二、叙事明显影响资产定价 这五类流行叙事并非彼此割裂，而是相互关联、逻辑上相互支持，围绕全球货币、生产体系、资产载体 这一主线层层展开、相互嵌套，形成叙事星座。以美元信用边际弱化为起点，投资者质疑既有国际货币 体系的可持续性，催生黄金重塑货币锚的想象，将部分价值锚定从信用货币转向实物资产；地缘格局重 组推动供应链从单一效率导向转为安全加弹性导向；人工智能基础设施化一方面塑造未来增长预期、推 动科技资产溢价，另一方面通过算力、数据中心和能源消耗扩张，抬升对铜、铝等关键有色金属的结构 性需求，使其从传统周期品上升为承载技术与安全双重属性的新原油。由此，从货币锚重估到生产与贸 易格局再布局，再到技术路径与资源约束重塑，构成自上而下闭环的宏大叙事体系，并在定价层面共同 指向贵金属、有色金属、部分新兴市场资产和科技板块的相对收益优势。 叙事通过多种路径参与资产定价过程：一是通过预期与贴现率通道重塑合理价格区间，当相关叙事占据 主导时，投资者系统性地下调对部分美元资产的安全性评估、上调对实物资产的稀缺性溢价预期，使传 统估值模型给出的公允价值在市场博弈中被不断上移或下移。二是通过风险溢价与波动率通道放大顺周 期性，叙事在 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of grand narratives in cinema and their implications in the context of societal changes, particularly focusing on the "Avatar" franchise and its reflection on the real estate market in China. Group 1: Evolution of Grand Narratives - "Avatar" represents a significant technological ambition in global culture, marking a shift in cinematic storytelling since its release in 2009 [5][6] - The long gap between "Avatar" and its sequel, "Avatar 2: The Way of Water," highlights the challenges of technological advancements in filmmaking, particularly in underwater motion capture [8][10] - The narrative complexity of the "Avatar" series expanded over time, evolving from a planned trilogy to a five-part saga, reflecting the intricate world-building process [10][12] Group 2: Audience Perception and Market Dynamics - Audience reactions to "Avatar 2" indicate a shift from awe to a more critical perspective, suggesting that the novelty of grand narratives has diminished over time [14][15] - The rise of streaming services has altered viewing habits, making traditional cinematic experiences less appealing, particularly for visually immersive films like "Avatar" [11][15] - The article posits that grand narratives can shape market perceptions, but as societal complexities increase, trust in these narratives diminishes [16][17] Group 3: Real Estate Market as a Grand Narrative - The narrative of urbanization and real estate in China has been closely tied to economic cycles, with significant policy interventions during downturns [20][21] - The transformation of cities and the real estate market reflects a shift from rapid expansion to a more nuanced understanding of urban living, influenced by demographic changes and technological advancements [25][26] - The current state of the real estate market is characterized by a "deep water zone," where traditional growth narratives are being reassessed in light of new economic realities [25][26]

Core Viewpoint - The founder of Shiwa Asset, Liang Hong, publicly apologized for significant net value declines in his funds, attributing the losses to three investment misjudgments related to innovative pharmaceuticals, hardware leaders, and US stablecoin concept stocks, reflecting decisions driven by "greed" and "grand narratives" [1][4] Investment Performance Summary - Shiwa Asset's weekly report indicated that most funds experienced an estimated net value drop of around 7%, with a cumulative decline of approximately 20% from peak values [2][3] - The three main investment errors accounted for about 18% of the total decline, contributing to the overall 20% drop [3] Detailed Investment Errors - The first error involved an innovative pharmaceutical stock that initially contributed over 8 percentage points to net value growth but plummeted after a failed business development announcement, leading to a loss exceeding 4% due to delayed profit-taking [2][3] - The second error was related to a hardware leader stock, which constituted 30% of the portfolio and fell 37% due to rising storage chip prices and negative public sentiment, negatively impacting net value by over 9% [3] - The third error focused on US stablecoin concept stocks, which were heavily invested based on optimistic cryptocurrency market expectations. After a significant price drop of 60%, this investment caused a net value loss of 4-5 percentage points [3] Reflection on Investment Decisions - Liang Hong identified the root causes of the investment mistakes as "greed" and decisions driven by "grand narratives," emphasizing a pattern of over-excitement at high valuations while neglecting risk and cost-effectiveness [4] - An expert noted that Liang's case highlights common pitfalls in the private equity industry, such as over-reliance on single narratives and the failure of risk control mechanisms under emotional pressure [4] Strategic Adjustments - In response to the losses, Liang indicated a shift in investment philosophy, suggesting a need to balance long-term holding with absolute return considerations to reduce future drawdowns [5] - Shiwa Asset plans to maintain its focus on high-quality companies while increasing sensitivity to valuations and market style changes, enhancing quantitative research to mitigate subjective judgment uncertainties [5] Future Investment Direction - Looking ahead, Shiwa Asset intends to maintain a technology-focused investment strategy while also exploring opportunities in sectors like chemicals and consumer goods that may benefit from macroeconomic recovery [6]

