今日周五（10月10日）亚盘时段，黄金期货目前交投于918附近，截至发稿，黄金期货暂报904.88元/ 克，跌幅0.90%，最高触及921.40元/克，最低下探898.06元/克。目前来看，黄金期货短线偏向看跌走 势。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【要闻速递】 在贵金属市场历经较长一段时间的支撑后，地缘政治紧张局势如今暂时有所缓和。值得关注的是，以色 列与哈马斯成功达成协议，计划释放所有在加沙地带被扣押的人员，这一举措被视为朝着结束双方持续 两年之久的冲突迈出的关键一步。该协议是在美、埃、卡、土四方的共同斡旋下，于埃及沙姆沙伊赫通 过多轮间接协商最终敲定的。根据协议条款，以色列方面将释放一定数量的巴勒斯坦囚犯，同时增加对 加沙地区的人道主义援助物资供给，并有序将军队撤离至加沙边境的缓冲区域。此消息一经传出，市场 的避险情绪显著减弱，进而给金银价格带来了短期的下行压力。 与此同时，外部宏观环境也对贵金属走势形成了不利影响。美元指数强势攀升至九周以来的最高点位， 而美国10年期国债收益率则稳定保持在4.13%附近。 【最新黄金期货行情解析】 今日沪金期货需重点关注的关键阻力位区间为920元/克至940元/克 ...

Core Viewpoint - G-III Apparel Group reported better-than-expected earnings for Q2 but significantly lowered its full-year outlook, indicating weaker future earnings and sales despite surpassing Q2 profit and revenue estimates [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company posted adjusted earnings per share of 25 cents for Q2, exceeding the analyst consensus estimate of 9 cents [1]. - Quarterly sales reached $613.266 million, a 5% decrease year-over-year, but still surpassed the expected $571.312 million [1]. Revised Outlook - G-III Apparel Group revised its fiscal 2026 adjusted EPS outlook to $2.55–$2.75, down from $4.15–$4.25 and below the previous estimate of $2.90 [2]. - The fiscal 2026 sales forecast was reduced to $3.02 billion from $3.14 billion, slightly below the Street consensus of $3.131 billion [2]. Future Projections - The company anticipates third-quarter adjusted EPS in the range of $1.43–$1.63, missing the analyst estimate of $1.88 [2]. - Expected sales for the third quarter are projected at $1.01 billion, below the consensus of $1.10 billion [2]. Management Commentary - Morris Goldfarb, Chairman and CEO, indicated that the updated fiscal 2026 guidance reflects the current macro environment, cautious outlook from retail partners, and the impact of tariffs on financial performance [3]. Stock Performance - Following the earnings announcement, G-III Apparel shares fell by 5.8%, trading at $26.02 [3]. Analyst Ratings - Keybanc analyst maintained an Overweight rating and raised the price target from $30 to $33 [5]. - Telsey Advisory Group maintained a Market Perform rating and increased the price target from $27 to $30 [5]. - Barclays maintained an Underweight rating while raising the price target from $18 to $21 [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document about the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The macro - environment is generally favorable for commodities. Overseas, Powell's dovish signal strengthens the market's interest - rate cut expectation, and the July S&P Global Manufacturing PMI exceeds expectations. Domestically, although the July domestic demand data is still weak, the market's pessimistic expectation of deflation has changed. However, the fundamentals of both raw materials and finished products are weakening, which suppresses the upward movement of the market. Overall, the steel market is expected to show a range - bound pattern [3]. - The supply of iron ore first increases and then stabilizes. The high demand for hot metal is maintained, but the downstream terminal demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term supply of coking coal is relatively loose, and the premium retracement supports the iron ore price. In the short term, the iron ore price is expected to be mainly range - bound [18]. - The details of the "anti - involution" policy need time to be introduced, and the macro - sentiment may fluctuate. The far - month production of coking coal may be restricted by over - production inspections and the 276 - working - day policy. The current main contract has a large open interest, and the long - short game is intense. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished product demand in the peak season, the production changes of coking coal mines, and the implementation effect of macro - policies [30]. - Driven by profit, the production of ferroalloys is gradually increasing, reaching a high level in the same period of the past five years, with great supply pressure. With the production restrictions on some steel mills before the parade and no obvious improvement in demand, the ferroalloy inventory may change from destocking to stocking. The price of ferroalloys is affected by the price of coking coal, and in the long - term, the valuation trend of coking coal is upward, but the short - term fluctuation is intense [48]. - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and normal maintenance continues. The demand for soda ash is expected to be weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory continues to reach a new high. The cost of raw salt and coal has increased. