Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestically, in the fourth quarter, with new cotton hitting the market, the expected output is over 7.3 million tons, subjecting Zhengzhou cotton futures to significant hedging pressure. Consumption during the "Golden September and Silver October" period was lackluster, but the overall industrial chain showed slight improvement with gradually decreasing finished - product inventories. The price range is expected to be between 12,500 - 15,000 yuan/ton [1][38]. - Internationally, macro - factors still bring great uncertainty to the cotton market. The Fed may cut interest rates within the year, potentially supporting US cotton prices. Fundamentally, the supply of cotton in the Northern Hemisphere will gradually increase in the fourth quarter, while consumption remains stable, with no major fundamental contradictions. The operating range of US cotton is expected to be between 60 - 75 cents/pound [2][38]. - The recommended operation strategy for Zhengzhou cotton is mainly band trading [3][39]. 3) Summaries by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Review - In the third quarter of 2025, Zhengzhou cotton futures showed a trend of weakening in a range and then breaking down. The price of the main contract was roughly between 13,450 - 14,350 yuan/ton. Influenced by factors such as good cotton growth in Xinjiang, extension of the Sino - US tariff suspension period, and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the price fluctuated [5]. - In the third quarter of 2025, ICE US cotton showed a weakening trend in a range, with the main contract price between 65.8 - 69.50 cents/pound. Affected by factors like high Brazilian cotton exports, Indian tariff exemptions, and changes in US weather and USDA reports, the price fluctuated [6]. b) Domestic Market Analysis - **Supply**: Most institutions predict an increase in the cotton planting area in the 2024/25 season, mainly driven by the expansion in Xinjiang. The comprehensive meteorological conditions in the cotton - growing areas were favorable, laying a good foundation for an increase in yield. Different institutions have different yield forecasts, with the report's estimate ranging from 7.3 - 7.7 million tons. The final yield depends on the weather during the harvest period, but a bumper harvest is likely [8][10][11]. - **Seed - cotton Purchase Price**: As of September 22, 2025, the average boll - opening rate in Xinjiang was about 83.2%. The expected purchase price of machine - picked seed cotton is 6.2 - 6.4 yuan/kg, and the current purchase price of hand - picked seed cotton is around 7.2 yuan/kg. Zhengzhou cotton futures above 14,000 yuan/ton face significant hedging pressure [14]. - **Imports**: In August 2025, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a 40% increase from the previous month but a 51.6% decrease year - on - year. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import was 590,000 tons, a 72.6% year - on - year decrease. Future imports are expected to show a short - term month - on - month slow increase and a long - term low - level oscillation, with an annual import volume of about 1.2 - 1.4 million tons [19]. - **Industrial Chain Operation**: Since September, the decline of Zhengzhou cotton futures has affected textile enterprises' sentiment, with cotton yarn prices dropping by 100 - 200 yuan/ton. However, the decline in cotton yarn prices was smaller than that of cotton, widening the cotton - yarn price spread and slightly improving textile enterprises' profits. The operating rate of textile enterprises did not rise significantly during the peak season, while that of weaving enterprises increased relatively significantly. Since August, the finished - product inventories of both types of enterprises have been decreasing [21][25][27]. c) International Market Analysis - **Global Supply and Demand**: According to the USDA's September cotton supply - demand report, in the 2025/26 season, global cotton production, consumption, and trade volume are expected to increase, while the beginning and ending inventories will decrease. The ending inventory will reach a four - year low [30]. - **Fed's Interest - rate Policy**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected. There are still two interest - rate meetings in 2025, and most Fed members expect two more interest - rate cuts totaling 50 basis points within the year. The expectation of interest - rate cuts may lead to a weaker US dollar, which may support US cotton prices [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three commodities (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][8] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the global cotton supply - demand situation is expected to improve, with short - term support for domestic cotton prices but potential downward pressure in the medium - term and upward potential in the long - term [2][3] - For sugar, the Brazilian sugar production situation and domestic sales performance affect the price, with short - term downward pressure but limited further decline space [5][6] - For pulp, the supply pressure remains, and demand is weak, with short - term prices expected to continue low - level fluctuations [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 13,895 yuan/ton yesterday, up 10 yuan/ton (+0.07%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: 3128B cotton Xinjiang arrival price was 15,214 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton; national average price was 15,300 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton [1] - US cotton: As of September 14, the boll opening rate was 50%, 3 percentage points slower than last year and 1 point faster than the five - year average; the harvest rate was 9%, 1 point slower than last year and 1 point faster than the five - year average; the good - excellent rate was 52%, 13 points higher than last year and 10 points higher than the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - International: The September USDA report adjusted up global cotton production, consumption, and trade volume, and adjusted down initial and ending stocks. The US cotton supply - demand data changed little, with only a slight increase in production. The new - year supply - demand of US cotton is expected to improve, but short - term upside is limited due to slow export sales [2] - Domestic: Cotton de - stocking is fast, and commercial inventory is at a historical low. The supply is still tight at the end of the year, and demand improves marginally in the peak season. However, new - year production is expected to increase, and hedging pressure may be high during the new cotton listing [2] Strategy - If the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season fails, Zhengzhou cotton may fall. In the long - term, the supply - demand is not expected to be too loose, and the cotton price center may rise after seasonal pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,547 yuan/ton yesterday, down 2 yuan/ton (-0.04%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: Guangxi Nanning sugar price was 5,890 yuan/ton, unchanged; Yunnan Kunming price was 5,865 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [4] - Market information: Brazilian mid - southern sugarcane yield in August decreased by 1.6% year - on - year, and the sugar extraction rate decreased by 2.9%. German beet sugar production in 2025/26 is expected to drop by 4.9% [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: The sugar production in Brazil's mid - southern region increased in August, and the northern hemisphere has an increasing production expectation, which suppresses the raw sugar price. However, the ethanol price provides support, and the downward space is limited [5] - Zhengzhou sugar: Domestic sales in August were poor, and the market worried about syrup policy relaxation. The domestic price is under downward pressure, but the downward space is limited after continuous decline [5][6] Strategy - Adopt an approach of waiting for a rebound after bottom - grinding in the short - term [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: Pulp 2511 contract closed at 5,068 yuan/ton yesterday, up 12 yuan/ton (+0.24%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: Shandong Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp price was 5,650 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; Russian softwood pulp price was 5,140 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [6] - Market information: The import wood pulp spot market had more price increases than decreases, with some prices adjusted by 10 - 150 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have announced production cuts, but it hasn't significantly changed the supply pattern. Domestic pulp production capacity will increase in the second half of the year, and wood pulp imports are expected to decline. Port inventory is at a high level, and supply pressure remains [7] - Demand: European and American pulp consumption is weak, and global pulp mill inventory pressure is emerging. Domestic demand is weak, with paper mills' raw material procurement cautious and low operating rates [7] Strategy - The pulp market fundamentals have no obvious improvement, and prices are expected to continue low - level fluctuations in the short - term [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The recent issuance of 200,000 tons of cotton import sliding - duty processing trade quotas by the National Development and Reform Commission has limited impact on the market. Before the new cotton is listed, the low - inventory situation still supports cotton prices. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", the downstream finished - product inventory is further reduced, but the profit has not been significantly restored, and the overall downstream confidence is still insufficient. The strategy is to go long on dips but not to chase the rise. Attention should be paid to the listing time and opening price of new cotton and the subsequent downstream peak - season sales [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategy - **Price Range Forecast**: The predicted monthly price range for cotton is 13,800 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0924 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.2606 [3]. - **Inventory Management Strategy**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about cotton price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 14,200 - 14,400. They can also sell call options (CF601C14400) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 300 - 350 to reduce costs and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3]. - **Procurement Management Strategy**: For enterprises with low procurement inventory and wanting to purchase according to orders, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 13,800 - 13,900 to lock in procurement costs in advance. They can also sell put options (CF601P13800) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 250 - 300 to reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot cotton purchase price if the cotton price drops [3]. Core Contradictions - **Inventory Support**: Due to the increase in spinning capacity in Xinjiang and a significant reduction in imported cotton this year, the downstream rigid consumption of cotton has increased, and the inventory of Xinjiang cotton has decreased rapidly. As of August 15, the domestic cotton industrial and commercial inventory was 2.7444 million tons, a decrease of 343,800 tons from the end of July, which supports cotton prices [4]. - **Downstream Seasonal Changes**: With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October", the downstream finished - product inventory is further reduced, and the load of cloth mills continues to rise slightly, showing signs of the peak season [4]. - **USDA Report Impact**: The USDA's August supply - demand forecast report lowered the US cotton production and raised China's consumption, and significantly lowered the global ending inventory [4]. Negative Factors - **Quota Issuance**: The National Development and Reform Commission issued 200,000 tons of cotton import sliding - duty processing trade quotas to supplement the market supply before the new cotton is listed [5]. - **New Cotton Outlook**: The growth progress of new cotton in Xinjiang is fast, and the overall growth is good, with an optimistic outlook for the new - year production [5]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - **Cotton Futures**: Cotton 01 closed at 14,010, up 20 (0.14%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,950, unchanged; Cotton 09 closed at 13,580, up 5 (0.04%) [7]. - **Cotton Yarn Futures**: Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,995, unchanged; Cotton yarn 05 closed at 20,215, down 100% (this data seems abnormal); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 20,100, up 475 (2.42%) [7]. Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Spreads - **Cotton - related Spreads**: The cotton basis was 1,441, down 34; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 60, up 20; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 370, down 5; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 430, down 15 [8]. - **Other Spreads**: The cotton - yarn spread was 5,990, up 20; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 2,216, up 140; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 517, unchanged [8]. Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: CCI 3128B was 15,451, down 14 (- 0.09%); CCI 2227B was 13,541, down 12 (- 0.09%); CCI 2129B was 15,703, down 16 (- 0.1%) [9]. - **Foreign Indexes**: FCI Index S was 13,708, up 108 (0.79%); FCI Index M was 13,492, up 107 (0.8%); FCI Index L was 13,194, up 110 (0.84%) [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - Cotton: Short - term domestic cotton supply is tightening, and with the arrival of the peak season and the possibility of a rush to purchase, Zhengzhou cotton may show a bullish trend before the large - scale listing of new flowers. Medium - term, due to strong expectations of a bumper harvest in the new year, the market will face pressure during the centralized listing period. If the peak season fails to meet expectations, there may be a decline [3]. - Sugar: Due to the low inventory of domestic sugar and the sugar mills' willingness to support prices, there is some support for Zhengzhou sugar prices, and the short - term decline space may be limited [6]. - Pulp: The current fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved significantly, and the industry chain lacks positive drivers. Short - term pulp prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 14,025 yuan/ton, a change of - 215 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.51%. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,392 yuan/ton, a change of + 149 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 15,479 yuan/ton, a change of + 151 yuan/ton from the previous day. - Recent market news: In July, Argentina exported 4,131 tons of cotton, a 17.9% decrease from the previous month and a 75% decrease year - on - year. From August 2024 to July 2025, Argentina's cumulative cotton exports were about 87,000 tons, a 26% decrease year - on - year [1]. Market Analysis - International: India extended the temporary tariff exemption period, which supported US cotton. In August, USDA significantly lowered the global cotton output and ending stocks, changing the supply - demand pattern from loose to tight. However, the output adjustments of some production - increasing countries by USDA may not be in place. The supply - demand expectation of US cotton is expected to improve, but the slow export sales progress restricts the upside space. Short - term ICE US cotton may be difficult to break through the 65 - 70 cents oscillation range. - Domestic: The inventory reduction speed of domestic cotton is continuously fast, and the commercial inventory has dropped to a historical low. Although the sliding - scale tariff quota has been issued, it has not effectively solved the problem of tight cotton use in Xinjiang. The supply - tight pattern at the end of this year remains unchanged. With the arrival of the peak season, demand has improved marginally, providing strong support for domestic cotton prices. The new cotton is growing well, and the expectation of a bumper harvest is increasing. Although the pre - sale of new cotton is hot, there may be a rush to purchase in the early stage due to over - capacity of ginning factories. However, the hedging pressure during the centralized listing of new flowers will limit the upside of cotton prices [2]. Strategy - Neutral to bullish. Before the large - scale listing of new flowers, Zhengzhou cotton may show a bullish trend; in the medium - term, there may be pressure during the centralized listing period [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5,609 yuan/ton, a change of + 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.09%. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,910 yuan/ton, a change of - 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,825 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3]. Market Analysis - International: Brazil's Conab and other institutions have lowered the sugar production forecast in the central - southern region. Pakistan's purchase of 100,000 tons of sugar has boosted prices. However, Brazil is in the peak crushing season, and the production - increasing expectation in the Northern Hemisphere remains unchanged, so there is limited upside space. - Domestic: The profit of out - of - quota imports has been high for several months, and the import volume in July increased significantly year - on - year. Processed sugar in August - September is expected to impact the domestic spot market, putting pressure on Zhengzhou sugar prices [6]. Strategy - Neutral. Due to low domestic sugar inventory and sugar mills' price - supporting intention, the short - term decline space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited [6]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract yesterday was 5,040 yuan/ton, a change of + 22 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of 0.44%. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (U - needle and B - needle) was 5,090 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [7]. Market Analysis - Supply: There will be more pulp production capacity put into operation in the second half of the year in China, and the import volume of wood pulp is expected to decline. However, due to the slow inventory reduction at ports and high inventory levels, the supply pressure of pulp remains, and the supply of hardwood pulp is looser than that of softwood pulp. - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the United States is weak, and the inventory pressure of global pulp mills is emerging. In China, affected by the traditional off - season, demand is weak, the inventory pressure of finished paper is rising, and paper mills are cautious in raw material procurement. Although there are plans to put into operation a large amount of finished paper production capacity this year, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the improvement of terminal demand in the second half of the year is limited [8]. Strategy - Neutral. The current fundamentals of the pulp market have not improved, and short - term pulp prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [9].

