1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has a significant impact on the global energy supply, with a sharp decline in oil exports from Middle - Eastern countries. The Fed maintains the federal funds rate, and the market is affected by multiple factors such as inflation expectations and geopolitical risks [6][7]. - Different sectors in the market show various trends. For example, in the agricultural products sector, there are differences in supply - demand relationships and price trends for different products; in the energy - chemical sector, prices are affected by factors like the Middle - East situation and supply - demand balance; in the financial market, A - share markets have certain investment opportunities after risk release, but short - term uncertainties remain [11][15][22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals - **Price Changes**: On March 26, 2026, compared with March 25, 2026, among chemical products, methanol had the largest increase of 1.942% (from 3,089.00 to 3,149.00), and benzene had the largest decrease of 1.217% (from 10,105.00 to 9,982.00) [4]. 3.2 Macro News - **Middle - East Situation**: The attack on Iranian energy facilities by the US and Israel has led to a sharp increase in the risk of attacks on Middle - East energy facilities. Iran has retaliated, and the conflict has severely impacted the global energy supply, with a significant drop in oil exports from Middle - Eastern countries [6]. - **Fed's Decision**: The Fed maintains the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% - 3.75%, with a more conservative approach to future interest rate cuts, reflecting a cautious stance in the face of multiple risks [7]. - **China - US Relations**: China and the US will continue to communicate about Trump's visit to China [8]. - **Land Policy**: China is conducting a second - round pilot project to extend land contracts for another 30 years, emphasizing the protection of collective ownership and the prevention of "non - agricultural" and "non - grain" use of land [8]. 3.3 Main Variety Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - **Sugar**: The domestic sugar market is under short - term supply pressure, but the international market has a tightening supply expectation. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of long - term contracts at low prices, with a support level of 5400 yuan/ton and a resistance level of 5450 yuan/ton [11]. - **Corn**: The corn price is in a weak - oscillating trend. The supply pressure may increase in the short term, and the support level is in the range of 2350 - 2380 yuan/ton [11]. - **Peanut**: The peanut price is in a high - level oscillation. The supply is tight, and the demand is divided. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations, with a resistance level around 8200 yuan [11]. - **Pig**: The pig price is declining. The supply is sufficient, and the market is pessimistic. It is advisable to reduce short positions [11][13]. - **Egg**: The egg price is stable with a slight upward trend. The supply is sufficient, but there is also support at the bottom. It is recommended to conduct intraday operations [13]. - **Jujube**: The jujube market is in a seasonal consumption off - season. The supply exceeds demand, and it is recommended to conduct intraday range operations [13]. - **Cotton**: The cotton price is in a strong - oscillating trend. The supply is slightly affected by the import quota, and the demand is improving. It is advisable to go long on dips, with a support level around 15300 yuan [13]. 3.3.2 Energy - Chemicals - **Caustic Soda**: The price of caustic soda is rising, and there is an expectation of increased exports. However, attention should be paid to the risk of near - term contract correction [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The price of coking coal is stable with a slight increase, and the first - round price increase of coke has not been responded to by steel mills. The price is in an oscillating adjustment [15]. - **Double - offset Paper**: The supply of double - offset paper is recovering, but the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate, with a resistance level in the 4220 - 4230 area and a support level of 4180 yuan [15]. - **Urea**: The urea market is in a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to continue high - level consolidation in the range of 1780 - 1950 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3.3 Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The prices of gold and silver are rising due to factors such as the tense Middle - East situation and the Fed's interest - rate cut signal. They are in a high - level oscillation, and attention should be paid to risks [15][17]. - **Copper and Aluminum**: The prices of copper and aluminum are following the market correction. It is recommended to wait patiently for the price to stop falling and stabilize [17]. - **Alumina**: The domestic supply of alumina is large, but there are concerns about the supply of bauxite from Guinea. It is advisable to take a long - position approach on dips and be vigilant against macro risks [17]. - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: The steel market's supply - demand