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand for soda ash remains unchanged [57]. - The near - end trading of glass returns to the industry. After Hubei reduces the price, the production and sales situation improves. The policy expectation fluctuates, and the market sentiment also fluctuates. The supply of glass is stable, and the cumulative apparent demand from January to August is estimated to decline by 7%. The mid - stream inventory is at a high level, and the spot negative feedback continues. Attention should be paid to policy guidance and short - term sentiment changes [83]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Macro and Fundamental Analysis**: Overseas macro - drivers are upward, and domestic deflation pessimism has changed. However, steel has a high - supply pressure with super - seasonal inventory accumulation. Raw material fundamentals are weakening, but the overall inventory of finished products is not high, and the total demand is acceptable. The market is expected to be range - bound [3]. - **Price Data**: On August 25, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3224, 3261, and 3138 yuan/ton respectively; the closing prices of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3377, 3388, and 3389 yuan/ton respectively [4]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The rebar summary price in China on August 25, 2025, was 3354 yuan/ton, and the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 86 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3430 yuan/ton, and the 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 53 yuan/ton [8]. Iron Ore - **Supply - Demand and Price Outlook**: Supply first increases and then stabilizes, demand for hot metal is high but terminal demand is weak with inventory accumulation. Coking coal supply supports the price. In the short term, the price is expected to be range - bound [18]. - **Price Data**: On August 25, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 787, 763, and 806.5 yuan/ton respectively. The price of Rizhao PB powder was 780 yuan/ton [19]. - **Fundamental Data**: On August 22, 2025, the daily average hot - metal output was 240.75 tons, the 45 - port port clearance volume was 325.74 tons, and the 45 - port inventory was 13845.2 tons [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: The "anti - involution" policy details are pending, and the macro - sentiment may fluctuate. The far - month production of coking coal may be restricted. The main contract has a large open interest, and the long - short game is intense. Attention should be paid to multiple factors [30]. - **Price and Basis Data**: On August 25, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost in Tangshan (Meng 5) was 1128 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis was - 88 yuan/ton. The coke warehouse - receipt cost in Rizhao Port (wet - quenched) was 1616 yuan/ton, and the main - contract basis was - 120.4 yuan/ton [35]. - **Spot Price and Profit**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal was 1470 yuan/ton, and the immediate coking profit was 397 yuan/ton [36]. Ferroalloys - **Market Situation**: Driven by profit, production is increasing, with high supply pressure. With production restrictions on steel mills and no obvious demand improvement, inventory may change from destocking to stocking. The price is affected by coking coal [48]. - **Data of Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese**: On August 25, 2025, the ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia was 8 yuan/ton, and the ferromanganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 268 yuan/ton [49][51]. Soda Ash - **Market Analysis**: Supply is expected to remain high, demand is weak, and the upper - middle stream inventory is at a new high. The cost of raw salt and coal has increased, and the pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [57]. - **Price Data**: On August 25, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1393 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread was 167 yuan/ton [58]. - **Spot Price**: The heavy - soda market price in North China was 1350 yuan/ton, and the heavy - soda to light - soda price difference was 100 yuan/ton [62]. Glass - **Market Analysis**: The near - end trading returns to the industry. After Hubei reduces the price, production and sales improve. Policy expectations and market sentiment fluctuate. Supply is stable, and the cumulative apparent demand from January to August is estimated to decline by 7%. The mid - stream inventory is high, and the spot negative feedback continues [83]. - **Price and Month - Spread Data**: On August 25, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1280 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 month spread was 281 yuan/ton [84]. - **Production and Sales Data**: On August 24, 2025, the production and sales rate in Shahe was 110%, and in Hubei was 131% [85].

