农产品日报 | 2026-01-09 郑棉期价高位回落，白糖延续窄幅震荡 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14740元/吨，较前一日变动-295元/吨，幅度-1.96%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15738元/吨，较前一日变动+164元/吨，现货基差CF05+998，较前一日变动+459；3128B棉全国均价15992元/ 吨，较前一日变动+208元/吨，现货基差CF05+1252，较前一日变动+503。 近期市场资讯，12月巴西棉出口量为45.2万吨，环比（40.2万吨）增加12.4%，同比（35.3万吨）增加28.2%，为有 记录以来最大出口量。从当月出口目的地看，中国是主要出口目的地，出口量占总量的32%；孟加拉其次，占比18%； 巴基斯坦排第三，占比10%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价高位回落。国际方面，12月USDA对于全球棉花供需数据调整不大，25/26年度全球棉花产需双减， 期末库存微幅增加。美棉产量继续小幅调增，经过两个月的调整后美棉累库压力明显加大。当前北半球新棉集中 上市，阶段性供应压力较大，而全球纺织终端消费仍疲软，美棉出口签约进度整体仍偏慢，短期IC ...

农产品日报 | 2026-01-07 郑棉期价再创新高，糖价走势依旧承压 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约14855元/吨，较前一日变动+200元/吨，幅度+1.36%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆 到厂价15487元/吨，较前一日变动+45元/吨，现货基差CF05+632，较前一日变动-155；3128B棉全国均价15711元/ 吨，较前一日变动+96元/吨，现货基差CF05+856，较前一日变动-104。 近期市场资讯，截至2025年12月25日，美国累计净签约出口2025/26年度棉花151.9万吨，达到年度预期出口量的 57.20%，累计装运棉花67.4万吨，装运率44.39%。其中陆地棉签约量为147.4万吨，装运64.2万吨，装运率43.58%。 皮马棉签约量为4.5万吨，装运3.2万吨，装运率70.90%。其中，中国累计签约进口2025/26年度美棉6.8万吨，占美 棉已签约量的4.51％；累计装运美棉2.6万吨，占美棉总装运量的3.88％，占中国已签约量的38.27％。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价延续强势。国际方面，12月USDA对于全球棉花供需数据调整不大，25/26年度全球 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [1] - Sugar: Neutral [4] - Pulp: Neutral [7] Group 2: Core Views - Cotton: The overall pattern of domestic and foreign cotton prices is divided, with a strong domestic and weak foreign situation. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure, and the demand side of domestic cotton is weakening marginally. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to be bullish [1] - Sugar: The global sugar market is in a state of surplus. The short - term decline of raw sugar is limited, and the long - term price is not overly pessimistic. Domestic sugar is in a situation of increasing supply and the price is expected to fluctuate and bottom out [3][4] - Pulp: Overseas supply is disturbed, and domestic demand is expected to recover moderately in the short - term. The price will fluctuate and be slightly strong, but the upward height depends on demand and inventory digestion [7] Group 3: Summary by Commodity Cotton - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 14,435 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,385 yuan/ton, up 267 yuan/ton. From December 19th to 25th, the US graded and inspected 129,200 tons of 2025/26 cotton, and 82.1% met the ICE cotton delivery requirements [1] - Market Analysis: The domestic and foreign cotton price trends are divided. Internationally, the US cotton inventory pressure increases, and the global textile consumption is weak. Domestically, cotton production increases, and the demand side is marginally weakening [1] - Strategy: Neutral to bullish. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to rise, but short - term high - level corrections should be vigilant [1] Sugar - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5253 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton. As of December 27, 2025/26, Thailand's cumulative sugar production was 1.2793 million tons, down 15.83% year - on - year [2] - Market Analysis: The global sugar market is in surplus. The short - term decline of raw sugar is limited, and the long - term price is not overly pessimistic. Domestic sugar supply is increasing seasonally, and the import pressure remains high [3][4] - Strategy: Neutral. The domestic sugar price is expected to fluctuate and bottom out [4] Pulp - Market News and Key Data: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5510 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan/ton. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5590 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Market Analysis: Overseas pulp mills have shutdown and maintenance news, and the European demand has improved. The domestic terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is high but showing a downward trend [6] - Strategy: Neutral. The short - term trend is expected to fluctuate and be slightly strong, depending on demand and inventory digestion [7]

现货偏紧，价格偏强 长江期货棉纺月报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-12-26 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 01 走势回顾：12月郑棉震荡偏强 02 供应端分析：新季全球供需平衡 03 需求端分析：下游需求韧性较强 04 逻辑与展望：现货偏紧，价格偏强 目 录 05 01 走势回顾：12月郑棉震荡偏强 01 12月棉、纱震荡偏强 数据来源：博易大师、中国棉花信息网、TTEB、IFIND、长江期货 Ø 12月郑棉震荡偏强。核心原因是今年现货销售顺利，销售进度明显高于往年。同时对下年度的新疆缩减种植面积有较大的预期。 Ø 棉纱方面，主要跟随棉花走势，但纺纱利润压缩。随着新疆产能的继续大幅扩张，对内地形成较大压制。 02 供应端分析：新季全球供需平衡 02 全球供需平衡表：供需平衡 | | 25/26 Dec 25 25/26 Nov 25 | | 23/24 | 22/23 | 21/22 | 20/21 | 环比 | 同比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

二 〇 二 五 年 度 报告导读： 截至 12 月 19 日当周，ICE 棉花维持低位波动，其中周二在原油下行和美棉出口数据持续不佳的情况 下，ICE 棉花 3 月合约一度跌破 63 美分/磅，不过受美国通胀数据提振降息预期以及空头回补影响，下半 周 ICE 棉花连续小幅反弹，收复了周二的大部分跌幅。目前来看，疲软的美棉出口数据使得 ICE 棉花仍然 缺乏上涨的驱动，不过由于基本面并没有新的利空，在外部市场风险偏好整体乐观的情况下，ICE 棉花暂 时守住了 63 美分/磅一线。 国内棉花期货和现货继续小幅走强，基差整体仍偏坚挺。相对稳定的高基差继续支撑棉花期货，不过 棉花仓单继续增加，而且新棉刚上市三个多月，2025/26 年度的国产棉的供应压力并没有完全释放，表现 为随着期价的上涨陆续有一些套保盘出现，这一定程度上限制了郑棉期货的上涨动能；另外下游的需求处 于淡季，对于全年的需求目前偏稳去看但是还需要持续观察，所以市场现在开始关注明年的种植情况可能 偏早了一些，春节后结合需求情况再讨论新年度的种植或更好。短期来看预计郑棉期货维持震荡偏强的走 势，但是上涨空间可能有限，注意现货基差的变化。 国 泰 君 安 期 ...

