农产品日报 | 2025-11-26 糖价止跌企稳，郑棉延续反弹 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13645元/吨，较前一日变动+60元/吨，幅度+0.44%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14599元/吨，较前一日变动+25元/吨，现货基差CF01+954，较前一日变动-35；3128B棉全国均价14832元/吨， 较前一日变动+39元/吨，现货基差CF01+1187，较前一日变动-21。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部，至11月23日全美棉花采摘进度79%，较去年同期落后4个百分点，较近五年均值落 后1个百分点。其中主产棉区得州采摘进度70%，较去年同期落后9个百分点，较近五年平均进度落后4个百分点。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价延续反弹。国际方面，USDA报告大幅上调2025/26年度全球棉花产量，其中包括美国、中国和巴西 在内的主产国产量均有所调增；而全球棉花消费量仅微幅上调，使得全球棉花期末库存较9月显著上升，并且由去 库再度转为累库。就美棉而言，因单产明显提高，USDA将美棉产量大幅上调，而出口仅上调4万吨，调整后美棉 销售压力显著提升。总体而言，11月USDA报告调整对 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-11-25 郑棉期价震荡反弹，纸浆走势依旧承压 风险 宏观及政策风险、主产国天气 白糖观点 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13585元/吨，较前一日变动+125元/吨，幅度+0.93%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆 到厂价14574元/吨，较前一日变动+3元/吨，现货基差CF01+989，较前一日变动-122；3128B棉全国均价14793元/ 吨，较前一日变动-3元/吨，现货基差CF01+1208，较前一日变动-128。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA）报告，11月14日至11月20日，美国2025/26年度棉花分级检验27.02吨，84.6% 的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。其中陆地棉检验量为26.31万吨，皮马棉为0.70万吨。至同期，累计分级检验150.66 万吨，81.4%的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。其中陆地棉检验量为147.82万吨，皮马棉为2.84万吨。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡反弹。国际方面，USDA报告大幅上调2025/26年度全球棉花产量，其中包括美国、中国和巴西 在内的主产国产量均有所调增；而全球棉花消费量仅微幅上调，使得 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-11-20 郑棉期价小幅反弹，糖价走势依旧偏弱 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13485元/吨，较前一日变动+90元/吨，幅度+0.67%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14557元/吨，较前一日变动-1元/吨，现货基差CF01+1072，较前一日变动-91；3128B棉全国均价14779元/吨， 较前一日变动-10元/吨，现货基差CF01+1294，较前一日变动-100。 近期市场资讯，据巴基斯坦棉花种植者协会(PCGA)2025/26年度最新数据，截至11月15日，新年度籽棉累计上市量 折皮棉约为75.3万吨，较前两周增加6.5万吨，同比（75.9万吨）减少0.8%。其中，信德省籽棉上市量折皮棉约为41.7 万吨，同比（41.1万吨）增加1.5%；旁遮普省籽棉上市量折皮棉约为33.6万吨，同比（34.8万吨）减少3.4%。从已 上市棉花流向来看，巴基斯坦国内纱厂皮棉采购量约61.9万吨，出口约2.6万吨，剩余轧花厂未售出库存约10.8万吨。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡反弹。国际方面，USDA11月月报重启发布，此次报告大幅上调美棉产量，202 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-11-19 供强需弱持续，郑棉短期承压 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13395元/吨，较前一日变动-50元/吨，幅度-0.37%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14558元/吨，较前一日变动-21元/吨，现货基差CF01+1163，较前一日变动+29；3128B棉全国均价14789元/吨， 较前一日变动-12元/吨，现货基差CF01+1394，较前一日变动+38。 近期市场资讯，据海关统计数据，2025年10月我国棉花进口量9万吨，环比（10万吨）减少1万吨，减幅10%；同比 （11万吨）减少2万吨，减幅15.6%。2025年1-10月我国累计进口棉花77万吨，同比减少67.4%。2025/26年度 （2025.9-2026.8）累计进口棉花19万吨，同比减少17.4%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡收跌。国际方面，USDA11月月报重启发布，此次报告大幅上调美棉产量，2025/26年度全球棉 花产量、消费量以及期末库存较9月份均增加，整体调整方向偏空，数据发布后美棉期价应声下跌。由于当前北半 球新棉集中上市，阶段性供应压力仍在释放，而全球纺织终 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][4][6] Core Views - **Cotton**: Short - term cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may回调 after cost solidification. In the long - term, considering low initial inventory and resilient consumption, cotton prices are expected to be positive after seasonal pressure [2] - **Sugar**: Before the Chinese New Year, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand situation is expected to be loose, and the price may hit a new low next year [4] - **Pulp**: Although the pulp price is boosted by macro sentiment, the improvement in fundamentals is limited, and the upside space is restricted. Attention should be paid to the demand in the fourth quarter [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,490 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,614 yuan/ton, down 56 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,819 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton [1] - **Import Data**: In September, Thailand imported 8,023 tons of cotton, a 11.4% month - on - month and 5.7% year - on - year decrease. From August 2025 to July 2026, Thailand's cumulative cotton imports were about 17,000 tons, a 2.2% year - on - year decrease. The United States was the largest source of imports, accounting for 54.5%, followed by Australia (28.6%) and Brazil (9.0%) [1] Market Analysis - **International**: In late October, China and the United States reached a phased consensus, and the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, improving the macro sentiment. However, due to the US government shutdown, key industrial data were postponed. With new cotton from the Northern Hemisphere on the market, supply pressure is being released, and weak global textile consumption limits the upside of the outer market [2] - **Domestic**: As the cotton harvest progresses, the expected new - cotton output has declined, and the purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized and rebounded, supporting the market. But new cotton is still expected to increase in production, and downstream demand is weak [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5,512 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (+0.62%) from the previous day [3] - **Spot**: The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,630 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton [3] - **Policy News**: Mexico has imposed a new tariff on sugar imports. All types of sugar are subject to a 156% tariff per kilogram, and refined sugar is subject to a 210.44% tariff. Previously, the tariff was 360 - 390 US dollars/ton [3] Market Analysis - **Raw Sugar**: Brazil's exports are strong, and India's production is expected to rebound, suppressing market confidence. The global sugar market may be in a bear cycle in the 25/26 season, and the rebound of raw sugar is limited [4] - **Zhengzhou Sugar**: Although there is a strong expectation of domestic sugar production increase in the new season, the price has fallen near the production cost line, and stricter syrup control policies support the price in the short term [4] Pulp Market News and Important Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract was 5,534 yuan/ton, up 52 yuan/ton (+0.95%) from the previous day [5] - **Spot**: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,565 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,125 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - **Import Data**: In October 2025, China imported 2.618 million tons of pulp, with an import value of 1.5317 billion US dollars and an average unit price of 585.06 US dollars/ton. From January to October, the cumulative import volume and value increased by 4.8% and decreased by 2.0% respectively compared with the previous year [5] Market Analysis - **Supply**: In September, European pulp port inventories declined month - on - month but remained high. Domestic pulp imports increased in September, and port inventories have been high for a long time, with the supply situation remaining unchanged [5] - **Demand**: Pulp consumption in Europe and the United States is weak, and global pulp mills face inventory pressure. Domestic demand is weak, and although a large amount of finished paper production capacity has been put into operation this year, effective demand is insufficient, and paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious [5]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on November 13, 2025 - A-share market: The three major A-share indices strengthened. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.73% to 4029.50, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.78% to 13476.52, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.55% to 3201.75. The trading volume reached 2042 billion yuan, up 96.9 billion yuan from the previous day [1]. - CSI 300 Index: Closed at 4702.07, up 56.17 [2]. - Futures market: - Coking coal and coke: The coking coal weighted index closed at 1230.3 yuan, down 6.8; the coke weighted index closed at 1716.4, down 7.0 [2][3]. - Zhengzhou Sugar: The Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract oscillated upward during the day and consolidated slightly higher at night [4]. - Rubber: Affected by the increase in Southeast Asian spot prices, the Shanghai Rubber futures oscillated higher during the day and consolidated slightly higher at night [4]. - Palm oil: The palm oil futures closed up slightly, with the main contract P2601 closing at 8752, up 0.09% [6]. - Shanghai Copper: The main - contract of Shanghai Copper rose 0.82% to 87550 yuan/ton [6]. - Cotton: The main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 13475 yuan/ton at night, and the inventory increased by 296 lots [6]. - Logs: The 2601 contract opened at 776.5, closed at 783.5, and decreased 212 lots in positions [6]. - Iron ore: The 2601 main contract of iron ore closed up 0.26% at 772.5 yuan [7]. - Asphalt: The 2601 main contract of asphalt closed down 1.05% at 3029 yuan [7]. - Steel: rb2601 closed at 3046 yuan/ton, hc2601 closed at 3254 yuan/ton [9]. - Alumina: ao2601 closed at 2840 yuan/ton [9]. - Shanghai Aluminum: al2601 closed at 22050 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Supply - demand Analysis - Coking coal and coke: - Coke: The third - round increase in spot procurement prices was implemented. Supply decreased due to environmental protection and high coking coal prices; demand weakened as steel mills increased production cuts [4]. - Coking coal: Supply was slightly tight due to mine inspections, but downstream acceptance of high - priced goods decreased, and auction prices dropped [4]. - Sugar: The 2024/25 annual sugar import volume was adjusted down by 380,000 tons to 4.62 million tons. The 2025/26 production was predicted to be 11.7 million tons, up 500,000 tons from the previous month; consumption was predicted to be 15.7 million tons, down 200,000 tons [4]. - Rubber: In October, the national passenger car retail volume was 2.242 million, down 0.8% year - on - year and 0.1% month - on - month [4][6]. - Palm oil: Indonesia may reduce palm oil exports by 11% - 12% in 2026 due to the implementation of B50 biodiesel [6]. - Steel: This week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.3438 million tons, down 223,600 tons (2.6%) week - on - week; the total inventory was 14.7735 million tons, down 262,200 tons (1.7%) week - on - week [9]. - Alumina: Most regions' spot prices stabilized. Downstream enterprises maintained on - demand procurement, and the supply - demand contradiction was still prominent [9]. - Aluminum: In November 2025, winter environmental protection affected some enterprises' production, and demand was suppressed by high prices and environmental protection policies [9]. 3. Market Outlook - Iron ore: In the short term, the price will oscillate due to supply - demand weakness and the central bank's monetary easing expectations [7]. - Asphalt: In the short term, the price will oscillate in a supply - demand weak pattern [7]. - Steel: In the short term, steel prices will continue to be weak as the off - season approaches and the market is mainly influenced by industry factors [9]. - Alumina: Attention should be paid to the mid - month northern heating season production restrictions, which may drive the price to recover [9]. - Aluminum: In the short term, aluminum prices will oscillate at a high level due to positive macro signals and off - season demand [9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall cotton harvest in Xinjiang is nearing completion. New - cotton costs are fixed at around 14,600 - 15,000 yuan/ton. The increasing new - season supply will pressure cotton prices. Downstream demand is tepid, but there's a rigid restocking demand from yarn mills. Short - term cotton prices may fluctuate, with attention on hedging pressure around 13,600 - 13,800 [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - **Price Forecast**: The monthly price range for cotton is predicted to be 13,400 - 13,800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0543 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0346 [3]. - **Risk Management Strategies**: - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high inventory worried about price drops, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) at 13,700 - 13,800 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell call options (CF601C13800) at 250 - 300 with a 75% ratio [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For those with low inventory and planning to purchase, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2601) at 13,300 - 13,400 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell put options (CF601P13400) at 150 - 200 with a 50% ratio [3]. 3.2 Core Contradictions and Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some southern Xinjiang areas have lower - than - expected yields and lower lint percentage, supporting the purchase price. Yarn mills have a rigid restocking demand, and positive market sentiment is driven by Sino - US trade talks [4][6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The new - season cotton output has increased year - on - year, leading to high hedging pressure. As of the end of October, domestic cotton industrial and commercial inventories reached 3818,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 109,000 tons. In October 2025, textile and clothing exports were 22.262 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.59% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.84%, indicating weak downstream demand [6][7]. 3.3 Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Information - **Futures Prices**: Cotton 01, 05, and 09 closed at 13,560, 13,560, and 13,735 respectively, all down 20 with a - 0.15% change. Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,855, down 10 (- 0.05%), while cotton yarn 05 and 09 had significant drops [8]. - **Price Spreads**: Cotton basis was 1282, up 18; the flower - yarn spread was 6280, up 15; the internal - external cotton spread was 1872, up 100 [8]. - **Internal and External Cotton Price Indexes**: CCI 3128B, 2227B, and 2129B decreased slightly, while FCI Index S, M, and L had relatively large drops [9].

