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高盛2025影响全球宏观经济的四大核心主题:全球经济真要变天了?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-30 02:53
完整报告获取:三个皮匠报告 2025年12月15日,高盛全球宏观研究团队发布了《2025:四大主题图解》年终特别报告,共49页。这份 报告通过大量图表和专家访谈,系统梳理了2025年影响全球经济走向的四大核心主题,堪称对未来一年 世界格局的"预警地图"。 主题一:关税浪潮与贸易震荡 主题二:AI狂欢与稳定币崛起 主题三:机构信誉遭遇"信任危机" ⚠️ 主题四:地缘裂痕与技术争霸 ⚔️ 市场现状:随着特朗普再次上任,美国贸易政策急剧转向,大幅提升关税,引发全球贸易关系紧 张和多轮谈判拉锯。 核心重点: 政策剧变:美国有效关税税率飙升,频繁对多国加征关税。 不确定性激增:贸易政策不确定性指数达到历史高位,企业决策难度加大。 衰退隐忧:历史表明,大规模贸易冲突常伴随经济衰退,市场担忧情绪蔓延。 各方态度:专家普遍认为,政策不确定性本身带来的伤害可能比关税规模更大,增加了经济预测 和商业规划的难度。 市场现状:AI投资热潮持续,企业应用加速,但泡沫担忧加剧;同时,稳定币因《GENIUS法 案》获得法律框架,迎来发展契机。 核心重点: AI投资火热:半导体、云计算等AI基础设施投资强劲,巨头资本开支巨大。 泡沫之争:" ...
稳定币合法化后有哪些发展路径
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-15 01:52
Core Viewpoint - The legitimacy of stablecoins does not equate to their universal acceptance in payment scenarios, as they serve merely as intermediaries for currency payments and are not legal tender [2][3]. Regulatory Environment - Stablecoins have been circulating in markets prior to the enactment of related regulations in the US, Hong Kong, and the EU, and their legal status may change post-regulation [3]. - The introduction of regulations aims to address the risks associated with stablecoins while recognizing their beneficial roles in the economy [3]. Application Scenarios - Stablecoins are not universally applicable; their use is limited to specific scenarios where legal tender is inconvenient or unavailable [9][11]. - Current primary use cases for stablecoins include virtual world payments, cross-border transactions to evade sanctions, and as a hedge against local currency instability [9][10]. Market Dynamics - The market for stablecoins is expected to shift significantly post-legalization, with a focus on mainstream payment scenarios such as retail, domestic, and cross-border trade [11]. - Retail payment scenarios may include large merchants issuing their own stablecoins, but widespread acceptance across different merchants is unlikely [12][13]. Technological Integration - The integration of blockchain technology in financial transactions is essential, but stablecoins may not be the optimal solution for all payment needs [19][20]. - The potential for tokenized financial instruments, such as bills of exchange, may offer more advantages than stablecoins in certain contexts [20]. Future Trends - Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) are expected to outperform stablecoins in similar regulatory environments due to their status as legal tender [21]. - The future of stablecoins will depend on the evolution of transaction models, regulatory approaches, and technological advancements [21].