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on September 1, 2025 - A - shares opened September with gains, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.46% to 3875.53, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.05% to 12828.95, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.29% to 2956.37. The trading volume of the two markets was 2750 billion yuan, a decrease of 48.3 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1] - The CSI 300 Index remained strong, closing at 4523.71, up 26.95 [2] 2. Futures Market Performance 2.1 Energy and Chemical Futures - The coke weighted index was weak, closing at 1597.5, down 57.1 [3] - The coking coal weighted index trended weakly, closing at 1117.2 yuan, down 37.5 [4] - The palm oil futures rebounded after stopping the decline, with the main contract P2601 closing at 9384, up 0.73%. As of August 29, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 610,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 28,000 tons or 4.81%, and a year - on - year increase of 16,500 tons or 2.77% [8] - The asphalt 2510 main contract oscillated and closed up 1% at 3540 yuan. Last week, the asphalt capacity utilization rate continued to decline month - on - month, inventory reduction was slow, and shipments increased slightly [9] 2.2 Agricultural Futures - The Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract oscillated slightly higher. Large speculators increased their net short positions in ICE raw sugar futures and options by 2224 lots to 132,813 lots as of August 26 [5] - The Shanghai rubber oscillated. Affected by the planned zero - tariff rubber trade via the Mekong River channel between China and Thailand in September and other factors, the first pilot project will start in September 2025, with an expected increase in export volume [6] - The CBOT soybean futures were closed for the Labor Day holiday. The domestic soybean meal futures oscillated, with the M2601 main contract closing at 3054 yuan/ton, down 0.03%. The domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, and the price is under pressure [7] - The live hog futures oscillated, with the LH2511 main contract closing at 13,625 yuan/ton, up 0.52%. The terminal demand is showing signs of recovery, but the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is large [7] - The Zhengzhou cotton main contract closed at 14,085 yuan/ton at night. The cotton inventory decreased by 194 lots, and some areas in Xinjiang began manual harvesting [9] 2.3 Metal Futures - The Shanghai copper price was driven up. The domestic inventory decline provided support, and the Yangshan copper premium reached a new high since June 5 [8] - The iron ore 2601 main contract oscillated and fell 2.67% to 766 yuan. The global iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased last week, and the market sentiment weakened [9] - The log 2511 contract opened at 820, closed at 818.5, and decreased positions by 353 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat, and the external price increase drove up the domestic futures price [9][10] - The rebar rb2601 closed at 3115 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil hc2601 closed at 3303 yuan/ton. The rebar market was weak, with increasing supply pressure and uncertain demand improvement [10] - The alumina ao2601 closed at 3008 yuan/ton. The ore price has support, but the supply - demand balance is slightly in surplus [11] - The Shanghai aluminum al2510 closed at 20,645 yuan/ton. The aluminum price remained firm under the background of expected interest rate cuts and demand recovery [11] 3. Influencing Factors and Outlook - For coke and coking coal, factors such as production restrictions in coking plants, iron water production, and inventory changes affect prices [5] - For sugar, the change in large speculators' positions and the trend of US sugar prices are important factors [5] - For rubber, the zero - tariff trade policy between China and Thailand is a major positive factor [6] - For soybean meal, the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and soybean imports are the focus [7] - For live hogs, the supply and demand situation in the fourth quarter and the market demand are key points [7] - For copper, US non - farm data and China's August PMI data will affect the price trend [8] - For iron ore, the short - term market is affected by production cuts in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region [9] - For asphalt, the demand in the peak season is expected to increase, and the price will oscillate in the short term [9] - For log, the price is affected by external prices, supply - demand relationship, and market sentiment [10] - For rebar, the supply - demand contradiction and cost factors affect the price, and it will continue to oscillate to find the bottom [10] - For alumina, factors such as ore mining, cost, and inventory affect the price [11] - For aluminum, the Fed's interest rate decision and demand improvement are important factors [11]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 29, A-share stock indexes rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.99%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.23%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2798.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 172.5 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index was strong on that day, closing at 4496.76, a rise of 32.98 [1][2]. - The weighted index of coke trended weakly on September 29, closing at 1643.0, a decrease of 15.4. The weighted index of coking coal was weakly consolidated, closing at 1149.0 yuan, an increase of 0.6 [3][4]. - The price of US sugar oscillated slightly lower on September 29. Zhengzhou sugar futures prices oscillated slightly higher at night due to bargain - hunting after a large short - term decline. The supply gap of sugar in the 2025/26 season is expected to narrow significantly [5]. - The rubber futures price oscillated slightly lower on September 29 due to the decline in crude oil prices [6]. - The soybean meal futures price may continue to oscillate and adjust, showing a pattern of weak supply and demand. The focus is on the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and soybean imports [7]. - The live pig futures price may run weakly and oscillate. The focus is on the slaughter rhythm and market demand [8]. - The Shanghai copper futures price will remain at a high level, but the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut path and trade situation may affect the market [9]. - The iron ore futures price is in an oscillating trend in the short term [9]. - The asphalt futures price will oscillate in the short term [10]. - The steel price will be under pressure and show an oscillating bottom - seeking trend, and the focus is on the performance of peak - season demand [12]. - The alumina industry is expected to gradually recover with the arrival of the traditional peak season [12]. - The electrolytic aluminum industry has positive expectations, with supply increasing slightly and demand gradually recovering [13]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On September 29, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3857.93, up 0.37%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12696.15, up 0.99%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2890.13, up 2.23%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2798.