宏观 消息 1、央行公告称，7月17日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了4505亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率为1.4%，投标量 4505亿元，中标量4505亿元。Wind数据显示，当日900亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放3605亿元。 2、国家统计局数据显示，6月，全国城镇不包含在校生的16-24岁劳动力失业率为14.5%，较上月下降0.4个百分点； 全国城镇不包含在校生的25-29岁劳动力失业率为6.7%，较上月下降0.3个百分点；全国城镇不包含在校生的30-59岁 劳动力失业率为4.0%，较上月上升0.1个百分点。其中，全国城镇不包含在校生的16-24岁、25-29岁劳动力失业率已 连续4个月下降。 3、外资机构集体上调中国2025年全年GDP增速预测。其中，摩根士丹利将今年中国实质GDP增长预测从4.5%上调至 4.8%，高盛将增长预测由4.6%上调至4.7%，瑞银将增长预测由4%上调至4.7%。 4、中共住房和城乡建设部党组召开理论学习中心组学习 （扩大）会议强调，要把城市更新摆在更加突出位置 ，统筹 实施好一系列民生工程、安全工程、发展工程。加快构建房地产发展新模式，稳步推进城中村和危旧房改造 ...

Economic Overview - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the differentiation between new and old economic drivers in the context of China's economic performance, with a GDP of 66.05 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.3% [1] - Fixed asset investment increased by 2.8%, while real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 11.2% [1] - Industrial added value for June grew by 6.8% year-on-year, and retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.8% [1] Stock Market Insights - The U.S. stock indices experienced a general decline, with the communication sector leading gains and the coal sector facing losses, while market turnover reached 1.64 trillion yuan [2] - The financing balance increased by 9.738 billion yuan to 1.872324 trillion yuan, indicating a favorable environment for long-term investments in the capital market [2] - A-shares are considered to have high investment value, particularly the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 indices, which are expected to benefit from supportive policies [2] Bond Market Analysis - The yield on the 10-year government bond fell to 1.6575%, with the central bank conducting a net injection of 173.5 billion yuan to maintain liquidity [3] - The U.S. CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, raising concerns about inflation and trade tensions, which affected U.S. Treasury yields [3] - The central bank is expected to maintain a supportive monetary policy, which may provide some support for bond prices amid increasing global economic uncertainties [3] Lithium Carbonate Market - Weekly lithium carbonate production decreased by 644 tons to 18,123 tons, with upstream production cuts potentially affecting future output expectations [4] - Demand for lithium materials is projected to grow, with phosphate iron lithium production expected to increase by 3% in July [4] - Market sentiment is improving, but there are pressures from hedging activities and no signs of upstream production cuts, suggesting a volatile market environment [4] Consumer Goods and Retail - In June, retail sales of consumer goods reached 42.287 billion yuan, growing by 4.8% year-on-year, with non-automotive retail sales also increasing by 4.8% [8] - For the first half of the year, total retail sales amounted to 245.458 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.0% [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Trump used high - tariff threats last week but signaled negotiation on Monday, showing tariffs as a negotiation strategy, and the three major US stock indexes closed slightly higher [3] - China's June financial data shows that the social financing scale and RMB loans have improved year - on - year, and the import and export data shows signs of stabilization, indicating overall economic development [3] - The A - share market showed a shrinking trading volume, with the market transitioning from large - financial stocks to resource stocks. The adjustment of the banking sector drove up the individual - stock profit - making effect, but short - term chasing risks should be watched out for [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Analysis - **Domestic Financial Data**: In the first half of this year, China's social financing scale increment was 22.83 trillion yuan, 4.74 trillion yuan more than the same period last year; RMB loans increased by 12.92 trillion yuan. At the end of June, the M2 balance increased by 8.3% year - on - year. The central bank will continue a moderately loose monetary policy [1] - **Domestic Trade Data**: In the first half of this year, China's total value of goods trade imports and exports was 21.79 trillion yuan, a record high for the same period, with exports growing by 7.2% and imports by 2.3% [1] - **Overseas Trade News**: Trump said the US will negotiate on tariffs with other countries and is open to trade negotiations with Europe. The EU will also discuss trade issues with the US, and the US has reached some trade agreements [1] - **Stock Market Performance**: In the spot market, the three major A - share indexes showed mixed trends. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27% to 3519.65 points, while the ChiNext Index fell 0.45%. Most sector indexes rose, with machinery, public utilities, and household appliances leading the gains, and real estate, media, and non - bank finance sectors leading the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fell slightly below 1.5 trillion yuan. In overseas markets, the three major US stock indexes closed slightly higher, with the Nasdaq rising 0.27% to 20640.33 points [2] - **Futures Market Situation**: In the futures market, the current - month contract will be delivered this Friday, and the basis is converging. The trading volume and open interest of index futures decreased simultaneously [2] 2. Strategy - Trump's tariff strategy and the positive domestic economic data led to a slightly higher close of US stocks and a shrinking - volume A - share market. The market transitioned, and short - term chasing risks should be noted [3] 3. Macro - economic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][8][10] 4. Spot Market Tracking Charts - **Stock Index Performance**: On July 14, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.27% to 3519.65 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.11% to 10684.52 points, the ChiNext Index fell 0.45% to 2197.07 points, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.07% to 4017.67 points, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.00% to 2757.81 points, the CSI 500 Index fell 0.10% to 6020.86 points, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.02% to 6462.31 points [13] - Other charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [6][14] 5. Futures Market Tracking Charts - **Position and Volume**: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM index futures decreased. For example, the open interest of IF was 80048 (down 83463), and the trading volume was 263468 (down 19160) [6][18] - **Basis**: The basis of index futures showed different changes. For example, the current - month contract basis of IF was - 0.21 (up 12.61) [6][41] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of index futures also had various changes. For example, the spread between the next - month and current - month contracts of IF was - 14.60 (up 3.40) [6][47]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The inter - bank market's funding situation remained loose on Thursday, with overnight rates oscillating at a low level around 1.36%. The 7 - day weighted average rate dropped 3.79bp to 1.4674%. The central bank's liquidity injection is expected to stay loose due to external uncertainties from trade frictions, but the scope for further loosening of the funding situation is limited as long - term bond yields are relatively low and the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio has risen above 108% [4]. - The stock index continued to fluctuate and rise. The US - Vietnam trade agreement may have a negative impact on China's re - export trade, while the lifting of export restrictions on China by three US chip design software suppliers will boost the relevant A - share electronics sector. In the short term, the stock index may present a volatile pattern due to shrinking trading volume and lackluster domestic and foreign positive factors. In the long term, the Politburo meeting in late July will set the policy tone for the second half of the year. Given the possible deterioration of real estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, policies are expected to further support domestic demand. Additionally, the uncertain US tariff policy, the approaching Fed rate - cut time, and changes in overseas liquidity and geopolitical patterns will bring phased trading opportunities for the stock index [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.51, down 4.43bp; DR007 at 1.91, down 3.79bp; GC001 at 1.15, down 20.00bp; GC007 at 1.49, down 1.50bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.61, down 1.35bp; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.34, down 0.50bp; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.49, up 0.50bp; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.65, up 0.10bp; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.30, up 4.00bp [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 572 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 5093 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4521 billion yuan [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 closed at 3968, up 0.62%; SSE 50 at 2725, up 0.07%; CSI 500 at 5923, up 0.50%; CSI 1000 at 6343, up 0.53%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 13098 billion yuan, a decrease of 672 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed higher, with consumer electronics, biopharmaceuticals, electronic components, chemical pharmaceuticals, batteries, and traditional Chinese medicine sectors leading the gains, while shipbuilding and mining sectors leading the losses [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF当月 closed at 3947, up 0.7%; IH当月 at 2708, up 0.2%; IC当月 at 5874, up 0.3%; IM当月 at 6279, up 0.3%. IF trading volume was 73590, up 3.9%, and its open interest was 238967, down 0.2%; IH trading volume was 34173, down 8.3%, and its open interest was 80640, down 2.3%; IC trading volume was 64956, down 0.8%, and its open interest was 220451, up 0.7%; IM trading volume was 162960, down 1.7%, and its open interest was 321768, up 0.8% [5]. - **Premium and Discount Situation**: IF升贴水 was 13.16% for the current - month contract, 8.57% for the next - quarter contract, 5.90% for the current - quarter contract, and 4.85% for the next - month contract; IH升贴水 was 1.87% for the current - month contract; IC升贴水 was 14.74% for the current - month contract, 12.12% for the next - quarter contract, 10.16% for the current - quarter contract, and 19.99% for the next - month contract; IM升贴水 was 13.19% for the current - month contract, 15.26% for the next - quarter contract, 24.26% for the current - quarter contract, and 18.07% for the next - month contract [7].

