Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices stabilized around $4960, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and renewed safe-haven buying [1] - The potential for gold prices to test the $5000 mark is contingent on ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy signals [1] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is in a bullish phase, with a potential upward movement if it breaks above $5100 [2][4] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - Brent crude oil prices have risen above $70 for the first time in over two weeks, primarily due to geopolitical tensions rather than a shift in supply-demand dynamics [5] - The market is experiencing a risk premium re-evaluation, with potential risks in the Strait of Hormuz providing upward momentum for oil prices [5] - Technical indicators suggest a possible downward trend following a small breakout, with key resistance at $66.5-$67.5 and support at $64.0-$63.0 [5] Group 3: Trading Strategies and Insights - The importance of minimizing speculative trades is emphasized, as frequent trading can increase the probability of losses [1] - Investors are advised to adopt a strategy of buying on dips and selling on rallies, focusing on key support and resistance levels [4][5] - The significance of following market trends rather than attempting to time market tops and bottoms is highlighted, as this can lead to missed opportunities and increased losses [6][7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term monetary policy expectations suppress precious metals, but they remain in a high - level oscillation pattern supported by global central bank gold purchases, COMEX gold inventory reduction, and geopolitical risks. The market focus has shifted to the upcoming US January CPI data, and the inflation path will be the key to pricing Fed policies and precious metal trends in the next stage. Due to the decline of US technology stocks and profit - taking by some investors, precious metal prices dropped. The strategy is to remain on the sidelines for now, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 950 - 1100 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver being 18500 - 21000 yuan/kilogram [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - Shanghai gold dropped 2.42% to 1100.96 yuan/gram, and Shanghai silver dropped 1.88% to 19188.00 yuan/kilogram. COMEX gold dropped 3.08% to 4941.40 dollars/ounce, and COMEX silver dropped 10.62% to 75.25 dollars/ounce. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.09%, and the US dollar index was 96.91 [2] - The Thursday plunge of precious metals might be due to the decline of US technology stocks, forcing some investors to close positions to replenish liquidity, combined with CTA trading strategies and profit - taking by investors. The initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending February 7 were 227,000, higher than the expected 222,000. The continuing jobless claims for the week ending January 31 were 1.862 million, slightly higher than the expected 1.85 million. The annualized total number of existing home sales in the US in January was 3.91 million, a month - on - month decrease of 8.4%, which might ease the hawkish market expectations brought by previous non - farm employment data [2] 3.2 Strategy Views - Due to the decline of US technology stocks forcing investors to close positions for replenishment and profit - taking by some investors, precious metal prices dropped. But supported by global central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks, they are still in a high - level oscillation. The key market game has shifted to Friday's CPI data. Temporarily stay on the sidelines, with the reference operating range for the main contract of Shanghai gold being 950 - 1100 yuan/gram and that for the main contract of Shanghai silver being 18500 - 21000 yuan/kilogram [4] 3.3 Key Data Summary - **Gold**: COMEX gold's closing price (active contract) was 5107.80 dollars/ounce, up 1.19%; trading volume was 125,400 lots, up 23.12%; open interest was 409,700 lots, down 16.13%; inventory was 1080 tons, down 1.40%. LBMA gold's closing price was 5077.85 dollars/ounce, up 0.92%. SHFE gold's closing price (active contract) was 1126.12 yuan/gram, down 0.38%; trading volume was 324,400 lots, up 14.97%; open interest was 302,700 lots, down 0.63%; inventory was 105.07 tons, unchanged; precipitated funds were 5.4533 billion yuan, down 1.01%. AuT + D's closing price was 1122.92 yuan/gram, down 0.14%; trading volume was 24.71 tons, down 14.71%; open interest was 255.19 tons, down 3.12% [7] - **Silver**: COMEX silver's closing price (active contract) was 84.09 dollars/ounce, up 4.35%; open interest was 143,200 lots, down 8.59%; inventory was 11868 tons, down 1.22%. LBMA silver's closing price was 86.10 dollars/ounce, up 4.64%. SHFE silver's closing price (active contract) was 20,626.00 yuan/kilogram, down 1.52%; trading volume was 1,109,100 lots, up 2.31%; open interest was 540,200 lots, down 2.84%; inventory was 349.63 tons, up 2.20%; precipitated funds were 3.0082 billion yuan, down 4.32%. AgT + D's closing price was 19,670.00 yuan/kilogram, down 1.15%; trading volume was 220.35 tons, down 5.23%; open interest was 3143.492 tons, down 1.42% [7] 3.4 ETF Holdings - **Gold**: iShare US's holding was 499.84 tons, up 0.08%; GBS UK's holding was 30.80 tons, down 0.22%; PHAU UK's holding was 54.48 tons, down 0.21%; GOLD UK's holding was 29.92 tons, up 0.04%; SGBS Switzerland's holding was 36.12 tons, unchanged [65] - **Silver**: SLV US's trading volume was 96.4592 million shares, up 29.09%; ETPMAG Australia's holding was 489.86 tons, down 1.18%; PSLV Canada's holding was 6747.30 tons, unchanged; CEF Canada's holding was 1610.16 tons, unchanged [65]