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - On November 10, 2025, the three major A-share indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index regained the 4000-point mark, rising 0.53% to close at 4018.60 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.18% to close at 13427.61 points; the ChiNext Index fell 0.92% to close at 3178.83 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2174.5 billion yuan, an increase of 175.4 billion yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - The CSI 300 index showed a strengthening trend on November 10, closing at 4695.05, a环比 increase of 16.26 [2]. - The weighted index of coke was weak on November 10, closing at 1774.0, a环比 decrease of 20.2. The weighted index of coking coal showed a weak and volatile trend, closing at 1277.1 yuan, a环比 decrease of 14.9 [2][3]. - The third round of price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton for coke has been implemented. Some coke enterprises proposed a fourth - round price increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton starting from 0:00 on November 10. The total inventory of coke decreased by 129,700 tons last week [4]. - After the third - round price increase of coke, the production profit loss of coke enterprises decreased slightly, but the production enthusiasm of independent coke enterprises declined. The terminal demand was weak, and the steel mill's profit had a negative feedback on the molten iron output [5]. - Affected by the expectation of the US government's potential restart and strong Brazilian export data in October, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract and Shanghai Rubber showed an upward trend on November 10 [5][6]. - On November 10, the palm oil futures maintained a low - level volatile trend, with the main contract P2601 closing at 8690, a 0.35% increase from the previous day. As of November 7, the commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country increased [6]. - After the US Senate advanced a measure to reopen the federal government, industrial metals, including Shanghai Copper, rose. China's CPI turned from a decline to an increase in October 2025, and the decline of PPI narrowed. The social inventory of refined copper decreased slightly [6]. - On the night of November 10, the main contract of Zhengzhou Cotton closed at 13,595 yuan/ton, and the inventory increased by 281 lots compared with the previous trading day. The cotton picking in northern and eastern Xinjiang has ended, and southern Xinjiang is in the late stage of picking [6]. - On November 10, the 2601 main contract of logs opened at 778, with a minimum of 772.5, a maximum of 785, and closed at 782.5, with a decrease of 866 lots in positions. The spot price of logs in Shandong remained flat, while that in Jiangsu decreased. From January to October, the import of logs and sawn timber decreased year - on - year [6][7]. - On November 10, the 2601 main contract of iron ore closed down 0.07% at 765 yuan. The iron ore shipment decreased环比, while the domestic arrival volume increased significantly. The molten iron output decreased for 5 consecutive periods [7]. - On November 10, the 2601 main contract of asphalt closed down 1.17% at 3036 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt decreased环比, and the inventory continued to decline. The terminal demand remained weak [8]. - On November 10, rb2601 of steel closed at 3044 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3252 yuan/ton. The coking coal market remained tight, and coke started the fourth - round price increase. The demand for steel in the off - season was weak, and the supply - demand situation was weak on both sides [8]. - On November 10, ao2601 of alumina closed at 2829 yuan/ton. The supply of caustic soda was disrupted, driving up the cost of alumina. However, the demand for alumina was expected to weaken [8]. - On November 10, al2512 of Shanghai Aluminum closed at 21,725 yuan/ton. The high aluminum price suppressed the downstream procurement willingness. There were risks on the supply side, and there was a risk of inventory accumulation in November [8]. Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the report.