Market Performance - The majority of government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.28% to 120.740, the 10-year main contract up by 0.10% to 109.005, the 5-year main contract increasing by 0.06% to 106.205, and the 2-year main contract down by 0.01% to 102.488 [1] - The yields on major interbank bonds mostly declined, with the 30-year government bond yield down by 0.9 basis points to 1.8520%, the 10-year policy bank bond yield down by 0.85 basis points to 1.7175%, the 10-year government bond yield down by 0.25 basis points to 1.6435%, and the 2-year government bond yield up by 0.1 basis points to 1.3660% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a fixed-rate reverse repurchase operation of 131 billion yuan for 7 days at an interest rate of 1.40%, with a total bid amount of 131 billion yuan and a successful bid amount of 131 billion yuan [2] - On the same day, 406.5 billion yuan of reverse repos matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 275.5 billion yuan [2] - After the month-end, the funding conditions for banks have returned to a loose state, with overnight pledged repo rates dropping over 14 basis points to 1.36%, and seven-day pledged repo rates declining over 37 basis points [2] Operational Suggestions - As the funding conditions turn loose at the beginning of the month, the overall bond market has rebounded, but there is currently a lack of momentum to break previous highs [3] - Key points to monitor include whether funding rates can further decline, the subsequent fundamental conditions, and whether the central bank will announce government bond trading situations [3] - For government bond futures strategy, it is suggested to appropriately allocate long positions during adjustments, take profit near previous highs, and pay attention to economic data and funding trends [3]

Core Viewpoint - The successful launch of the "Silver Insurance and Futures" project for corn in Tacheng, Xinjiang, marks the first implementation of this initiative in the region, aimed at providing comprehensive support for farmers' income through a collaborative model involving banks, insurance, and futures companies [1][2]. Group 1: Project Overview - The "Silver Insurance and Futures" project is part of the 2025 "Farmers' Income Guarantee Plan" initiated by the Dalian Commodity Exchange, focusing on the "insurance + futures" model to support farmers [1][2]. - The project has a total insured area of 30,000 acres and a project amount of 48 million yuan, with the insurance policy issued to corn farmers completed by June 22 [2]. Group 2: Operational Model - The project employs a "leading enterprise + bank + insurance + futures" model, which helps farmers secure financing and sales through forward purchase orders and income insurance [2][3]. - The model provides four layers of protection for farmers: income insurance, forward purchase contracts, credit support based on the first two protections, and secondary pricing rights after grain sales [2]. Group 3: Financial Implications - This model enhances the safety of agricultural loans for banks by providing a comprehensive risk compensation mechanism, improving the quality and efficiency of financial services [3]. - The China Construction Bank is actively promoting this model to support rural revitalization and enhance the market-based risk-sharing and compensation mechanisms for agricultural loans [3]. Group 4: Strategic Importance - Xinjiang is positioned as a key area for high-quality corn production under the national "14th Five-Year Plan," leveraging its unique resources to build a comprehensive supply chain from high-yield planting to deep processing [4]. - The successful implementation of the "Silver Insurance and Futures" project is expected to pave the way for innovative financial services and contribute to the high-quality development of rural revitalization [4].