Group 1 - Nickel prices are experiencing a sideways trend, with the main contract down by 0.24% to 122,340 yuan/ton, influenced by a moderate overall inflation in the US and a 95% probability of interest rate cuts in September [1] - The nickel ore market remains stable, with strong pricing sentiment from Philippine mines, while Indonesian primary nickel output remains high, leading to a continued decline in nickel ore prices, although they are still at relatively high levels [1] - Demand from the downstream nickel iron sector is improving, with steel mills reducing losses, which has slightly eased the pressure on raw material pricing [1] Group 2 - The overall supply of nickel products is high, with signs of production slowdown in Indonesian smelters, but the supply remains elevated [2] - Domestic demand for nickel has significantly increased in the first half of the year, yet the supply-demand balance remains in surplus, indicating limited contradictions in nickel's supply and demand [2] - Short-term focus should be on changes in the macroeconomic environment, while medium-term attention should be on the potential tightening of Indonesian nickel ore supply [2]

来源：张志专栏 隔夜消息面满天飞，受影响最大的要数国际油价了。 贵金属方面， 昨天有一条消息引发市场关注，据媒体报道，上海期货交易所相关仓库的黄金库存已跃升至历史新高，超过36吨金条/块已注册用于期货合约交 割，这一数量在过去一个月内几乎翻倍。库存激增主要源于期货需求强劲推动的套利交易热潮。 美国总统TRUMP称，特使威特科夫当天和俄罗斯总统的会晤"取得了重大进展"，将在未来几天和几周内为结束俄乌战争努力，与小泽和普丁举行 峰会的可能性较大。但保留了针对俄油进一步采取惩罚性措施的可能。白宫称俄方表达了同特朗普会面的愿望。 大量黄金被注册进交割库，意味着市场上可交割的实物黄金供给增加，如果未来有大量期货合约到期交割，将增加市场短期内的实际黄金供应， 从而 抑制价格上涨 ，属于偏利空信号；但中长期黄金走势仍取决于宏观环境、利率政策与避险需求，库存变化本身并不决定黄金大趋势。 于此同时，老特还签署了一项行政命令，将印度石油关税提高一倍至50%，新的税率将于21天内生效。 他还声称对另一个购买俄石油的国家征收关税。 一方面跟卖家会谈，一方面打压买家的，这油价就直接崩了。国际原油连续第五个交易日走低。WTI原油失守64 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced the resumption of VAT on interest income from newly issued government bonds, local government bonds, and financial bonds starting from August 8, 2025, which has led to mixed reactions in the bond market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - The bond futures market showed strong performance, reflecting intense speculation among investors regarding the announcement [1]. - Analysts noted that the demand for existing bonds increased post-announcement, but expectations for a significant decline in interest rates in the short term should be tempered [1]. - The potential widening of the yield spread between new and old bonds could be around 10 basis points due to the VAT implications, although uncertainties remain [1]. Group 2: Impact on Bond Market - The resumption of VAT is expected to narrow the yield spread between credit bonds and interest rate bonds by 30 to 50 basis points, as the tax-exempt advantage of interest rate bonds diminishes [1]. - New government bonds may see an increase in issuance rates by 5 to 10 basis points to compensate for the tax burden, while the attractiveness of existing bonds may rise [1]. - Different tax rates applicable to various financial institutions could lead to differentiated investment behaviors, potentially attracting bank funds into interest rate bonds through broader fund products [1]. Group 3: Future Considerations - Post-August 8, attention will be on the auction results of newly issued government bonds and other influencing factors such as real estate policy adjustments and inflation stabilization [2]. - The macroeconomic environment and market sentiment are expected to stabilize following recent negotiations and meetings, with a focus on domestic fundamentals and liquidity changes [2]. - The weak performance of government bond futures in July was attributed to significant sell-offs triggered by rising stock and commodity markets rather than fundamental changes [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The agricultural market shows a mixed trend with various commodities experiencing different price movements and market conditions. The overall market is influenced by a combination of factors including supply - demand dynamics, weather, trade relations, and macro - economic conditions. Each commodity is expected to have its own short - to - medium - term outlook, mainly ranging from "oscillation" to "oscillation with a certain bias" [1][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1油脂 - **观点**：马棕6月库存高于预期，MPOB报告相对偏空，近期油脂或继续震荡分化 [5]. - **逻辑**：美豆类下跌，国内三大油脂震荡分化；美国对外贸易紧张，美元盘整，原油微跌；美豆长势良好，优良率66%，美国“大而美”法案提振生柴对美豆油需求，巴西将提高生柴掺混比例；国内进口大豆到港量大使豆油库存回升；MPOB报告显示马棕6月出口低于预期、库存高于预期，7 - 9月增产压力增大；国内菜油库存高位但缓慢下降，中加贸易关系不确定 [5]. 