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 172.5 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - The CSI 300 index closed at 4496.76 on September 29, a rise of 32.98 [2]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 29, the weighted index of coke closed at 1643.0, a decrease of 15.4; the weighted index of coking coal closed at 1149.0 yuan, an increase of 0.6 [3][4]. - Coke: Mainstream coke enterprises proposed the eighth round of price increase. The supply increased, and the demand was affected by end - of - month production restrictions. The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was 55 yuan/ton [5]. - Coking coal: Some domestic mines had production disruptions, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance decreased slightly. The downstream demand will be restricted by end - of - month production restrictions [5]. Sugar - In the first half of August, the sugar production in the central and southern regions of Brazil increased by 15.96% year - on - year to 3620000 tons. The supply gap in the 2025/26 season is expected to narrow significantly to 231000 tons from 4.88 million tons this year [5]. Rubber - On September 29, the rubber futures price oscillated slightly lower due to the decline in crude oil prices. As of August 29, the inventory and warehouse receipts of natural rubber and 20 - grade rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange changed [6]. Soybean Meal - The international soybean futures price rose on August 29, while the domestic soybean meal futures price was weakly oscillating. The domestic supply was abundant, and the demand was weak. The price may continue to oscillate and adjust [7]. Live Pig - On August 29, the live pig futures price oscillated weakly. The demand showed signs of slow recovery, but the supply pressure in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year was still large [8]. Shanghai Copper - The Shanghai copper futures price will remain at a high level. The domestic supply of copper concentrates is relatively tight, and the demand is expected to be good in the peak season. However, the uncertainty of the Fed's interest - rate cut path and trade situation may affect the market [9]. Iron Ore - On August 29, the iron ore 2601 main contract oscillated and closed up, with a gain of 0.77% and a closing price of 787.5 yuan. The global shipment and arrival volume decreased last week, and the price was in an oscillating trend in the short term [9]. Asphalt - On August 29, the asphalt 2510 main contract oscillated and closed up, with a gain of 0.17% and a closing price of 3507 yuan. The production capacity utilization rate decreased, and the price will oscillate in the short term [10]. Steel - The steel price is under pressure due to weak supply and demand, but the cost increase may limit the downward space. It will show an oscillating bottom - seeking trend, and the focus is on the peak - season demand [12]. Alumina - The supply of bauxite will gradually decrease, and the domestic supply of alumina may increase slightly. The demand is stable, and the industry is expected to recover with the arrival of the peak season [12]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The supply of electrolytic aluminum will increase slightly, and the demand will gradually recover with the arrival of the peak season. The industry has positive expectations [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [9] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: The global cotton supply - demand pattern has shifted from loose to tight according to the August USDA report, but the actual reduction in production needs further observation. In China, the commercial cotton inventory is at a historical low, supporting cotton prices in the short - term. However, due to good growth of new cotton, there will be significant hedging pressure during the centralized listing period [2]. - **Sugar**: Brazilian sugar production has issues with low cane quality, which limits the decline of raw sugar prices. In China, the expected increase in imports suppresses sugar prices in the short - term. In the long - term, it is advisable to sell high [6]. - **Pulp**: The supply of pulp remains under pressure in the second half of 2025, and the demand is weak both at home and abroad. The overall pulp market lacks positive drivers [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 14,070 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.04%) from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,240 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,336 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton. India extended the exemption of cotton import tariffs until December 31, 2025 [1]. Market Analysis - International: The August USDA report adjusted the global cotton supply - demand pattern, but the actual reduction in production is uncertain. The US cotton balance sheet is expected to improve, supporting international cotton prices. - Domestic: The "anti - involution" is over, and the Sino - US tariff truce is extended. The low commercial inventory supports cotton prices in the short - term. The impact of the sliding - scale quota policy is limited, but there will be significant hedging pressure during the centralized listing of new cotton [2]. Strategy - Short - term: Zhengzhou cotton may fluctuate strongly before the large - scale listing of new cotton. - Medium - term: Pay attention to the demand during the peak season as there will be pressure during the centralized listing period [3]. Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,602 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.32%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,910 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5,830 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports was 72, and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped was 2.7221 million tons, a decrease of 194,800 tons (6.67%) from the previous week [4]. Market Analysis - Raw sugar: The high sugar - making ratio in Brazil is offset by low cane quality, limiting the decline of raw sugar prices. There is limited room for a sharp rebound. - Zhengzhou sugar: The high profit of out - of - quota imports and the expected increase in imports suppress sugar prices in the short - term [6]. Strategy - Short - term: Limited room for further decline, expected to fluctuate weakly within a range. - Medium - term: There may be a tail - end rally in the fourth quarter. - Long - term: Sell high [6]. Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5,002 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton (-0.16%) from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,725 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,065 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with only sporadic price drops [7]. Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, the import volume of wood pulp increased, and there will be more pulp production capacity put into operation in the second half. The port inventory is high, and the supply pressure remains. - Demand: The consumption of pulp in Europe and the US is weak, and the domestic demand is also affected by the off - season. The overall demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited [8]. Strategy - Short - term: Pulp prices are expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level as the fundamentals have not improved significantly [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [2][5][7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Zhengzhou cotton futures price showed a strong and volatile trend. Internationally, the USDA's August report tightened the supply - demand pattern, but the actual reduction in production remains uncertain. Domestically, low commercial inventories support prices, but new - year production increase and hedging pressure are concerns. The sugar futures price continued to fluctuate. Brazilian sugar production has quality issues, and the increase in domestic imports suppresses prices. The pulp futures price oscillated. Supply pressure persists due to high port inventories, and demand remains weak both at home and abroad [2][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 14,120 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (+0.64%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,100 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,235 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton. The 2025 cotton import sliding - scale duty processing trade quota is 200,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - International: The USDA's August report tightened the supply - demand pattern, but the actual reduction in production is uncertain. Domestic: Low commercial inventories support prices, the sliding - scale duty quota policy has limited impact, and new - year production increase and hedging pressure are concerns [2] Strategy - Neutral. Monitor peak - season demand. If demand improves, the price may be strong before new cotton is listed; otherwise, there will be pressure during the listing period [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5688 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (+0.32%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5970 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5860 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton. Brazilian mid - southern cane yield and sugar content decreased [2][3] Market Analysis - International: Brazilian sugar production has quality issues, and some institutions have lowered production estimates. Domestic: High import profits and increased imports suppress prices [4] Strategy - Neutral. The downside is limited, with short - term range - bound trading and a possible end - of - year price increase [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2511 contract was 5136 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (+0.55%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5790 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton; the price of Russian needles was 5150 yuan/ton, unchanged. Some imported pulp prices increased slightly [5] Market Analysis - Supply: High imports in the first half of 2025, more domestic production capacity in the second half, but slow port de - stocking and high inventory levels. Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the US, and weak domestic demand during the off - season [6] Strategy - Neutral. The fundamentals are not improving, and the price is expected to remain low and volatile [7]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the cotton industry. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term performance of cotton may be stable with a slight upward trend, but as prices rise, it may face pre - hedging pressure from new cotton. The overall market atmosphere is warm due to the expected Fed rate cut in September and potential domestic stimulus policies in the fourth quarter, which supports commodity prices [3][36]. 3. Summary by Section First Part: Basic Data of Domestic and International Cotton Markets - **Price Changes**: From August 15th to August 24th, the CRB commodity price index rose by 4.46 points to 300 points; ICE cotton futures' December contract rose 0.52 cents/lb to 68 cents/lb, a 0.77% increase. The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures (01) closed at 14,030 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, with an increase of 7,288 lots in positions to 485,000 lots. Domestic cotton spot prices rose slightly, with CCI3128 rising from 15,216 yuan/ton to 15,243 yuan/ton [2][10][11]. - **Imported Cotton Quotes**: The CNF quotes of imported cotton at major ports increased, with the quotes of US E/MOTM and Brazilian M rising by 0.7 cents/lb [9]. Second Part: Basic Situation of the Domestic Market - **Raw Material Prices**: On August 24th, compared with August 15th, the price of polyester staple fiber remained unchanged, viscose rose by 214 yuan/ton, CCI3128 rose by 82 yuan/ton, and the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton futures fell by 90 yuan/ton [14]. - **Yarn Prices**: Domestic yarn prices rose, while the prices of imported cotton yarn in RMB and foreign yarn prices declined. The domestic - foreign yarn price spread narrowed [18][20][21]. - **Cotton Price Comparison**: On August 24th, the domestic cotton spot price index CCI3128 was 15,243 yuan/ton. The difference between the spot price index and the foreign cotton price under the sliding - scale duty was 948 yuan/ton. The difference between the main contract and the FCIndexM under the sliding - scale duty narrowed [25]. Third Part: Analysis of the Zhengzhou Cotton Market - **Warehouse Receipts and Forecasts**: As of August 24th, the registered warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou cotton were 7,198 lots (336,000 tons), and the effective forecasts were 63 lots. The total of warehouse receipts and effective forecasts was 312,000 tons, down from 347,000 tons on August 15th [30]. - **Futures - Spot Price Difference**: On August 24th, the difference between the Zhengzhou cotton futures price and the CCI3128B index was - 1,213 yuan/ton, narrowing compared with