structure is improving, but the steel price is slightly under pressure in the short term and is expected to have a small - scale oscillating adjustment [17]. - **Ferroalloys**: The prices of ferroalloys are strong, mainly due to the energy premium caused by the geopolitical conflict. It is advisable to take a long - position approach on dips, but be cautious about the risk of chasing high prices [17][19]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate has broken through the previous high. It is not advisable to chase high prices. It is recommended to look for long - position opportunities on price corrections, with a resistance level of 161500 yuan and a support level of 158000 yuan [19]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - **Stock Index Options**: On March 25, A - share indexes rose, and different stock index options showed different trends in volume and open interest. Trend investors can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can take corresponding strategies according to price changes [19]. - **Stock Index**: On March 25, the three major indexes oscillated and rose. The A - share market has investment opportunities after risk release, but short - term uncertainties remain. It is advisable to control positions and participate in the rebound [19][22].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for cotton: Neutral to bullish [3] - Investment rating for sugar: Neutral [6] - Investment rating for pulp: Neutral [8] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Cotton: The global cotton supply - demand pattern in the current year is generally loose, but it is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season. The domestic cotton production increased significantly in the 25/26 season, and the consumption increment due to the expansion of downstream spindle capacity is obvious. The domestic new - crop has a production reduction expectation, and the medium - to - long - term cotton price center is expected to rise [2] - Sugar: The international situation affects the sugar price. The new - season sugar production ratio in Brazil may decrease, but the sufficient industrial supply limits the upside. In China, the sugarcane harvest is delayed, the production increase is higher than expected, and the import volume from January to February has increased significantly [5] - Pulp: The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026. The domestic demand for pulp is expected to improve compared with last year, but the port inventory remains high [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 15,280 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton or 0.43% from the previous day. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,440 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,592 yuan/ton, down 57 yuan/ton. The US 2025/26 cotton grading inspection data shows that 83.3% of the 0.26 - million - ton graded cotton from March 13 to 19 met the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements, and 81.7% of the 3.0508 - million - ton cumulative graded cotton met the requirements [1] Market Analysis - International: The global supply - demand pattern is loose this year, but tightens in the 26/27 season. The northern hemisphere is entering the key planting period, with uncertainties in area reduction and weather. - Domestic: The 25/26 domestic cotton production increased significantly, and the consumption increment is obvious. The "Golden March and Silver April" peak season has good expectations, and the commercial inventory is being depleted quickly. The new - crop in Xinjiang has a production reduction expectation [2] Strategy - Neutral to bullish. The short - term upside is limited by the internal - external price difference and policy - issued quotas. Focus on the new - year target price policy, planting area reduction, and possible reserve - releasing policies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5453 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 0.26% from the previous day. - Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5470 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5330 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton. Pakistan extended the tax - free and low - tax policies for sugar imports until February 28, 2026 [4] Market Analysis - International: The US - Iran conflict continues to escalate, and the new - season sugar production ratio in Brazil may decrease, pushing up the raw sugar futures price. The external market is greatly affected by the international situation, and the sufficient supply limits the upside. - Domestic: The sugarcane harvest is significantly delayed, the production increase is higher than expected, the industrial inventory is high, and the sugar import volume from January to February has increased significantly [5] Strategy - Neutral. The continuous upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar weakens due to oversupply, but it is difficult to fall deeply under the influence of the Middle - East situation. Treat it with a shock - trading mindset in the short term [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5188 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton or 0.46% from the previous day. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5190 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4825 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton. The import wood pulp spot market price continued to rise [7] Market Analysis - Supply: The overseas new - production capacity has been limited in the past two years, and major overseas softwood pulp mills have announced production - cut and production - conversion plans. The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026. - Demand: A large amount of finished - paper production capacity has been put into operation in China in the past two years, but the terminal demand is insufficient. The downstream paper mills' raw - material procurement is cautious. In 2026, the paper production capacity is still expanding, and the demand for pulp is expected to improve [7] Strategy - Neutral. The pulp fundamentals remain weak, and the port inventory remains high. The short - term pulp price may remain in a low - level consolidation [8]

Group 1: Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The main contract closed at 527.8, up 43.5 or 8.98% from the previous settlement. The trading volume was 190,029 lots, an increase of 45,717 lots. The open interest was 44,601 lots, with a net increase of 5,628 lots [2]. - PTA: The main contract closed at 5,552, up 336 or 6.44%. The trading volume was 2,276,096 lots, an increase of 1,336,643 lots. The open interest was 1,467,484 lots, with a net increase of 20,629 lots [2]. - PX: The main contract closed at 7,836, up 496 or 6.76%. The trading volume was 514,606 lots, an increase of 259,452 lots. The open interest was 277,536 lots, with a net increase of 5,048 lots [2]. - Rubber: The main contract closed at 17,245, up 155 or 0.91%. The trading volume was 364,042 lots, an increase of 145,215 lots. The open interest was 170,621 lots, with a net decrease of 3,594 lots [2]. - NR: The main contract closed at 13,870, up 85 or 0.62%. The trading volume was 65,365 lots, an increase of 12,794 lots. The open interest was 31,588 lots, with a net decrease of 6,492 lots [2]. Group 2: Metals - Copper: The main contract closed at 103,850, up 1,030 or 1.00%. The trading volume was 175,311 lots, an increase of 17,830 lots. The open interest was 199,587 lots, with a net decrease of 4,212 lots [17]. - Aluminum: The main contract closed at 24,465, up 760 or 3.21%. The trading volume was 483,091 lots, an increase of 164,840 lots. The open interest was 277,833 lots, with a net increase of 19,143 lots [17]. - Zinc: The main contract closed at 24,850, up 275 or 1.12%. The trading volume was 186,884 lots, an increase of 82,336 lots. The open interest was 95,630 lots, with a net increase of 756 lots [17]. - Nickel: The main contract closed at 140,890, up 1,520 or 1.09%. The trading volume was 554,437 lots, an increase of 55,750 lots. The open interest was 219,113 lots, with a net increase of 369 lots [17]. - Tin: The main contract closed at 444,010, up 12,760 or 2.96%. The trading volume was 462,888 lots, an increase of 71,755 lots. The open interest was 49,946 lots, with a net decrease of 5,846 lots [17]. - Alumina: The main contract closed at 2,773, up 16 or 0.58%. The trading volume was 365,789 lots, a decrease of 181,123 lots. The open interest was 344,018 lots, with a net decrease of 33,878 lots [17]. - Industrial silicon: The main contract closed at 8,325, up 20 or 0.24%. The trading volume was 202,748 lots, a decrease of 63,533 lots. The open interest was 334,292 lots, with a net increase of 5,876 lots [17]. - Lithium carbonate: The main contract closed at 172,020, down 1,660 or -0.96%. The trading volume was 227,061 lots, a decrease of 54,919 lots. The open interest was 378,336 lots, with a net decrease of 3,216 lots [17]. Group 3: Agricultural Products - Live hogs: The main contract closed at 11,220, down 220 or -1.92%. The trading volume was 97,976 lots, an increase of 27,200 lots. The open interest was 165,149 lots, with a net increase of 9,894 lots [21]. - Corn: The main contract closed at 2,384, up 37 or 1.58%. The trading volume was 951,555 lots, an increase of 426,449 lots. The open interest was 1,502,061 lots, with a net increase of 26,583 lots [21]. - Soybean meal: The main contract closed at 2,826, down 2 or -0.07%. The trading volume was 905,873 lots, an increase of 185,687 lots. The open interest was 1,942,859 lots, with a net decrease of 85,078 lots [21]. - Rapeseed meal: The main contract closed at 2,295, up 10 or 0.44%. The trading volume was 487,190 lots, an increase of 158,121 lots. The open interest was 909,258 lots, with a net increase of 516 lots [21]. - Soybean oil: The main contract closed at 8,260, up 34 or 0.41%. The trading volume was 328,276 lots, an increase of 86,230 lots. The open interest was 656,400 lots, with a net decrease of 10,210 lots [21]. - Rapeseed oil: The main contract closed at 9,359, up 151 or 1.64%. The trading volume was 248,126 lots, an increase of 102,219 lots. The open interest was 268,810 lots, with a net increase of 10,866 lots [21]. - Palm oil: The main contract closed at 8,898, up 142 or 1.62%. The trading volume was 489,772 lots, an increase of 110,156 lots. The open interest was 387,932 lots, with