3.1.2蛋白粕 - **观点**：巴西贴水再度上涨，盘面区间下方反弹，短期区间震荡运行 [6]. - **逻辑**：国际大豆贸易升贴水有变化，中国主要采购巴西大豆支撑其升贴水上涨；美豆多空交织区间震荡；国内供应压力大但盘面受成本支撑，豆粕累库、胀库压力增大，下游补库不足，油厂开机率下降；长期看9月大豆买船加速，四季度偏慢，能繁母猪存栏预示豆粕消费刚需或稳中有增 [6]. 3.1.3玉米/淀粉 - **观点**：市场心态承压，期现窄幅震荡 [6]. - **逻辑**：期货主力合约低位震荡，现货贸易环节出货积极性提高，部分企业收购价调低；进口玉米拍卖成交率76%；24/25年进口同比下降，期末库存预计去化，但小麦和进口玉米补充供应，新季玉米成本下移，市场情绪转弱，关注库存去化和短期紧缺反弹风险；美玉米2025/26年度期末库存预计低于上月预测 [6][7]. 3.1.4生猪 - **观点**：消费走货一般，生猪现货回调，短期猪价由弱转强，中长期有供应压制风险 [8]. - **逻辑**：供应上，短期7月计划出栏量减少，散户二育心态复苏，中期下半年出栏量或增长，长期产能仍在高位，若落后产能出清将带来向好预期；需求方面，肉猪比价和肥标价差下降；库存上，降重趋势有分歧，散户有累库趋势；节奏上，短期宏观调控带来利好，集团场出栏压力部分释放，中长期供应压力仍在，需关注库存和供给侧调整 [8]. 3.1.5天然橡胶 - **观点**：资金情绪快速推涨胶价 [1][11]. - **逻辑**：受资金情绪影响，商品市场多头情绪浓厚，橡胶前期未跟涨估值偏低，且与宏观强关联，补涨合理；基本面短期无大矛盾，供给端亚洲产区雨季原料价格反弹，7、8月船货到港预计偏少；需求端部分轮胎企业开工恢复，库存积压好转，三季度或有去库交易，若宏观情绪维持，胶价易涨难跌 [1][11]. 3.1.6合成橡胶 - **观点**：盘面跟随上涨，整体维持区间震荡运行 [13]. - **逻辑**：受天胶冲高和商品市场情绪带动盘面走高，丁二烯价格本周企稳，但终端需求弱势，市场成交多为刚需，供应端压力累积，供需矛盾凸显，行情偏弱 [13]. 3.1.7棉花 - **观点**：棉价小幅波动，驱动不强，短期震荡 [13]. - **逻辑**：新棉25/26年度中国及海外主产国有增产预期，美棉面积下滑产量预计持平；需求端处于消费淡季，纺织厂开机下滑、成品累库，采购需求转弱；库存端全国商业库存同期偏低，新花上市前低库存格局难改支撑棉价，但新作增产预期抑制上方空间，关注天气变化 [13]. 3.1.8白糖 - **观点**：糖价小幅上涨，但上方高度受限，长期震荡偏弱，短期震荡 [15]. - **逻辑**：25/26榨季全球糖市预期供应宽松，主产国均有增产预期；巴西入榨量和食糖生产量同比下滑，制糖比提高但食糖高产有变数；印度季风降雨利于甘蔗生长；国内进入纯销售期，产销率高，工业库存同比下滑，但进口预计增加；巴西出口增多，供应边际压力将显现 [15]. 3.1.9纸浆 - **观点**：商品普遍大涨，纸浆跟随走高，期货走势震荡 [16]. - **逻辑**：期货跟随宏观氛围上涨，现货同步；供需数据偏弱势，欧洲港口库存走高，月度美金盘价格走低，下游纸制品产销季节性偏弱；但价格进入低位区间，金融市场走势偏暖，预计反弹继续但技术压力渐显 [16]. 3.1.10原木 - **观点**：现货下跌压力较大，盘面底部震荡，中期维持区间760 - 830运行 [17][18]. - **逻辑**：07合约交割使交割品货源流通压力大，现货有下跌压力，买卖双方成本提升；进入7 - 8月季节性淡季但需求平稳，去库缓慢，新一期外商报价提涨，整体现货处于筑底阶段；伴随交割博弈结束，市场回归基本面主导，关注基差变化 [17][18]. 3.2品种数据监测 - The report lists various commodities such as oils and fats, protein meals, corn, starch, etc., but no specific data monitoring details are provided in the given text. 3.3评级标准 - The report provides a rating standard for the expected price movement of commodities over the next 2 - 12 weeks, including "stronger," "oscillating with an upward bias," "oscillating," "oscillating with a downward bias," and "weaker," with the standard deviation defined as "1 - time standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation / current price" [168].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report provides trend forecasts for various futures products, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc., with different products showing trends such as rising, falling, and fluctuating [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: Non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][6][9]. - **Silver**: Continued to rise, with a trend strength of 1 [2][6][9]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Global inventories increased, and prices fluctuated, with a trend strength of 0 [2][11][13]. - **Zinc**: Traded sideways, with a trend strength of 0 [2][14]. - **Lead**: Supported by short - term consumption peak season expectations, with a trend strength of 1 [2][16][17]. - **Tin**: Driven by the macro - environment, with a trend strength of 0 [2][19][22]. - **Nickel**: Upside potential was limited, and prices were under pressure at low levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][23]. - **Stainless Steel**: Inventories were slightly digested, and prices recovered but with limited elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][24][29]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices were under pressure, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][30][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Adopt a strategy of shorting at high prices, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to policy changes, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][34][36]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations were volatile, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][37]. - **Rebar**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][39][42]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][40][42]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Manganese Ferrosilicon**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][43][46]. - **Coke**: The first round of price increase was brewing, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Coking Coal**: Fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][48][50]. - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption recovered, and prices stabilized with fluctuations, with a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55]. - **Log**: The main contract switched, and prices fluctuated widely, with a trend strength of 0 [2][56][58]. - **Para - Xylene**: Cost