Core Viewpoint - The appointment of Stephen Milan to the Federal Reserve raises concerns about the independence of the central bank, as he advocates for aggressive interest rate cuts aligned with Trump's economic policies [1][3][9]. Group 1: Appointment and Background - Stephen Milan, previously the chairman of Trump's economic advisory council, began his role at the Federal Reserve while still on unpaid leave from the White House, indicating a potential conflict of interest [3][5]. - His confirmation was contentious, passing the Senate by a narrow margin of 48 to 47 votes, highlighting the significant controversy surrounding his appointment [5][9]. Group 2: Economic Policies and Views - Milan is known for his alignment with Trump's economic strategies, including advocating for tariffs and a weaker dollar to boost exports, which he believes necessitates lower interest rates [7][11]. - He publicly challenged Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell on the need for more substantial rate cuts, suggesting rates should drop below 3% by year-end [7][11]. Group 3: Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - Milan's dual role poses a threat to the long-standing principle of Federal Reserve independence, as he suggests that the central bank should be more responsive to presidential influence [9][11]. - The potential shift in policy could lead to increased inflation risks, as traditional economic theories warn against aggressive rate cuts in the face of rising tariffs [11][13]. Group 4: Broader Economic Impact - The ongoing debate about the Federal Reserve's independence could have significant repercussions for the U.S. economy, potentially leading to higher long-term interest rates and volatility in financial markets [13][15]. - The situation reflects a broader struggle over economic governance, questioning whether decisions should be made by data-driven professionals or politically motivated leaders [15].

文 | 康路 上周，美联储将联邦基金利率下调25个基点，降至4%–4.25%区间，为自2023年初以来 最低水平。在12位有投票权的理事中，史蒂夫·米兰是唯一主张更大幅度降息的人。他希望 一次性降息50个基点，比委员会的共识更为激进。 美联储当前面临两难：通胀的阴影正在消退，但核心服务价格依然顽固。GDP增速稳健， 却掩盖就业背后的结构性不平衡。降息过早可能重燃通胀，收紧过度又可能让劳动力市场快 速降温。于是，共识成为防护网。而米兰的反对票指向了另一种可能，迫使市场重新预判前 景，定价未来。 "80后"联储理事米兰是9月议息会议上唯一投下反对票的人。而且，他没有延续美联储惯 例，在利率决议之后用书面陈述投反对票的理由。2025年9月22日，他走进纽约经济俱乐 部，面对华尔街投资决策人们，用一整场演讲阐述他投下反对票的理论框架。 在演讲中，米兰认为，联邦基准利率应该在年底降到低于3%。他认为"中性利率"被普遍高 估。尽管也有其他几位理事认为中性利率应低于3%，但米兰是唯一一位认为应该快速降息 的人，"上半年数据表明动能放缓，若继续维持高利率，就业恢复可能停滞，产出缺口会扩 大。" 市场正在重新评估美联储变量。黄 ...