Core Viewpoint - The founder of Shiwa Asset, Liang Hong, publicly apologized for significant net value declines in his funds, attributing the losses to three investment misjudgments related to innovative pharmaceuticals, hardware leaders, and US stablecoin concept stocks, reflecting decisions driven by "greed" and "grand narratives" [1][4] Investment Performance Summary - Shiwa Asset's weekly report indicated that most funds experienced an estimated net value drop of around 7%, with a cumulative decline of approximately 20% from peak values [2][3] - The three main investment errors accounted for about 18% of the total decline, contributing to the overall 20% drop [3] Detailed Investment Errors - The first error involved an innovative pharmaceutical stock that initially contributed over 8 percentage points to net value growth but plummeted after a failed business development announcement, leading to a loss exceeding 4% due to delayed profit-taking [2][3] - The second error was related to a hardware leader stock, which constituted 30% of the portfolio and fell 37% due to rising storage chip prices and negative public sentiment, negatively impacting net value by over 9% [3] - The third error focused on US stablecoin concept stocks, which were heavily invested based on optimistic cryptocurrency market expectations. After a significant price drop of 60%, this investment caused a net value loss of 4-5 percentage points [3] Reflection on Investment Decisions - Liang Hong identified the root causes of the investment mistakes as "greed" and decisions driven by "grand narratives," emphasizing a pattern of over-excitement at high valuations while neglecting risk and cost-effectiveness [4] - An expert noted that Liang's case highlights common pitfalls in the private equity industry, such as over-reliance on single narratives and the failure of risk control mechanisms under emotional pressure [4] Strategic Adjustments - In response to the losses, Liang indicated a shift in investment philosophy, suggesting a need to balance long-term holding with absolute return considerations to reduce future drawdowns [5] - Shiwa Asset plans to maintain its focus on high-quality companies while increasing sensitivity to valuations and market style changes, enhancing quantitative research to mitigate subjective judgment uncertainties [5] Future Investment Direction - Looking ahead, Shiwa Asset intends to maintain a technology-focused investment strategy while also exploring opportunities in sectors like chemicals and consumer goods that may benefit from macroeconomic recovery [6]

在该重视筹码的时候进行筹码博弈，在该重视叙事的时候幻想叙事不要在该重视筹码的时候被脑补的宏大叙事 / 枯竭叙事的陷阱给埋在坑里，也不要在该做远大梦想的时候被区区筹码这点小事一叶障目判断到底应该格局还是应该纸手，基于目前市场阶段的宏观环境来决定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article critiques the communication style of Yu Minhong, founder of New Oriental, highlighting a disconnect between his grand narratives and the realities faced by employees, particularly in the context of a changing corporate environment [9][10][11]. Group 1: Communication Style - Yu Minhong's recent internal communication was criticized for its lack of structure and clarity, making it difficult for employees to engage with the content [6][8]. - The use of grand narratives and emotional appeals in his messages is seen as outdated, especially when addressing a more sophisticated and elite workforce [10][11]. - Employees expressed frustration over the disparity between Yu's experiences and their own struggles, indicating a need for more relatable and practical communication [11][16]. Group 2: Changing Workplace Dynamics - The article notes a shift in workplace culture where transparency and open communication are increasingly valued, contrasting with past practices of closed-off corporate environments [12][13]. - Social media has empowered employees to voice their concerns, making it harder for leaders to maintain a controlled narrative [13][14]. - The prevalence of employee feedback on platforms like Maimai has created a new dynamic where negative sentiments can quickly gain media attention, impacting corporate reputation [13][14]. Group 3: Recommendations for Improvement - To improve employee relations, it is suggested that Yu Minhong should adopt a more structured approach in his communications, including better formatting and a focus on specific issues rather than abstract sentiments [14][15]. - Emphasizing concrete plans and addressing employee welfare directly could foster a more positive response from staff [15][16]. - The article advocates for a shift from emotional appeals to practical discussions about company direction and employee engagement [15][16].

