1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Amid the escalation of the Sino - US trade war, from September 26 to October 10, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond dropped 2.4bp from 1.799% to 1.775%. Considering the decline in per - capita consumption during the National Day holiday and the fact that the manufacturing PMI has not returned above the boom - bust line, the bond market is unlikely to turn bearish. The interest - rate decline days in the bond market due to the second "tariff war" may be less than a week, and investors are advised to trade cautiously, maintaining the view that interest rates have a ceiling and a floor this year [10][15]. - After the release of a series of US data in October, including EIA crude oil inventory, consumer credit change, etc., the current main market trend still revolves around computing power and electricity. Monetary policy expectations in countries such as the US and Japan may extend the bubble period and boost the prices of gold and resource - related products while increasing inflation expectations. The increase in US crude oil inventory and the weakness in consumer credit and consumer confidence may suppress oil prices and put the Fed in a "dilemma" in terms of interest - rate cuts. As of October 10, the probability of a 25bp interest - rate cut in October 2025 is expected to reach 96.7%, and the probability of another cut in December is 92.4% [16][17][24]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Views 3.1.1 Bond Trading Opportunities Amid the Escalation of the Sino - US Trade War - From September 29 to October 10, 2025, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond dropped 2.4bp from 1.799% on September 26 to 1.775%. During the week, factors such as policy announcements, PMI data, and central bank operations affected the yield fluctuations. The decline in per - capita consumption during the National Day holiday and the sub - par manufacturing PMI suggest that the economic recovery foundation needs repair, and the bond market is unlikely to turn bearish. The second "tariff war" has led to a decline in interest rates, but the duration may be less than a week [10][11][15]. 3.1.2 Future Changes in US Treasury Yields After Data Release - The current market is sensitive to external disturbances. The main trend still focuses on computing power and electricity. The increase in US crude oil inventory, weak consumer credit, and low consumer confidence may suppress oil prices. The Fed is in a "dilemma" regarding interest - rate cuts. As of October 10, the probability of a 25bp interest - rate cut in October 2025 is expected to reach 96.7%, and the probability of another cut in December is 92.4% [16][17][24]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Summaries 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - In the open - market operations from September 29 to October 10, 2025, the total net investment was - 7281 billion yuan. The money - market interest rates showed certain changes. The issuance and yields of interest - rate bonds also had corresponding fluctuations [28][30][33]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Steel prices declined comprehensively, while LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices rose. The total trading area of commercial housing decreased. The VIX fear index led the gains, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index led the losses. The US Treasury yields declined overall, and the dollar index led the gains while the yen led the losses [51][52][65]. 3.3 One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - In the week from September 29 to October 10, 2025, 27 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 825.28 billion yuan, including 566.38 billion yuan in refinancing bonds, 159.69 billion yuan in new special bonds, and 99.20 billion yuan in new general bonds. The net financing amount was 386.37 billion yuan. Seven provinces and municipalities issued local government bonds, and no local special refinancing special bonds for replacing hidden debts were issued this week. Since January 1, 2025, the cumulative issuance of such bonds has reached 19,649.46 billion yuan. The total early - redemption scale of urban investment bonds this week was 5.00 billion yuan, all from Chongqing [81][84][88]. 3.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - The current stock of local government bonds is 53.49 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 771.54 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.14%. The top three provinces with the most active local government bond trading are Guangdong, Inner Mongolia, and Hebei, and the top three active trading terms are 10Y, 30Y, and 20Y. The maturity yields of local government bonds generally increased [91][94][95]. 3.3.3 Local Government Bond Issuance Plan for This Month - Relevant local government bond issuance plans are presented in the form of a chart, but specific numerical details are not further described in the text [97]. 3.4 One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - In the primary market this week, 90 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 771.59 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 1,865.20 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of - 1,093.61 billion yuan, a decrease of 1,859.60 billion yuan compared to last week. By type, urban investment bonds had a net financing amount of - 554.32 billion yuan, and industrial bonds had a net financing amount of - 539.29 billion yuan [99][100]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The actual issuance interest rate of short - term financing bonds was 1.6622%, a decrease of 2.73bp; the issuance interest rate of medium - term notes was 2.2088%, a decrease of 3.95bp; and the issuance interest rate of corporate bonds was 2.1900%, a decrease of 4.16bp [108]. 3.4.3 Secondary Market Trading Overview - The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 1,604.13 billion yuan. By rating, the trading volume of AAA - rated bonds was the largest, reaching 1,113.18 billion yuan [110]. 3.4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of national development bonds declined comprehensively. The yields of short - term financing and medium - term notes and corporate bonds generally declined, while the yields of urban investment bonds generally increased [111][113][116]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, the credit spreads of corporate bonds generally narrowed, and the credit spreads of urban investment bonds generally widened [120][121][126]. 3.4.6 Grade Spreads - The grade spreads of short - term financing, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds generally widened [130][132][136]. 3.4.7 Trading Activity - The top five most actively traded bonds in each category are listed, including short - term financing, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, etc. Most of the highly - traded bonds are AAA - rated [142]. 3.4.8 Issuer Credit Rating Changes - The credit ratings of two issuers were upgraded this week, namely Xiangtan Transportation Development Group Co., Ltd. and Jiangyou Hongfei Investment (Group) Co., Ltd. There were no bonds with downgraded ratings or outlooks [145].