Group 1: Cotton Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral to bullish, suggesting to focus on opportunities to go long on the 05 contract on dips [3] Core View - The price of Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated upwards yesterday, breaking through the 14,000 integer mark. Globally, the USDA made minor adjustments to the global cotton supply and demand data this month, with both production and demand decreasing in the 2025/26 season and a slight increase in ending stocks. In the short term, ICE U.S. cotton will remain under pressure, but in the medium to long term, it is in a low - valuation range with limited further downside. Domestically, cotton production continues to increase in the 2025/26 season. Short - term supply is abundant, but the resistance to hedging on the futures market has weakened. The downstream demand is weak, but the cotton price downside is also limited [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 14,000 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton or 1.19% from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,884 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,060 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton. In India, the cotton listing volume on December 12, 2025/26 was about 42,000 tons of lint, and the CCI auctioned about 75,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - International: The USDA's adjustment to global cotton supply and demand data in the 25/26 season was small, with both production and demand decreasing and ending stocks slightly increasing. The U.S. cotton production increased slightly, and the inventory pressure increased. The short - term ICE U.S. cotton is under pressure, and the upward drive is unclear. Domestic: Cotton production continues to increase in the 25/26 season. Short - term supply is abundant, but the resistance to hedging on the futures market has weakened. The downstream demand is weak, but the cotton price downside is limited [2] Strategy - Neutral to bullish. Focus on opportunities to go long on the 05 contract on dips. Pay attention to the change of the cotton target price policy next year [3] Group 2: Sugar Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [7] Core View - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to be weak yesterday, hitting a new low in the night session. The global sugar supply surplus pattern in the 2025/26 season remains unchanged, and the short - to - medium - term international sugar price rebound space is limited. The fundamental driving force of Zhengzhou sugar is downward, but the short - term decline space is also limited [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract yesterday was 5207 yuan/ton, down 113 yuan/ton or 2.12% from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5360 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5295 yuan/ton, unchanged. As of December 15, 2025/26, 479 sugar mills in India were in operation, 6 more than the same period last year, and the sugar production was 7.79 million tons, an increase of 1.72 million tons or 28.34% [4] Market Analysis - The price of Zhengzhou sugar futures continued to be weak, hitting a new low. The short - term support for the raw sugar futures price to stop falling and rebound is limited by the unchanged global sugar supply surplus pattern. The fundamental driving force of Zhengzhou sugar is downward, but the short - term decline space is limited [5] Strategy - Neutral. Pay attention to the impact of the capital side on the futures market, and expect low - level consolidation [7] Group 3: Pulp Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [9] Core View - The price of pulp futures oscillated and closed higher yesterday. Overseas supply is disturbed, and the demand in Europe has improved to some extent. In China, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is at a historical high, but the recent port inventory has declined significantly, and the future expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp price to stabilize [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract yesterday was 5572 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton or 0.69% from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5565 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5090 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market price was mainly stable, with individual prices declining [7] Market Analysis - Overseas, there are continuous news of pulp mill shutdowns for maintenance, and the European demand has improved. In China, the terminal demand is insufficient, the paper industry is in a state of overcapacity, and the port inventory is at a historical high, but the recent port inventory has declined, and the future expansion of downstream paper production capacity may support the pulp price [8] Strategy - Neutral. The previous bearish factors have been digested, and the pulp futures price has risen strongly recently, but the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand situation will limit the upward space. Pay attention to the impact of the remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the futures market [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][6][9] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to continue range - bound oscillations. In the long - term, after seasonal pressure, cotton prices can be viewed optimistically due to increased domestic cotton consumption and low expected imports [3] - For sugar, the