广发宏观周度述评（第35期） 广发宏观周度述评 （第1-34期，复盘必读） 内容 第一，如何看宏大叙事对资产定价的影响。 经济学家罗伯特席勒曾经提出过一个重要观点，经济行为不仅取决于理性分析和市场机 制，还在很大程度上受到流行"叙事"（narrative）的影响。在著作《叙事经济学》中他主张把"叙事"纳入经济分析框架，他认为，如果 经济学家将他们对流行叙事的理解考虑进对经济事件的解释，对预测会非常有帮助。 2025年以来大类资产定价的特征之一就显然包含着叙事的影响。在报告《年初以来大类资产在定价什么》中，我们总结2025年有五类 资产表现领先：一是贵金属；二是有色金属；三是新兴市场股票；四是科技资产；五是另类资产。其定价逻辑背后就包含着近年流行的 一系列叙事，比如美元信用体系重构、全球供应链重塑、新一轮科技革命、算力是AI时代的基础设施、有色金属相当于AI时代的石油 等。值得注意的是，上述几大叙事在逻辑上是存在关联、逻辑上相互支持的，这就是席勒所说的"叙事星座"，因为其宏大性，它往往比 单一叙事更具有影响力。 为什么会出现叙事的升温？我们理解和全球宏观变量"连续性"出现变化有关。传统经济学对宏观经济的理解依赖 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article discusses the "water buffalo" market in China, driven by liquidity, macro narratives, and micro industry sparks, while also addressing potential risks to its sustainability [4][5][10] - The recent influx of approximately 1.5 to 1.7 trillion RMB into the A-share market, primarily from large asset allocators like insurance companies, indicates a significant shift in investment strategies [5][26] - Despite the positive market sentiment, there is a notable structural divergence where small and mid-cap stocks are surging while fundamentally strong large-cap stocks are lagging [6][38] Group 2 - The article identifies three main driving forces behind the current market trend: improvement in macro narratives, micro industry sparks, and the recent influx of funds into the stock market [18][19][20] - The macro narrative has improved since September last year, with a clearer direction and restored confidence, while micro industries such as AI and innovative pharmaceuticals are emerging as key themes [42][45] - The liquidity index has turned positive, reflecting a marginally relaxed financial environment that benefits the stock market [24][25] Group 3 - The article warns of three major risks: weak fundamentals, uncertainties in US-China relations, and domestic policy responses [10][53][64] - Current economic indicators suggest challenges in corporate profits, cash flow, and consumer confidence, with no significant recovery in sight [53][60] - The article emphasizes the importance of policy measures to enhance shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, which could help transition the current "water buffalo" market into a more sustainable "institutional bull" market [72]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 2025 年 07 月 08 日 -7% 4% 16% 28% 39% 51% 62% 74% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 2025-07 非银行金融 沪深300 作者 分析师刘文强 非银行金融 持续关注宏大叙事效应，把握好非银金融板块节奏-非银周观点 从近期市场交易定价看，公募考核新规基准回补效应持续引发市场关注，市 场量能有所放大，银行、保险板块高位波动向上突破，券商、多元金融板块 波动走强。我们判断，7 月后国内外大事将迎来密集交织期，宏大叙事或是 决定市场可能进一步走强的关键因素。短期来看，包括国泰君安国际获得稳 定币相关牌照，引发市场广泛关注。市场成交量近期有所回升，或对证券板 块定价吸引力提升。交易节奏而言，市场可能要阶段性聚焦内部问题，具体 或要看包括 7 月份的政治局会议定调，以及 4 中全会等重磅会议。并购线建 议重点关注以信达证券、首创证券、浙商证券、国联民生、中国银河等为代 表个股；具有估值扩张空间的公司，推荐关注综合能力强、风险资本指标优 化、受益 ETF 发展的华泰证券、中金公司等；同时从赔率弹性角度，建议逢 低关注布局金融 IT 板块 ...