a net decrease of 5,670 lots [21]. - Eggs: The main contract closed at 3,242, down 16 or -0.49%. The trading volume was 141,502 lots, a decrease of 13,045 lots. The open interest was 122,413 lots, with a net decrease of 11,753 lots [21]. Group 4: Others - Glass: The main contract closed at 1,043, down 9 or -0.86%. The trading volume was 1,624,477 lots, an increase of 942,426 lots. The open interest was 1,365,461 lots, with a net increase of 151,479 lots [12]. - Soda ash: The main contract closed at 1,188, up 3 or 0.25%. The trading volume was 1,270,083 lots, an increase of 512,115 lots. The open interest was 1,141,408 lots, with a net increase of 3,450 lots [12]. - Methanol: The main contract closed at 2,365, up 176 or 8.04%. The trading volume was 2,857,069 lots, an increase of 1,987,533 lots. The open interest was 942,819 lots, with a net decrease of 34,450 lots [12]. - PP: The main contract closed at 6,998, up 396 or 6.00%. The trading volume was 888,436 lots, an increase of 481,027 lots. The open interest was 498,613 lots, with a net increase of 8,140 lots [12]. - Sugar: The main contract closed at 5,345, up 31 or 0.58%. The trading volume was 353,834 lots, a decrease of 23,874 lots. The open interest was 469,987 lots, with a net decrease of 3,352 lots [26]. - Zheng cotton: The main contract closed at 15,225, down 105 or -0.68%. The trading volume was 461,720 lots, an increase of 39,923 lots. The open interest was 794,512 lots, with a net decrease of 43,468 lots [26]. - Cotton yarn: The main contract closed at 21,100, down 125 or -0.59%. The trading volume was 11,204 lots, a decrease of 2,110 lots. The open interest was 14,198 lots, with a net decrease of 296 lots [26]. - Apples: The main contract closed at 9,896, up 108 or 1.10%. The trading volume was 91,817 lots, a decrease of 18,121 lots. The open interest was 130,604 lots, with a net increase of 1,829 lots [26]. - Red dates: The main contract closed at 8,840, up 5 or 0.06%. The trading volume was 71,523 lots, a decrease of 24,143 lots. The open interest was 116,270 lots, with a net decrease of 1,655 lots [26]. - Corn starch: The main contract closed at 2,694, up 35 or 1.32%. The trading volume was 158,988 lots, an increase of 67,317 lots. The open interest was 244,396 lots, with a net increase of 12,884 lots [26]. - European container shipping: The main contract closed at 1,429, up 186 or 15.00%. The trading volume was 81,309 lots, an increase of 49,246 lots. The open interest was 46,243 lots, with a net increase of 8,998 lots [26].

Group 1: Middle East Tensions - Intense clashes occurred between Pakistan and Afghanistan along their border, with Pakistan claiming to have killed 36 Afghan armed personnel, while Afghanistan reported 55 Pakistani soldiers killed [3][19][20] - The conflict escalated with Pakistan conducting airstrikes in response to Afghan military actions, which included capturing 15 Pakistani military outposts [20] - The border region has seen intermittent fighting since October 2022, despite previous ceasefire agreements mediated by Qatar and Turkey [5][20] Group 2: Iran-US Negotiations - Iran's Foreign Minister announced significant progress in the third round of indirect negotiations with the US, with technical discussions scheduled to continue in Vienna [6][21] - Iran insists on retaining its right to peaceful nuclear technology and demands the lifting of US sanctions, while the US may require the dismantling of key nuclear facilities [7][22] - The negotiations are crucial for regional stability and have implications for global oil markets [10][26] Group 3: Military Deployments - Satellite images revealed the deployment of 11 US F-22 stealth fighters to Israel, marking a significant military presence in the region [8][23] - The F-22s are advanced aircraft with capabilities for both air-to-air and air-to-ground combat, valued at over $15 billion for the deployed units [9][25] Group 4: Cotton Market Trends - The global cotton market is experiencing a recovery, with prices rising after a period of low volatility, driven by improved macroeconomic conditions and demand expectations [12][28] - The USDA has projected a decrease in global cotton production and ending stocks for the 2026/2027 season, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance [13][29] - Domestic textile production is rebounding, with operating rates in Xinjiang's textile enterprises reaching 85%-90%, further supporting cotton prices [14][30]

