智通财经APP获悉，瑞银发表研究报告指出，香港住宅市场正处于转折点。报告引述中原集团创办人施 永青的观点，认为香港住宅物业市场将在未来3至5年进入上升周期。报告指出，住宅市场复苏主要受以 下因素支持：一、新盘及二手住宅成交量强劲回升；二、私人房屋供应已见顶。 对于公共房屋供应增加，报告认为这将减少政府对私人市场的干预需要，有助维持社会稳定。由于公共 房屋的目标群体与私人住宅买家并不重迭，预期供应增加不会影响私人住宅需求。 在大湾区融合方面，报告指出香港楼市在"一国两制"框架下具有差异化优势，包括：产权保护、资金自 由流动、与美元挂钩及低税制。因此，预期内地投资者对香港物业的需求将保持强劲，特别是大学区附 近的物业具有较高投资潜力。 零售方面，报告指出该行业因电子商务而面临结构性挑战，餐饮业虽然仍具韧性，但整体租赁需求疲 弱。相比之下，写字楼市场在资本市场最近改善的支持下，已出现复苏迹象。预期商业物业将逐步改 善，但仍需留意宏观经济及全球货币政策的不确定性。 报告称，在内地人才及学生持续流入带动下，香港住宅空置率维持在约4%的低水平，租金增长稳健， 反映住宅需求仍然强劲。供应方面，由于发展周期较长及近年土地销售 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong residential market is showing signs of recovery in 2023, with increased transaction volumes and rising prices after a period of decline [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - From January to October 2023, the transaction volume of private residential properties in Hong Kong increased by 21% year-on-year [2]. - The private residential price index in Hong Kong saw a year-on-year increase of 1.6% in September 2023, marking the first positive change since 2022 [2]. - The Hong Kong City Leading Index is improving, indicating a continued trend of rising transaction volumes and prices in the residential market [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Price Recovery - The recovery in residential prices is attributed to rental yields surpassing mortgage rates, with the difference exceeding 4% at its peak [3]. - Following the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and a decline in Hibor rates, new residential mortgage rates fell below rental yields for the first time since 2022 [3]. - As of August 2023, the new mortgage rate was 3.4%, still lower than the current rental yield of 3.7%, enhancing the attractiveness of purchasing homes [3]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The change in supply and demand dynamics is fundamental to the stabilization of the Hong Kong property market, driven by an influx of talent and international students [4]. - Over 270,000 talent visas were issued in 2023 and 2024, doubling the annual issuance compared to 2021, with 90% of applicants from mainland China [4]. - The number of international students in Hong Kong increased by nearly 80% for the 2024 academic year compared to 2022, contributing to housing demand [4]. - The rental index for private residential properties has risen over 15% since its low in January 2023, indicating a shift towards a supply-demand imbalance [4].

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong real estate stocks have collectively risen, with significant increases in major companies, indicating a positive trend in the market supported by various factors [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Henderson Land (00012) increased by 4.04% to HKD 29.38 - Wharf Holdings (00004) rose by 3.29% to HKD 21.98 - Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) gained 0.72% to HKD 98.25 [1] Group 2: Price Recovery - Since the low in March 2025, Hong Kong residential prices have rebounded over 4% - J.P. Morgan forecasts an additional price increase of approximately 5% by the end of 2026 [1] Group 3: Supporting Factors for Recovery - Observed resilience in stock market performance, historically correlated with property prices - Release of pent-up demand leading to strong transaction volumes - Banks have raised property valuations - Decrease in the number of listings in the secondary market - Increasing number of transactions completed above valuation prices, fostering a "fear of missing out" sentiment - Anticipated further decline in interest rates - Decreasing inventory levels and rising rental prices - Steady interest from mainland buyers - Recovery in the financial sector [1] Group 4: Market Sentiment and Risks - The positive outlook is contingent on the continued resilience of the Hang Seng Index, as the real estate market is driven by sentiment - Key downside risk identified is a potential stock market crash, although this is not considered the base case by J.P. Morgan [1]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong real estate stocks are experiencing a collective rise, with significant increases in major companies' stock prices, indicating a positive trend in the market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Henderson Land (00012) increased by 4.04% to HKD 29.38 - Wharf Holdings (00004) rose by 3.29% to HKD 21.98 - Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016) saw a 0.72% increase to HKD 98.25 [1] Group 2: Market Recovery Indicators - Since the low point in March 2025, Hong Kong residential prices have rebounded over 4% - Positive signs for continued recovery include resilient stock market performance, strong transaction volumes, and banks raising property valuations - The number of listings in the secondary market is decreasing, and more transactions are occurring above valuation prices, fostering a "fear of missing out" sentiment [1] Group 3: Future Predictions - JPMorgan forecasts a further rebound of approximately 5% in property prices by the end of 2026 - The outlook is contingent on the sustained resilience of the Hang Seng Index, as the real estate market is driven by sentiment [1]

