农产品日报 | 2025-08-26 郑棉走势震荡偏强，白糖延续窄幅波动 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约14120元/吨，较前一日变动+90元/吨，幅度+0.64%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价15100元/吨，较前一日变动-5元/吨，现货基差CF01+980，较前一日变动-95；3128B棉全国均价15235元/吨， 较前一日变动-8元/吨，现货基差CF01+1115，较前一日变动-98。 近期市场资讯，为保障纺织企业加工贸易用棉需要，现就2025年棉花关税配额外优惠关税税率加工贸易进口配额 （以下简称"滑准税加工贸易配额"）申领有关事项公布如下。2025年棉花进口滑准税加工贸易配额总量为20万吨， 实行凭合同申领的方式发放。当配额发放数量累计达到配额总量，将停止接收企业申请。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价偏强震荡。国际方面，8月USDA大幅下调全球棉花产量及期末库存，供需格局直接由偏松转为偏紧。 然而USDA对于部分增产国家的产量调整或尚未到位，而且今年各主产国供应端天气的叙事性不足，美棉产区旱情 也相对稳定，减产预期能否兑现还有待观察。不过美棉平衡表有望较此前明显改善， ...

、+** 棉花周报|2025-08-25 美联储主席暗示 9 月降息，商品市场氛围偏暖 郑棉周内表现先抑后扬，关注下游临近旺季表现 棉花周报 2025-08-25 第一部分国内外棉花市场基本 一、一周数据总览 主要商品及棉花价格 国内外主要棉花及商品价格指数 摘要： 截至 08 月 24 日 CRB 大宗商品价格指数小幅上涨，08 月 24 日收盘报 300 点，较 08 月 15 日累计上涨 4.46 点。08 月 24 日文华商品指数报 165.21，较 08 月 15 日下跌 1.11，跌幅为 0.67%。08 月 24 日，ICE 期棉主力 12 月合约报 68 美分/磅，较 08 月 15 日上涨 0.52 美分/磅，涨幅为 0.77%。截至 08 月 24 日当周郑棉主力 01 合约收盘报 14030 元/吨，较 08 月 15 日下跌 90 元/吨，持 仓累计增加 7288 手，至 48.5 万手。 本周郑棉期价走势表现为先抑后扬，周一周五期价重心下移，周五夜盘受 外部宏观环境影响价格显著反弹。从产业情况来看，陈棉库存整体偏紧处于历 史同期最低水平，新棉涨势良好，供应端即将到来的新棉收购情况仍待 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views - On August 22, the A-share market showed strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3800 points and reaching a ten-year high. The CSI 300 index also closed strongly, rising by 89.93 points compared to the previous day [1]. - The prices of various futures products are affected by different factors, including supply and demand, policies, and international market conditions. For example, the prices of coke and coking coal are influenced by production limits, inventory levels, and market sentiment; the price of sugar is affected by production forecasts in Brazil and India; the price of rubber is driven by the expectation of interest rate cuts; and the price of soybeans is supported by strong exports and good growth conditions [1][3][4]. - The market trends of different products vary, with some showing upward trends, some showing downward trends, and some remaining in a state of shock. For example, the prices of stock index futures, coke, and sugar showed upward trends; the price of coking coal showed a downward trend; and the prices of iron ore, asphalt, and logs showed a state of shock [1][2][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index Futures - On August 22, the A-share market continued its strong performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.45% to close at 3825.76 points; the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 2.07% to close at 12166.06 points; the ChiNext Index rose by 3.36% to close at 2682.55 points; and the STAR 50 Index rose by 8.59% to close at 1247.86 points. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 2546.7 billion yuan, an increase of 122.7 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On August 22, the weighted index of coke showed weak consolidation, with a closing price of 1677.0, a slight increase of 0.2 compared to the previous day. Due to the approaching of a major event, there are expectations of production limits in coking plants in the East China region. The seventh round of price increases for coke has improved coking profits, and the daily production of coking has increased slightly. The overall inventory of coke has continued to decline, and the purchasing willingness of traders is strong. The supply of carbon elements is abundant, and the downstream molten iron remains at a high level during the off-season. Market sentiment towards coal over - production inspections has increased, driving up the price of coke. The coke futures price has a premium, and the price is greatly affected by the expected "anti - involution" policy [1][3]. - Coking Coal: On August 22, the weighted index of coking coal showed weak fluctuations, with a closing price of 1156.4 yuan, a decrease of 0.9 compared to the previous day. The output of coking coal mines has increased, the flow - rate of spot auctions has slightly increased, the transaction price has decreased, and the terminal inventory has remained flat. The inventory at the production end has increased slightly, and it is necessary to observe whether the de - stocking continues [2][3]. Sugar - A survey of 10 traders and analysts shows that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 39.7 million tons, lower than the February forecast of 41.6 million tons and the previous season's 40.2 million tons. Analysts expect the sugar production in India in the 2025/26 season starting in October to be 32 million tons, higher than the 26.22 million tons in the 2024/25 season. Affected by this, the US sugar price stopped falling and rebounded slightly last Friday. Supported by the stabilization of the US sugar price and the role of funds, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract fluctuated slightly higher last Friday [3]. Rubber - Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting raised expectations of interest rate cuts, driving up the price of Shanghai rubber in the night session last Friday. As of August 22, the inventory of natural rubber in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 212,669 tons, a decrease of 519 tons compared to the previous day; the futures warehouse receipts were 178,470 tons, a decrease of 1460 tons compared to the previous day. The inventory of No. 20 rubber was 48,183 tons, a decrease of 1007 tons compared to the previous day; the futures warehouse receipts were 44,857 tons, a decrease of 1612 tons compared to the previous day [4]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, on August 22, the CBOT