投资咨询中心 期现日报 2026年03月02日 | 为贝益国 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 今收 | 昨结 | 深跌 | 涨跌幅(%) 成交量(手 | | 增减 | 持仓量(手) | 仓是 | 授机度 | 增减 | | 原油主力 | 527. 8 | 484.3 | 43.5 | 8.98 | 190029 | 45717 | 44.601 | 5.628 | 4. 26 | 0.56 | | 原油指数 | 527. 4 | 484.0 | 43.4 | 8.97 | 318407 | 120927 | 109. 445 | 21,032 | 2.91 | 0. 68 | | PTA主力 | 5552 | 5216 | 336. 0 | 6. 44 | 2276096 | 1336643 | 1.467.484 | 20, 629 | 1. 55 | 0. 90 | | PTA指数 | 5548 | 5219 | 329.0 | 6. 30 | 2 ...

巴基斯坦和阿富汗在边境激烈交火 各称造成对方大量伤亡 据央视报道，当地时间2月26日晚，巴基斯坦和阿富汗在两国边境地区爆发激烈交火。巴基斯坦称打死 36名阿方武装人员，阿富汗称打死55名巴方士兵。27日凌晨，巴方发起空袭，冲突仍在持续。 阿富汗政府发言人穆贾希德26日晚在社交媒体发文称，为回应巴基斯坦军方"挑衅"，阿方打击巴方边境 地区军事设施。截至当晚10时，阿军已夺取巴方15处军事哨所。 阿富汗国防部26日深夜发布消息称，阿方在两国边境地区开展的军事行动已打死55名巴方士兵。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：期货日报 早上好，来看一下中东地区最新消息。 巴基斯坦新闻与广播部26日发表声明称，阿方"误判形势"，在巴基斯坦西北部开伯尔-普什图省的两国 交界地区多个地点"无端"发动炮击，巴方立即予以有效回击，阿方武装人员在多个地点遭到打击。初步 报告显示，阿方伤亡惨重，多个哨所和装备被摧毁。 巴基斯坦新闻与广播部长阿陶拉·塔拉尔27日凌晨在社交媒体发文称，这一正在持续的边境冲突中，至 少36名阿富汗武装人员被打死，巴方2名安全人员殉职。 据阿富汗方面消息，阿富汗东部与巴基 ...

早上好，来看一下中东地区最新消息。 巴基斯坦和阿富汗在边境激烈交火各称造成对方大量伤亡 据央视报道，当地时间2月26日晚，巴基斯坦和阿富汗在两国边境地区爆发激烈交火。巴基斯坦称打死 36名阿方武装人员，阿富汗称打死55名巴方士兵。27日凌晨，巴方发起空袭，冲突仍在持续。 阿富汗政府发言人穆贾希德26日晚在社交媒体发文称，为回应巴基斯坦军方"挑衅"，阿方打击巴方边境 地区军事设施。截至当晚10时，阿军已夺取巴方15处军事哨所。 阿富汗国防部26日深夜发布消息称，阿方在两国边境地区开展的军事行动已打死55名巴方士兵。 巴基斯坦新闻与广播部26日发表声明称，阿方"误判形势"，在巴基斯坦西北部开伯尔-普什图省的两国 交界地区多个地点"无端"发动炮击，巴方立即予以有效回击，阿方武装人员在多个地点遭到打击。初步 报告显示，阿方伤亡惨重，多个哨所和装备被摧毁。 巴基斯坦新闻与广播部长阿陶拉·塔拉尔27日凌晨在社交媒体发文称，这一正在持续的边境冲突中，至 少36名阿富汗武装人员被打死，巴方2名安全人员殉职。 据阿富汗方面消息，阿富汗东部与巴基斯坦接壤的霍斯特、库纳尔和楠格哈尔三个省份最近几日均处于 间歇性交火状态。 此前有消 ...