fundamental driving force is downward, but the current low valuation and sugar mills' willingness to support prices limit the short - term decline of Zhengzhou sugar. However, the possibility of new lows cannot be ruled out [6] - For pulp, recent pulp futures prices have risen strongly due to the digestion of previous negative factors, short - covering, and overseas supply disruptions. But the lack of substantial improvement in supply - demand may limit further price increases [9] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,860 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton (+0.58%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,835 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 975, down 75 from the previous day; the national average price was 15,013 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF01 + 1153, down 71 from the previous day [1] - In Pakistan, the demand of local yarn mills is weak, and the lint price is range - bound. The ginning mills are reluctant to sell high - grade inventory, and some low - grade resources offer opportunities for yarn mills to replenish stocks. The yarn mills face heavy operating pressure and squeezed profits. The 2025/26 annual spot price of the Karachi Cotton Association (KCA) on the 10th was stable at 15,500 rupees/mound [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the concentrated listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere brings short - term supply pressure, and weak global textile consumption will keep ICE US cotton under pressure. In the long - term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range with limited downward space but unclear upward drivers. Domestically, the 2025/26 domestic cotton is expected to increase in production. With the harvest nearing completion in Xinjiang, the cotton output forecast has risen again. In the short - term, the supply is abundant, and Zhengzhou cotton will be suppressed by hedging orders. The downstream demand is weak in the off - season, but improved spinning profits and manageable finished - product inventory limit the downward space of cotton prices [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate within a range. In the long - term, due to expanded downstream production capacity and increased domestic cotton consumption, and low expected imports, the supply - demand situation in the new year is not expected to be too loose. Pay attention to the changes in the cotton target price policy next year [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5,245 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton (-1.56%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,370 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of SR05 + 125, up 83 from the previous day; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,340 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a spot basis of SR05 + 95, up 83 from the previous day [4] - According to Williams, as of the week of December 10, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased from 53 to 44. The quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded was 1.5131 million tons, down 17.14% from the previous week. The quantity of high - grade raw sugar (VHP) decreased by 21.3%, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be exported at Santos Port decreased by 8.97%, and at Paranaguá Port decreased by 47.77% [4] Market Analysis - For raw sugar, the global bumper harvest suppresses the market, but the negative factors are mostly reflected in the price. There is limited short - term downward space, and no sign of a reversal in the short - to - medium term. For Zhengzhou sugar, domestic sugar production is expected to increase for the third year. The sugar mills in Guangxi have started crushing, and the supply is seasonally increasing. The import profit from Brazil is high, and the import volume from July to October was large. The control of syrup has tightened, but the import reduction in October was lower than expected [5] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The fundamental driving force is downward, but the low valuation and sugar mills' willingness to support prices limit the short - term decline of Zhengzhou sugar. Attention should be paid to the impact of capital on the market [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5,586 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton (+2.76%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,590 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP05 + 4, down 60 from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (U - needle and B - needle) was 5,115 yuan/ton, up 110 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP05 - 471, down 40 from the previous day [6] - The imported wood pulp spot market was strong. The futures price rose, and traders raised prices to improve profits. The downstream procurement was rational, and the trading volume was limited. The prices of imported softwood pulp in some regions rose by 50 - 120 yuan/ton, and those of imported hardwood pulp rose by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. The trading of imported natural pulp and chemical mechanical pulp was flat, and the prices were stable [7] Market Analysis - On the supply side, there are continuous news of overseas pulp mills' shutdowns and overhauls. Domtar permanently closed