soybean futures rose further to a two - month high. Strong weekly exports and the rebound of soybean oil prices boosted the price of US soybeans. The ProFarmer survey results in six out of seven states showed that the number of soybean pods was higher than the average of the past three years, supporting the expectation of good yields and production of US soybeans. The good growth condition of US soybeans has improved the harvest outlook, and the probability of weather speculation has decreased as the weather window narrows. In the domestic market, on August 22, the M2601 main contract closed at 3088 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.8%. The supply of imported soybeans is sufficient, the soybean crushing volume remains high, the downstream提货 speed has accelerated, and the inventory accumulation rhythm at the oil mill end has slowed down. China's soybean orders for the fourth quarter are basically all from South America. The market's concern about the tight supply of soybean meal in the later period supports the price - holding power of soybean meal. Future attention should be paid to the weather conditions in the production areas and the situation of soybean imports [4][5]. Live Hogs - On August 22, the LH2511 main contract closed at 13,840 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.54%. On the supply side, in August, the production capacity is in the stage of concentrated realization, the supply of suitable - weight pigs has increased, and the slaughter plan of group pig enterprises has increased compared to the previous month, resulting in a relatively loose market supply. On the demand side, the national central pork reserve purchase plan has released a market - supporting signal, strongly boosting market confidence. Although the supply of pigs is sufficient, the demand in some areas has shown signs of recovery, and the slaughterhouse operating rate has moderately rebounded. With the approaching of the students' return to school and the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day double - festival stocking period, the terminal consumption is expected to further improve. However, the actual consumption recovery strength is still restricted by factors such as residents' consumption willingness and the economic environment, and dynamic tracking is required. Live hogs may show a wide - range shock trend, and future attention should be paid to the slaughter rhythm of live hogs and market demand [5]. Copper - At the macro level, the market will focus on the Fed's interest - rate stance from the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. If the Fed releases a hawkish signal, it may suppress the copper price. Fundamentally, as the "Golden September" peak season approaches, downstream enterprises may have pre - stocking needs, and the expected improvement in demand will support the price. However, the supply of copper mines has increased to some extent, and the supply of refined copper is also expected to increase slightly. The changes in the supply - demand situation still need to be monitored. In addition, although the global inventory level is low, significant changes in inventory will also affect the copper price [6]. Iron Ore - On August 22, the iron ore 2601 main contract closed down with a decline of 0.71% and a closing price of 770 yuan. Last week, the global shipment and arrival volume of iron ore both increased, the port inventory continued to accumulate, and the molten iron production continued to rise and remained at a high level. However, with the tightening of environmental protection policies in the north before the September military parade, there is an expectation of a reduction in molten iron production. In the short term, the iron ore price is in a shock trend [6]. Asphalt - On August 22, the asphalt 2510 main contract closed up with a rise of 0.81% and a closing price of 3483 yuan. Last week, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate decreased compared to the previous week. The terminal demand was limited by rainfall and funds, and there was no significant improvement in demand. The fundamentals lack an obvious one - sided driving force, and the asphalt price will mainly fluctuate in the short term [6]. Cotton - On Friday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14,155 yuan/ton. As of August 25, the minimum basis quotation of the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Trading Market was 1070 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 137 bales compared to the previous day [7]. Logs - On August 22, the 2509 contract of logs opened at 804, with a minimum of 797.5, a maximum of 807.5, and closed at 801, with a daily reduction of 1007 lots. Attention should be paid to the support at 800 and the resistance at 815. The spot price of 3.9 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong was 750 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged from the previous day, and the spot price of 4 - meter medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Jiangsu was 780 yuan/cubic meter, also unchanged from the previous day. The increase in the external market quotation has driven up the domestic futures price. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expected market sentiment for the price [7]. Steel - Currently, the focus is shifting from downstream finished products to upstream raw materials. On the one hand, the reduction in blast furnace production is not significant, the molten iron production is still increasing, the actual demand for raw materials has increased, the fundamentals of iron ore are acceptable, and the seventh round of coke price increases has been implemented. On the other hand, various information about coking coal has emerged, reviving the bulls, and there is a sign that the correction is over. However, it should be noted that the inventory pressure of finished products is still increasing, which will intensify the contradiction between raw materials and finished products, and this situation will continue. Attention should be paid to the de - stocking situation of finished products in the next two weeks [9]. Alumina - From the perspective of raw materials, due to the uncertainty of disturbances in the Guinea mining area and the concentrated shipments before the rainy season in Guinea, the arrival and import of domestic bauxite have increased, and the supply of domestic bauxite is relatively sufficient. In terms of supply, the operating capacity of domestic alumina has increased slightly, the operating rate remains high, and the opening of the import window has led to an increase in imports, resulting in an increase in the domestic alumina supply. In terms of demand, the demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum plants remains high. In the southwest region, the abundant water period from July to August has prompted electrolytic aluminum plants to resume production intensively, and the demand for alumina has also increased. Overall, the fundamentals of alumina may be in a situation of both supply and demand growth [9]. Aluminum - The price of alumina, the raw material, has slightly decreased, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum remains good, which has encouraged smelters to be more active in production. In terms of supply, the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum is approaching the industry limit, and the domestic output has only increased slightly due to the commissioning of some replacement production capacities. In terms of demand, the spot price of aluminum remains relatively strong, and the off - season has suppressed the downstream consumption sentiment. However, as the peak season approaches, downstream enterprises may have pre - stocking needs, and the consumption demand is expected to improve. In terms of inventory, affected by the off - season, the social inventory has slightly accumulated and is at a medium - low level. Overall, the fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a situation of stable and slightly increasing supply, temporarily weak demand but expected to recover [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][7][10] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, the global supply - demand pattern has shifted from loose to tight, but the market doubts the tight pattern. In China, short - term supply shortage supports cotton prices, but weak downstream demand limits the upside. In the medium - term, new cotton listing will suppress prices [2] - For sugar, the Brazilian sugar market has complex changes in exports. The domestic sugar market faces pressure from imported sugar, but potential delays in the new sugar - making season may lead to a price increase in the fourth quarter [4][6][7] - For pulp, the supply pressure remains in the second half of 2025, and the demand is weak both at home and abroad. The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [9][10] Summary by Product Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: Cotton 2601 contract closed at 14,100 yuan/ton yesterday, down 25 yuan/ton (-0.18%) from the previous day. Spot: 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 15,080 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton; the national average was 15,243 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton. India will exempt cotton import tariffs from August 19 - September 30 [1] Market Analysis - International: USDA cut global cotton production and ending stocks, but the market doubts the tight pattern, and ICE cotton is in a shock range. Domestic: Zhengzhou cotton rose with the external market. Short - term supply shortage supports prices, but weak downstream demand limits the upside. Medium - term, new cotton listing will bring new pressure [2] Strategy - Neutral. Low inventory and upcoming textile peak season support prices, but policy regulation and long - term industrial factors limit the upside [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: Sugar 2601 contract closed at 5,661 yuan/ton yesterday, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.19%) from the previous day. Spot: Sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,980 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,855 yuan/ton. In July 2025, Brazilian sugar exports decreased, while ethanol exports increased [4] Market Analysis - International: Brazilian sugar production and crushing data are mixed, and some institutions are lowering Brazilian sugar production estimates. Domestic: The sales progress of domestic sugar has slowed down, and the pressure of imported sugar is increasing [6] Strategy - Neutral. Pressured by processed sugar supply, Zhengzhou sugar will oscillate. In the medium - term, low inventory and potential delays in the new sugar - making season may lead to a price increase in the fourth quarter [7] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: Pulp 2511 contract closed at 5,178 yuan/ton yesterday, down 74 yuan/ton (-1.41%) from the previous day. Spot: Chilean silver star coniferous pulp in Shandong was 5,850 yuan/ton; Russian needle pulp was 5,200 yuan/ton. The imported wood pulp spot market was mostly stable, with some prices following the decline of the futures [8] Market Analysis - Supply: In the first half of 2025, wood pulp imports increased, and domestic production capacity will be put into operation in the second half. Port inventory is high, and supply pressure remains. Demand: Weak consumption in Europe and the US, and weak domestic demand due to the off - season. Terminal demand improvement in the second half of the year is limited [9] Strategy - Neutral. The pulp market fundamentals have not improved significantly, and the price is expected to continue to oscillate at a low level [10]