农产品日报 | 2026-02-26 中性。短期来看，金三银四传统旺季即将来临，市场对节后行情抱有较强信心，受假期外盘上涨及关税政策变化 的带动，节后郑棉走势可能震荡偏强，不过短期涨势预计仍将受到内外价差的压制。 郑棉持续走强，白糖小幅反弹 风险 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约15380元/吨，较前一日变动+95元/吨，幅度+0.62%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价16037元/吨，现货基差CF05+657；3128B棉全国均价16329元/吨，现货基差CF05+949。 近期市场资讯，据美国农业部（USDA）报告，2月13日至2月19日，美国2025/26年度棉花分级检验1.61万吨，77.2% 的皮棉达到ICE期棉交割要求。其中陆地棉检验量为1.53万吨，皮马棉为0.08万吨。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价延续涨势。国际方面，USDA展望论坛最新报告显示，2026/27年度全球棉花总产2526万吨，同比减 少3.2%；全球消费量2615万吨，同比增加1.2%；新年度全球期末库存1550万吨，同比减少5.2%。USDA展望预期 偏多，新年度全球棉市供需格局有望收紧，叠加美棉 ...

市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2605合约15285元/吨，较前一日变动+545元/吨，幅度+3.70%。现货方面， 3128B棉新疆到厂价15789元/吨，较前一日变动-31元/吨，现货基差CF05+504，较前一日变动-597； 3128B棉全国均价16070元/吨，较前一日变动-18元/吨，现货基差CF05+785，较前一日变动-594。 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：华泰期货 作者： 李馨 棉花观点 近期市场资讯，当地时间2026年2月20日，美国最高法院作出关键裁定，明确特朗普政府此前依据《国 际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）实施的大规模全球关税缺乏合法授权，判定该举措属越权行为，要求相 关关税在切实可行的范围内尽快停止征收。面对裁定结果，特朗普随即宣布将依据《1974年贸易法》第 122条权限，对全球输美商品加征10%临时关税，随后短期内再度加码，将该临时关税税率上调至 15%。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价强势上涨。国际方面，USDA展望论坛最新报告显示，2026/27年度全球棉花总产2526万 吨，同比减少3.2%；全球消费量2615万吨，同比增 ...

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current market sentiment is optimistic, but the post - Spring Festival downstream operating rate is unknown. Therefore, the pre - holiday Zhengzhou cotton futures price is oscillating strongly at a high level. After the festival, focus on the downstream operating rate and the new cotton target price policy that may be announced in March or April. The strategy is to try going long at the lower edge of the oscillation range [3][20]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Downstream Consumption and Price Movement - In December last year, due to the significantly higher operating rate of the downstream industry chain in the off - season compared to the same period of the previous year and the expectation of a reduction in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in the next year, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price increased by 6.58%. From January to mid - February this year, the price continued to move sideways at a high level, and there may still be an upward trend in the future from a technical chart perspective [5]. - In the peak seasons of September and October last year, the operating rate of the downstream industry chain did not increase month - on - month, and the cotton price declined due to the expectation of increased production. However, in the off - seasons of November and December, the operating rate did not show a seasonal decline and remained at a relatively high level. As of the week of February 6, the spinning mill operating rate was 60.5%, 10 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the weaving mill operating rate was 19.4%, 7.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year [5]. Inventory and Procurement - As of the end of January, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.79 million tons, 40,000 tons more than the same period last year; the industrial inventory was 1 million tons, 20,000 tons more than the same period last year. Since October 2025, the industrial inventory has continued to increase from 890,000 tons to the current 1 million tons, indicating high procurement enthusiasm of downstream spinning mills [5]. Import Situation - Currently, the domestic - foreign price difference has reached the highest level since 2014, with a very high import profit. The import profit with a 1% tariff exceeds 3,500 yuan/ton, and the import profit with a sliding - scale tariff is close to 2,500 yuan/ton. However, the increase in actual import volume is not large. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year; in 2025, the cumulative import of cotton was 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year; from August 2025 to July 2026, the cumulative import of cotton was 560,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons year - on - year [6]. - In December 2025, China imported 170,000 tons of cotton yarn, an increase of 20,000 tons year - on - year; in 2025, the cumulative import of cotton yarn was 1.5 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year; from August 2025 to July 2026, the cumulative import of cotton yarn was 720,000 tons, an increase of 110,000 tons year - on - year. Brazil exported 115,000 tons of cotton to China in January, an increase of 46,000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 31,000 tons month - on - month; from August 2025 to July 2026, Brazil's cumulative export of cotton to China was 478,000 tons, an increase of 96,000 tons year - on - year. As of January 22, 2025/26, the United States' cumulative export of cotton to China was 97,400 tons, a decrease of 66,000 tons year - on - year [6]. USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report - The February USDA monthly supply - demand report is neutral. The estimated global output for the 2025/26 season is 26.1 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the January estimate and 