2026 年 1 月 27 日 与时舒卷——2026 年货币政策展望 唐立 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021100 Tangli2@gtht.com 王笑 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0013736 Wangxiao2@gtht.com 报告导读： 摘要： 1. 中国人民银行的"三目标制"货币政策分析框架。从具体的操作工具来看，当前人民银行在 "量"的投放方面主要运用两类工具，分别是由质押贷款类、央行资产购买类和回笼类长期主动投放工 具，正逆回购、SLF、国库定存等短期主动投放工具，和外汇占款及财政存款（抵扣）等被动投放工具构 成的主要基础货币投放工具，以及通过改变货币乘数来影响基础货币需求的降准工具。通过配合实施这两 类操作工具进行"量"的投放从而影响对 7 天逆回购利率这一政策利率的价格调控，并间接传导至 MLF 利 率、LPR 利率和 M2 增速，最终实现上述三项长期货币政策目标。 2. 房地产市场调整叠加化债，信用融资需求内生性收缩。纵观全球主要经济体，在货币宽松与房地 产市场之间往往存在周期性循环，经济面临严重问题的阶段通过大幅宽松能够在短期内迅速刺激起地产泡 沫，泡沫刺破后的阵痛期又再次开启宽松周期意图稳 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report The document presents a comprehensive overview of the economic situation across multiple sectors, including macro - data, commodity investments, finance, and the stock market. It shows a complex economic landscape with various trends such as fluctuations in macro - economic indicators, significant price movements in commodities, and diverse performances in the financial and stock markets [1][2][5][8][14][27]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Data - GDP in Q4 2025 grew at a 4.5% year - on - year rate, lower than the previous quarter (4.8%) and the same period last year (5.4%) [1] - Manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was 50.1%, slightly up from the previous month (49.8%) and the same as last year [1] - Non - manufacturing PMI for business activities in December 2025 was 50.2%, up from the previous month (50.0%) but lower than last year (52.2%) [1] - Social financing scale in December 2025 was 22075 billion yuan, down from the previous month (35299 billion yuan) and last year (28537 billion yuan) [1] - CPI in December 2025 increased by 0.8% year - on - year, up from - 0.3% in the previous month and 0.1% last year [1] - PPI in December 2025 decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, an improvement from - 2.3% in the previous month and last year [1] 2. Commodity Investment Comprehensive - The Shanghai Futures Exchange adjusted the daily price limit and trading margin ratios for copper and aluminum futures contracts from January 28, 2026 [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange plans to modify the minimum price change for soybean oil and palm oil futures and is seeking public opinions [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will list soybean meal and corn series options contracts on February 2, 2026 [2] Metals - Precious metals like gold, silver, and platinum reached new highs. Spot silver rose over 6% and touched $110/oz, gold rose over 2% and reached $5100/oz, platinum rose over 5% and broke through $2900/oz, and palladium rose nearly 3% and neared $2100/oz [5] - The tungsten market was booming with prices of tungsten raw materials, products, and alloys hitting new highs [5] - Hong Kong plans to increase its gold storage to 2000 tons in the next three years and establish a regional gold reserve hub [5] Energy and Chemicals - NYMEX Henry Hub natural gas futures rose over 33%, breaking through $7 per million British thermal units due to cold weather and supply disruptions [8] - OPEC+ is likely to keep oil production unchanged in March [9] - The EU will ban Russian liquefied natural gas from January 1, 2027, and pipeline gas from September 30, 2027 [9] Agricultural Products - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting to stabilize beef cattle production and relieve difficulties in the dairy industry [11] 3. Financial News Open Market - The central bank conducted 1505 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on January 26, with an operating rate of 1.40%. The net withdrawal was 78 billion yuan [13] Important News - The central bank will expand the scope of macro - prudential policies and maintain financial stability [14] - Policies to boost service consumption, such as expanding inbound consumption and promoting the digital trade demonstration zone, will be introduced [14] Bond Market - Chinese bond market showed mixed performance. 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds had slightly lower yields, while most treasury futures declined [18] - Exchange - traded bonds: Vanke bonds were strong, while some industrial finance bonds were weak [19] - The central bank's money market rates mostly rose [20] Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.9572, up 70 points from the previous trading day [23] Research Report Highlights - Huatai Fixed Income suggests investors moderately lock in profits in convertible bonds and adjust positions from overweight to neutral [24] - Huatai Fixed Income believes the bond market's trading opportunities have improved this year [24] - CITIC Securities warns of the upward risk of global bond interest rates [25] Today's Reminders - On January 27, 231 bonds will be listed, 191 bonds will be issued, 103 bonds will make payments, and 76 bonds will pay principal and interest [26] 4. Stock Market - On Monday, the A - share market declined slightly, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.09%. The market turnover increased to 3.28 trillion yuan [27] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.06%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 1.24% [28]