Group 1: Report Core View - The current low inventory of old cotton supports cotton prices, but downstream demand has not recovered, so short - term cotton price drivers are insufficient and may remain volatile. As the seasonal consumption peak approaches, downstream sales are expected to improve, and the cotton price center may rise with the recovery of demand. Attention should be paid to downstream inventory preparation and the adjustment of this week's USDA supply - demand forecast report [4] Group 2: Bullish Factors - This year, due to the increase in spinning capacity in Xinjiang and a significant reduction in imported cotton, the rigid consumption of downstream cotton has increased, the inventory of Xinjiang cotton has decreased rapidly, and the overall inventory level is low. As of the end of July, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in the country was 3.0882 million tons, a decrease of 0.6446 million tons from the end of June, which supports cotton prices [5] - As the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season approaches, downstream inventory - preparation willingness is expected to improve marginally [5] Group 3: Bearish Factors - Recently, the spinning profit of inland yarn mills has been poor, the overall load has further declined, the load of cloth mills has increased slightly, the number of sampling orders has increased slightly, but overall sales are still sluggish, and finished products have accumulated slightly [6] - The growth progress of new cotton in Xinjiang is fast, the flower positions are generally concentrated on the 9th, 10th, and 11th fruiting branches, and the overall growth is good. An optimistic outlook for the new - year's output is maintained [6] Group 4: Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0638 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0713 [3] - For inventory management with high inventory, to prevent inventory losses, short Zhengzhou cotton futures can be sold at 14,200 - 14,400 with a hedging ratio of 50%. Selling call options (CF601C14400) at 250 - 300 with a hedging ratio of 75% can also reduce costs and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3] - For procurement management with low regular inventory, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to rising cotton prices, Zhengzhou cotton futures can be bought at 13,600 - 13,800 with a hedging ratio of 50%. Selling put options (CF601P13600) at 200 - 250 with a hedging ratio of 75% can reduce procurement costs and lock in the spot cotton purchase price if the cotton price falls [3] Group 5: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,980, up 100 or 0.72% [7] - Cotton 05 closed at 13,910, up 80 or 0.58% [7] - Cotton 09 closed at 13,735, up 55 or 0.4% [8] - Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,980, up 180 or 0.91% [8] - Cotton yarn 05 closed at 20,070, down 100% (data may have an issue here) [8] - Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,995, up 95 or 0.48% [8] Group 6: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Spreads - The cotton basis was 1,197, down 284 [9] - The spread between Cotton 01 and 05 was 70, up 20 [9] - The spread between Cotton 05 and 09 was 175, up 25 [9] - The spread between Cotton 09 and 01 was - 245, down 45 [9] - The spread between cotton and cotton yarn was 5,985, down 30 [9] - The spread between domestic and foreign cotton was 1,776, down 52 [9] - The spread between domestic and foreign cotton yarn was - 567, unchanged [9] Group 7: Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was priced at 15,177, up 16 or 0.11% [10] - CCI 2227B was priced at 13,303, up 15 or 0.11% [10] - CCI 2129B was priced at 15,451, up 17 or 0.11% [10] - FCI Index S was priced at 13,617, up 17 or 0.13% [10] - FCI Index M was priced at 13,402, up 17 or 0.13% [10] - FCI Index L was priced at 13,102, unchanged [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend due to lack of substantial positive fundamental factors and concerns about over - estimated exports by USDA [19] - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to remain volatile. Factors such as stable downstream demand and low commercial cotton inventory support the futures, but potential "low - cost - performance" warehouse receipt deliveries in September, expectations of a bumper new crop and early listing, and a cooling financial market sentiment limit its short - term upward momentum [19] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情数据 - ICE cotton main contract opened at 66.36, reached a high of 67.72, a low of 65.88, and closed at 66.64, up 0.22 with a 0.33% increase. Trading volume was 116,642 lots, an increase of 2,926 lots, and open interest was 159,736 lots, an increase of 2,400 lots [4] - Zhengzhou cotton main contract opened at 13,585, reached a high of 13,730, a low of 13,535, and closed at 13,640, up 55 with a 0.40% increase. Trading volume was 640,948 lots, a decrease of 909,082 lots, and open interest was 260,796 lots, a decrease of 65,017 lots [4] - Cotton yarn main contract opened at 19,730, reached a high of 19,855, a low of 19,590, and closed at 19,605, down 135 with a 0.68% decrease. Trading