300,000 tons more than the previous season. The increase in output is from China, with an estimated output of 7.62 million tons in February, an increase of 100,000 tons from the January estimate. The estimated global consumption is 25.85 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the January estimate and 50,000 tons less than the previous season. The estimated global ending inventory is 16.35 million tons, an increase of 130,000 tons from the January estimate and 290,000 tons more than the previous season. The estimated global inventory - to - consumption ratio is 62.27%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points from the January estimate and 1.25 percentage points more than the previous season. The estimated export volume of the United States is adjusted down by 40,000 tons to 2.61 million tons compared to January, while the estimates of China, Brazil, and India change little [19].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][5][6] Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: The 25/26 global cotton supply-demand pattern is loose, with slow US cotton export sign - up. The short - term ICE US cotton will likely remain low - level volatile, and the medium - to - long - term downward space is limited. In China, the 25/26 cotton production increased significantly, and the supply - demand is expected to be balanced. There may be a tight inventory situation at the end of the year. The short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trade within a range [1] - **Sugar**: The 25/26 global sugar market is in a surplus pattern, and the raw sugar futures price will maintain a weak low - level consolidation. The long - term supply has potential positive factors. Zhengzhou sugar will likely fluctuate before the Spring Festival, and the downward space of sugar prices is limited [4] - **Pulp**: In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease, and the demand is expected to improve compared to last year. However, the overall improvement in the pulp fundamentals is limited, and the short - term pulp price may remain low - level consolidation [5][6] Group 3: Market News and Key Data - **Cotton**: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14,745 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (+0.61%). The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,756 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton. The national average price of 3128B cotton was 16,029 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton. As of February 6, the new cotton sowing progress in Mato Grosso, Brazil, reached 90%, 22 percentage points higher than the previous week and faster than last year's 80%. As of the end of January, the 2026 new cotton sales progress in Mato Grosso was about 55% [1] - **Sugar**: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5,266 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.23%). The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi, was 5,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price in Kunming, Yunnan, was 5,175 yuan/ton, unchanged. The US 2025/26 sugar production is expected to be 9.41 million short tons, including 5.102 million short tons of beet sugar and 4.308 million short tons of cane sugar. The sugar inventory/consumption ratio is estimated to be 15.9% [3] - **Pulp**: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5,236 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (+0.65%). The spot price of Chilean Arauco silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,310 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 4,885 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market price mostly remained stable, with individual prices slightly loosening [5] Group 4: Market Analysis - **Cotton**: Internationally, the short - term ICE US cotton will remain low - level volatile, and the long - term downward space is limited. Domestically, the supply - demand is expected to be balanced in the medium - to - long - term, but there may be tight inventory at the end of the year. The key factors to watch are the reduction of planting area and the target price subsidy policy [1] - **Sugar**: The raw sugar futures price will maintain a weak low - level consolidation in the short - to - medium - term, and there are potential positive factors in the long - term. Zhengzhou sugar will likely fluctuate before the Spring Festival, and the downward space of sugar prices is limited [4] - **Pulp**: In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure will ease, and the demand is expected to improve. However, the port inventory is high, and the overall improvement in fundamentals is limited [5] Group 5: Strategies - **Cotton**: In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trade within a range. Key factors to watch are the reduction of new - year planting area and the target price subsidy policy [1][2] - **Sugar**: Adopt an idea of bottom - building through fluctuations in the short - to - medium - term. Key factors to watch are the macro situation and domestic import sugar control policies [5] - **Pulp**: The short - term pulp price may remain low - level consolidation. The