国债期货周报 进一步宽货币预期不强，债市短期 缺乏驱动 作者：熊睿健 联系方式：020-88818020 从业资格：F03088018 投资咨询资格：Z0019608 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明。 2025//11/22 广发期货APP 微信公众号 本周观点 | 品 | 主要观点 | 本周策略 | 上周策略 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | | 国债 ⚫ | ⚫ 资金面来看。上周资金面先紧后松，加权资金利率边际上行，原因主要是周初受到税期、政府债缴款影响，资 | 短期债市处于箱体震荡阶段，10年期国债 | ⚫ 整体宏观环境偏利好债市。短 | | | 金面明显承压，后半周随着央行加力投放和税期影响消退，资金利率迎来下行。展望下周，将会进入跨月周， | 活跃券250016.IB的波动区间可能仍在 | 期的主要利空可能是债基赎回 | | | 同时公开市场逆回购到期量大，叠加MLF将有9000亿元到期、政府债缴款也可能达到2000-3000亿元，资金 | 1.8%-1.82%、30年活跃券利率波动区间 | 费新规落地，不过已经酝酿许 | ...

三、现在该买黄金吗？三类人群策略不同 面对当前金价回调，是否入手需结合自身需求、风险偏好与资金规划综合判断： 结尾总结：黄金不是"提款机"，而是"安全垫" 黄金价格下跌，既是风险释放，也是机会酝酿。但需清醒认识到：黄金无法让人一夜暴富，却能在市场 动荡时提供"压舱石"般的保障。 对于普通投资者而言，与其纠结"现在买不买"，不如先问自己"是否了 解黄金的投资逻辑""能否承受短期波动""是否持有3年以上"。 一、金价为何突然暴跌？三大推手浮出水面 近期黄金市场的剧烈波动，本质是货币政策预期与市场情绪的双重博弈。 二、黄金投资"三难"：为何多数人赚不到钱？ 尽管黄金长期被视为"避险资产"，但世界黄金协会中国区CEO王立新直言："投资黄金有三难——了解 市场难、择时难、持有难。" 市场永远充满不确定性，但理性与耐心，永远是投资最好的朋友。 1. 美联储"鹰派转向"：原本市场预期美联储将放缓加息步伐，甚至释放降息信号，但最新数据显示 美国通胀粘性超预期，美联储官员频繁释放"高利率维持更久"的言论，导致美元指数强势反弹， 黄金作为无息资产承压下行。 2. 全球风险偏好回升：地缘政治紧张局势暂缓，股市、加密货币等风险资产吸 ...

Core Viewpoint - The USD/CAD exchange rate is influenced by the balance between oil price fluctuations and the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, with upcoming U.S. CPI and Canadian inflation data expected to dictate the currency's direction [1] Economic Fundamentals - The USD/CAD exchange rate is affected by differences in the economic fundamentals of the U.S. and Canada, diverging monetary policy expectations, and international oil price trends [1] - U.S. core PCE inflation for October was reported at 3.5%, which was lower than expected, while Federal Reserve officials emphasized maintaining high interest rates to combat inflation, pushing back rate cut expectations to 2025, thus supporting the resilience of the USD [1] - The U.S. GDP growth rate for Q3 was 2.9%, providing a solid foundation for the USD [1] - In Canada, as an oil-exporting country, the recent decline in international oil prices below $80 per barrel has led to a narrowing trade surplus, creating pressure on the economy [1] - Canada's October CPI