刚才看到一条 18:30:15 外交部提醒中国公民撤离伊朗的提醒，建议中国公民暂勿前往伊朗，有点风声鹤唳大盘走了个滑滑梯 + 美股盘前也小小下跌以示尊重。翻了一下历史情况刻舟求剑，在去年 2025 年 6 月 17 日外交部发布过一次同样的声明，当时 BTC 从 104k 下跌到了 100k，四五天后和谈之后才停止下跌结合 $NVDA 昨天财报后不妙的走势 + DeepSeek V4 即将发布的预期，这两天科技股持仓估计不太舒服的。存储作为英伟达上游大概率也会被波及个人是觉得宏观环境难做的时候可以多休息，抓简单做的时间做比较舒服 ...

（注：本文为原创分析，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。数据支持：长江有色金属网 www.ccmn.cn电话： 0592-5668838） ccmn铅市分析：今日国内现货铅价小跌，春节后首个交易日，沪铅价格呈现窄幅震荡格局，全天波动 幅度有限，市场多空力量处于高度均衡状态。这一走势主要受国内外宏观环境的共同影响。海外市场方 面，隔夜美股三大指数全线重挫，避险情绪显著升温，导致资金从工业金属等风险资产中流出；同时美 元指数维持横盘整理，未能为市场提供明确方向指引。国内方面，当日公布的LPR报价维持不变，货币 政策保持稳健中性，使得市场对短期宽松政策的预期降温。整体来看，海外风险偏好回落与国内"稳字 当头"的政策定调相互交织，宏观层面呈现多空因素弱平衡的态势，这直接决定了铅价在节后首日震荡 收平的表现。 春节后铅市场呈现典型的"供应恢复快于需求复苏"的格局。供应端，原生与再生铅冶炼企业复产顺畅， 原料供应平稳，市场流通货源充足。然而，需求端恢复迟缓，下游铅酸蓄电池企业复工节奏偏慢，订单 释放有限，目前仍以消化节前库存为主，仅维持刚需采购。整体市场处于供需双弱、小幅累库的状态， 难以支撑价格形成趋势性突破。从产业链看，上游 ...

Group 1 - The company stated that its stock price in the secondary market is influenced by macroeconomic conditions, industry policies, and investor risk preferences [2] - The company's production and operational activities are normal, and it will focus on its core responsibilities to enhance management and drive high-quality development [2]

Financial Performance - The latest financial report for CarMax (KMX.US) was released on December 18, 2025, with a consensus expectation of total revenue at $5.711 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 5.48% [1] - The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) expectation was $0.39, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 36.10% [1] - The report highlighted weak retail demand, pressure from financing costs, and resilience in the wholesale channel [1] Stock Performance - In January 2026, CarMax's stock price experienced significant fluctuations, with a notable increase of 5.12% on January 6, reaching $41.30, and a further rise of 1.37% on January 9, closing at $45.23, despite a 35.35% decrease in trading volume on that day [2] - These stock movements reflect market reactions to retail used car transaction volumes and the macroeconomic environment [2] - As of February 12, 2026, there were no major upcoming events disclosed regarding CarMax, such as new financial report schedules or company actions, with regular events like quarterly earnings releases subject to official announcements [2]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Influences - The U.S. Treasury Secretary highlighted that foreign capital inflows into U.S. Treasury bonds and stock markets may boost market liquidity sentiment [1] - China's policy focus on promoting effective investment and the central bank's maintenance of a loose monetary policy could indirectly affect global bank stock risk appetite [1] - Eurozone inflation dropped to 1.7% and weak wage data from Japan indicate a divergence in global economic growth, potentially increasing volatility in bank stocks [1] Group 2: Stock Performance - First Guaranty Bank's stock price increased by 1.66% over the past week, closing at $9.17 on February 11, but experienced a single-day decline of 0.33% [2] - The stock had a trading range of 1.74% with low trading volume, averaging about $0.75 million per day and a turnover rate of 0.01% [2] - The bank's price-to-book ratio stands at 0.75, while the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is negative at -2.20, indicating pressure on profitability [2] - The broader U.S. bank sector saw a slight decline of 0.33%, with the individual stock performing slightly better than the sector, influenced by a 0.54% rise in the Nasdaq index over the past five days [2]