Group 1: Middle East Tensions - Intense clashes occurred between Pakistan and Afghanistan along their border, with Pakistan claiming to have killed 36 Afghan militants, while Afghanistan reported 55 Pakistani soldiers killed [3] - The conflict escalated with Pakistan conducting airstrikes in response to Afghan military actions, which included capturing 15 Pakistani military outposts [3] - This border conflict is part of a series of skirmishes that have taken place since October of the previous year, despite previous attempts at a ceasefire mediated by Qatar and Turkey [4] Group 2: Iran-US Negotiations - Iran's Foreign Minister announced that the third round of indirect negotiations with the US has made significant progress, with both sides nearing consensus on certain issues [6] - Technical discussions are scheduled to take place in Vienna, indicating ongoing diplomatic efforts to address nuclear concerns [6] - Iran insists on retaining its right to peaceful nuclear technology and opposes transferring its enriched uranium abroad, while the US may demand the dismantling of key nuclear facilities [7] Group 3: Military Deployments - The deployment of 11 US F-22 stealth fighters to Israel marks a significant military presence in the region, valued at over $1.5 billion [9] - The F-22 is noted for its advanced capabilities, including air-to-air and air-to-ground combat, and is the first aircraft capable of sustained supersonic flight without afterburners [9] Group 4: Cotton Market Trends - The global cotton market is experiencing a recovery, with prices rising after a period of low volatility, driven by improved macroeconomic sentiment and marginally better fundamentals [13] - The USDA has projected a 3.2% decrease in global cotton production for the 2026/2027 season, indicating a tightening supply-demand balance [14] - Domestic cotton demand is expected to increase as textile companies resume normal operations post-holiday, with production rates in Xinjiang reaching 85%-90% [15]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [3][7][9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the USDA's outlook for the 2026/27 season indicates a tightening supply - demand pattern globally, with reduced production, increased consumption, and lower ending stocks. In China, the textile market is expected to resume trading, and long - term cotton prices may rise due to reduced planting area in Xinjiang [2] - For sugar, the short - to - medium - term global sugar surplus will suppress prices, but long - term supply has potential positive factors. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and import policy changes may support the market [5] - For pulp, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease in 2026, and the demand is expected to improve compared to last year, but the high port inventory may keep prices in a low - level consolidation [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 15,380 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton (+0.62%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,037 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 657; the national average price was 16,329 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 949. From February 13 to 19, the US graded and inspected 16,100 tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, with 77.2% meeting ICE delivery requirements [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the 2026/27 global cotton production is expected to be 25.26 million tons (down 3.2% year - on - year), consumption 26.15 million tons (up 1.2% year - on - year), and ending stocks 15.5 million tons (down 5.2% year - on - year). Domestically, the textile market is expected to resume trading, and long - term cotton prices may rise due to reduced planting area in Xinjiang [2] Strategy - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton may be volatile and slightly stronger, but the short - term uptrend may be suppressed by the internal - external price difference [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5,248 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton (+0.36%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,330 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR05 + 82; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,170 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR05 - 78. The NFCSF in India called for an increase of 600 million liters in the B - heavy molasses ethanol quota [4] Market Analysis - The short - to - medium - term global sugar surplus will suppress the raw sugar price, but long - term supply has potential positive factors. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and import policy changes may support the market [5] Strategy - After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of increased domestic sugar production, and the price may bottom out again. Import sugar policy changes also need attention [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5,348 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+0.15%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,375 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP05 + 27; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,965 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP05 - 383. The import wood pulp spot market prices were strong but with sparse transactions [7] Market Analysis - In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease, and the demand is expected to improve compared to last year, but the high port inventory remains a problem [8] Strategy - The pulp price may remain in a low - level consolidation in the short term due to limited improvement in fundamentals and high port inventory [9]