year-on-year was 3.1%, above the central bank's 2% target, but core inflation showed a marginal decline, leading to market expectations for potential rate cuts next year, which could suppress the CAD [1] Technical Analysis - From a technical perspective, the USD/CAD has entered a bullish channel after rebounding from a low of 1.33520, currently trading at 1.4654, with key support levels at 1.4640 and 1.4630 [2] - If the exchange rate breaks below the support level of 1.4620, it may trigger a short-term correction, while resistance levels are concentrated around 1.4660, 1.4680, and the upper boundary of the previous trading range at 1.4700 [2] - Technical indicators suggest a gradual emergence of an upward trend, with MACD showing a slight increase in bullish momentum and the average directional index rising to around 23, indicating a likely range-bound movement between 1.4630 and 1.4670 in the short term [2] - If the price stabilizes above 1.4680, the target could shift towards 1.4700-1.4720; conversely, a drop below 1.4630 could extend the downside to 1.4625-1.4610 [2]

日线级别上，汇价仍处于前期反弹后的回调通道中，5日均线与10日均线形成死叉压制，MACD指标绿 柱维持收缩态势，显示空方动能有所减弱但尚未完全消退。短期需重点关注区间突破有效性，若站稳 1.3155上方可视为短期企稳信号，反之则可能延续震荡下行格局。 美元指数的震荡走势成为英镑短期波动的核心变量。美联储内部鸽鹰分歧持续，市场对12月降息概率的 预判反复调整，使得美元缺乏明确趋势性方向，间接导致英镑难以形成独立行情。同时，英国劳动力市 场降温的前期信号仍在发酵，叠加消费信心不足，英镑内生上行动能受限。 11月19日亚市盘中，英镑兑美元交投于1.3130，较前一交易日收盘价下跌0.11%，日内波动区间收窄至 1.3125-1.3150，呈现弱市整理特征。当前英国经济数据处于阶段性空白，市场目光聚焦于今日稍晚公布 的英国10月CPI数据，这将直接影响英国央行后续货币政策路径预期。 从短期技术形态看，英镑兑美元已连续三个交易日在1.3125-1.3160区间内窄幅震荡，今开1.3146、当前 交投于1.3130，多空博弈陷入胶着。上方首要阻力位锁定1.3150日内高点，该位置若能被有效突破，有 望打开向1.3180的 ...

周二亚洲交易时段，市场情绪逐渐回暖。美联储12月降息的预期持续升温，黄金继续稳站4100美元上 方，而美元走强令原油价格承压下行。美国政府停摆问题有望解决，提振了整体市场信心，但避险与风 险资产的表现分化明显。 亚洲早盘，黄金价格（XAU/USD）小幅上涨至每盎司4120美元附近，延续近期强势走势。美国就业与 消费数据疲软令市场普遍押注，美联储下月可能降息25个基点。根据CME FedWatch工具数据，投资者 认为12月降息的概率已升至约67%，到明年1月或进一步攀升至80%。这种预期削弱了美元吸引力，同 时降低了持有黄金的机会成本，从而支撑金价表现。分析人士指出，只要金价稳守4100美元关口，多头 仍占据主导地位，不过美元反弹可能对金价上行构成压制。与此同时，美国政治僵局也出现缓和。参议 院已就结束政府停摆达成初步协议，总统特朗普表示支持，预计政府将在本周重启。政治不确定性降 低，使市场风险偏好回升，短期内可能削弱黄金的避险买盘。 原油市场方面，WTI原油周二亚洲早盘小幅走低，报每桶59.90美元。美元走强与全球能源需求放缓的 担忧继续压制油价表现。上周沙特将对亚洲客户的原油售价下调至近一年低点，引发市场 ...