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][8] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, short - term upward space is limited due to factors like potential increase in hedging positions and weak downstream demand, but long - term prospects are optimistic considering low initial inventory and resilient consumption [2][3] - For sugar, the 25/26 global sugar market may be in a bear cycle with an oversupply pattern. Before the end of the year, it is expected to fluctuate, and there may be new lows next year [5][6] - For pulp, the fundamental improvement is insufficient, and the price is likely to continue to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [7][8] Summary by Industry Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,615 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton (+0.59%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,627 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,825 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: In the 2025/26 season, the cotton - planting area in Mato Grosso, Brazil is expected to be 1.46 million hectares (21.9 million mu), a year - on - year reduction of 5.7%, while the output is expected to be 2.62 million tons, a slight increase of 2.6% [1] Market Analysis - International: Sino - US negotiations have made substantial progress, but the actual purchase volume of US cotton by China is unclear. The release of key data is postponed, and the short - term upward space of the outer market is limited due to supply pressure and weak export performance [2] - Domestic: The new - year cotton market starts with low inventory, but the supply is supplemented. The purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized and rebounded, but the short - term upward space of cotton prices is limited due to potential hedging positions and weak downstream demand [2] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. In the short term, there is a possibility of a callback, while in the long term, cotton prices can be viewed optimistically [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5441 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton (-0.73%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan was 5660 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [4] - Market Information: The estimated total sugar production in the 2025/26 season in India (excluding the amount used for ethanol production) is 34.35 million tons, and the net production (after excluding ethanol usage) is 30.95 million tons [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Supply surplus pressure has pushed the price below 15 cents. Although the sugar - making ratio in Brazil has declined in the short term, the long - term rebound momentum is limited due to overall northern hemisphere production increases [5] - Zhengzhou sugar: The impact of typhoons has subsided, and there is a strong expectation of domestic sugar production increase. However, the price has fallen near the production cost line, and the downward space is limited due to stricter syrup control policies [5] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. It is expected to fluctuate before the end of the year, and there may be new lows next year [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract was 5360 yuan/ton, up 72 yuan/ton (+1.36%) from the previous day [6] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5045 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - Market Information: The spot price of imported wood pulp was basically stable, with only minor adjustments [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills have announced price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans, but the actual transactions are not good, and the overall supply pattern remains loose [7] - Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the United States and domestic demand weakness are the core factors suppressing pulp prices. During the peak season, downstream paper mills' procurement is cautious [7] Strategy - A neutral strategy is recommended. The pulp price is likely to continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][6][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: In the short - term, the upside of cotton prices is limited due to factors such as potential entry of hedging positions after price increases, weak downstream demand, and concentrated new cotton listing. In the long - term, considering low initial inventory and consumption resilience, cotton prices are expected to be positive after the seasonal pressure eases [2][3] - **Sugar**: The global sugar market in the 25/26 season may be in a bear cycle with an oversupply pattern, limiting the rebound of raw sugar. For domestic sugar, there is an expectation of increased production in the new season, and the price is near the cost line. It is expected to fluctuate by the end of the year, and there may be new lows next year [5][6] - **Pulp**: The supply of pulp remains loose with high port inventories, and demand is weak both globally and domestically. The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter should be noted [7][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract was 13,535 yuan/ton, down 65 yuan/ton (-0.48%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,640 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,841 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton. As of October 31, 2025/26 in Pakistan, the cumulative listed volume of new - season seed cotton in terms of lint was about 688,000 tons, an increase of 3.4% year - on - year [2] Market Analysis - Internationally, Sino - US negotiations have made progress, but the amount of US cotton that China will purchase is unclear. The release of key data is delayed, and there is a short - term supply pressure due to the concentrated listing of new cotton in the Northern Hemisphere. Domestically, the new - season cotton market starts with low inventory, and the supply is supplemented by new cotton. The purchase price of seed cotton has stabilized and rebounded, but there are factors such as potential hedging positions and weak downstream demand [2] Strategy - In the short - term, there is a possibility of a callback. In the long - term, cotton prices are expected to be positive after the seasonal pressure eases [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract was 5481 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.33%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5680 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. Conab estimated that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 season would be 4.134 million tons, higher than the previous forecast [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar prices are under pressure from oversupply. Although the sugar - making ratio in Brazil has declined in the short - term, the global sugar market in the 25/26 season may be in a bear cycle [5] Strategy - The downward space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited by factors such as cost and policies. It is expected to fluctuate by the end of the year, and there may be new lows next year [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract was 5288 yuan/ton, down 18 yuan/ton (-0.34%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5500 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5045 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The import pulp spot market prices were mostly stable with some fluctuations [7] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills' production reduction and price increase plans have limited impact on the overall supply pattern, and domestic port inventories remain high. Demand: Consumption in Europe and the United States is weak, and domestic demand is the core factor suppressing prices. Even in the peak season, downstream paper mills' raw material procurement is cautious [7] Strategy - The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the actual implementation of peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [8]