Group 1: Market Overview - Since the low point in March 2025, Hong Kong residential prices have rebounded over 4% [1] - Positive signs for continued recovery in the residential market include resilient stock market performance, suppressed demand being released, and strong transaction volumes [1] - The bank anticipates a further rebound of approximately 5% in property prices by the end of 2026 [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - There is a decline in the number of listings in the secondary market, and more transactions are occurring above valuation prices, fueling a "fear of missing out" sentiment [1] - Interest from mainland buyers remains strong, with expected structural population growth [1] - The financial sector is recovering, contributing significantly to Hong Kong's GDP [1] Group 3: Risks and Preferences - The bank's constructive outlook is contingent on the continued resilience of the Hang Seng Index, as the real estate market is driven by sentiment [1] - Preferred developers include Sino Land (00083) with a low risk profile and a 6% dividend yield, followed by Henderson Land (00012) with a higher dividend yield of 6.6%, albeit with some risk of dividend cuts [2] - The bank would consider buying New World Development (00016) if its stock price falls to around HKD 85 [2]

王兆麒预计新盘销情比二手市场好，但货尾量仍然高企，预计要再减少12,000至13,000个单位后，才有 利楼价回升，以现时销售步伐，最快在2026年上半年回落至较健康水平。短期内按月成交将徘徊在 5,000宗，预计今年一、二手成交量会上升至60,000至62,000宗。而发展商积极去货，受货尾囤积影响， 相信推盘时会提供更多优惠及财务计划去吸引买家。 另外，香港政府各类人才计划令劳动人口及高收入人士规模稍为回升，对住宅租务需求继续有刚性支 持，未来数月住宅租金走势保持平稳，今年有望再上升4至5%，创历史新高。料2026年租金走势继续平 稳向上，再升3至5%。 智通财经APP获悉，莱坊高级董事及大中华区研究及咨询部主管王兆麒表示，美国关税继续为全球经济 带来不确定性，美联储很可能于10月议息再减息0.25%以推动经济，预测香港楼价在未来数月开始好 转，但2025年全年香港楼价或升2至3%。2026年上半年有望明显回暖，楼价明年全年有机会升5%。王 兆麒预料，香港银行会在年内再下调最优惠利率(P)0.25%，按息将回落至近3%水平，低于租金回报 率，料吸引更多投资者入市。 王兆麒指出，市场气氛明显回暖，但由于货尾 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is experiencing a significant recovery after three years of decline, driven by pent-up demand from both local and mainland buyers, as well as supportive government policies and favorable macroeconomic conditions [4][11][21]. Market Recovery - The recovery in the Hong Kong property market has been evident since early this year, with the number of transactions for new residential properties exceeding 1,000 for eight consecutive months from February to September, the longest streak since 2019 [4][9]. - In October, the market is expected to maintain this momentum, with new residential transactions projected to exceed 2,000 [4]. - The secondary housing market is also showing signs of recovery, with expectations of over 4,000 transactions in October [4][9]. Price Trends - The private residential price index has risen for five consecutive months as of August, indicating a recovery from a prolonged downturn [4][9]. - Rental prices have increased for nine months straight, reaching a six-year high, with average rents for units under 40 square meters in various districts showing strong upward trends [7][8]. Buyer Demographics - The proportion of mainland buyers in the Hong Kong secondary residential market has been steadily increasing, nearing 20% over the past five years, particularly in the luxury segment [12]. - Many mainland buyers are attracted by Hong Kong's talent and investment policies, which aim to draw professionals and high-net-worth individuals [12][15]. Government Policies - The Hong Kong government has implemented various talent input programs, receiving over 190,000 applications since last year, with nearly 140,000 approved, contributing to the demand for housing [14]. - Recent government initiatives, including adjustments to investment immigration thresholds and educational policy changes, are expected to provide additional support to the real estate market [21]. Macroeconomic Factors - The linkage of the Hong Kong dollar to the US dollar means that local interest rates are closely tied to US Federal Reserve policies. Recent rate cuts by the Fed have led to lower mortgage rates in Hong Kong, enhancing buyer confidence [17]. - The anticipated continuation of a low-interest-rate environment is expected to further stimulate demand in the housing market [17]. Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment is positive, with significant interest from buyers, particularly in prime locations, and a notable increase in the number of applications for new developments [19][21]. - The competitive nature of the market is highlighted by high subscription rates for new property launches, indicating strong demand [21].

