Core Viewpoint - The company is expected to experience a revenue increase of 6.5% YoY in FY25E, reaching RMB 18.2 billion, with the residential segment remaining flat and the commercial segment growing significantly [1] Revenue Forecast - FY25E revenue for the residential segment is projected to be flat at +1.3% YoY, while the commercial segment is expected to grow by 13.8% YoY, driven by a slowdown in shopping mall revenue growth to 18% due to a high base effect [1][2] - The shopping mall business is anticipated to see retail sales growth in the range of 20-25%, with 14 luxury malls outperforming due to new consumption formats [2] Profitability Expectations - Core net profit (NP) is forecasted to rise by 10.8% YoY to RMB 3.9 billion in FY25E, supported by stable gross profit (GP) margins in basic property management (PM) and improved GP margins in shopping malls [1] - The GP contribution from the shopping mall business is expected to reach 60% in FY25E, enhancing the overall GP contribution of the commercial operations segment to above 70% [2] Payout Ratio - A 100% payout ratio is anticipated, consisting of 60% ordinary and 40% special dividends, due to the absence of large-scale capital deployment plans and the tendency of firms to maintain higher payout ratios when results are at or below guidance [4] Third-Party Expansion - The company has secured 11 projects by the end of November, surpassing the full-year target of 10, and has completed the target of 14 new openings [2][3]

Core Insights - The report highlights the expansion of the top 50 property service companies in China, with a total new contract area of approximately 52.16 million square meters in November 2025, indicating a competitive landscape among leading firms [1] - The overall third-party expansion scale decreased by 24.73% compared to October, with a total of 4,735 million square meters added [1] - The leading sectors for third-party expansion were residential (27.6%), schools (22.9%), and offices (18.5%) [12][15] Group 1: New Contract Areas - The top 50 companies added a total of approximately 52.16 million square meters in new contract areas, with the top 10 companies contributing 30.83 million square meters, accounting for 59.08% of the total [1] - China Resources Vientiane Life had the highest new contract area in November, reaching 4.49 million square meters [1] - The threshold for the top 10 companies' expansion scale slightly decreased from 1.68 million square meters in October to 1.31 million square meters in November [1] Group 2: Project Expansion and Performance - In November, the total new third-party expansion scale was 4,736 million square meters, with 4 companies expanding between 3 million to 5 million square meters, representing 28.3% of the total [12] - The top three companies in terms of new project expansion were China Resources Vientiane Life, Poly Property, and Shimao Services, with expansion areas of 352 million square meters, 340 million square meters, and 336 million square meters, respectively [12][15] - The report indicates a growing trend among property companies to diversify into non-residential sectors, seeking new profit growth points [15] Group 3: City Service Projects - The top city service project in November was the Fuding City Urban Sanitation Integration Project, contracted by Country Garden Services for approximately 139.06 million yuan, with a service period of 3 years [20] - The total contract amount for the top 10 city service projects reached 480 million yuan, accounting for about 93.79% of the overall city service project contracts [20] - The report lists various city service projects across different provinces, highlighting the competitive landscape in urban management services [20] Group 4: Associated Area Analysis - The top five companies in terms of newly contracted associated areas were Poly Property, Wanwu Cloud, China Overseas Property, China Resources Vientiane Life, and China Railway Construction Property, indicating strong area conversion capabilities [23] - The total scale of newly contracted associated areas for the top 50 companies was 19.64 million square meters, showing a significant increase of 70.1% compared to October [23] - Poly Property led with 1.84 million square meters in associated area contracts, demonstrating its strong market position [23]