volume was 30,490 lots, a decrease of 26,111 lots, and open interest was 17,053 lots, an increase of 12,743 lots [4] 3.2基本面 3.2.1国际棉花情况 - ICE cotton was weak and oscillating. It rose first and then fell this week. Short - covering at the beginning of the week drove the rebound, but lack of fundamental drivers, good growth of new US cotton crops, poor US cotton exports, and the decline of other agricultural products led to a decline in the second half of the week. After falling below 66 cents per pound, bargain - hunting buying emerged [5] - As of the week ending July 31, 2024/25 US upland cotton carried over 0.39 million tons weekly; 2025/26 US upland cotton signed 2.48 million tons weekly, with Vietnam signing 1.21 million tons and Peru signing 0.46 million tons. 2024/25 US upland cotton shipped 4.14 million tons weekly, a 21% week - on - week decrease and a 10% decrease from the four - week average [5] - In India, the sowing progress was slightly slower than last year. As of August 1, the cotton planting area was 10.6 million hectares, compared with 10.8 million hectares in the same period of 2024. The US will impose an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports on August 27 [6] - In Brazil, July exports were lower than expected. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso increased by about 8.5 percentage points to 18.3% this week, compared with 34.7% in the same period last year. Rain delayed the first - crop harvest and raised concerns about cotton quality, but was beneficial to the second - crop yield. In Bahia, the picking was progressing smoothly, and about 40% was completed. The average yield might be lower than expected, and the July export volume was expected to be about 127,000 tons [6] - In Turkey, textile enterprises faced multiple pressures and weak cotton demand. Since August 8, a 15% tariff has been imposed on Turkish exports to the US. The local textile and clothing industry faced high inflation, rising costs, and weak demand. The spinning mill operating rate was about 50% - 60% and might decline further [7] - In Pakistan, the tariff on exports to the US was lower than expected at 19%. As of July 31, the literal market volume was 593,821 bales, an increase of 296,000 bales from the first half of the month. When the US cotton futures price fell below 67 cents per pound, some buyers started to lock in supplies [9] - In Bangladesh, after the tariff on exports to the US was determined, orders recovered. The new additional tariff was 20% on top of the existing 16.5%, lower than the initially proposed 35%. The market's interest in US cotton increased, and some US clothing orders that were previously suspended began to resume [10] 3.2.2国内棉花情况 - Domestic cotton spot prices stabilized, and trading was light. In the week of August 8, spot trading was significantly lighter than last week, with only Monday having relatively good transactions. Spinning mills' procurement intention was weak, mainly for rigid demand [11] - As of August 8, there were 8,252 registered warehouse receipts and 330 pending warehouse receipts for No. 1 cotton, totaling 8,582 lots, equivalent to 360,444 tons. Among the 2024/25 registered warehouse receipts, there were 7,923 lots of Xinjiang cotton and 329 lots of local cotton [11] - The downstream situation improved slightly. The trading volume of the pure - cotton yarn market improved as the downstream gradually recovered. Spinning mills' quotations were mainly stable, with some offering discounts. The profit was gradually stabilizing. The cash - flow loss of inland spinning mills for C32S was about 500 yuan per ton, while Xinjiang spinning mills still had a small profit [12] - In the all - cotton grey fabric market, orders increased, but the overall demand had not improved significantly. The weaving factory operating rate was maintained at 40% - 50%, with partial recovery. The inventory of weaving factories decreased slightly but remained at a high level [12] 3.3基础数据图表 - The report provides charts on Xinjiang cotton cumulative processing volume, cotton commercial inventory (weekly), spinning mill cotton inventory (weekly), weaving mill yarn inventory (weekly), spinning enterprise cotton yarn inventory (weekly), cotton cloth enterprise cotton cloth inventory (weekly), yarn - spinning enterprise operating rate (weekly), cotton - cloth enterprise operating rate (weekly), pure - cotton yarn profit, pure - cotton cloth CGC32 profit, cotton 9 - 1 spread, cotton import profit, cotton basis, and Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts [14][15][16] 3.4操作建议 - ICE cotton is expected to maintain a low - level oscillating trend. Attention should be paid to whether the USDA August supply - demand report will raise the 2025/26 US cotton production and the weekly export data of new US cotton crops [19] - Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to remain volatile. Attention should be paid to policy trends, the delivery game of the 09 contract, the expected opening price of new cotton for the 01 contract, and the actual downstream demand [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The current decline in cotton prices is conducive to the outflow of high-premium warehouse receipts, but the expectation of tight supply and demand of cotton at the end of the domestic year remains unchanged, which may still strongly support cotton prices. In the short term, cotton prices may gradually enter a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the implementation of the domestic import quota policy, the de-stocking speed of cotton in the off-season, and the adjustment of the Sino-US trade