一日变动+84。 近期市场资讯，库内晚富士整体交易氛围一般，目前客商多包装自存货源发货为主，调果农货积极性不高。目前 陕北部分产区果农货询价增多，但实际成交仍有限，但主流仍以客商发自存货源为主。西部产区客商零星寻货， 多以果农两级货源为主，下捡、高次少量走货，成交有限；客商少量包装自存货源补充市场。山东产区出库放缓， 少量75#货源出库为主，维纳斯、奶油果按需出库，其余货源交易不多。栖霞80#一二级片红果农意向成交价3.7-4.5 元/斤，65#、70#出库价格1.8-2.2元/斤附近。陕西洛川产区果农统货出库价格3.5-4.0元/斤，半商品出库价格4.0-4.3 元/ ...

发布日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日 【冠通期货研究报告】 一、市场行情回顾 玻璃日报：短期震荡 1，期货市场：玻璃主力低开震荡，收盘十字星。120 分钟布林带走紧口喇 叭，偏震荡信号，短线关注布林上轨线附近压力。成交量较昨日减 35.3 万手， 持仓量较昨日增 1877 手；日内最高 1063，最低 1045，收盘 1051，（较昨日结 算价）涨 6 元/吨，涨幅 0.57%。 2，现货市场：周末河北市场多下调 20-30 元/吨，下游低价补货，整体产销 尚可；华东市场，涨跌互现，浙江 2 条产线放水，部分价格走高，山东在华北低 价货源冲击下，重心松动，仍刚需为主；西北市场暂稳，下游陆续放假，市场有 价无市。 3，基差：华北现货价格 1000，基差-51 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 12 月 25 日，全国浮法玻璃日均产量为 15.45 万吨，比 18 日-0.39%。全国浮法玻璃产量 108.4 万吨，环比-0.17%，同比-3.06%。行业平均 开工率 73.89%，环比-0.1%；平均产能利用率 77.42%，环比-0.14%。昨日广东一 条浮法玻璃生产线停产冷修，设计产能为 90 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including researchers for different products such as crude oil, asphalt, polyester, etc. [4] Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The energy and chemical market is generally under pressure. Crude oil and asphalt markets face supply - demand imbalances with potential mid - term downward risks. Polyester, short - fiber, and related products are affected by seasonal demand weakness and cost factors. Polyolefins are in a supply - surplus and demand - weak pattern, while纯碱 remains in a state of oversupply. Paper pulp lacks a clear trend due to supply - demand mismatches [7][31][85][124][143] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices declined. The US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers affected the market sentiment, but the impact on total supply was limited. The 4Q supply surplus deepened, and the market inventory accumulation accelerated [7] - **Fundamental Changes**: IEA and EIA adjusted supply and demand expectations. IEA slightly lowered the global crude oil supply growth rate, while EIA made different adjustments for 2025 and 2026. Demand growth was mainly driven by non - OECD countries, especially China. The inventory accumulation rate in 4Q 2025 and 1Q 2026 increased after the December report adjustment [9][10] - **Outlook**: Short - term market has no clear driver, mainly trading on news. Mid - term, there are still downward risks [7] Asphalt - **Market Review**: Futures and spot prices showed some declines. The cost was affected by the situation of Venezuelan oil, and the supply and demand were both weak. The overall market was in a state of shock [30] - **Fundamental Changes**: Cost was influenced by the Venezuelan oil situation. Supply side: the overall开工 rate increased slightly, but regional differences existed. Demand was affected by cold weather and seasonality, and the inventory of factories and social warehouses decreased. The production profit increased slightly [32][33][34] - **Outlook**: The oil price has no strong support, and the asphalt market is expected to continue to fluctuate [31] Polyester - **Market Review**: PTA prices were affected by crude oil and inventory expectations. Ethylene glycol faced supply - demand pressure and weakening spot support [57] - **Main Drivers**: Downstream consumption was expected to be stable in the short - term but would weaken gradually. PTA was expected to have a slight price increase due to potential new polyester capacity. Ethylene glycol was expected to maintain a weak trend due to supply - demand imbalance and market caution [59][60][62] - **Outlook**: PTA was expected to have a slight price increase, while ethylene glycol was expected to be weak [58] Short - fiber - **Market Review**: Last week, the price of polyester short - fiber declined due to cost and supply - demand factors. This week, it is expected to be slightly warmer due to cost support [67] - **Main Drivers**: Downstream consumption support was weakening. Short - fiber production was expected to be stable, with relatively loose supply and weakening demand [68][69] - **Outlook**: The price of polyester short - fiber is expected to be slightly warmer [67] Polyolefins - **Market Review**: Futures and spot prices of polyolefins declined. The market was in a state of supply surplus and demand weakness [84] - **Fundamental Changes**: The impact of plant maintenance on supply decreased, and the supply pressure increased. The demand was weak, with most PE downstream loads declining and PP开工 remaining stable. Production profits varied by raw material type, and inventory management faced challenges [85][92][99] - **Outlook**: The polyolefin market is expected to continue to operate weakly at the bottom, with attention to support levels [85] 纯碱 - **Market Review**: The price of the main 纯碱 contract declined, and the supply increased while the demand was weak. The inventory decreased significantly [119] - **Market Situation**: Supply: production and开工 rate increased. Inventory: the decrease was not sustainable due to weak demand. Spot price: remained stable in a narrow range. Downstream: the demand for 纯碱 from float glass and photovoltaic glass was weak [125][131][137] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the market may continue to grind at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view is taken [124] Paper Pulp - **Market Review**: The price of the paper pulp contract increased, and the spot price of wood pulp also showed an upward trend. However, the demand was weak, and there was no clear trend [142] - **Fundamental Changes**: The pulp shipment volume of major producing countries, import volume, and inventory showed different trends. The downstream market faced cost - transfer difficulties [144][149][156] - **Outlook**: Short - term, it is recommended to be cautious and observe due to lack of a trend [143]