support was weak, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][65]. - **PTA**: Close the long - PX short - PTA position, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][59][66]. - **MEG**: Traded in a single - sided oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][59][66]. - **Rubber**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [2][67]. Others - **Fuel Oil**: Adjusted narrowly at night, with low - level fluctuations in the market [4]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Strong in the short - term, with the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market oscillating at a high level [4]. - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The 08 contract oscillated and sorted; hold a light short position in the 10 contract [4]. - **Short - Fiber**: Traded weakly with oscillations, and demand pressure gradually emerged [4]. - **Bottle Chip**: Traded weakly with oscillations, long PR short PF [4]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Palm Oil**: Fundamental contradictions were not obvious, and prices were greatly affected by international oil prices [4]. - **Soybean Oil**: There was insufficient speculation on U.S. soybean weather, lacking driving forces [4]. - **Soybean Meal**: The U.S. soybean market was closed overnight, lacking guidance, and the Dalian soybean meal might oscillate [4]. - **Soybean No. 1**: Spot prices were stable, and the market oscillated [4]. - **Corn**: Traded in an oscillatory manner [4]. - **Sugar**: Traded in a narrow range [4]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to U.S. tariff policies and their impacts [4]. - **Egg**: It was difficult to increase the culling rate, and attention should be paid to the pre - emptive expectations [4]. - **Live Pig**: The gaming sentiment increased [4]. - **Peanut**: There was support at the bottom [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Non - farm payrolls performed better than expected [2] - Silver: Continued to soar [2] - Copper: Global inventories increased, and prices fluctuated [2] - Zinc: Traded sideways [2] - Lead: Supported by short - term consumption peak season expectations [2] - Tin: Driven up by the macro - environment [2] - Nickel: Upside elasticity was limited, and nickel prices were under pressure at low levels [2] - Stainless steel: Inventories were slightly digested, and steel prices recovered but with limited elasticity [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of Shanghai Gold 2508 was 774.88, down 0.52%, and the night - session closing price was 777.00, up 0.19%. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2508 was 8919, down 0.29%, and the night - session closing price was 8931.00, up 0.16%. The trading volume and positions of some contracts changed compared with the previous day [5]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Gold inventory remained unchanged at 18,456 kilograms, and Shanghai Silver inventory increased by 2133 kilograms to 1,340,792 kilograms [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold trend intensity was - 1, and silver trend intensity was 1 [8]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 79,730, down 1.03%, and the night - session closing price was 79720, down 0.01%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper main contract increased by 17,176 to 100,562, and the position decreased by 8,934 to 215,738 [10]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Copper inventory decreased by 1,796 tons to 22,307 tons, and LME copper inventory increased by 950 tons to 95,275 tons [10]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper trend intensity was 0 [12]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22410, up 0.38%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Zinc main contract increased by 20897 to 153571, and the position increased by 66 to 128000 [13]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Zinc futures inventory increased by 647 tons to 7246 tons, and LME zinc inventory decreased by 350 tons to 112325 tons [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc trend intensity was 0 [13]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17295, up 0.29%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Lead main contract decreased by 10116 to 24330, and the position decreased by 1206 to 51672 [15]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Lead futures inventory remained unchanged at 46439 tons, and LME lead inventory decreased by 2625 tons to 263275 