agreement [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast and Risk Management Strategies - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0638 and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.0713 [3] - For inventory management with high inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 14,200 - 14,400 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell call options (CF509C14400) at 180 - 220 with a 75% hedging ratio [3] - For procurement management with low regular inventory and hopes to purchase based on orders, it is recommended to buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) at 13,600 - 13,700 with a 50% hedging ratio, and sell put options (CF509P13600) at 100 - 150 with a 75% hedging ratio [3] Core Contradictions - The decline in cotton prices is beneficial for the outflow of high - premium warehouse receipts, but the tight supply - demand situation at the end of the domestic year may support prices, and the short - term trend may be volatile. Key factors to watch include import quota policies, off - season de - stocking speed, and Sino - US trade agreement adjustments [4] 利多解读 - High tariffs have led to a significant decline in cotton imports this year, and reserve cotton has not been sold. As of July 15, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in the country was 3.4245 million tons, with an expected tight - balance state at the end of the year. Also, the late pricing by textile mills supports cotton prices [5] 利空解读 - Mainland textile mills have reduced their overall load due to squeezed spinning profits, while Xinjiang mills'开机 is stable. Downstream finished - product inventory has slightly decreased but still faces pressure. Xinjiang's new cotton is in the peak flowering and boll - setting stage, with good growth and an optimistic production outlook for the new year [8] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,820, up 15 (0.11%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,775, up 15 (0.11%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,655, down 20 (-0.15%); Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,735, up 30 (0.15%); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,845, up 20 (0.1%) [7][9] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Price Spreads - Cotton basis was 1,514, up 36; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 45, unchanged; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 120, up 35; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 165, down 35; Cotton - yarn spread was 6,085, down 65; Domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,766, up 57; Domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 536, unchanged [10] Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was 15,169, up 16 (0.11%); CCI 2227B was 13,302, up 15 (0.11%); CCI 2129B was 15,457, up 22 (0.14%); FCI Index S was 13,577, down 165 (-1.2%); FCI Index M was 13,387, down 164 (-1.21%); FCI Index L was 13,086, down 189 (-1.42%) [11]

Report Overview - The report provides market analysis and price trends for various futures products on July 31, 2025, including stock index futures, coke, coal, sugar, rubber, etc. [1] Stock Index Futures - On July 31, A-share market indices declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.18% to 3573.21, the Shenzhen Component Index down 1.73% to 11009.77, and the ChiNext Index down 1.66% to 2328.31. The trading volume reached 1936 billion yuan, an increase of 91.8 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index also adjusted, closing at 4075.59, down 75.65. [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke weighted index was weak on July 31, closing at 1625.7, down 84.4. Coking coal weighted index trended weakly, closing at 1100.1 yuan, down 93.1. Coke supply and demand remained in tight balance, with coking plants' costs rising due to coal price increases. The fourth round of price increases was quickly implemented this week, and the fifth round started. Steel mills intended to delay the implementation. Coking coal's macro - speculation sentiment cooled. The supply shortage was expected to ease in mid - August. [3][4][5] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by strong sugar production signs in Brazil, ICE sugar futures declined slightly on Wednesday. Zhengzhou sugar futures' 2601 contract was pressured by factors such as the decline of ICE sugar and lower spot prices, and it trended down on Thursday. Stonex reported that the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 2025/26 season was expected to be 40.16 million tons, and the sugarcane crushing volume was expected to be 598.8 million tons. [5] Rubber - Due to the expected decrease in rainfall in Thailand and the year - on - year decline in the European replacement tire market in the second quarter, the spot prices in Southeast Asia decreased. Affected by this and the decline of Japanese rubber, Shanghai rubber futures trended down on Thursday. ANRPC predicted that in June 2025, global natural rubber production would decrease by 1.5% to 1.191 million tons, and consumption would increase by 0.7% to 1.271 million tons. In the first half of the year, cumulative production decreased by 1.1% to 6.076 million tons, and cumulative consumption increased by 1% to 7.715 million tons. [6] Soybean Meal - On July 31, CBOT soybean futures declined due to favorable crop weather in the US and sufficient global supply. The unexpectedly improved good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans weakened the expectation of production reduction. US soybean export sales in the week ended July 24 were higher than expected. In