the Crofton paper mill with an annual production of 380,000 tons of Lion brand bleached softwood pulp, and Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill with a capacity of 650,000 tons of softwood pulp will be shut down temporarily. On the demand side, the October European port wood pulp inventory decreased, indicating improved demand. In China, although there is a large amount of finished paper production capacity, the terminal demand is insufficient, the paper mills' operating rate is low, and the inventory in domestic ports is at a historical high [8] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The recent strong rise in pulp futures prices is due to the digestion of previous negative factors, short - covering, and overseas supply disruptions. However, the lack of substantial improvement in supply - demand may limit further price increases. Attention should be paid to the impact of the remaining B - needle warehouse receipts on the market [9]

农产品日报 | 2025-12-11 郑棉持续震荡，糖价依旧承压 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13780元/吨，较前一日变动+40元/吨，幅度+0.29%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14830元/吨，较前一日变动-13元/吨，现货基差CF01+1050，较前一日变动-53；3128B棉全国均价15004元/吨， 较前一日变动+5元/吨，现货基差CF01+1224，较前一日变动-35。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA）最新发布的12月份全球棉花供需预测报告，2025/26年度全球棉花产量环 比调减；消费环比调减；叠加期初库存增加，本年度期末库存环比微增。从本年度主产棉国调整情况来看，总体 调整以美国为主，其他国家产消数据环比基本持平。2024/25年度供需预测中，全球棉花总产预期环比基本持平， 消费预期小幅调减，出口预期小幅减幅，上年度期末库存小幅增加。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价偏强震荡。国际方面，当前北半球新棉集中上市，阶段性供应压力较大，而全球纺织终端消费仍疲 软，短期ICE美棉仍将承压。中长期看，美棉已处于低估值区间，进一步下跌的空间预计不大，但向上驱动暂不 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][7][10] Group 2: Report Core Views - **Cotton**: In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to continue range - bound. In the long - term, with the expansion of downstream production capacity and low expected imports, the supply - demand situation may not be too loose after the seasonal pressure, and cotton prices can be viewed optimistically. Attention should be paid to the change of the cotton target price policy next year [3] - **Sugar**: The fundamental driving force is still downward, but the current valuation is low, and sugar mills at the beginning of the crushing season have the willingness to support prices. The short - term decline of Zhengzhou sugar is limited, but the impact of the capital side on the market should be noted [7] - **Pulp**: Due to the gradual digestion of previous negative factors, the pulp futures price has risen strongly recently. However, the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand side may limit the upward space of pulp prices. Attention should be paid to the impact of the remaining Russian needle warehouse receipts on the market [10] Group 3: Summary by Cotton - related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,750 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,847 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 15,009 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - Export: In October, Australia's cotton export volume was about 206,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.8% and a year - on - year increase of 35.8%. From August 2025 to July 2026, the cumulative export volume was about 549,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. China was the largest export destination, accounting for 32.6% [1] Market Analysis - International: USDA significantly increased the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season, while the consumption only slightly increased, leading to a significant rise in the global ending inventory. The sales pressure of US cotton has increased, and there is a possibility of export target reduction. Short - term ICE US cotton is under pressure, and in the long - term, it is in a low - valuation range [2] - Domestic: In the 2025/26 season, domestic cotton is expected to continue to increase in production. With the approaching end of cotton harvesting in Xinjiang, the supply is abundant in the short - term, and the upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton is restricted by hedging orders. The downstream demand is weak, but the improvement of spinning profit limits the downward space of cotton prices [2] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term range - bound, and optimistic in the long - term after seasonal pressure. Focus on the cotton target price policy next year [3] Group 4: Summary by Sugar - related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5337 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5410 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5345 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [4] - Export: Brazil exported 3.3023 million tons of sugar and molasses in November, a year - on - year decrease of 2.59% [4] - Sugar mill operation: From December 6th to 8th, 6 new sugar mills in Guangxi started production. As of now, 55 sugar mills have started production in the 2025/26 crushing season in Guangxi, 13 less than the same period last year [4] Market Analysis - International: The global high - yield pattern suppresses the raw sugar market, but the downward space is limited in the short - term, and there is no sign of reversal in the short - and medium - term [5] - Domestic: Domestic sugar production is expected to increase for the third