Group 1 - The Chief Investment Officer of Sygnum Bank, Fabian Dori, believes that the macroeconomic environment in early 2026 may be favorable for Bitcoin due to improving economic data and the gradual easing of panic in the crypto market by the end of 2025 [1] - Historical experience suggests that changes in fundamental factors, market sentiment, and regulatory factors could support Bitcoin's performance over the next 6 to 9 months, although these positive factors may not all materialize simultaneously [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic aggregate in Q3 exceeded expectations, but growth momentum showed signs of marginal slowdown. The consumer confidence index in December dropped to 89.1, lower than the market expectation of 91.0. The Fed is likely to adopt a more cautious and accommodative approach. Factory orders in the manufacturing sector recovered moderately, and the differentiation in high - end manufacturing deepened [6] - **Domestic Macro**: In November, demand recovery was slow, with consumption and investment under pressure, and the year - on - year decline in industrial profits widened. However, the cumulative profits from January to November still showed a slight positive growth, indicating the economy is "stabilizing at a low level" with policy support. There are industry differentiations, with the equipment manufacturing industry leading the growth (+7.2%, some industries with high growth), the raw material manufacturing industry accelerating (+22.1%), the consumer goods industry turning positive, and the automobile industry slightly weakening (-0.3%). Profit improvement mainly relies on supply contraction and price recovery, and may be constrained in the future if demand fails to pick up and the base increases [6] - **Asset Views**: The macro environment is still favorable for the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors, but short - term risks need to be watched out for. In the precious metals sector, the risk of volatility in silver increases after a sharp rise, and further corrections are possible. In the non - ferrous metals sector, there are opportunities to buy on dips for commodities with more supply disruptions, such as copper, aluminum, and tin. Attention should also be paid to lithium carbonate with good supply - demand performance. For the domestic equity sector, a defensive strategy is recommended at the end of the year and during the policy window period [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market - **Stock Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures all had negative daily and weekly fluctuations, but different monthly, quarterly, and annual changes. For example, the CSI 300 futures had a daily decline of 0.61%, a weekly decline of 0.61%, a monthly increase of 3.08%, a quarterly decline of 0.17%, and an annual increase of 17.58% [2] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Most Treasury bond futures had negative daily and weekly fluctuations. For example, the 2 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily decline of 0.07%, a weekly decline of 0.07%, etc [2] - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was flat, and different currency pairs had various changes. For example, the euro - US dollar exchange rate had no change in pips, and the US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate was flat daily but had other period - specific changes [2] - **Interest Rates**: Various interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate, 10Y Chinese Treasury bond yield, and 10Y US Treasury bond yield had different fluctuations [2] 3.2 Hot Industries - Different industries in the CITIC industry index had different price changes. The comprehensive finance, national defense and military industry, and petroleum and petrochemical industries had positive daily and weekly changes, while the pharmaceutical, food and beverage, and power equipment and new energy industries had negative daily and weekly changes [2] 3.3 Overseas Commodities - **Energy**: NYMEX WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 2.52%, while ICE Brent crude oil had a daily decline of 2.44%. NYMEX natural gas had a daily increase of 3.00%, and ICE UK natural gas was flat [2] - **Precious Metals**: COMEX gold and silver had significant increases, with COMEX gold having an annual increase of 72.85% and COMEX silver having a large annual increase [2] - **Non - Ferrous Metals**: LME copper, zinc, lead, etc. showed different price trends. LME copper had a flat daily price but positive changes over other periods [2] - **Agricultural Products**: CBOT soybeans, wheat, and other agricultural products had different price fluctuations. For example, CBOT soybeans had a daily decline of 0.37% [2] 3.4 Domestic Main Commodities - Different domestic commodities such as shipping (container shipping to Europe), precious metals (gold and silver), non - ferrous metals, black building materials, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products had various daily, weekly, monthly, and annual price changes. For example, container shipping to Europe had a daily decline of 0.09%, and gold had a daily decline of 0.90% [3] 3.5 Viewpoints Summary - **Financial**: The stock market is waiting for a main line, and the bond market has disturbing factors. Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options to fluctuate, and Treasury bond futures to fluctuate [7] - **Precious Metals**: They are expected to rise in a volatile manner, with silver having greater elasticity [7] - **Shipping**: Attention should be paid to the resumption of voyages in the far - month contracts of container shipping to Europe [7] - **Black Building Materials**: The real - world pressure exists, and the disk performance is under pressure, with most varieties expected to fluctuate [7] - **Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Wait for the macro - level to become clearer, with basic metals in a state of shock and consolidation [7] - **Energy and Chemicals**: The pattern of strong aromatics and weak olefins remains unchanged, and different chemical varieties have different short - term outlooks, mostly in a state of shock [9] - **Agriculture**: The market is worried about the supply, with different agricultural products having different short - term trends, such as soybean meal leading the near - month contracts to rise [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the futures price of casting aluminum alloy is experiencing an upward trend, with the main contract closing at 21,390 yuan, an increase of 130 yuan or 0.61% [1] - The trading volume for the day reached 12,844 lots, an increase of 6,338 lots, while the open interest decreased by 6,516 lots to 7,203 lots [1] - The spot prices for various casting aluminum alloys have also risen, with A356.2 averaging 23,600 yuan per ton, A380 at 23,200 yuan per ton, ADC12 at 21,900 yuan per ton, ZL102 at 23,000 yuan per ton, and ZLD104 at 22,900 yuan per ton, all showing increases of 100 to 200 yuan [1] Group 2 - The macroeconomic environment is optimistic, with expectations of continued loose monetary policy following the potential announcement of a new Federal Reserve chair by Trump in early January [2] - The dollar index has fallen below 98, which has positively impacted the metal market, while the strong appreciation of the RMB has further boosted market sentiment [2] - The casting aluminum industry is experiencing tight supply of scrap aluminum, which, along with tax adjustments, is putting upward pressure on costs, while demand remains resilient with increased raw material stocking by recycled aluminum enterprises [2] Group 3 - Overall, the casting aluminum supply and demand fundamentals are healthy, and prices are expected to maintain a high-level oscillation in the short term [3]