6月24日，国家数据局举办"数据要素×"系列新闻发布会，中国人民银行、中国证监会有关负责人出席，介 绍开展"数据要素×"三年行动计划取得的积极成效，并对下一阶段重点工作做出部署。 来看发布会要点： 1.中国人民银行将研究制定新阶段金融科技发展规划，出台深化运用金融科技推动金融数字化智能化转 型的政策文件。 2.中国证监会将数据要素作为新质生产力，稳步推进数据要素在资本市场的深度融合与创新应用。 3.今年的"数据要素×"大赛，希望通过融合环保、气象、金融等多维度数据，构建数据模型来评估金融活 动的环境和社会风险，更好发挥资本市场的枢纽作用，引导更多资源要素向绿色、低碳领域聚集。 央行将研究制定新阶段金融科技发展规划 数据要素市场建设还处于起步阶段，制度规则尚待完善，发展路径有待探索。近年来，国家数据局会同中国人 民银行、中国证监会、中国气象局等部门部署开展了金融服务、气象等领域"数据要素×"的试点，通过试点建 设，加快破解行业内数据汇聚、流通、使用等环节堵点卡点难点。 数据要素为金融行业发展提供支撑。中国人民银行科技司副司长周祥昆指出，依托"数据要素×"行动计划，人 民银行聚焦提升金融服务水平、提高金融抗风险能 ...

数据要素×金融怎样做？ 6月24日，国家数据局举办"数据要素×"系列新闻发布会，中国人民银行、中国证监会有关负责人出席， 介绍开展"数据要素×"三年行动计划取得的积极成效，并对下一阶段重点工作做出部署。 来看发布会要点： 1.中国人民银行将研究制定新阶段金融科技发展规划，出台深化运用金融科技推动金融数字化智能化转 型的政策文件。 2.中国证监会将数据要素作为新质生产力，稳步推进数据要素在资本市场的深度融合与创新应用。 3.今年的"数据要素×"大赛，希望通过融合环保、气象、金融等多维度数据，构建数据模型来评估金融 活动的环境和社会风险，更好地发挥资本市场的枢纽作用，引导更多资源要素向绿色、低碳领域聚集。 将研究制定新阶段金融科技发展规划 数据要素市场建设还处于起步阶段，制度规则尚待完善，发展路径有待探索。近年来，国家数据局会同 中国人民银行、中国证监会、中国气象局等部门部署开展了金融服务、气象等领域"数据要素×"的试 点，通过试点建设，加快破解行业内数据汇聚、流通、使用等环节堵点卡点难点。 数据要素为金融行业发展提供支撑。中国人民银行科技司副司长周祥昆指出，依托"数据要素×"行动计 划，中国人民银行聚焦提升金融 ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监详可【2012】31号 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/6/20 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 (bp) | | | DRO01 | 1.37 | -0.06 | DR007 | 1.54 | 1.75 | | | GC001 | 1.28 | -34.50 | GC007 | 1.56 | -8.00 | | स्ट | SHBOR 3M | 1.63 | 0.00 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | -10.00 | | 而 | 1年期国债 | 1.36 | 0.25 | 5年期国债 | 1.48 | 0.45 | | 市 | 10年期国债 | 1.64 | 0.50 | 10年期美债 | 0.00 | -1.00 | 回顾:央行昨日开展了2035亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利率1.40%,投标 量2035 ...

Financial Policy and Market Developments - The People's Bank of China announced eight significant financial opening measures at the 2025 Lujiazui Forum, including the establishment of an interbank market trading report library and a digital RMB international operation center [3] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) introduced a "1+6" policy to deepen the reform of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, aiming to enhance market attractiveness and competitiveness [3][4] - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) will implement a package of foreign exchange innovation policies in the free trade pilot zone, including optimizing international trade settlement [3][4] Regulatory and Institutional Support - The Financial Regulatory Bureau and Shanghai Municipal Government jointly released an action plan to support the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center, promoting innovation in technology finance and cross-border finance [3][4] - The CSRC announced that starting from October 9, 2025, qualified foreign investors will be allowed to participate in on-market ETF options trading, aimed at expanding investment opportunities for foreign institutions [3][4] Market Expansion and Investment Opportunities - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will expand the range of commodities available for qualified foreign institutional investors, including natural rubber and lead futures contracts [4] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is drafting guidelines to support the listing of unprofitable technology companies, enhancing the inclusivity and adaptability of the capital market [3][4] International Financial Cooperation - The Shanghai-Hong Kong International Financial Center Collaborative Development Action Plan was signed, supporting the optimization of free trade account functions and encouraging the use of RMB for cross-border transactions [4] - The Central Financial Committee issued opinions to accelerate the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center, promoting high-quality development of multi-level equity markets [4]