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又一次逼近新高,这次能冲过去吗?
北证三板研习社· 2025-05-15 13:29
Core Viewpoint - The North Exchange's recent performance indicates a potential breakthrough above the 1500-point mark, driven by significant trading volumes during key index movements [1][9][14] Trading Volume Analysis - Historical peaks of the North Exchange 50 Index were accompanied by high trading volumes, with notable instances including a record of 303 billion on November 27, 2023, and 332 billion on October 8, 2024 [1][3] - The index approached new highs with trading volumes of 334 billion on October 18 and 454 billion on October 21, indicating strong market interest [4] - The highest closing price of 1408.9 on November 7, 2024, was supported by a trading volume of 585 billion, while the following day saw a volume of 512 billion [6] Patterns in Trading Volume - Two key patterns were identified: 1. Breaking historical highs requires a corresponding increase in trading volume, although it does not need to exceed previous records [9] 2. Near historical highs, achieving 70-80% of the volume from the last peak is often sufficient for further upward movement [9][12] Recent Trading Dynamics - Recent trading volumes during upward movements have shown a consistent pattern of being 70-80% of previous peak volumes, suggesting potential challenges in breaking new highs [12][14] - The North Exchange 50 Index has experienced consecutive trading volumes that are significantly lower than required for a sustained breakout, indicating a possible decline in momentum [14] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The analysis suggests that without substantial new positive catalysts, the North Exchange may struggle to maintain upward momentum and break new highs, as current trading volumes reflect a cautious market sentiment [14]