overall improvement in fundamentals is limited [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market shows a rebound, with the Spring Festival market possibly continuing and a general rise expected; focus on the supplementary increase elasticity of weighted indexes [7] - Bond market sentiment improves, and the short - term rebound trend may continue, but the odds have significantly decreased [8] - Black commodities such as steel and iron ore are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and some high - position short orders of iron ore can be held in the medium term [11] - Double - coke prices may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production at coal mines and the recovery of downstream demand after the Spring Festival [13] - For iron alloys, manganese ore has strong short - term support, manganese silicon is in an oscillatory range, and silicon iron can be a long - allocation variety in the medium term [14] - For soda ash and glass, it is advisable to wait and see currently, focusing on the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new capacity reaching production [15] - Copper prices are mainly in a wide - range oscillation in the short term, and fundamentals still support prices [16] - Carbonate lithium is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and opportunities for buying on dips after the correction can be concerned [17] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in an oscillatory state, with limited downward adjustment space for industrial silicon and polysilicon oscillating widely [18] - Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be in a high - level consolidation state, and short - term trading is recommended [20] - Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate and rebound, and short - term trading in the low - position range before the Spring Festival is recommended [23] - For eggs, it is recommended to reduce positions and wait and see before the Spring Festival, and pay attention to the impact of chicken culling and molting after the festival on second - quarter contracts [25] - High - quality apple supplies may continue to be strong, and the futures price may run strongly [26] - Corn prices are expected to be stable before the Spring Festival, and opportunities after the festival should be concerned [28] - Red dates are expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the market performance during the consumption peak season [29] - The spot price of live pigs is lower than expected, and the near - month contract may decline further [30] - Crude oil prices are expected to have limited room for rebound and mainly oscillate [32] - Fuel oil prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices [33] - Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly, and caution should be exercised to prevent correction risks [34] - Rubber is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and short - selling out - of - the - money put options or low - level accumulation can be considered [35] - Synthetic rubber may correct before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to opportunities for long - buying after the festival [36] - Methanol's fundamentals are slightly improved in the long term, but caution should be exercised due to uncertainties in the Middle East situation [37] - Caustic soda can be considered from a long - biased perspective for the time being [38] - Asphalt will fluctuate with crude oil prices and is stronger than crude oil [39] - PVC may enter a correction stage later, and caution should be exercised [40] - The polyester chain is expected to follow crude oil prices to oscillate and adjust in the short term, and inter - variety arbitrage opportunities of long TA and short EG can be considered [42] - LPG prices will follow crude oil prices, and caution should be exercised in trading [43] - Pulp prices have limited downward space in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [44] - Log prices may decline under the expectation of supply exceeding demand after the festival, and attention should be paid to position control [44] - Urea futures should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [45] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Based on Fundamental Judgments - **Trend Bearish**: No specific varieties mentioned - **Oscillating Bearish**: Eggs, red dates, etc. [2][29] - **Oscillating**: Coke, PTA, etc. [4] - **Oscillating Bullish**: Caustic soda, glass, etc. [2][15] - **Trend Bullish**: No specific varieties mentioned 3.2 Based on Quantitative Indicators - **Bearish**: Sugar, coke, etc. [4] - **Oscillating**: Hot - rolled coils, eggs, etc. [4] - **Bullish**: Rebar, glass, etc. [4] 3.3 Macro Information - The first inspection in the "15th Five - Year Plan" period highlights the importance of technological self - reliance [10] - The stock exchanges optimize refinancing measures, focusing on high - quality listed companies and the technology innovation field [10] - The Chinese government makes a solemn statement on the Japanese prime minister's expected continued tenure [10] - Chongqing introduces a package of real - estate policies, including