August 15th [32]. - **Price Analysis**: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates in September, and the domestic market may introduce favorable policies in the fourth quarter. The commercial cotton inventory is at a historically low level, and the downstream market is in a benign operation. Technically, the indicators of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton weakened [33][34][39]. Fourth Part: Analysis of the International Market - **US Cotton Exports**: From August 8th - 14th, the net signing of US 2025/26 - year - old upland cotton decreased by 56% compared with the previous week, and the shipment decreased by 32%. There was no signing of next - year's upland cotton and Pima cotton this week [43]. - **ICE Cotton Futures**: On August 24th, the main December contract of ICE cotton futures was 68 cents/lb, up 0.52 cents/lb from August 15th, with a 0.77% increase. Technically, the indicators strengthened [47]. Fifth Part: Operation Suggestions For downstream textile enterprises, when raw material prices fall, they can consider selling out - of - the - money put options to reduce the cost of purchasing raw cotton [49].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - On August 22, the A-share market showed strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3800 points and reaching a ten-year high. The CSI 300 index also closed strongly, rising by 89.93 points compared to the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products are affected by different factors, including supply and demand, policies, and international market conditions. For example, the prices of coke and coking coal are influenced by production limits, inventory levels, and market sentiment; the price of sugar is affected by production forecasts in Brazil and India; the price of rubber is driven by the expectation of interest rate cuts; and the price of soybeans is supported by strong exports and good growth conditions [1][3][4]. - The market trends of different products vary, with some showing upward trends, some showing downward trends, and some remaining in a state of shock. For example, the prices of stock index futures, coke, and sugar showed upward trends; the price of coking coal showed a downward trend; and the prices of iron ore, asphalt, and logs showed a state of shock [1][2][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On August 22, the A-share market continued its strong performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.45% to close at 3825.76 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.07% to close at 12166.06 points; the ChiNext Index rose by 3.36% to close at 2682.55 points; and the STAR 50 Index rose by 8.59% to close at 1247.86 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2546.7 billion yuan, an increase of 122.7 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On August 22, the weighted index of coke showed weak consolidation, with a closing price of 1677.0, a slight increase of 0.2 compared to the previous day. Due to the approaching of a major event, there are expectations of production limits in coking plants in the East China region. The seventh round of price increases for coke has improved coking profits, and the daily production of coking has increased slightly. The overall inventory of coke has continued to decline, and the purchasing willingness of traders is strong. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron remains at a high level during the off-season. Market sentiment towards coal over - production inspections has increased, driving up the price of coke. The coke futures price has a premium, and the price is greatly affected by the expected "anti - involution" policy [1][3]. - Coking Coal: On August 22, the weighted index of coking coal showed weak fluctuations, with a closing price of 1156.4 yuan, a decrease of 0.9 compared to the previous day. The output of coking coal mines has increased, the flow - rate of spot auctions has slightly increased, the transaction price has decreased, and the terminal inventory has remained flat. The inventory at the production end has increased slightly, and it is necessary to observe whether the de - stocking continues [2][3]. Sugar - A survey of 10 traders and analysts shows that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 39.7 million tons, lower than the February forecast of 41.6 million tons and the previous season's 40.2 million tons. Analysts expect the sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season starting in October to be 32 million tons, higher than the 26.22 million tons in the 2024/25 season. Affected by this, the US sugar price stopped falling and rebounded slightly last Friday. Supported by the stabilization of the US sugar price and the role of funds, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract fluctuated slightly higher last Friday [3]. Rubber - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting raised expectations of interest rate cuts, driving up the price of Shanghai rubber in the night session last Friday. As of August 22, the inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 212,669 tons, a decrease of 519 tons compared to the previous day; the futures warehouse receipts were 178,470 tons, a decrease of 1460 tons compared to the previous day. The inventory of No. 20 rubber was 48,183 tons, a decrease of 1007 tons compared to the previous day; the futures warehouse receipts were 44,857 tons, a decrease of 1612 tons compared to the previous day [4]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, on August 22, the CBOT soybean futures rose further to a two - month high. Strong weekly exports and the rebound of soybean oil prices boosted the price of US soybeans. The ProFarmer survey results in six out of seven states showed that the number of soybean pods was higher than the average of the past three years, supporting the expectation of good yields and production of US soybeans. The good growth condition of US soybeans has improved the harvest outlook, and the probability of weather speculation has decreased as the weather window narrows. In the domestic market, on August 22, the M2601 main contract closed at 3088 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.8%. The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the soybean crushing volume remains high, the downstream提货 speed has accelerated, and the inventory accumulation rhythm at the oil mill end has slowed down. China's soybean orders for the fourth quarter are basically all from South America. The market's concern about the tight supply of soybean meal in the later period supports the price - holding power of soybean meal. Future attention