Market Strategy - Emphasize the importance of focusing on market dynamics (筹码博弈) when appropriate and narrative (叙事) when appropriate [1] - Avoid being misled by grand narratives (宏大叙事) or narratives of depletion (枯竭叙事) when market dynamics are crucial [1] - Avoid being shortsighted by focusing solely on market dynamics when long-term vision is required [1] - The decision to adopt a long-term perspective (格局) or a short-term, risk-averse approach (纸手) should be based on the current macroeconomic environment [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article critiques the communication style of Yu Minhong, founder of New Oriental, highlighting a disconnect between his grand narratives and the realities faced by employees, particularly in the context of a changing corporate environment [9][10][11]. Group 1: Communication Style - Yu Minhong's recent internal communication was criticized for its lack of structure and clarity, making it difficult for employees to engage with the content [6][8]. - The use of grand narratives and emotional appeals in his messages is seen as outdated, especially when addressing a more sophisticated and elite workforce [10][11]. - Employees expressed frustration over the disparity between Yu's experiences and their own struggles, indicating a need for more relatable and practical communication [11][16]. Group 2: Changing Workplace Dynamics - The article notes a shift in workplace culture where transparency and open communication are increasingly valued, contrasting with past practices of closed-off corporate environments [12][13]. - Social media has empowered employees to voice their concerns, making it harder for leaders to maintain a controlled narrative [13][14]. - The prevalence of employee feedback on platforms like Maimai has created a new dynamic where negative sentiments can quickly gain media attention, impacting corporate reputation [13][14]. Group 3: Recommendations for Improvement - To improve employee relations, it is suggested that Yu Minhong should adopt a more structured approach in his communications, including better formatting and a focus on specific issues rather than abstract sentiments [14][15]. - Emphasizing concrete plans and addressing employee welfare directly could foster a more positive response from staff [15][16]. - The article advocates for a shift from emotional appeals to practical discussions about company direction and employee engagement [15][16].

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of grand narratives on asset pricing, emphasizing that economic behavior is influenced not only by rational analysis but also by prevailing narratives, as proposed by economist Robert Shiller [1] - It identifies five leading asset classes in 2025: precious metals, non-ferrous metals, emerging market stocks, technology assets, and alternative assets, all influenced by narratives such as the reconstruction of the dollar credit system and the reshaping of global supply chains [1] - The interconnectedness of these narratives creates a "narrative constellation," which is more influential than individual narratives [1] Group 2 - The rise of narratives is linked to changes in global macro variables, where traditional economic assumptions of continuity are challenged by significant non-continuous changes in fiscal and monetary conditions, trade environments, and geopolitical factors [2] - The influence of narratives poses challenges to traditional investment research methodologies, as the long timelines of grand narratives can bypass short-term validations and disrupt mean reversion assumptions [2] Group 3 - To adapt to the influence of narratives, the article suggests differentiating narrative levels for better risk-return matching, utilizing thematic asset categories that align with narratives, and increasing the use of momentum strategies during narrative-driven phases [3] - It also recommends establishing objective indicators for narrative validation and recognizing the potential for narrative bubbles, advocating for a diversified approach to narrative investments [4] Group 4 - The article notes a divergence in asset narratives during the third week of October, with U.S. stock markets rebounding amid the end of the Fed's balance sheet reduction, while Japanese stocks experienced a pullback [5] - Precious metals narratives strengthened, with gold and silver prices reaching new highs, while copper prices showed signs of retreat [6] Group 5 - The article highlights the performance of global stock markets, noting a rebound in U.S. stocks, while European stocks remained subdued due to fiscal expectations and export concerns [5] - It also discusses the dynamics of commodity prices, with gold and silver showing strong performance, while oil prices declined due to geopolitical factors and OPEC+ production increases [7] Group 6 - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the U.S. government's ongoing shutdown, which could impact market confidence and policy risks if it extends into November [11] - It also mentions the potential for the Fed to end its balance sheet reduction in the coming months, shifting focus towards employment risks and liquidity stability [13] Group 7 - The article discusses the recent credit fraud incidents in U.S. regional banks, highlighting vulnerabilities in the credit system under high-interest rate conditions [15] - It suggests that these incidents may not pose systemic risks but indicate weaknesses in the credit structure that could lead to further risk reassessment in the market [16] Group 8 - The article outlines the current state of China's asset pricing, noting a rise in the pricing power of Chinese assets amid global market uncertainties [9] - It highlights the performance of various sectors within the Chinese market, with a shift towards value styles and a pullback in high-growth narratives [10] Group 9 - The article reports on the recent developments in China's fiscal and monetary policies, including the expansion of the central bank's balance sheet and the need for effective credit support for the real economy [21] - It emphasizes the importance of infrastructure investment and the government's commitment to enhancing domestic demand and stabilizing the economy [29] Group 10 - The article discusses the ambitious goals set by China's government for electric vehicle charging infrastructure, aiming to significantly increase the number of charging facilities by 2027 [25][26] - It highlights the expected compound annual growth rate of 29.8% for charging facilities from 2025 to 2027, reflecting the government's commitment to supporting the electric vehicle industry [26]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the "water buffalo" market in China, driven by liquidity, macro narratives, and micro industry sparks, while also addressing potential risks to its sustainability [4][5][10] - The recent influx of approximately 1.5 to 1.7 trillion RMB into the A-share market, primarily from large asset allocators like insurance companies, indicates a significant shift in investment strategies [5][26] - Despite the positive market sentiment, there is a notable structural divergence where small and mid-cap stocks are surging while fundamentally strong large-cap stocks are lagging [6][38] Group 2 - The article identifies three main driving forces behind the current market trend: improvement in macro narratives, micro industry sparks, and the recent influx of funds into the stock market [18][19][20] - The macro narrative has improved since September last year, with a clearer direction and restored confidence, while micro industries such as AI and innovative pharmaceuticals are emerging as key themes [42][45] - The liquidity index has turned positive, reflecting a marginally relaxed financial environment that benefits the stock market [24][25] Group 3 - The article warns of three major risks: weak fundamentals, uncertainties in US-China relations, and domestic policy responses [10][53][64] - Current economic indicators suggest challenges in corporate profits, cash flow, and consumer confidence, with no significant recovery in sight [53][60] - The article emphasizes the importance of policy measures to enhance shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, which could help transition the current "water buffalo" market into a more sustainable "institutional bull" market [72]