purchase subsidies [10] - The first global humanoid robot free - fighting league is launched [10] - Goldman Sachs reports that the global memory market will face a severe supply shortage from 2026 - 2027 [10] - The US plans to lower tariffs on Bangladeshi goods [10] - The US employment growth data is expected to slow down [10] - The Japanese prime minister plans to promote food tax cuts [10] 3.4 Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The Spring Festival market may continue, and there is a possibility of a general rise. Focus on the supplementary increase elasticity of weighted indexes [7] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment improves, and the short - term rebound trend may continue, but the odds have significantly decreased [8] 3.5 Black Commodities - **Screw and Ore**: The trading rhythm is earlier this year. Steel inventories may be high after the festival. Iron ore supply is abundant, and the overall is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [11] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Double - coke prices may oscillate and consolidate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production at coal mines and the recovery of downstream demand after the Spring Festival [13] - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese ore has strong short - term support, manganese silicon is in an oscillatory range, and silicon iron can be a long - allocation variety in the medium term [14] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: It is advisable to wait and see currently, focusing on the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new capacity reaching production [15] 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Copper prices are mainly in a wide - range oscillation in the short term, and fundamentals still support prices [16] - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and opportunities for buying on dips after the correction can be concerned [17] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has limited downward adjustment space, and polysilicon oscillates widely [18] 3.7 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be in a high - level consolidation state, and short - term trading is recommended [20] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate and rebound, and short - term trading in the low - position range before the Spring Festival is recommended [23] - **Eggs**: It is recommended to reduce positions and wait and see before the Spring Festival, and pay attention to the impact of chicken culling and molting after the festival on second - quarter contracts [25] - **Apples**: High - quality apple supplies may continue to be strong, and the futures price may run strongly [26] - **Corn**: Corn prices are expected to be stable before the Spring Festival, and opportunities after the festival should be concerned [28] - **Red Dates**: Red dates are expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the market performance during the consumption peak season [29] - **Live Pigs**: The spot price of live pigs is lower than expected, and the near - month contract may decline further [30] 3.8 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil prices are expected to have limited room for rebound and mainly oscillate [32] - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices [33] - **Plastics**: Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly, and caution should be exercised to prevent correction risks [34] - **Rubber**: Rubber is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and short - selling out - of - the - money put options or low - level accumulation can be considered [35] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Synthetic rubber may correct before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to opportunities for long - buying after the festival [36] - **Methanol**: Methanol's fundamentals are slightly improved in the long term, but caution should be exercised due to uncertainties in the Middle East situation [37] - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda can be considered from a long - biased perspective for the time being [38] - **Asphalt**: Asphalt will fluctuate with crude oil prices and is stronger than crude oil [39] - **PVC**: PVC may enter a correction stage later, and caution should be exercised [40] - **Polyester Chain**: The polyester chain is expected to follow crude oil prices to oscillate and adjust in the short term, and inter - variety arbitrage opportunities of long TA and short EG can be considered [42] - **LPG**: LPG prices will follow crude oil prices, and caution should be exercised in trading [43] - **Pulp**: Pulp prices have limited downward space in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [44] - **Logs**: Log prices may decline under the expectation of supply exceeding demand after the festival, and attention should be paid to position control [44] - **Urea**: Urea futures should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [45]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - ICE cotton maintains a structure where near - term contracts are weak and far - term contracts