需求方面也值得关注。中国人民银行在一月份连续第15个月继续购买黄金，这一持续行为反映了在全球经济不确定性背景下，主要经济体对黄金的稳定需 求。 交易者目前保持谨慎态度，不愿在重要经济数据发布前做出激进的方向性押注。本周市场将关注多项美国经济数据，包括周二的月度零售销售数据、周三的 非农就业报告以及周五的消费者通胀数据。这些数据的表现将为美联储未来的政策路径提供更多线索，进而影响美元走势和黄金价格。 黄金市场在近期呈现出明显的震荡格局。在周二欧洲交易时段，黄金价格小幅回落至5000美元心理关口下方，回吐了早前部分涨幅。这一波动反映了市场情 绪的复杂变化，多种因素正在影响贵金属的走势。 日本提前大选的结果消除了政治不确定性，为市场带来了一定稳定因素。与此同时，中东紧张局势出现缓解迹象，美国与伊朗关于核计划的间接谈判在周五 结束后，双方达成了维持外交路径的广泛协议。这些进展缓解了市场对地缘冲突的担忧，增强了投资者的风险偏好，从而对作为避险资产的黄金构成了一定 压力。 另一方面，货币政策预期正在为黄金提供支撑。市场目前预计美联储将在2026年至少实施两次25个基点的降息，首次降息可能在六月进行。这种预期使美元 汇率徘 ...

美元兑瑞士法郎在连续两个交易日回落后，于亚洲时段徘徊在0.7670附近。 瑞士方面呈现出截然不同的宏观环境。市场等待瑞士1月通胀数据，分析师预计年度通胀率将维持在0.1%的低位。在主要经济体中，这一水平显得格外温 和。 瑞士国家银行董事长马丁·施莱格尔指出，持续低通胀与0%的政策利率构成现实挑战，传统政策工具空间受限。瑞士央行的目标仍是将通胀维持在0–2%的区 间内，这种区间管理框架强调价格稳定的优先地位。 美元的表现还与美国经济节奏和政策前景的再评估同步展开。本周美国数据发布密集，关键数据落地前，风险偏好有所回暖，但美元并未获得明显支撑，更 多呈现观望与重新定价的特征。市场对美联储利率路径的预期仍是核心变量。 当前定价显示，三月会议维持利率不变的预期占据主导，首次降息时间被放在六月，九月可能出现后续动作。这一时间线反映出市场在通胀放缓迹象与经济 韧性之间寻找平衡点。 通胀预期的变化提供了更具体的观察窗口。美国1月中位未来一年通胀预期降至3.1%，创下六个月低点，显示居民对价格压力的感知有所缓解。食品价格预 期仍维持在5.7%，说明结构性价格压力尚未完全消退。三年与五年的通胀预期稳定在3%，中长期预期的相对稳 ...