year. The supply is increasing seasonally, and the import pressure remains high. The control of syrup has become stricter, but the import reduction in October was lower than expected [5][6] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term decline is limited, but the impact of the capital side should be noted [7] Group 5: Summary by Pulp - related Content Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2601 contract yesterday was 5392 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton from the previous day [8] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the price of Russian needle pulp was 5005 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton from the previous day [8] Market Analysis - Supply: There are continuous news of overseas pulp mills' shutdown and maintenance. Domtar permanently closed a paper mill, and Finns Group's Rauma pulp mill will have a temporary shutdown [9] - Demand: European port pulp inventory decreased in October, showing some improvement in demand. In China, there is over - capacity in the paper industry, low paper mill operating rates, and high port inventories [9] Strategy - Neutral. The upward space of pulp prices may be limited due to the lack of substantial improvement in the supply - demand side. Attention should be paid to the impact of the remaining Russian needle warehouse receipts [10]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [3][5][8] Report's Core View - Cotton prices are expected to continue range - bound in the short - term and are expected to be optimistic after seasonal pressure in the long - term. Sugar prices have a downward fundamental drive in the short - term with limited further decline and potential for a weak rebound, and may be unoptimistic in the long - term. Pulp prices have limited upside space due to unimproved supply - demand [3][5][8] Market News and Important Data Cotton - Futures: Yesterday, the closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,790 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.07%) from the previous day. Spot: 3128B cotton in Xinjiang had a factory price of 14,854 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,998 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton [1] - As of November 30, 2025/26, Pakistan's new - season seed cotton equivalent to lint was about 796,000 tons, down 1.1% year - on - year. Domestic mills bought about 666,000 tons, exported about 27,000 tons, and the unsold inventory was about 103,000 tons [1] Sugar - Futures: Yesterday, the closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5328 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton (-0.71%) from the previous day. Spot: In Nanning, Guangxi, the price was 5430 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5380 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [4] - As of November 30, 2025, 10 sugar mills in the province had started production (5 last year). 439,400 tons of sugarcane were crushed, producing 44,800 tons of sugar. The sales volume was 32,200 tons, with an inventory of 12,600 tons [4] Pulp - Futures: Yesterday, the closing price of pulp 2601 contract was 5496 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan/ton (+0.70%) from the previous day. Spot: In Shandong, the price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp was 5525 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5100 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [6] - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market continued to rise, with a slow market transaction [6] Market Analysis Cotton - Internationally, USDA raised the 2025/26 global cotton production significantly, while consumption increased slightly. End - of - season inventory rose and is in a stock - building phase. US cotton has increased sales pressure. In the short - term, ICE US cotton is under pressure; in the long - term, it has limited downward space but unclear upward drive [2] - Domestically, 2025/26 is expected to see increased cotton production. The supply is abundant in the short - term, and the upward movement of Zhengzhou cotton will be restricted by hedging. The downstream demand is weak, but the spinning profit has improved, and the downward space of the futures is also limited [2] Sugar - For raw sugar, Brazil's strong supply and India's expected production rebound have put pressure on the market. In the short - term, the downward space is limited; in the long - term, the rebound momentum is restricted [5] - For Zhengzhou sugar, the high import volume and the start of sugar mills in Guangxi have increased the short - term supply pressure [5] Pulp - In terms of supply, overseas pulp mills have announced shutdowns and production cuts. In terms of demand, European port inventory has decreased, but the domestic terminal demand is insufficient, and the port inventory is at a historical high [7] Strategy Cotton - Neutral. Expect range - bound in the short - term. Be optimistic about cotton prices after seasonal pressure in the long - term [3] Sugar - Neutral. The short - term downward space is limited, with potential for a weak rebound. The long - term outlook is not optimistic [5] Pulp - Neutral. The upward space is limited due to unimproved supply - demand. Attention should be paid to the impact of remaining Russian softwood pulp warehouse receipts on the market [8]