are strong, lacking fundamental upward drivers. The situation is similar to the same period last year [1][6][19]. - Domestic cotton futures show a moderately strong and volatile trend, mainly influenced by the overall sentiment in the commodity market. There is a lack of new fundamental drivers, with sufficient supply and weak downstream demand during the off - season. The expectation of a decline in Xinjiang's cotton planting area in 2026 has been fully priced in for the time being. It is advisable to trade the target price subsidy policy for the next three years and the new - year's output after the Spring Festival in combination with demand [2][19]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Market Data | Futures | Opening Price | High | Low | Closing Price | Change | Change % | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE Cotton Main - continuous | 63.84 | 64.40 | 62.55 | 63.11 | - 0.73 | - 1.14% | 176,844 | 74,242 | 177,986 | - 3,423 | | Zhengzhou Cotton Main - continuous | 14,635 | 15,005 | 14,535 | 14,670 | - 25 | - 0.17% | 2,171,101 | 535,621 | 753,278 | - 50,057 | | Cotton Yarn Main - continuous | 20,515 | 21,230 | 20,385 | 20,495 | - 10 | - 0.05% | 56,765 | 3,127 | 5,889 | - 8,382 | [5] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 International Cotton Situation - **ICE Cotton Structure**: ICE cotton futures have been more volatile this week, maintaining a near - weak and far - strong structure. The 03 contract is under significant pressure, while the December contract is relatively stable [6]. - **US Cotton Weekly Export Sales Data**: As of the week ending January 22, 2026, the weekly signing volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 46,200 tons, a 51% decrease from the previous week and a 17% decrease from the four - week average. The weekly signing volume of 2026/27 US upland cotton was 3,400 tons. The weekly shipment volume of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 58,300 tons, a 37% increase from the previous week and a 61% increase from the four - week average. The total signed sales volume of US upland and Pima cotton in the 2025/26 season was 1.7722 million tons, accounting for 68% of the annual predicted total export volume, and the cumulative export shipment volume was 852,200 tons, accounting for 48% of the total annual signed volume [7]. - **Other Major Cotton - producing and Consuming Countries**: - **India**: In November, cotton yarn and textile exports were good. The Cotton Corporation of India has purchased 4.37 million tons of seed cotton this quarter. The company has acquired about 1.53 million tons of lint cotton. In November, raw cotton imports reached 169,600 tons, a record high in recent months. Raw cotton exports were 27,500 tons, a 13% increase from October but a 4% decrease from November 2024. Cotton yarn exports in November were 91,000 tons, slightly higher than in October and 5% higher than the same period last year. Textile exports in November reached $1.73 billion, a 12% increase both month - on - month and year - on - year [8]. - **Brazil**: As of January 26, cotton planting was 55% complete in Mato Grosso. As of January 24, the national cotton planting progress was about 61%, 14% ahead of the same period last year. Farmers' sales progress is relatively slow, and transportation costs have increased. Traders have purchased about 76% of the estimated 2025 production and locked in about 43% of the 2026 crop in advance [9][10]. - **Pakistan**: Cotton import demand continues to improve. Although yarn prices and demand have improved, spinning mills still face operational pressure. The central bank maintained the benchmark interest rate at 10.5%. Weak US cotton futures have boosted import demand, but higher basis quotes from some shippers have restricted new order transactions [10]. - **Bangladesh**: There is a need to pay attention to the possibility of spinning mill shutdowns. Cotton import demand was moderate last week. Some spinning mills are cautious due to the approaching general election. Enterprises may suspend operations for about three days during the February 12 election, which may cause production disruptions and delivery delays. The Bangladesh Textile Mills Association has warned of a suspension of spinning production if the government does not cancel the duty - free bonded warehouse policy for imported yarn [11]. - **Australia**: The estimated cotton output for the new season is 4.4 million bales (about 1 million tons), an 18% decrease from the previous season. The output reduction is mainly due to a decrease in planting area and water supply shortages. The market is concerned about rainfall [12]. - **Southeast Asian Textile Industry Startup Rates**: As of the week ending January 30, the startup rates of textile enterprises in India, Vietnam, and Pakistan were 69.5%, 67%, and 69% respectively, showing an upward trend [12]. 