摘要周三亚洲早盘，现货黄金延续反弹，09:20一度涨逾2%至5053.10美元/盎司，逐步收复上周剧烈抛 售失地，市场聚焦美国经济数据及避险需求变化。 地缘局势成关键支撑：美军在阿拉伯海击落"侵犯性接近"航母"亚伯拉罕.林肯号"的伊朗无人机，叠加 特朗普被传考虑对伊动武，中东紧张升温。美伊外交亦添变数——伊朗要求将土耳其会谈改至阿曼且仅 限核问题双边对话，不确定性推升避险情绪。 不过，美联储主席提名抑制上行空间：鹰派倾向的凯文.沃什被提名，市场下调降息预期(CME显示6月 降息概率降至66%)。短期金价或持续受地缘风险与货币政策预期交织影响，波动难平。 周三亚洲早盘，现货黄金延续反弹，09:20一度涨逾2%至5053.10美元/盎司，逐步收复上周剧烈抛售失 地，市场聚焦美国经济数据及避险需求变化。 ...

周二(2月3日)亚洲时段，前一交易日经历罕见剧烈调整后，国际金价周二亚洲时段现技术性反弹，部分 收复失地。但市场情绪仍偏谨慎，多头入场节奏迟缓，显示投资者对短期环境存忧。宏观层面，货币政 策预期成制约金价关键因素，美联储人事及政策走向的不确定性，令市场观望情绪浓厚，反弹持续性有 待观察。 地缘层面，美伊本周可能展开外交接触，但局势仍存变数，任何紧张重燃都可能促使避险资金回流黄 金。总体来看，金价处多空交织的敏感期，基本面与政策预期对走势的主导作用已明显强于单一避险情 绪。 【技术分析】 从日线走势来看，黄金在此前快速拉升后出现剧烈回调，波动幅度显著放大，显示高位获利盘集中释 放。当前价格虽自低点回升，但整体仍运行在前期高位下方，说明市场尚未完成对前一轮上涨行情的消 化。 摘要周二(2月3日)亚洲时段，前一交易日经历罕见剧烈调整后，国际金价周二亚洲时段现技术性反弹， 部分收复失地。但市场情绪仍偏谨慎，多头入场节奏迟缓，显示投资者对短期环境存忧。宏观层面，货 币政策预期成制约金价关键因素，美联储人事及政策走向的不确定性，令市场观望情绪浓厚，反弹持续 性有待观察。 【要闻速递】 特朗普提名凯文.沃什接任美联储主席， ...

2026年2月2日，全球贵金属市场迎来剧烈震荡，打破了此前持续数月的强劲上涨格局。近期以来，受全 球地缘政治不确定性上升、美联储持续释放降息信号、全球央行大规模增持黄金以及工业需求攀升等多 重利好因素共振，国际贵金属价格迎来历史性上涨行情，黄金价格一路高歌猛进，在1月29日创下 5598.75美元/盎司的历史峰值，COMEX黄金价格最高更是触及5626.8美元/盎司，2026年以来最大涨幅 已逼近30%;白银价格同步走强，沪银主力合约创下30444元/千克的历史新高，国际白银价格站上90美 元/盎司关口，年内涨幅超23%。市场看多情绪达到阶段性顶峰，黄金ETF、白银期货持仓量均创下历史 新高，大量资金持续流入贵金属市场，不少机构纷纷上调贵金属长期目标价，看好其避险与增值潜力。 然而，2月2日这一持续向好的态势被彻底逆转，黄金、白银价格迎来断崖式回调，单日跌幅均超3%， 成交量大幅放大，市场恐慌性抛售情绪集中释放，短期市场格局发生根本性转变，成为2026年贵金属市 场最具标志性的波动事件之一。 从当日市场具体表现来看，伦敦金现开盘报5598.75美元/盎司，开盘后便快速下挫，盘中一度跌破5400 美元/盎司关口 ...