the domestic market, soybean meal futures oscillated. The supply was abundant, and inventory continued to increase, pressuring prices. However, the extension of the tariff truce agreement between China and the US supported prices. [7] Live Pigs - On July 31, live pig futures trended weakly. Recently, the slaughter sentiment of farmers was strong, and the supply of pigs was abundant. Affected by official regulations, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening decreased. High - temperature weather affected terminal consumption, and the pork market was sluggish. The overall market was in a state of loose supply and demand. [8] Palm Oil - On July 31, palm oil futures fluctuated at a high level and then declined. The main contract P2509 closed with a negative line. Ship - surveying agencies showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 31 decreased compared with the previous month. [8] Shanghai Copper - Due to the US imposing a 50% tariff on some imported copper products starting from August 1, COMEX copper futures crashed, and Shanghai copper was negatively affected. Global copper inventory was rising, and factors such as the slowdown of the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the strengthening of the US dollar suppressed copper prices. Shanghai copper was expected to continue its downward oscillation. [9] Iron Ore - On July 31, the main contract of iron ore 2509 oscillated and declined by 2.38%, closing at 779 yuan. Global iron ore shipments increased, arrivals decreased, port inventory increased slightly, and iron - water production remained high. However, the domestic macro sentiment cooled, and iron ore prices were in an oscillatory state. [9] Asphalt - On July 31, the main contract of asphalt 2509 oscillated and rose by 0.3%, closing at 3659 yuan. Asphalt production capacity utilization increased. Although demand recovery was slower than expected due to rainfall, there was still a recovery expectation, and low inventory supported prices. Short - term prices would fluctuate. [9] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13655 yuan/ton. On August 1, the basis price at the Xinjiang designated delivery warehouse of the National Cotton Exchange was at least 430 yuan/ton, and cotton inventory decreased by 115 lots compared with the previous day. [10] Logs - On July 31, the 2509 log futures contract opened at 824, with a low of 819, a high of 830, and closed at 821.5, with a position reduction of 754 lots. The market faced high - level pressure. Spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. There was no significant contradiction in supply - demand, and spot trading was weak. [11] Steel - On July 31, rb2510 closed at 3205 yuan/ton, and hc2510 closed at 3390 yuan/ton. The production and inventory of the five major steel products increased, and the apparent demand decreased significantly. Macro factors led to the decline, and there was a risk of spot price correction. [11] Alumina - On July 31, ao2509 closed at 3222 yuan/ton. Anti - involution measures had limited impact on clearing old - style alumina production capacity. In August, a 1.2 - million - ton new production line in Guangxi might be put into operation, and some maintenance lines in Shandong might resume production. The supply shortage might ease, but the actual output increase in August was expected to be limited. [12] Shanghai Aluminum - On July 31, al2509 closed at 20510 yuan/ton. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged, and the US dollar index remained strong. Domestic anti - involution policies drove up industrial metals. In the short term, the ingot - casting volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased, demand weakened, and social inventory increased slightly but remained low. Shanghai aluminum might oscillate at a high level. [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - With the rising price center, some high-cost old cotton resources are flowing into the market, downstream sales are poor, and there is an expectation of a bumper harvest in the far - month. So, the upside of cotton prices is limited. However, before the new cotton is launched, the tight domestic cotton inventory will strongly support cotton prices. Attention should be paid to the implementation of domestic import quota policies, the de - stocking speed of cotton during the off - season, and the adjustment of the China - US trade agreement [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Price Forecast - The predicted monthly price range of cotton is 13,600 - 14,400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 0.0638 and a current volatility historical percentile (3 - year) of 0.0713 [3] Risk Management Strategies Inventory Management - For enterprises with high inventory worried about cotton price decline, they can short Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 14,200 - 14,400 to lock in profits and cover production costs. They can also sell call options (CF509C14400) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 180 - 220 to collect premiums and lower costs and lock in the spot selling price if the cotton price rises [3] Procurement Management - For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, they can buy Zhengzhou cotton futures (CF2509) with a 50% hedging ratio at an entry range of 13,600 - 13,700 to prevent the rise of procurement costs. They can also sell put options (CF509P13600) with a 75% hedging ratio at an entry range of 100 - 150 to collect premiums and lower procurement costs and lock in the spot purchase price if the cotton price falls [3] Market Analysis Bullish Factors - Due