市场回顾与分析 上周一级市场国债、地方债和政策性金融债发行规模分别为6891亿、2472亿和1400亿，净融资额为236 亿、1658亿和-1046亿。非金信用债共计发行规模4570亿，净融资额1403亿。可转债暂无新券发行。 二级市场回顾 美国区域银行信用风险担忧缓解，中美贸易关系再度出现缓和迹象，美国9月CPI低于预期，美股震荡 修复，美元指数反弹。 权益市场 一级市场回顾 上周利率震荡走高。主要影响因素包括：四中全会、股债跷跷板、货币政策预期、资金宽松、中美谈判 预期等。 流动性跟踪 上周公开市场净投放1981亿，本周一将进行9000亿MLF续作。上周资金维持宽松，关注本周税期是否 引发流动性变化。 政策与基本面 四中全会公告披露，提出十五五时期7项经济社会发展主要目标。三季度GDP同比增4.8%、符合预期， 前三季度GDP累计同比增5.2%，9月工增超预期，固投和社零略不及预期。 海外市场 MACD金叉信号形成，这些股涨势不错！ 责任编辑：郭栩彤 上周A股受中美关系缓和预期、四中全会重点关注"科技产业"、北美大厂加单光模块等影响，风偏显著 回升，科技重回市场焦点。万得全A周内上涨3.47%，通信、电子 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant drop in gold prices, which fell nearly $50 to $4063.80 per ounce, influenced by various factors including international trade dynamics, geopolitical developments, monetary policy expectations, and stock market performance [2] - The U.S. Labor Department's release of the September Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which was below expectations, has raised the likelihood of an interest rate cut in October, although it did not alter the prevailing inflationary concerns above the 2% target [2] - The market sentiment towards gold has turned cautious despite the support from potential interest rate cuts and lingering geopolitical risks, indicating a mixed outlook for gold's long-term performance [2] Group 2 - Following last week's significant drop, gold has entered a consolidation phase, oscillating between the resistance level of $4150 and the support level of $4000, with expectations that a breakout from this range could determine the next market direction [3] - The technical analysis suggests that as long as gold remains within the $4150/$4000 range, traders should focus on effective trading strategies rather than predicting a clear trend, with potential targets of $4200, $4250, and $4300 if the bullish trend continues [3] - Domestic gold prices, particularly in the Shanghai market, have shown a similar pattern, with support levels at 930 and 925, indicating that as long as these levels hold, significant declines are unlikely [5]

Core Market Data - On October 21, 2025, the international precious metals market experienced a significant downturn, with London spot gold prices dropping by as much as 6.3%, reaching a low of $4003.43 per ounce, marking the largest single-day decline since April 2013 [1] - Concurrently, spot silver saw an even steeper decline of 8.7%, setting a record for single-day drops since 2021. This plunge triggered a chain reaction in global markets, leading to a 1.98% drop in the A-share gold concept sector on October 22, with individual stocks like Western Gold and Zhaojin Mining falling over 5% [1] Market Performance - As of October 23, 2025, a phase of rebound was observed, with London gold rising to $4112.45 per ounce, a 2.7% increase from the low point. New York gold futures reached $4121.6 per ounce, reversing the daily change to a positive 1.38% [2] - The Shanghai gold T+D closed at 940.05 yuan per gram, and Shanghai gold futures at 942.28 yuan per gram, showing significant recovery from the intraday lows, although still below pre-crash levels [2] - The volatility of London gold reached 8.9% from October 21 to 23, far exceeding the average volatility of 2.1% in the third quarter [2] Market Linkage - During the gold price crash, global asset prices exhibited a notable "risk appetite recovery" characteristic, with the three major U.S. stock indices rebounding: the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite saw weekly gains of 1.56%, 1.70%, and 2.14%, respectively [3] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) fell from 25.31 to 21.5, indicating a clear trend of funds moving from safe-haven assets to risk assets [3] - In the commodity market, silver followed gold's decline but rebounded more strongly, with London silver rising by 2.00% on October 23. Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil prices increased from $55.96 per barrel on October 21 to $60.74 per barrel on October 23, a three-day increase of 8.5% [3] Core Driving Factors - The easing of geopolitical risks, particularly the temporary de-escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, contributed to the decline in gold prices. A joint statement from leaders of Germany, France, and the UK on October 21 called for an immediate halt to military actions, which alleviated tensions [4] - However, this situation reversed within 48 hours as the U.S. announced significant sanctions against major Russian oil companies, leading to a rebound in gold prices on October 23, reflecting the "pulse-like" nature of geopolitical impacts on gold prices [4] Market Structure and Dynamics - The gold market had experienced a "historic" rise in 2025, with prices soaring from $2500 per ounce at the beginning of the year to $4380 per ounce by mid-October, a cumulative increase of over 75% [10] - The extreme rise in prices led to significant profit-taking pressure, with speculative positions reaching historical highs, indicating that the market was nearing a critical adjustment point [10][11] - The technical breakdown on October 21, where gold prices fell below the $4120 per ounce level, triggered a wave of stop-loss orders, exacerbating the decline [12] Industry Impact - The sharp decline in gold prices