3.2.2 Domestic Cotton Situation - **Cotton Price and Transaction**: From January 30, domestic cotton futures and spot prices first rose and then fell. Spot trading was less active than last week, but some traders and textile mills still had good purchases. The sales basis of cotton spot continued to rise [13]. - **Cotton Warehouse Receipts**: As of January 30, there were 10,289 registered warehouse receipts and 1,084 pending warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 11,373 receipts, equivalent to 477,666 tons [13]. - **Spinning Mill and Weaving Mill Situation**: The spot quotation of pure - cotton yarn was generally stable with a slight increase, but the actual trading atmosphere was weak. The number of downstream factories on holiday increased, leading to a continuous contraction in new orders. Spinning mills' comprehensive startup rate continued to decline, and inventories continued to decrease. The grey - cloth market weakened, and manufacturers focused on collecting payments. Most weaving mills were cautious about the post - holiday market [14][15]. 3.3 Basic Data Charts The report provides 14 charts, including cotton sales progress, commercial inventory, spinning mill and weaving mill inventories, startup rates, profits, spreads, import profits, basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [16][17][18]. 3.4 Operational Suggestions Maintain the judgment that Zhengzhou cotton futures will show a moderately strong and volatile trend. It is recommended to trade the target price subsidy policy for the next three years and the new - year's output after the Spring Festival in combination with demand [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][3] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, short - term pre - holiday stocking supports cotton prices, but the domestic market faces downstream transmission and internal - external price difference pressures, with prices expected to fluctuate widely. Medium - to - long - term trends depend on the implementation of target price and area - reduction policies [2] - For sugar, short - to - medium - term sugar prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out, with attention on macro - sentiment and capital disturbances [2] - For pulp, despite overseas supply disruptions and rising foreign quotes, the domestic fundamentals improve insufficiently, and pulp prices are expected to continue to oscillate at low levels in the short term [3] Summary by Industry Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14,940 yuan/ton, up 375 yuan/ton (+2.57%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,618 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,933 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1] - Brazilian planting: As of January 24, the 2025/26 cotton planting in Brazil was 60.6% complete, up 24.3 percentage points month - on - month and 14.3 percentage points year - on - year [1] Market Analysis - International: In January, USDA lowered global cotton production and ending stocks, but the global supply - demand pattern is still loose, and US cotton export signing progress is slow. In the long - term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range [1] - Domestic: In the 25/26 season, domestic cotton production increased significantly, and commercial inventories rose seasonally. Before the Spring Festival, there was active stocking, but downstream new orders decreased, and finished - product inventories were high. The annual supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year [1] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5187 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton (+0.37%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5270 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5155 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Indian quota: India announced a February 2026 domestic sugar sales quota of 2.25 million tons, up 50,000 tons from January [2] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazilian sugar inventory is decreasing, and the first - quarter trade flow is in tight balance, supporting raw sugar prices. In the second quarter, supply will increase. In the long - term, the market expects a decline in the Brazilian sugar - making ratio and a reduction in Thai planting area [2] - Zhengzhou sugar: Guangxi sugar mills are in the peak - pressing period, and the fourth - quarter import supply pressure remains. The annual syrup import volume has decreased. The domestic sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation phase, with limited downward space [2] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5374 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (+0.60%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4965 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3] - Market: The import wood pulp spot market price was mainly stable, with only individual price drops [3] Market Analysis - Supply: There were many overseas pulp mill shutdown and maintenance news at the end of 2025, and foreign quotes increased, driving pulp prices to rebound. However, the global wood pulp inventory is still accumulating [3] - Demand: In November, the European port wood pulp inventory decreased month - on - month, but in China, despite a large number of finished - paper production capacity put into operation, the terminal demand was insufficient, and port inventories were at a historical high [3]