【技术分析】 月线级别，金价本月再度强势拉升，突破趋势线阻力，并走出超远距离的多头行情，目前虽产生不小回 撤，但相对涨幅以及现在反弹收复来看，本月仍有望录得自上世纪80年代以来的最佳月度表现，那么就 算2月初走布林带上轨之外和周图上轨之外的正常技术修正的回落行情，也将维持在突破趋势线阻力之 后的新牛市空间内，黄金价格上方阻力关注：5200，5260，5300；下方支撑关注：5100，5000，4950。 在宏观预期层面，黄金当前的上涨逻辑已从单一避险驱动，转向"货币政策预期+风险对冲"双轮驱动。 与此同时，地缘不确定性继续强化黄金的避险属性。 特朗普日前敦促伊朗重返谈判桌，警告若未能达成"公平协议"，未来行动力度将显著升级。伊朗方面则 回应称，将对美国、以色列及其支持方采取反制行动。相关表态加剧了市场对局势外溢风险的担忧。 在风险资产波动加剧的环境下，黄金作为传统避险资产的配置需求仍然稳固。不过，短期内市场也开始 显现谨慎情绪。黄金在过去12个月内累计涨幅接近100%，价格大幅偏离长期成本区间，部分资金选择 在高位落袋为安。 机构继续看好金价前景，瑞银将2026年3月、6月及9月金价预测上调至6200美元/盎 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-1-29 鸽派预期再定价，⾦价加速创历史新⾼ 对更鸽派、独⽴性边际弱化的美联储预期持续升温，叠加主权债与货币避 险需求外溢，推动贵⾦属再度加速上⾏。⻩⾦在配置资⾦主导下突破关键 整数位并放量⾛⾼；⽩银跟随放⼤弹性，但交易与波动⻛险同步抬升，结 构分化进⼀步显现。 黄金观点：趋势性上行延续并再创新高，货币政策预期与避险配置形 成共振，短期关注波动率抬升。 逻辑：市场对未来货币政策更趋宽松的再定价持续推进，围绕下一任 美联储主席的鸽派预期升温，强化无息资产吸引力。与此同时，主权 债与货币承压、地缘不确定性抬升，资金加速流向黄金等避险资产， 推动金价上破5400美元/盎司并放量上行。配置端与期权端同步反映 对上行风险的定价意愿，黄金在贵金属中继续体现低波动、强趋势特 征。 （以上新闻和数据均来自彭博终端） 展望：在货币政策预期、避险配置与去信用化叙事共振下，黄金中期 逻辑稳固。短期或伴随波动率抬升与获利回吐，但回调阶段仍具配置 吸引力。 白银观点：高弹性上涨延续但波动显著放大，交易层面约束上升，短 期更偏震荡消化。 逻辑： 白银 ...

对于铜价走势，国投期货表示，昨日美伦价差盘中反转，LME现货贴水扩至93美元。贵金属短线波动 大，市场焦点转向地缘、美国政府月底"停摆"、甚至美国内部冲突风险。关注短期均线位置强弱，延续 铜价高位震荡且倾向调整的看法。 （文华综合） 沪铜夜盘走弱，日内行情有所转弱，收盘微涨0.28%。周边金属走势乐观，美指低位，沪铜下方存在一 定支撑，但需求较为疲弱，全球显性库存累积，上行动力同样有限。 隔夜美元指数刷新近四年新低，外围市场不确定性笼罩，贵金属延续强势，铜价低开反弹。本周美联储 议息决议即将落地，按兵不动概率较大，但美联储新一任主席人选也将在近日公布，市场关注对美联储 后续货币政策预期的影响。 最近铜价仍然高企，下游需求继续受到抑制，现货维持贴水局面，COMEX、LME、上期所铜库存全面 增加，国内精炼铜社会库存也维持增势，弱势的需求表现限制铜价上方空间，最近虽然贵金属继续走 强，但铜价持续高位盘整，期价有一定的畏高表现。 ...