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绕不开的中国稀土
投资界· 2025-07-06 07:25
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the critical role of rare earth elements in the automotive industry, particularly in electric vehicles, highlighting the supply chain vulnerabilities and the geopolitical implications of rare earth dependency, especially for countries like the United States and Japan [4][6][30]. Group 1: Supply Chain Vulnerabilities - Suzuki Motors announced a production halt for its Swift model due to delays in parts procurement caused by rare earth export controls [4]. - European and American automotive suppliers are also facing production challenges, with Ford pausing production of its Explorer model [5]. - Rare earth elements are essential for various components in electric vehicles, including motors, sensors, and other electronic parts, with China controlling a significant portion of the global supply [6][30]. Group 2: Historical Context and Current Trends - The article references a past crisis in 2010 when China reduced rare earth exports to Japan, leading to a dramatic price increase for rare earth oxides [7]. - Despite efforts by the U.S. and Japan to reduce dependency on Chinese rare earths over the past decade, the current situation mirrors past crises, with estimates suggesting it could take another 10 years to rebuild a complete supply chain [8]. - The demand for rare earths has surged with the rise of electric vehicles, with each vehicle typically using 1.5 to 3 kg of rare earth materials [21]. Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The U.S. once dominated rare earth production but has since lost its competitive edge, with China now accounting for 92% of global rare earth refining capacity [30]. - The processing of rare earths is more complex than extraction, with significant barriers in refining and purifying these materials, which are crucial for high-performance applications [27][28]. - Recent consolidations in China's rare earth industry have enhanced its scale and bargaining power, making it challenging for foreign companies to compete [34]. Group 4: Technological Developments and Alternatives - Tesla has been actively working to reduce its reliance on rare earths in its electric motors, aiming to develop a motor that does not use rare earth materials [39]. - The company has successfully reduced the amount of rare earth used in its Model 3 by 25% from 2017 to 2022 [40]. - Alternatives to rare earth magnets, such as ferrite magnets, exist but do not match the performance of neodymium-iron-boron magnets [45]. Group 5: Global Production Landscape - China produces over 300,000 tons of neodymium-iron-boron magnets annually, with most of this production consumed by the domestic electric vehicle market [50]. - Japan's domestic production of neodymium-iron-boron magnets is around 4,500 tons, with a self-sufficiency rate of 60%, but it still relies on Chinese raw materials [50]. - The article emphasizes the importance of the triangular relationship between rare earth mining, refining, and the electric vehicle industry, which has solidified China's position as both a producer and consumer of rare earths [49].