FICC日报 | 2026-01-23 关注上证50调整节奏 市场分析 货币政策维持宽松。宏观方面，央行行长潘功胜表示，2026年将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用 降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。今年降准降息还有一定的空间。要继续维护好金融市场的平稳 运行。做好预期管理，保持人民币汇率在合理均衡水平上的基本稳定。加强债券市场、外汇市场、货币市场、票 据市场、黄金市场监督管理。建立在特定情景下向非银机构提供流动性的机制性安排。继续用好支持资本市场的 两项货币政策工具，支持资本市场稳定发展。国有六大行集体发布公告，落实个人消费贷款财政贴息政策，优化 相关服务。消费贷贴息政策执行期间，部分优质客户在享受贴息后，消费贷实际利率可进入"2%"区间。海外方面， 美国2025年第三季度GDP终值年化环比增长4.4%，高于4.3%的初值，创下近两年来最快增速。美联储青睐的通胀 指标——11月核心PCE物价指数同比上涨2.8%，环比上涨0.2%，均符合预期。美国上周初请失业金人数20万人， 低于预期的21万人。 指数震荡收涨。现货市场，A股三大指数震荡收涨，上证指数涨0.14%收于4122.58点，创业 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期：2026/1/23 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 2.09%报 4938.40 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 3.86%报 96.22 美元/盎司。 2. 美油主力合约收跌 1.57%，报 59.67 美元/桶；布油主力合约跌 1.39%，报 6 ...

近日，银行间市场交易商协会通报了2025年度银行间债券市场违规行为自律查处情况。 交易商协会表示，查处了多类新型违规行为，及时遏制破窗效应。首次查处金融债低价承销违 规，防范承销发行"内卷式"竞争；首次查处证券公司投资顾问安排债券代持、协助非市场化发行 债券等违规；首次惩戒评级公司违反独立性和一致性原则展业，推动评级行业回归客观中立本 位；首次对承销机构母子公司协同展业中存在的违规问题予以处理；首次对债券承销与贷款业务 未有效隔离的问题立案调查。 持续完善自律规则，推动业务规范与自律查处相互促进。承销发行环节发布3项专门通知，重点 规范发行定价扭曲、非市场化发行及低价承销等问题；交易环节强化全流程管控，修订债券交易 自律规则，制定交易信息保存细则，出台估值业务指引，发文规范投顾业务；存续期强化募集资 金管理及信息披露要求，发布专项通知，明晰募集资金管理责任边界，推进信息披露制度体系修 订。 交易商协会表示，下一步将在人民银行指导下，聚焦银行间债券市场突出问题和薄弱环节，继续 严惩危害市场平稳运行的各类违规行为，持续净化市场生态，助力银行间债券市场高质量发展。 此外，2024年交易商协会作出自律处分88家（人） ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - Inflation is a prominent narrative. China will continue to boost consumption and promote "anti-involution." The central bank has cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year. The RMB exchange rate is expected to continue to float bidirectionally [2] - There is a certain differentiation in domestic and overseas economic climates. Overseas economic climate has been declining since October, while China's exports and new orders remain positive. China's foreign trade is accelerating its recovery, and its economic data in December is generally better. The US economic data is mixed, with increasing expectations of interest rate cuts [3] - Currently, focus on non-ferrous metals and precious metals with high certainty. There are opportunities for low-valued commodities to catch up in price. Pay attention to the short - term emotional risks of the new energy sector, the development of the Iranian situation, the "anti-involution" space of chemical products, weather conditions for agricultural products, and opportunities to buy precious metals at low prices [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Central Economic Work Conference emphasized boosting consumption and "anti-involution." The 2026 PBOC work conference focused on promoting high - quality economic development and reasonable price recovery, and cut the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools. The geopolitical situation between Iran and Venezuela has tightened, and the CME will change the margin setting method for precious metal contracts [2] - There is a differentiation in domestic and overseas economic climates. China's foreign trade is improving, with exports and imports in December exceeding expectations. The official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in December are in the expansion range. The US economic data is mixed, with the ISM manufacturing index falling, non - farm payrolls missing expectations, but overall economic improvement according to the Fed's Beige Book. There are increasing expectations of US interest rate cuts [3] Commodity Analysis - Focus on non - ferrous metals and precious metals. Non - ferrous metals have long - term supply constraints, and aluminum and nickel are preferred within the sector. Pay attention to short - term emotional risks in the new energy sector. The US will "sell on behalf" of Venezuelan oil, and the Iranian situation has temporarily cooled. There is "anti - involution" space in the chemical sector, and agricultural products are affected by weather and pig diseases. There are opportunities to buy precious metals at low prices [4] Strategy - The strategy for commodities and stock index futures is neutral [5] Important News - As of the end of December, M2, M1, and M0 have different year - on - year growth rates, and there is a net cash injection for the whole year. The balance of local and foreign currency loans and RMB loans has increased year - on - year [7] - The PBOC has cut the interest rates of re - loans and rediscounts by 0.25 percentage points since January 19, 2026. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year [7] - The US Supreme Court has not ruled on the legality of Trump's tariff policy. Fed officials have different stances on interest rates. Trump has no current plan to fire Powell, but the situation is still uncertain. The Iranian situation has temporarily cooled, and international oil prices have fallen [7] - Japan's largest opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party, has decided to form a new political party with the Komeito Party [7]

