Summary of Robotaxi Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The Robotaxi industry is showing a stable and positive trend, with major companies and manufacturers entering the market. The next two to three years are expected to be critical for achieving breakeven in certain regions, supported by collaborations from companies like CATL and Ant Group [1][4]. Key Insights - **Initial Performance**: The initial operation of Tesla's Robotaxi, launched on June 22, 2025, is at a primary stage, with around 20 vehicles showing performance comparable to earlier models from companies like Pony.ai. Issues such as wrong lane entries and sudden maneuvers were reported, indicating that the technology is still developing [2][10]. - **Chip Transition**: The Robotaxi industry is transitioning from NVIDIA's Orin X chips to domestic Horizon Journey 6 chips. This shift aims to break monopolies, reduce costs, and mitigate supply risks. Both chip types are expected to coexist, with a significant increase in the adoption of Horizon chips [1][5]. - **Algorithm Training**: Companies like Pony.ai and Baidu Apollo are adopting large-scale model training for algorithm development, moving towards end-to-end training methods. However, a multi-segment approach remains the optimal solution for Robotaxi in the short term [1][7]. Financial Projections - **Domestic Breakeven**: In specific operational conditions (18 rides per day, average ride distance of 5 km, no driver in the vehicle, and a safety officer to vehicle ratio of 1:5), domestic Robotaxi is expected to achieve breakeven by 2026, excluding vehicle depreciation costs [1][10]. - **International Comparison**: The profitability model for overseas Robotaxi is superior to that of domestic operations, with single-vehicle revenue being 2 to 8 times higher in developed regions like Dubai and Switzerland. Breakeven, including vehicle depreciation, is anticipated by 2026, with profitability starting in 2027 [3][14]. Industry Dynamics - **Value Chain**: The value in the Robotaxi industry is expected to concentrate on the operational end and algorithm companies, with operational platforms controlling traffic entry and algorithm companies holding core technologies. Manufacturers are more focused on production [3][21]. - **Collaboration Trends**: Recent collaborations among major players, such as Alibaba with Hello and Didi with GAC, indicate a maturing market. The next two years are crucial for the industry's growth, with expectations of a prosperous market supported by technological advancements and relaxed regulations [4][21]. Cost Structure and Future Potential - **Cost Reduction**: The BOM cost for Robotaxi is projected to be under 250,000 RMB by 2025, with significant potential for cost reduction in sensor and chip components as production scales up. The cost of Horizon chips is expected to drop from over $150 to below $100 per unit [25][26]. - **Operational Efficiency**: Current operational vehicle density is low, affecting ride efficiency. Companies are limiting fleet sizes to control losses, with each Robotaxi currently losing about 100 RMB per day. The focus is on achieving breakeven before expanding fleet sizes [9][10]. Safety and Regulation - **Safety Metrics**: The annual accident rate for Robotaxi is comparable to traditional taxis, with a low frequency of incidents reported. However, the limited number of vehicles makes precise comparisons challenging [23]. - **Regulatory Compliance**: Tesla's Robotaxi has faced challenges in adhering to traffic regulations, with a high number of violations reported. The transition to a more compliant operational model is expected to take time [8][10]. Conclusion The Robotaxi industry is at a pivotal moment, with technological advancements, strategic collaborations, and evolving financial models shaping its future. The next few years will be critical for achieving profitability and expanding operational capabilities.