虽然住宅市场未有公布重大刺激措施，但该行相信更佳的经济前景、支持性的吸引人才签证/入境政 策，加上以相对较低价格恢复卖地，应有利于未来市场情绪及发展商的盈利能力复苏。该行继续看好香 港住宅市场，并重点推介。高盛予新地、恒地及信置"买入"评级。 高盛发表研报指，《财政预算案》一如该行预期，港府未有宣布任何针对住宅市场的重大刺激措施，该 市场自2025年中以来经已见底，但整体语调更为正面，受资本市场活动活跃及经济复苏带动，印花税及 企业税收高于预期，加上持续控制财政开支，2025/26年度财政结余修订为29亿港元盈余。 ...

高盛发布研报称，将今年楼价升幅预测由5%提高至12%，料政府推出的签证及移民政策将带动需求。 另外，租金强劲增长（2023至25年间累升约两成），加上按揭利率下降，或令更多人"转租为买"。自 2024财年初撤辣后，交易成本大为降低，亦可能刺激投资需求。该行料未来政府政策将继续支持人口、 收入增长及住屋可负担能力。 股份方面，该行将恒基地产（00012）及信和置业（00083）评级由"沽售"一举升至"买入"，认为两者更 能受惠于香港住宅市场的上升周期，目标价分别大升至39港元及14.6港元，同时重申对新鸿基地产 （00016）的"买入"评级，目标价大升至159港元；3间公司的单位库存占市场整体约36%，并有不同新 项目正在推进。另外，该行将长实集团（01113）评级由"买入"降至"中性"，因其对香港物业市场的敞 口较小，目标价升至53港元。 受惠于资本市场活跃，该行预期今年核心中环区写字楼租金将同比升3%，其他地区则大致持平。不 过，该行对零售市场前景较为审慎，料租金仅温和增长2%，因来自港人外游及网购的竞争持续。 股份方面，该行将恒基地产（00012）及信和置业（00083）评级由"沽售"一举升至"买入"，认 ...

股份方面，该行将恒基地产(00012)及信和置业(00083)评级由"沽售"一举升至"买入"，认为两者更能受 惠于香港住宅市场的上升周期，目标价分别大升至39港元及14.6港元，同时重申对新鸿基地产(00016) 的"买入"评级，目标价大升至159港元；3间公司的单位库存占市场整体约36%，并有不同新项目正在推 进。另外，该行将长实集团(01113)评级由"买入"降至"中性"，因其对香港物业市场的敞口较小，目标价 升至53港元。 另一方面，该行降级九龙仓置业(01997)，由"买入"一举降至"沽售"，并降级领展房产基金(00823)评级 由"买入"下调至"中性"，因两者对零售业敞口较大，且各自面临公司层面的特定问题或其他结构性挑 战；目标价分别降至28港元及41.3港元。最后，该行将港铁公司(00066)评级由"中性"降至"沽售"，目标 价则升至36.1港元。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研报称，将今年楼价升幅预测由5%提高至12%，料政府推出的签证及移民 政策将带动需求。另外，租金强劲增长(2023至25年间累升约两成)，加上按揭利率下降，或令更多 人"转租为买"。自2024财年初撤辣后，交易成本大为降低， ...