Group 1 - The silver futures market is currently experiencing a slight decline, trading at 22,615 CNY/kg, down 0.69% from the opening price of 22,980 CNY/kg, with a trading range between 22,007 CNY/kg and 23,123 CNY/kg [1] - The Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index rose to 12.6 in January, marking the highest level since September of the previous year, indicating unexpected expansion in manufacturing activity [2] - Over 23% of surveyed firms reported an increase in activity, while approximately 11% reported a decrease, suggesting a mixed outlook for the manufacturing sector [2] Group 2 - New orders and shipments have significantly increased, contributing to the overall growth in manufacturing activity, although the employment index showed a decline [2] - The inventory index has dropped to its lowest level since July 2024, indicating potential supply chain constraints [2] - Despite a slight slowdown in price increases, the overall price index remains well above long-term averages, reflecting ongoing inflationary pressures in the manufacturing sector [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The RMB is expected to be range - bound and may show stronger characteristics. The current economic situation shows that the economic expectation gap is favorable for the RMB, the Sino - US interest rate difference is neutral, and trade policy uncertainty is neutral. If US inflation or employment data weakens further, the RMB may test the 6.90 - 6.95 range. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of export settlement and changes in global risk appetite [47]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Quantity - price and Policy Signals 3.1.1 Quantity - price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with the volatility on the Put side higher than that on the Call side, and the Put - side volatility slightly decreasing [4]. 3.1.2 Policy Observation - The value of the counter - cyclical factor has shifted downwards, and the negative adjustment signal has strengthened. The three - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread fluctuates [9]. 3.2 Fundamentals and Views 3.2.1 Macro 3.2.1.1 Interest Rate and Liquidity - There is a divergence in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account balance on January 7 was 783.5 billion (- 89.2 billion), and the reserve balance of deposit institutions in November was 2.87 trillion (- 65.6 billion) [16]. 3.2.1.2 US Economic Data - Employment authority has declined, non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, and inflation in November was lower than expected, supporting subsequent interest rate cuts. Economic expectations have been revised upwards, with a slight decline in PMI and a slight increase in real estate sales in November [18]. 3.2.1.3 Fed Chair Candidates - Trump has no plan to replace Powell for now and is open to the choice of the next Fed chair. Different candidates have different views on interest rate policies, such as Christopher Waller advocating for a cautious interest rate cut, Kevin Warsh calling for a large - scale balance sheet reduction to create room for rate cuts [19][20]. 3.2.1.4 Inflation - The CPI performance in the US in December was moderate, with a slight increase in the contribution of food and core commodities, a decline in the contribution of crude oil, and a decline in the contribution of core services. The pricing of interest rate cuts changed little after the data release [21]. 3.2.1.5 Non - farm Payrolls - In December, non - farm payrolls showed a K - shaped divergence. Employment in trade, transportation, construction, and manufacturing decreased, while employment in services, education, and healthcare continued to increase, and government employment also increased. The unemployment rate was affected by different factors, and the employment environment was deteriorating [24]. 3.2.1.6 Chinese Economy - There is a structural divergence in the Chinese economy. In November, imports and exports showed resilience, but fixed - asset investment faced pressure and consumption slowed down. Against the background of increasing pressure, the government's policy window has loosened, and the gap between fundamentals and sentiment has widened [25]. 