曾经一瓶难求的"液体黄金"，现在价格崩到让人看不懂——飞天茅台电商补贴价1399元，比1499元官方 指导价还低100元，创近年新低！ 从2023年2678元跌到现在，两年狂跌43%，这还不算完：2025年年初2200元，6月破2000，10月失守 1700，11月跌破1600，现在直接冲到1399元，跌势根本停不下来！ 你觉得1399元能抄底吗？是趁低价自饮入手，还是继续观望？评论区说说你的看法！ 核心原因就俩：1.5亿瓶社会库存压顶，相当于2-3年的销量，经销商为回笼资金含泪抛货，卖一瓶亏一 瓶；商务宴请、礼品消费场景收缩，加上电商百亿补贴搅局，价格体系彻底乱了。 但别着急抄底！茅台已经动手控量、整治低价渠道，春节旺季也要来了。可1.5亿瓶库存消化完得3年， 现在到底是真触底，还是半山腰？ ...

Core Insights - The Hong Kong real estate market is showing signs of recovery after a six-year adjustment period, with significant improvements expected in quality office rents and residential prices by Q4 2025 [1][2] - The rental prices for Grade A offices in Central are projected to increase by 0% to 5% by 2026, while small to medium-sized residential prices are also expected to rise by approximately 5% [1][2] Market Supply and Demand - The market has faced challenges due to high inventory levels, with an estimated 101.6 months and 67.4 months needed to absorb the inventory for 2023 and 2024, respectively [1] - By the end of 2025, the inventory absorption period is expected to decrease to an average of about 51.3 months, with private residential supply returning to normal levels by the end of 2026 [1] Rental Trends - The rental market for Grade A offices is anticipated to reach its bottom by 2026, with Central and Tsim Sha Tsui leading the recovery, recording rental increases of 0.5% and 0.2% in the second half of the year [2] - The overall market rental rates may decline by 0% to 5%, with an expected vacancy rate of around 15% despite rising demand [3] Retail Market Dynamics - Retail rents, particularly in premium shopping malls, have been under pressure, with expected declines of 9.1% and 7.7% for premium malls and core street shops, respectively, by 2025 [3] - The retail leasing activity is seeing a rebound, especially in core shopping areas like Causeway Bay and Central, despite some traditional restaurants closing down [3][4] Future Outlook - The rental prices for core street shops are projected to decrease by 0% to 5%, while premium mall rents may drop further by 5% to 10% next year [4]

Omdia最新研究显示，2025年第三季度，美国PC出货量（不含平板）同比下降1%，至1770万台，这是连续 第二个季度下滑。尽管宏观经济压力明显，但消费端出货量在本季度仍增长8%，达到760万台。商用市场 出货量基本保持稳定，同比下降不到1%，而教育领域和政府部门出货量则出现较大下滑，同比下降23%。 尽管连续两个季度整体下滑，Omdia对假日季的市场前景依然保持乐观，2025年，美国PC市场出货量仍将 增长4%。 Omdia分析师Greg Davis表示： "教育领域和政府部门在经历了年初的强劲开局后，已进入持续下降的趋势。原 因主要有两方面。首先，学校和政府机构的资金投入减少。美国在 2025年在这些领域经历了大幅裁员，因此 技术支出下降也在意料之中。其次，不那么显而易见的因素是年初为缓解关税影响而建立的高库存水平正在逐 步消化。" Omdia最近的一项渠道调研显示，全球各商用渠道合作伙伴普遍预计2025年第四季度库存水平将下 降。 Davis继续表示： "随着这些过剩库存被清理，为新出货腾出空间，预计整体下滑幅度将开始放缓，尤其是在 商用市场。Windows 10向Windows 11的持续过渡也将进 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company acknowledges recent operational and reputational challenges due to misjudgments in market trends and aggressive expansion strategies, leading to a departure from prudent financial management principles [1][6][9]. Company Response - The founder and chairman expresses sincere apologies to partners and emphasizes the importance of their support during difficult times [1][6]. - The company has halted all non-core expansions and investments, entering a "wartime state" focused on survival and stabilizing its operations [1][6][9]. - The chairman's focus has shifted back to market and sales, with plans to visit stores nationwide to engage directly with consumers and address inventory issues [1][6][9]. Core Assets - The company holds over 30,000 tons of high-quality base liquor in the core production area of Maotai Town, which is considered its most valuable asset and quality foundation [1][6][9]. Future Commitment - The company aims to rebuild trust through consistent actions and quality products, promising transparency and respect for all partners [1][6][9]. - The chairman emphasizes that the future lies in practical actions and collaboration rather than grand plans, highlighting the need for time and effort to regain trust [1][6][9].