tons [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead trend intensity was 1 [16]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 268,420, down 0.04%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract decreased by 16,735 to 57,264, and the position decreased by 923 to 30,442 [18][19]. - **Inventory**: Shanghai Tin inventory decreased by 6 tons to 6,882 tons, and LME tin inventory decreased by 50 tons to 2,165 tons [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin trend intensity was 0 [21]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 122,270, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,730. The trading volume and positions of related contracts changed compared with previous periods [22][23]. - **Industry News**: In March, Ontario, Canada, might stop exporting nickel to the US; in April, the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; an Indonesian nickel smelter resumed production; an Indonesian冷轧厂 planned to continue maintenance; the Philippine nickel industry welcomed the removal of the raw - ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia planned to shorten the mining quota period [23][24][25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel trend intensity was 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity was 0 [28]

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals by Guotai Junan Futures on July 4, 2025, covering copper, tin, nickel, and stainless steel [1][2] Core Views - Copper: The rise of the US dollar restricts price increases [2] - Tin: The macro - environment drives the price up [2] - Nickel: The support from the ore end is loosening, and the smelting end limits the upside potential [2] - Stainless steel: Inventory is slightly decreasing marginally, and the steel price is recovering but with limited elasticity [2] Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 80,560 with a daily increase of 0.02%, and the night - session closing price was 80,540 with a decline of - 0.02%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,952 with a decline of - 0.58% [4] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Copper futures inventory was 24,103, a decrease of 994; LME Copper inventory was 94,325, an increase of 1,075 [4] - **Spreads**: The LME copper ascension discount was 87.61, a decrease of 8.59 compared to the previous day [4] Macro and Industry News - US non - farm payrolls in June increased by 147,000, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1% [4] - Western Mining's Yulong Copper Mine Phase III project was approved, with the production scale increasing to 30 million tons/year [4] - The TC/RC negotiation result between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters in mid - 2025 was set at 0.0 US dollars/kiloton and 0.0 US cents/pound [4] Trend Intensity - Copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [6] Tin Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 268,420 with a decline of - 0.04%, and the night - session closing price was 269,130 with an increase of 0.04%. The LME Tin 3M electronic disk closed at 33,805 with an increase of 0.66% [8] - **Inventory**: Shanghai Tin futures inventory was 6,882, a decrease of 6; LME Tin inventory was 2,165, a decrease of 50 [8] - **Spreads**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 266,500, a decrease of 700 compared to the previous day [8] Macro and Industry News - The "Big Beautiful" bill passed in the US House of Representatives by a narrow margin, bringing a deficit of 3.4 trillion [9] - The US non - farm payroll report was unexpectedly strong, and the market abandoned the bet on a rate cut in July [9] Trend Intensity - Tin trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view [10] Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,790, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,710 [11] - **Spreads**: The 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 909, a decrease of 2 compared to the previous day [11] Macro and Industry News - The governor of Ontario, Canada, proposed to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [11] - The CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project in Indonesia entered the trial production stage [12] - An important nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production, and the capacity of PT QMB New Energy Materials has recovered to 70% - 80% [13][14] Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless - steel trend intensity is 0, both indicating a neutral view [16]