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of grand narratives on asset pricing, emphasizing that economic behavior is influenced not only by rational analysis but also by prevailing narratives, as proposed by economist Robert Shiller [1] - It identifies five leading asset classes in 2025: precious metals, non-ferrous metals, emerging market stocks, technology assets, and alternative assets, all influenced by narratives such as the reconstruction of the dollar credit system and the reshaping of global supply chains [1] - The interconnectedness of these narratives creates a "narrative constellation," which is more influential than individual narratives [1] Group 2 - The rise of narratives is linked to changes in global macro variables, where traditional economic assumptions of continuity are challenged by significant non-continuous changes in fiscal and monetary conditions, trade environments, and geopolitical factors [2] - The influence of narratives poses challenges to traditional investment research methodologies, as the long timelines of grand narratives can bypass short-term validations and disrupt mean reversion assumptions [2] Group 3 - To adapt to the influence of narratives, the article suggests differentiating narrative levels for better risk-return matching, utilizing thematic asset categories that align with narratives, and increasing the use of momentum strategies during narrative-driven phases [3] - It also recommends establishing objective indicators for narrative validation and recognizing the potential for narrative bubbles, advocating for a diversified approach to narrative investments [4] Group 4 - The article notes a divergence in asset narratives during the third week of October, with U.S. stock markets rebounding amid the end of the Fed's balance sheet reduction, while Japanese stocks experienced a pullback [5] - Precious metals narratives strengthened, with gold and silver prices reaching new highs, while copper prices showed signs of retreat [6] Group 5 - The article highlights the performance of global stock markets, noting a rebound in U.S. stocks, while European stocks remained subdued due to fiscal expectations and export concerns [5] - It also discusses the dynamics of commodity prices, with gold and silver showing strong performance, while oil prices declined due to geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production increases [7] Group 6 - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the U.S. government's ongoing shutdown, which could impact market confidence and policy risks if it extends into November [11] - It also mentions the potential for the Fed to end its balance sheet reduction in the coming months, shifting focus towards employment risks and liquidity stability [13] Group 7 - The article discusses the recent credit fraud incidents in U.S. regional banks, highlighting vulnerabilities in the credit system under high-interest rate conditions [15] - It suggests that these incidents may not pose systemic risks but indicate weaknesses in the credit structure that could lead to further risk reassessment in the market [16] Group 8 - The article outlines the current state of China's asset pricing, noting a rise in the pricing power of Chinese assets amid global market uncertainties [9] - It highlights the performance of various sectors within the Chinese market, with a shift towards value styles and a pullback in high-growth narratives [10] Group 9 - The article reports on the recent developments in China's fiscal and monetary policies, including the expansion of the central bank's balance sheet and the need for effective credit support for the real economy [21] - It emphasizes the importance of infrastructure investment and the government's commitment to enhancing domestic demand and stabilizing the economy [29] Group 10 - The article discusses the ambitious goals set by China's government for electric vehicle charging infrastructure, aiming to significantly increase the number of charging facilities by 2027 [25][26] - It highlights the expected compound annual growth rate of 29.8% for charging facilities from 2025 to 2027, reflecting the government's commitment to supporting the electric vehicle industry [26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the "water buffalo" market in China, driven by liquidity, macro narratives, and micro industry sparks, while also addressing potential risks to its sustainability [4][5][10] - The recent influx of approximately 1.5 to 1.7 trillion RMB into the A-share market, primarily from large asset allocators like insurance companies, indicates a significant shift in investment strategies [5][26] - Despite the positive market sentiment, there is a notable structural divergence where small and mid-cap stocks are surging while fundamentally strong large-cap stocks are lagging [6][38] Group 2 - The article identifies three main driving forces behind the current market trend: improvement in macro narratives, micro industry sparks, and the recent influx of funds into the stock market [18][19][20] - The macro narrative has improved since September last year, with a clearer direction and restored confidence, while micro industries such as AI and innovative pharmaceuticals are emerging as key themes [42][45] - The liquidity index has turned positive, reflecting a marginally relaxed financial environment that benefits the stock market [24][25] Group 3 - The article warns of three major risks: weak fundamentals, uncertainties in US-China relations, and domestic policy responses [10][53][64] - Current economic indicators suggest challenges in corporate profits, cash flow, and consumer confidence, with no significant recovery in sight [53][60] - The article emphasizes the importance of policy measures to enhance shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, which could help transition the current "water buffalo" market into a more sustainable "institutional bull" market [72]