Core Insights - The new property market in Hong Kong has seen robust trading activity, with monthly transactions exceeding 1,000 units for eight consecutive months, breaking the previous record set in 2021 [1] - The recent U.S. interest rate cuts are expected to positively impact the Hong Kong stock market and real estate sector, with predictions of increased investment in physical assets [1] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in mainland China may introduce favorable policies for the economy and real estate, potentially stimulating the Hong Kong market further [1] Group 1 - The one-hand residential property sales have consistently surpassed 1,000 units monthly since February, marking the longest streak since 2019 [1] - The market is anticipated to maintain a strong atmosphere, with expectations of one-hand transaction volumes reaching 2,000 units in October [1] - The secondary residential market is projected to see transaction volumes exceed 4,000 units in October, reflecting a 5% increase from September's estimated 3,800 units [1] Group 2 - The latest property price index from Midland reports a value of 130.1, marking a 0.77% weekly increase and reaching a new high since August of the previous year [2] - Year-to-date, property prices have risen by 1.54%, with expectations for further increases of approximately 1% in October due to positive market factors [2] - The current price index does not yet reflect the effects of U.S. interest rate cuts and the upcoming policy report, suggesting a continued upward trend in property prices [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is expected to show initial signs of stabilization in the first half of 2025, driven by economic recovery and a favorable rental yield environment, despite ongoing high inventory levels and short-term focus on destocking by property developers [1][2][3]. Group 1: Market Trends - The Hong Kong property market is experiencing a pulse-like recovery due to policy easing, with mainland Chinese buyers accounting for 24% of new and second-hand transactions in 2024, although the residential price index is projected to decline by 7.1% in 2024 [2]. - As of August 2025, the private residential price index has only slightly decreased by 0.24% compared to the end of 2024, indicating a stabilization trend [2][5]. - The transaction volumes for new and second-hand homes in Hong Kong increased by 13.9% and 13.8% respectively from January to August 2025 [2]. Group 2: Economic Factors - The recovery of the financial sector is crucial for the overall economic rebound in Hong Kong, with a 3.1% year-on-year GDP growth in Q2 2025 and a 43% increase in new insurance premiums in Q1 2025 [3]. - The low interest rate environment, with mortgage rates dropping to around 2% in mid-2025, has made housing more attractive compared to rental yields, which are estimated to be between 1.8% and 2.7% [4][5]. Group 3: Rental Market Dynamics - The implementation of the "Talent Scheme" has led to an influx of approximately 350,000 talents and their families into Hong Kong, boosting rental demand and resulting in a 6% increase in the private residential rental index in 2023 [4]. - The rental yield has increased due to falling property prices and rising rents, with smaller units (under 100 square meters) showing higher rental yields of 2.2% to 2.7% [4]. Group 4: Inventory and Sales Strategy - There is significant pressure to reduce inventory in the new housing market, with a potential supply of 101,000 units over the next three to four years and approximately 27,000 completed but unsold units [6]. - The strategy of "price for volume" is being adopted in the new housing market, with projects like SIERRASEA launching at prices below market expectations to stimulate sales [7]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Companies to watch include Swire Properties (01972), Sun Hung Kai Properties (00016), Henderson Land Development (00012), and Kerry Properties (00683) as potential beneficiaries of the market recovery [8].

Group 1 - Central Plains Real Estate reported 14 transactions in the top ten estates over the weekend, a week-on-week increase of 27.3%, marking a three-month high [1] - The best-performing estate was Jiahu Mountain Villa with 4 transactions, followed by Huangpu Garden with 3 transactions; the number of estates with zero transactions decreased to two [1] - The market is buoyed by interest rate cuts and supportive policies from the government, leading to increased buyer confidence and active participation from both buyers and investors [1] Group 2 - Hong Kong Property's research director noted that the Federal Reserve's resumption of interest rate cuts and the new policy report have contributed to a warming market atmosphere [2] - The latest data from the Rating and Valuation Department showed that the private residential price index reached 288.5 points in August, marking three consecutive months of increase, indicating a gradual recovery in market confidence [2] - Despite the positive trends, the supply of second-hand properties is slow to replenish, leading to a slight slowdown in transactions, although rising rents and rental yields are encouraging some investors to enter the market [2]