Group 1 - The domestic precious metals market showed a strong performance, with palladium futures experiencing a price increase of 2.42%, reaching a high of 576.60 CNY per gram [1] - Analysts suggest that the palladium market is currently in a volatile upward trend, influenced by a weak US dollar and changes in trading policies [2] - The demand for palladium is primarily driven by the automotive sector, but the surge in China's new energy vehicle penetration is suppressing the demand growth for palladium [2] Group 2 - Institutions highlight that the supply-demand dynamics for platinum are stronger than for palladium, indicating a more significant supply gap for platinum [2] - The overall demand growth for palladium is limited, and its price movements are expected to be more influenced by macroeconomic conditions and the price trends of platinum [2] - Recommendations include holding long positions in palladium futures while setting profit-taking limits, as the market may continue to experience significant fluctuations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is entering 2026 with a historical upward trend, supported by structural demand rather than speculative trading, despite low market participation [2][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - As of December 25, 2025, spot gold is trading around $4,479.42 per ounce, showing a slight decline of 0.11% with a daily high of $4,525.70 and a low of $4,448.32, indicating a short-term bearish sentiment [1]. - Major banks forecast gold prices to range between $4,500 and $4,700, with potential to reach $5,000 if macroeconomic conditions persist [1]. Group 2: Structural Demand - The core drivers for gold price increases in 2024-2025 are rooted in policy uncertainties, with the U.S. facing high fiscal spending, persistent inflation pressures, and declining real yields [2]. - Central banks are a crucial support for the structural gold market, maintaining over half of their reserves in gold, while countries like Japan hold significantly less, indicating substantial reallocation potential [3]. - The demand from central banks is characterized as structural rather than cyclical, with consistent purchasing power despite high prices [3]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold price failed to break through $4,502, indicating strong resistance at this level, with key support levels at $4,467 and $4,454 [4]. - The market is expected to continue a volatile pattern, with potential for upward movement if resistance levels are breached [4].