1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [2][5][8] 2. Report's Core View - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season will be in a supply - loose pattern, and the domestic cotton price will be under pressure in the medium - long term; the upward space of sugar price is limited due to the expected increase in supply; the pulp supply pressure still exists in the second half of the year, and the terminal demand improvement is limited [2][4][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,875 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.07%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,282 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 15,295 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton. In June 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were 27.315 billion US dollars, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.29% and a month - on - month increase of 4.22% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the July USDA report is bearish as it raises global cotton production and ending stocks. There is insufficient weather - related narrative on the supply side, and the global cotton market will be supply - loose in the 25/26 season. Domestically, the rapid depletion of commercial cotton stocks and weather disturbances support the Zhengzhou cotton price in the short term, but the increase in domestic cotton planting area and the weak demand in the off - season limit the upward space. In the long term, the new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress the cotton price [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Although the short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton is strong, the medium - long - term cotton price is expected to be under pressure [2] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,817 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (+0.12%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,060 yuan/ton, unchanged, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,905 yuan/ton, unchanged. In the second half of June, the sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region decreased more than expected, with a 12.86% year - on - year decline in cane crushing volume and a 12.98% decline in sugar production [2][3] Market Analysis - The raw sugar price is under long - term downward pressure, but there is a possibility of a short - term rebound. The domestic sugar sales progress is fast, and the industrial inventory is at a low level, but the expected increase in imports will limit the upward space of Zhengzhou sugar price [4] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term Zhengzhou sugar price is expected to fluctuate weakly in a range, and it is recommended to sell high and buy low. In the medium - long term, the view of shorting on rallies is maintained [5] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,244 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.19%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,950 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,215 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import pulp market showed different trends, with some prices rising slightly and some falling [6] Market Analysis - The pulp supply pressure still exists in the second half of the year, as the port inventory is high and the destocking is slow. The demand is weak both at home and abroad, and the improvement of terminal demand is limited [7] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The short - term pulp price is difficult to break away from the bottom due to the lack of positive drivers in the industry chain [8]