Core Viewpoint - The global sugar market is expected to experience a surplus of 7.4 million tons in the 2025/26 season, the highest since the 2017/18 season, indicating potential downward pressure on sugar prices [2]. Group 1: Market Data - As of September 30, the main white sugar futures contract closed at 5,493 yuan/ton, with a slight increase of 0.07%, while the open interest decreased by 29,008 contracts to 388,037 contracts [1]. - The weekly K-line for white sugar futures showed a cumulative increase of 0.27% over the last two weeks [1]. - As of October 1, the amount of sugar waiting to be shipped at Brazilian ports was 3.2106 million tons, up from 3.1039 million tons the previous week [2]. Group 2: Production Insights - In the first half of September, sugar production in Brazil's central-southern region increased by 15.72% year-on-year, reaching 3.62 million tons [2]. - The northern sugar beet production areas have begun processing, with expectations of stable or slightly increased domestic sugar production for the 2025/26 season [3]. - The new sugar production season is expected to see an increase in imports, contributing to a continued supply pressure in the domestic market [3]. Group 3: Price Outlook - Hualian Futures predicts that sugar prices will remain low and fluctuate due to increased supply and the need to manage old sugar stocks before the new cane sugar season begins [3]. - Ruida Futures notes that the current supply is ample, which is putting downward pressure on sugar prices, despite some short-term support from weather-related issues in sugarcane-producing regions [4]. - The market sentiment is influenced by the slow sales progress of sugar from Guangxi, while the relaxation of import controls on Thai sugar syrup may lead to a slight increase in sugar syrup availability [4].