should be paid to the weather conditions in the production areas and the situation of soybean imports [4][5]. Live Hogs - On August 22, the LH2511 main contract closed at 13,840 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.54%. On the supply side, in August, the production capacity is in the stage of concentrated realization, the supply of suitable - weight pigs has increased, and the slaughter plan of group pig enterprises has increased compared to the previous month, resulting in a relatively loose market supply. On the demand side, the national central pork reserve purchase plan has released a market - supporting signal, strongly boosting market confidence. Although the supply of pigs is sufficient, the demand in some areas has shown signs of recovery, and the slaughterhouse operating rate has moderately rebounded. With the approaching of the students' return to school and the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day double - festival stocking period, the terminal consumption is expected to further improve. However, the actual consumption recovery strength is still restricted by factors such as residents' consumption willingness and the economic environment, and dynamic tracking is required. Live hogs may show a wide - range shock trend, and future attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of live hogs and market demand [5]. Copper - At the macro level, the market will focus on the Fed's interest - rate stance from the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. If the Fed releases a hawkish signal, it may suppress the copper price. Fundamentally, as the "Golden September" peak season approaches, downstream enterprises may have pre - stocking needs, and the expected improvement in demand will support the price. However, the supply of copper mines has increased to some extent, and the supply of refined copper is also expected to increase slightly. The changes in the supply - demand situation still need to be monitored. In addition, although the global inventory level is low, significant changes in inventory will also affect the copper price [6]. Iron Ore - On August 22, the iron ore 2601 main contract closed down with a decline of 0.71% and a closing price of 770 yuan. Last week, the global shipment and arrival volume of iron ore both increased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the molten iron production continued to rise and remained at a high level. However, with the tightening of environmental protection policies in the north before the September military parade, there is an expectation of a reduction in molten iron production. In the short term, the iron ore price is in a shock trend [6]. Asphalt - On August 22, the asphalt 2510 main contract closed up with a rise of 0.81% and a closing price of 3483 yuan. Last week, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate decreased compared to the previous week. The terminal demand was limited by rainfall and funds, and there was no significant improvement in demand. The fundamentals lack an obvious one - sided driving force, and the asphalt price will mainly fluctuate in the short term [6]. Cotton - On Friday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,155 yuan/ton. As of August 25, the minimum basis quotation of the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Trading Market was 1070 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 137 bales compared to the previous day [7]. Logs - On August 22, the 2509 contract of logs opened at 804, with a minimum of 797.5, a maximum of 807.5, and closed at 801, with a daily reduction of 1007 lots. Attention should be paid to the support at 800 and the resistance at 815. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. The increase in the external market quotation has driven up the domestic futures price. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment for the price [7]. Steel - Currently, the focus is shifting from downstream finished products to upstream raw materials. On the one hand, the reduction in blast furnace production is not significant, the molten iron production is still increasing, the actual demand for raw materials has increased, the fundamentals of iron ore are acceptable, and the seventh round of coke price increases has been implemented. On the other hand, various information about coking coal has emerged, reviving the bulls, and there is a sign that the correction is over. However, it should be noted that the inventory pressure of finished products is still increasing, which will intensify the contradiction between raw materials and finished products, and this situation will continue. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation of finished products in the next two weeks [9]. Alumina - From the perspective of raw materials, due to the uncertainty of disturbances in the Guinea mining area and the concentrated shipments before the rainy season in Guinea, the arrival and import of domestic bauxite have increased, and the supply of domestic bauxite is relatively sufficient. In terms of supply, the operating capacity of domestic alumina has increased slightly, the operating rate remains high, and the opening of the import window has led to an increase in imports, resulting in an increase in the domestic alumina supply. In terms of demand, the demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum plants remains high. In the southwest region, the abundant water period from July to August has prompted electrolytic aluminum plants to resume production intensively, and the demand for alumina has also increased. Overall, the fundamentals of alumina may be in a situation of both supply and demand growth [9]. Aluminum - The price of alumina, the raw material, has slightly decreased, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum remains good, which has encouraged smelters to be more active in production. In terms of supply, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is approaching the industry limit, and the domestic output has only increased slightly due to the commissioning of some replacement production capacities. In terms of demand, the spot price of aluminum remains relatively strong, and the off - season has suppressed the downstream consumption sentiment. However, as the peak season approaches, downstream enterprises may have pre - stocking needs, and the consumption demand is expected to improve. In terms of inventory, affected by the off - season, the social inventory has slightly accumulated and is at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a situation of stable and slightly increasing supply, temporarily weak demand but expected to recover [10].