to high tariffs, this year's cotton imports have dropped significantly, reserve cotton has not been sold, and the de - stocking speed of Xinjiang cotton is fast. As of July 15, the total industrial and commercial cotton inventory in China was 3.4245 million tons, and the end - of - year supply is expected to be in a tight - balance state. Also, the post - pricing of textile mills supports cotton prices [5] Bearish Factors - Mainland spinning mills have further reduced their overall load due to squeezed spinning profits, while Xinjiang spinning mills' operation is stable, supporting rigid cotton consumption. Although the downstream finished product inventory has slightly decreased, there is still some pressure. Currently, Xinjiang's new cotton is in the full - bloom and boll - setting stage, with a fast growth progress and good overall growth, so there is an optimistic expectation for the new - year output [8] Futures Price and Spread Cotton and Cotton Yarn Futures Prices - Cotton 01 closed at 13,840, down 65 (-0.47%); Cotton 05 closed at 13,775, down 75 (-0.54%); Cotton 09 closed at 13,650, down 105 (-0.76%); Cotton yarn 01 closed at 19,710, up 10 (0.05%); Cotton yarn 05 closed at 0, down 20,100 (-100%); Cotton yarn 09 closed at 19,770, down 100 (-0.5%) [7][9] Cotton and Cotton Yarn Spreads - The cotton basis was 1,825, up 170; Cotton 01 - 05 spread was 55, down 5; Cotton 05 - 09 spread was 95, up 55; Cotton 09 - 01 spread was - 150, down 50; The cotton - yarn spread was 6,095, down 25; The domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,964, up 122; The domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 550, down 21 [10] Domestic and Foreign Cotton Price Indexes - CCI 3128B was priced at 15,580, down 29 (-0.19%); CCI 2227B was priced at 13,670, down 29 (-0.21%); CCI 2129B was priced at 15,873, down 39 (-0.25%); FCI Index S was priced at 13,930, up 18 (0.13%); FCI Index M was priced at 13,738, up 17 (0.12%); FCI Index L was priced at 13,454, up 17 (0.13%) [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [3][5][8] 2. Report's Core View - The global cotton market in the 25/26 season is expected to have a supply - loose pattern. Zhengzhou cotton prices are restricted in their upward space, and new cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices. Sugar prices will mainly fluctuate in the short - term and trend downward in the long - term. Pulp prices are affected by supply pressure and weak demand, and it's difficult to break away from the bottom in the short - term [2][5][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,925 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton (-1.07%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,431 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,580 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton [1] - As of July 27, the budding rate of U.S. cotton was 80%, 6 percentage points slower than last year; the boll - setting rate was 44%, 8 percentage points slower than last year; the good - quality rate was 55%, 5 percentage points higher than last year and the five - year average [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the international cotton market lacks clear direction. The 25/26 global cotton market will be supply - loose. U.S. cotton prices are expected to fluctuate. Domestically, cotton commercial inventory is depleting fast, but new cotton is expected to be abundant, and terminal demand is weak. New cotton listing in the fourth quarter will suppress prices [2] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou cotton has an upward trend, but the supply is sufficient in the new year, and the upward space is limited [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,867 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (+0.38%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,915 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - Analysts expect the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the first half of July to be 48.3 million tons (up 11.3% year - on - year), sugar production to be 3.3 million tons (up 12.5% year - on - year), and ethanol production to be 2.19 billion liters (up 2.3% year - on - year) [4] Market Analysis - The global sugar market is in an increasing - production cycle, suppressing ICE raw sugar prices. However, the narrow sugar - alcohol price difference and Indian policies may lead to short - term rebounds. In China, domestic sugar sales are fast, but imports may suppress prices. New sugar listing will increase downward pressure [5] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate in the short - term and trend downward in the long - term [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,374 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (+0.26%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,940 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,360 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - The prices of imported wood pulp showed different trends. Some softwood pulp prices declined, some hardwood pulp prices were in a stalemate, and some chemical mechanical pulp prices increased [6] Market Analysis - Pulp prices fluctuated. The anti - involution policy boosted the market, but supply pressure remains as imports increased in the first half of 2025 and domestic production capacity will increase. Demand is weak both at home and abroad, and terminal demand improvement is limited in the second half of the year [7] Strategy - Neutral. Short - term price increases are driven by macro - sentiment, and there is a chance to short at high prices after the macro - stimulus ends [8]