3.2.1.7 December Exports - The characteristics of re - exports continued. Exports to the US and Canada decreased, while exports to ASEAN, India, and South Africa increased. Items such as automobiles, mechanical and electrical products, integrated circuits, and high - tech products showed obvious resilience, as did exports of raw materials such as aluminum and steel [27]. 3.2.2 2026 Monetary Policy - The policy focuses on reducing the re - lending rate by 25BP, setting up a 1 - trillion RMB re - loan for private enterprises, adding 400 billion RMB in technological transformation quotas, and reducing inventory of commercial real estate. The policy features "moderate in aggregate and precise in structure", and the RMB exchange rate maintains strong resilience supported by high - level foreign exchange reserves and stable settlement - sales surpluses [30]. 3.3 Core Content Interpretation 3.3.1 Settlement and Sale of Foreign Exchange - In December 2025, the bank's foreign exchange settlement was significantly higher than its sale. The annual pattern was a net settlement. The settlement rate of received foreign exchange rose to 61.01%, and the purchase rate of paid - out foreign exchange fell to 55.41% [35][36]. - In December 2025, the bank's agent for overseas receipts was higher than payments, showing a surplus. The annual situation was a net inflow. In the current account, the contribution of goods trade was significant, increasing from about 726.66 billion in November to about 1259.22 billion in December, strongly driving the surplus in receipts and payments [43]. 3.3.2 Overall View - The RMB is expected to be range - bound against the US dollar. If US inflation or employment data weakens further, the RMB may show stronger characteristics, and there is a possibility of testing the 6.90 - 6.95 range in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of export settlement and changes in global risk appetite [47]. 3.3.3 2026 Scenario Deduction - Throughout 2026, there will be important events such as Fed chair candidate announcements, FOMC meetings, government work reports, and national two - sessions. These events will affect policy expectations, inventory cycles, and economic re - balancing, as well as lead to tariff games and changes in the Fed's stance [50].

邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 主要观点： 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758786 东海期货分析师：明道雨 数据及事件要点： 1、2026年1月15日，央行举行新闻发布会。人民银行推出八项结构性货币政策措施，并强调在实施过程 中，将与财政贴息、担保和风险成本分担等财政政策协同配合。正通过下调结构性货币政策工具利率、 扩大再贷款额度、优化政策工具结构等多项举措，进一步加大对实体经济的精准支持力度，为经济稳定 增长和结构转型营造宽松适宜的货币金融环境。 2、12月新增人民币贷款9100亿元，预期8000亿元，前值3900亿元。12月社会融资规模增量为22075亿 元，预期19000亿元，前值为24926亿元，同比少增6462亿元；12月末，社会融资规模存量为442.12万亿 元，同比增长8.3%，较上月下降0.2%。12月M2同比增长8.5%，预期8.0%，前值8.0%，M2较上月上升 0.5%。 主要观点： 12月新增人民币贷款9100亿元，预期8000亿元，前值3900亿元；新增社会融资规模22075亿元，预期 19000亿元，前值为24 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the document. Core Views of the Report - The central bank has lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The bond market fluctuations are concentrated in the ultra - long - term, and the A - share market is expected to maintain a stable growth trend in 2026. The market sentiment of treasury bond futures remains oscillating and bearish since mid - last year, with short - term resilience and a possible slight recovery in the long - term [7][9]. - Affected by the expected US biodiesel policy, rapeseed oil is expected to shift from a recent weak trend to a wide - range oscillating trend. The valuation of PX has returned with the cost - end adjustment, and the supply is expected to gradually loosen. PTA's polyester production cut plan has increased, and the actual implementation needs attention. MEG's supply pressure has eased, and the short - term is expected to rebound strongly [10][81]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Treasury Bonds - Central bank policies: Lowered the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points, with the one - year re - loan rate dropping to 1.25%. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year [7]. - Market analysis: The bond market fluctuations are concentrated in the ultra - long - term. Treasury bond futures maintain an oscillating and bearish view since mid - last year. Short - term has resilience, and the long - term may have a slight recovery. It is recommended to conduct 30 - 10 spread compression trading and long - position substitution in the short - term, and continue to recommend hedging at high levels, long - spread trading, and positive spread trading in the medium - term [9]. 2. Rapeseed Oil - Policy impact: The expected US biodiesel policy is expected to boost global oil and fat consumption and support the international rapeseed oil price. The domestic rapeseed oil market is in a situation of strong current reality but weak expectations, and it is expected to shift from a weak trend to a wide - range oscillating trend [10]. 