高盛调高恒基地产(00012)及信和置业(00083)评级至"买入"，该行认为两公司更能受惠香港住宅市场的 上升周期，目标价分别调高至39港元及14.6港元。该行维持新鸿基地产(00016)"买入"评级，目标价升至 159港元。高盛指，3间公司的单位库存占市场整体约36%，并有新项目推进，最能受惠于香港楼价复 苏。 高盛表示，长实集团(01113)本地物业项目有限，英国酒吧业务面对成本压力及消费者习惯转变，将长 实评级由"买入"降至"中性"，但上调目标价至53港元。 智通财经APP获悉，高盛发布研究报告称，港府推出的签证及移民政策将带动楼市需求，同时受到租金 强劲增长，以及按揭利率下降，或令更多人"转租为买"，将今年香港楼价升幅预测由5%调高至12%。 受惠资本市场活跃，高盛预期今年核心中环区写字楼租金升3%，其他地区则大致持平。该行对零售市 场前景较审慎，预计租金温和增长2%，因来自港人外游及网购的竞争持续。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent stabilization and slight recovery of housing prices in various cities, particularly highlighting the situation in Hong Kong where prices have begun to rebound after a prolonged decline [2][6][17]. Group 1: National Housing Market Trends - In January 2026, the sales prices of commercial residential properties in 70 major cities in China showed a narrowing decline compared to previous months, indicating a potential stabilization in the housing market [2][3]. - Specifically, in first-tier cities, the second-hand residential prices decreased by 0.5%, while second and third-tier cities saw declines of 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively, with reductions in the rate of decline [3][4]. Group 2: Hong Kong Housing Market Recovery - In 2025, Hong Kong experienced a significant increase in property transactions, with a total of 80,702 contracts, marking an 18.7% year-on-year rise, the highest in four years [6]. - The private residential price index in Hong Kong rose approximately 3.25% to 3.3% year-on-year in 2025, marking the first annual increase since 2021 [6][8]. - The Central City Leading Index (CCL) for second-hand residential properties in Hong Kong showed a continuous upward trend, with a 1.47% increase week-on-week and a 3.29% increase month-on-month as of February 2026 [6][8]. Group 3: Factors Driving Hong Kong's Market Recovery - The recovery in Hong Kong's housing market is attributed to several factors, including the "withdrawal of hot measures" policy, interest rate cuts, economic growth, and rising rents, which collectively reduced the burden on homebuyers [20][21]. - The "withdrawal of hot measures" eliminated additional stamp duties for non-local buyers, significantly lowering costs for potential investors [20]. - The mortgage interest rates in Hong Kong have decreased due to the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate cuts, easing the financial pressure on homebuyers [21]. Group 4: Impact of Mainland Buyers - The influx of mainland buyers has significantly influenced the Hong Kong housing market, with a record 13,906 registrations from mainland buyers in 2025, a 14.1% increase from 2024 [26][27]. - Mainland buyers are primarily composed of talent brought in through various immigration programs and parents of students studying in Hong Kong, contributing to increased housing demand [28][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate development and real estate services sectors [6]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong real estate market is experiencing a recovery, with residential prices showing the largest month-on-month increase since April 2025, and a significant year-on-year increase in transaction volumes due to the Lunar New Year effect [1][2]. - The inventory pressure in the residential sector is improving, with the unsold completed inventory decreasing to 23,000 units and the absorption cycle returning to historical norms [3]. - The commercial real estate sector is seeing a rebound in retail sales value and office net absorption, although a full recovery in commercial rents is still awaited [4]. Summary by Sections Residential Market - In January 2026, the Centaline Property Leading Index increased by 2.2% month-on-month, marking the highest monthly increase in the current recovery phase [2]. - The private residential price index showed a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 3.3% as of December 2025 [2]. - The absorption cycle for completed unsold units has shortened to 14 months, while the cycle for under-construction unsold units is at 50 months, both returning to average levels seen over the past two decades [3]. Rental Market - The private residential rental index reached a historical high, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 4.3% in December 2025 [3]. - The average rental yield for residential units below 70 square meters is 3.35%, which remains above the mortgage cap rate of 3.25% [3]. Commercial Real Estate - The retail sector's sales value for 2025 was HKD 380.5 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.0%, marking a recovery from a 7.3% decline in 2024 [4]. - The net absorption of office space reached its highest level since 2018, driven by a rising Hang Seng Index and active IPOs, although the vacancy rate remains high at 17.3% [4]. - Commercial rents are still under pressure, with December rental indices for retail and office spaces showing year-on-year declines of 4.7% and 3.3%, respectively [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for Link REIT (823 HK) with a target price of HKD 50.59, highlighting its focus on essential local consumption and stable growth characteristics [29].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Hong Kong residential market is recovering as demand rebounds, with expectations of a gradual decrease in new housing supply starting this year or next [1] - The improved supply-demand outlook is expected to sustain the recovery momentum in the residential market, which is favorable for Midland Holdings [1] - The forecast for Hong Kong residential property prices is an increase of 5% to 10% this year, with transaction volumes in the primary and secondary markets expected to grow by 5% and 8% respectively [1] Group 2 - The profit forecasts for Midland Holdings for the years 2025 and 2026 have been raised by 29% and 22% respectively [1] - The target price for Midland Holdings has been adjusted to HKD 3.61, with a "buy" rating assigned [1]

