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中国神华(601088):成本控制彰显龙头盈利韧性,稳健回报价值凸显
Changjiang Securities· 2025-10-28 09:16
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [8]. Core Insights - The company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 39.052 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10.0% (restated). In Q3 2025, the net profit was 14.411 billion yuan, down 6.2% year-on-year but up 13.5% quarter-on-quarter. Overall, the increase in sales and decrease in costs offset the impact of falling prices, indicating strong profitability resilience for the leading company [2][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Coal Sector - Production and sales showed significant recovery in Q3 2025. The company achieved a coal production and sales volume of 25,090 and 24,870 million tons respectively for the first three quarters, down 0.4% and 1.4% year-on-year. In Q3 2025, production and sales volumes were 8,550 and 8,680 million tons, up 2.3% and 2.7% year-on-year, and up 3.1% and 4.1% quarter-on-quarter [13]. - The average selling price of self-produced coal for the first three quarters was 470 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan/ton (10.6% year-on-year). In Q3 2025, the selling price was 455 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton (12.9% year-on-year) [13]. - The cost of self-produced coal decreased significantly due to lower safety production fees, maintenance costs, and labor costs. The cost for the first three quarters was 284 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (5.7% year-on-year), while in Q3 it was 278 yuan/ton, down 6.2 yuan/ton (2.2% year-on-year) [13]. - The gross profit per ton of self-produced coal for the first three quarters was 187 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton year-on-year. In Q3, it was 177 yuan/ton, down 61 yuan/ton (26% year-on-year) [13]. Power Sector - The company saw an increase in electricity generation and sales in Q3 2025. The total electricity sales for the first three quarters were 1,531 billion kWh, down 89 billion kWh year-on-year. In Q3, the sales volume was 602 billion kWh, down 15 billion kWh year-on-year but up 147 billion kWh quarter-on-quarter [13]. - The average selling price of electricity for the first three quarters was 0.426 yuan/kWh, down 0.017 yuan/kWh year-on-year. In Q3, it was 0.409 yuan/kWh, down 0.02 yuan/kWh year-on-year [13]. - The cost of electricity decreased more significantly than the selling price, leading to improved profitability in the power business. The gross profit per kWh improved by 0.01 yuan/kWh for the first three quarters and by 0.03 yuan/kWh in Q3 year-on-year [13]. Dividend and Valuation - The company is characterized by its high dividend yield, with expected earnings of approximately 51.2 billion, 54.6 billion, and 55.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The corresponding PE ratios are projected to be 16.5x, 15.5x, and 15.2x. The dividend yield for 2025, based on a 77% payout ratio, is approximately 4.7% [13].