3. PX, PTA, MEG - PX: The valuation has returned with the cost - end adjustment, and the supply is expected to gradually loosen. Overseas processing fee hedging has entered the market, and domestic PX factories' hedging positions have increased. The downstream PTA and polyester's future production is expected to decline [81]. - PTA: The processing fee is at a high level. The supply side's production increase space is limited, and the polyester production cut plan has further increased. The actual implementation needs to be observed. The unilateral price has limited downward space [82]. - MEG: The short - term is expected to rebound strongly, and short positions should be closed. Attention should be paid to the spring maintenance implementation of coal - chemical ethylene glycol plants, and long the 5 - 9 spread at low levels [82]. 4. Other Commodities - Gold: Safe - haven sentiment has rebounded [16]. - Copper: The strengthening of the US dollar restricts price increases [16]. - Zinc: It is easy to rise but difficult to fall [16]. - Lead: The decrease in LME inventory supports the price [16]. - Tin: It is consolidating at a high level [16]. - Aluminum: Slightly under pressure [16]. - Alumina: Oscillating downward [16]. - Platinum: Oscillating upward [16]. - Palladium: Following the upward oscillation [16]. - Nickel: There is a game between industrial and secondary funds, and it operates in a wide - range oscillation [16]. - Stainless steel: The price center of gravity is lifted by ferronickel, and the market is speculating on Indonesian policies [16]. - Lithium carbonate: With inventory reduction and increased purchasing willingness, there may be support at the bottom [16]. - Industrial silicon: Downstream production cuts, and it is advisable to short at high levels [16]. - Polysilicon: In an oscillating state [16]. - Iron ore: The valuation is high, and it is necessary to be cautious about chasing up [16]. - Rebar: Oscillating repeatedly [16]. - Hot - rolled coil: Oscillating repeatedly [16]. - Ferrosilicon: The raw material cost is loosening, and it oscillates in a wide range [16]. - Silicomanganese: The demand side is slightly tightening, and it oscillates in a wide range [16]. - Coke: Oscillating at a high level [16]. - Coking coal: Oscillating at a high level [16]. - Steam coal: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the price is adjusted narrowly in the short term [16]. - Log: Oscillating repeatedly [16]. - Rubber: Oscillating weakly [16]. - Synthetic rubber: Oscillating at a high level [16]. - LLDPE: The production of standard products remains at a low level, and spot transactions have weakened [16]. - PP: The monomer prices continue to diverge, and the cost support is relatively strong [16]. - Caustic soda: Oscillating weakly [16]. - Pulp: Oscillating weakly [16]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable [16]. - Methanol: Oscillating and falling following the commodity index [16]. - Urea: Oscillating in the short term and the central price is expected to rise in the medium term [16]. - Styrene: Oscillating in the short term [16]. - Soda ash: The spot market has little change [16]. - LPG: The short - term supply is tight, and geopolitical disturbances are strong [128]. - Propylene: The spot supply and demand are tightening, and the trend is strong [129]. - PVC: Oscillating weakly [16]. - Fuel oil: The night - session decline has paused the upward trend [16]. - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Turning to decline, and the spot high - low sulfur spread in the overseas market continues to shrink [16]. - Container Freight Index (European Line): Oscillating weakly; pay attention to the resumption of shipping expectations for the far - month contracts [16]. - Short - fiber: In a short - term oscillating market [16]. - Bottle chips: In a short - term oscillating market [16]. - Offset printing paper: Consider closing short positions opportunistically [16]. - Pure benzene: Oscillating mainly in the short term [16]. - Palm oil: The sentiment in the oil and fat sector has warmed up as the US biodiesel policy is approaching implementation [16]. - Soybean oil: The rebound height is limited due to the lack of soybean - related themes [16]. - Soybean meal: Wait and see, pending the progress of China - Canada trade consultations [16]. - Soybean: Rebounding and oscillating [16]. - Corn: Pay attention to the spot price [16]. - Sugar: Mainly operating weakly [16]. - Cotton: Continuing the adjustment trend [16]. - Eggs: The spot market is profitable, and the sentiment for far - month contracts has weakened [16]. - Hogs: The demand expectation has been priced in advance [16]. - Peanuts: Oscillating [16].