directly affected the profitability of gold mining companies. For instance, Barrick Gold's production cost in Q3 2025 was $1250 per ounce, and if gold prices remain below $4000 per ounce, profit margins could drop significantly [19] - Midstream refining and processing companies faced inventory devaluation pressures, with significant drops in processing orders observed shortly after the price crash [20] - Retail markets showed a split response, with some investors viewing the drop as a buying opportunity, while others chose to wait, leading to varied sales performance across different brands [21] Global Financial Market Effects - The gold price crash triggered capital outflows from emerging markets, particularly affecting stock markets in gold-consuming countries like India and Turkey [22] - Some localized risks emerged in the derivatives market, with a European investment bank reporting significant losses due to client defaults on gold forward contracts [23] - Despite short-term volatility, the long-term trend of central banks increasing gold reserves remained intact, with significant net purchases continuing [24] Historical Comparison - The current gold price decline contrasts with the April 2013 crash, which was driven by fundamental shifts in monetary policy, while the recent decline is attributed to short-term factors and market sentiment [25] - The ongoing increase in central bank gold purchases is expected to provide a stabilizing effect on the market, suggesting that the current adjustment may be a temporary phase within a broader bullish trend [26] Future Outlook - Short-term price movements are expected to oscillate between $3950 and $4300 per ounce, influenced by upcoming economic data releases and geopolitical developments [28] - Long-term structural factors, including the acceleration of de-dollarization and ongoing central bank gold purchases, are likely to support gold prices moving forward [31]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the tactical overweight view on A/H shares due to multiple supporting factors such as China's technological breakthroughs, stable total policy expectations, and capital market reforms that enhance market risk appetite [1] - The article notes that the trade risk boundaries are clearer, with China's countermeasures directly targeting key issues, making further U.S. tariffs less meaningful [1] - There is a continuous demand for quality assets in China, driven by the need to "find assets," which may provide allocation opportunities amid external market fluctuations [1] Group 2 - The article maintains a tactical benchmark view on U.S. Treasuries, anticipating a mild decline in actual interest rates due to the Fed's increasingly dovish monetary policy guidance [1] - The article highlights that the imbalance between credit supply and demand, along with stable liquidity, continues to support the bond market, despite previous adjustments [2] - The article expresses a positive outlook on gold, noting that it has surpassed key resistance levels and is supported by global geopolitical tensions and ongoing purchases by the Chinese central bank [2] Group 3 - The article asserts that the resilience of the Chinese economy and the decreasing risk of extreme geopolitical conflicts support the stability and appreciation of the RMB exchange rate [3] - It predicts that the RMB will exhibit a dual-directional fluctuation pattern, with a stable appreciation trend amid a complex global macro environment [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant drop in gold prices, with a record decline of 5.3% on October 21, marking the largest single-day drop since August 2020, driven by profit-taking, reduced safe-haven demand, and macroeconomic changes [1][2][7] - Gold prices reached a high of $4381 per ounce earlier in the year but fell to a low of $4083.15 within a single day, reflecting a nearly $300 drop [1][2] - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its 21st day, has created a data vacuum, increasing market anxiety ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting [4] Group 2 - The market is reacting to the potential for a trade agreement between the U.S. and China, with optimism surrounding negotiations resuming in Malaysia [5] - The geopolitical landscape, particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, has also influenced gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset, with expectations of a possible ceasefire reducing demand for gold [5][7] - The Federal Reserve's dovish outlook and expectations for interest rate cuts in the coming months may provide some support for gold prices, despite the recent downturn [4][7] Group 3 - The articles suggest that the recent drop in gold prices may present a buying opportunity for investors, as the long-term fundamentals supporting gold remain intact [7] - Investors are advised to closely monitor upcoming economic indicators, including CPI data and developments in U.S.-China trade talks, as these will significantly impact gold price movements [7] - The oil market is also experiencing fluctuations, with WTI crude oil prices rising due to U.S. plans to purchase oil for strategic reserves, indicating a complex interplay between different commodities [10]