Core Insights - The report from JLL indicates a significant correlation between the Hang Seng Index and residential capital values in Hong Kong, with the index leading by approximately 2.2 months over the past five years [1] - Since June 2020, both the Hang Seng Index and residential capital values have shown synchronized trends, but a divergence occurred starting July 2024, where the index rebounded while residential values lagged but showed signs of slight recovery by August 2025 [1] - JLL's senior director, Li Yuanfeng, suggests that the strong performance of the stock market is expected to support the Hong Kong residential market in the near term, with anticipated interest rate cuts further boosting investor confidence [1] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rebounded by 27.8% from the beginning to the end of last year, while the average daily trading volume on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange is projected to reach HKD 249.8 billion by 2025, a significant increase of approximately 90% year-on-year [2] - The secondary residential market in Hong Kong is expected to see a transaction volume of 42,300 units in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.9%, with total transaction value reaching HKD 299 billion, up 14.4% year-on-year [2] Historical Trends - Historical data over the past decade shows a consistent positive correlation between the average annual daily trading volume in the stock market and the number of secondary residential transactions in Hong Kong [2] - The "wealth effect" drives the synchronization between stock market activity and residential transaction volumes, as rising stock values enhance investor confidence and lead to diversified asset allocation [2] - Although there is no direct causal relationship between the stock market and the residential market, historical trends indicate a high degree of interconnection, reflecting overall macroeconomic sentiment [2]

Core Insights - Hong Kong's residential property prices have reached a turning point after three years of decline, with a projected annual increase of 3.3% in 2025, marking the first annual rise since 2021 [1][6] - The improvement in market sentiment is driven by interest rate cuts and a decrease in inventory levels, contributing to a steady recovery in property prices [1][6] Price Trends - December 2025 saw a month-on-month price increase of 0.2%, marking the seventh consecutive month of growth, following a revised increase of 1.1% in November [1][4] - The cumulative decline in property prices over the past three years has been nearly 30% from the peak in 2021, influenced by high mortgage rates and a weak economic outlook [1][4] Government Measures - The Hong Kong government has introduced a series of measures starting in 2024, including the removal of home purchase restrictions and the relaxation of down payment requirements, aimed at supporting the real estate sector [3] Market Dynamics - The downward trend in interest rates, with the latest cut in October 2024 being the fifth since September, has reduced financing costs for homebuyers, which is a key factor in the recovery of property prices [6] - A decrease in inventory levels has also supported price stability from the supply side [6] Market Outlook - Analysts express cautious optimism regarding the Hong Kong property market, indicating that the trajectory will depend on various factors, including interest rate movements and stock market performance [7] - Projections for 2026 suggest a potential price increase of 3-5% according to CBRE, while Morgan Stanley forecasts a 10% rise, driven by increased investment demand and strong rental trends [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the Hong Kong real estate sector [1]. Core Insights - The Hong Kong residential market is stabilizing and showing signs of recovery, with new home sales volume approaching the peak levels of 2019, and second-hand home transactions reaching a new high since 2022. The inventory de-stocking cycle has significantly reduced from 125 months to 61 months [1][8]. - The retail property market is still under pressure, but rental declines are narrowing, and vacancy rates in core areas are decreasing. Office rents and occupancy rates are under pressure, with significant regional market differentiation [1][19][25]. - The residential market is expected to continue its upward trend in 2026, driven by lower mortgage rates and an increase in rental yields. Over 80% of residential properties are projected to achieve a balance between supply and rental demand [1][34][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Hong Kong Real Estate Market Review - Residential transaction volumes are increasing, with new home sales reaching 21,000 units in 2025, a 99.1% increase from the cycle's bottom [8][12]. - The inventory pressure has eased, with the de-stocking cycle for new homes dropping significantly [16]. - Retail property rents are still adjusting, but the rate of decline is slowing, and some core areas are showing signs of recovery [19][21]. - Office rents have decreased by 21.1% since their peak in June 2019, with rising vacancy rates [25][26]. 2. Outlook for the Hong Kong Real Estate Market - The residential market is expected to continue its recovery, with structural differentiation being a key feature [34]. - The ongoing Federal Reserve rate cuts are likely to support the Hong Kong real estate market's recovery [34][37]. - The proportion of properties achieving a balance between supply and rental demand is expected to increase, enhancing home buying demand [39][40]. - Talent attraction policies are anticipated to boost potential home buying demand as more skilled individuals move to Hong Kong [44][50]. 3. Valuation Elasticity of Hong Kong Property Companies - Current valuations of major Hong Kong property companies are at historically low levels, indicating potential for recovery [1][3]. - Companies with a higher proportion of development business and land reserves are expected to exhibit greater valuation elasticity [1][3]. - The top three property companies in terms of sales in 2025 are Sun Hung Kai Properties, Henderson Land Development, and Sino Land, with significant year-on-year sales growth for Henderson and Sino [1][3].