Cotton Market Insights - The cotton futures contract closed at 15,285 CNY/ton, an increase of 545 CNY/ton or 3.70% from the previous day [2][14] - The spot price for 3128B cotton in Xinjiang was 15,789 CNY/ton, down by 31 CNY/ton, while the national average was 16,070 CNY/ton, down by 18 CNY/ton [2][14] - The USDA report forecasts a global cotton production of 25.26 million tons for the 2026/27 season, a decrease of 3.2% year-on-year, with consumption expected to rise by 1.2% to 26.15 million tons [3][15] Market Analysis - The cotton market is expected to tighten due to reduced global supply and increased demand, with the USDA's outlook being optimistic [3][15] - Domestic textile markets are anticipated to gradually recover as operations resume, contributing to higher cotton consumption [3][15] - The planting area for Xinjiang cotton is projected to decrease, which may lead to a long-term upward shift in cotton prices [4][15] Strategy - The market outlook is neutral, with expectations of a strong performance in the cotton market during the traditional peak season, although short-term price increases may face pressure from price differentials [5][16] Sugar Market Insights - The sugar futures contract closed at 5,229 CNY/ton, an increase of 18 CNY/ton or 0.35% from the previous day [6][17] - Thailand's sugar production for the 2025/26 season is projected to decrease by 4.83% year-on-year, with a total sugar production of 683.56 million tons [6][17] Market Analysis - The sugar market is currently experiencing a surplus, which is expected to continue to suppress prices in the short to medium term [7][18] - Domestic sugar production is expected to increase, but sales data indicates lower-than-expected pre-holiday stockpiling [7][18] Strategy - The outlook for sugar is neutral, with attention needed on domestic production pressures and potential changes in import policies [8][19] Pulp Market Insights - The pulp futures contract closed at 5,340 CNY/ton, an increase of 80 CNY/ton or 1.52% from the previous day [9][20] - The market for imported wood pulp is showing signs of strength, although actual trading activity remains limited [10][21] Market Analysis - Global wood pulp supply pressures are expected to ease due to reduced new capacity and production cuts from major suppliers [11][22] - Despite an increase in paper production capacity, demand remains weak, leading to high inventory levels at domestic ports [11][22] Strategy - The market outlook for pulp is neutral, with prices likely to remain stable in the short term due to high inventory levels [12][22]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current market sentiment is optimistic, but the post - Spring Festival downstream operating rate is unknown. Therefore, the pre - holiday Zhengzhou cotton futures price is oscillating strongly at a high level. After the festival, focus on the downstream operating rate and the new cotton target price policy that may be announced in March or April. The strategy is to try going long at the lower edge of the oscillation range [3][20]. Group 3: Summary by Related Content Downstream Consumption and Price Movement - In December last year, due to the significantly higher operating rate of the downstream industry chain in the off - season compared to the same period of the previous year and the expectation of a reduction in the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in the next year, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price increased by 6.58%. From January to mid - February this year, the price continued to move sideways at a high level, and there may still be an upward trend in the future from a technical chart perspective [5]. - In the peak seasons of September and October last year, the operating rate of the downstream industry chain did not increase month - on - month, and the cotton price declined due to the expectation of increased production. However, in the off - seasons of November and December, the operating rate did not show a seasonal decline and remained at a relatively high level. As of the week of February 6, the spinning mill operating rate was 60.5%, 10 percentage points higher than the same period last year; the weaving mill operating rate was 19.4%, 7.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year [5]. Inventory and Procurement - As of the end of January, the national commercial cotton inventory was 5.79 million tons, 40,000 tons more than the same period last year; the industrial inventory was 1 million tons, 20,000 tons more than the same period last year. Since October 2025, the industrial inventory has continued to increase from 890,000 tons to the current 1 million tons, indicating high procurement enthusiasm of downstream spinning mills [5]. Import Situation - Currently, the domestic - foreign price difference has reached the highest level since 2014, with a very high import profit. The import profit with a 1% tariff exceeds 3,500 yuan/ton, and the import profit with a sliding - scale tariff is close to 2,500 yuan/ton. However, the increase in actual import volume is not large. In December 2025, China imported 180,000 tons of cotton, an increase of 40,000 tons year - on - year; in 2025, the cumulative import of cotton was 1.08 million tons, a decrease of 1.56 million tons year - on - year; from August 2025 to July 2026, the cumulative import of cotton was 560,000 tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons year - on - year [6]. - In December 2025, China imported 170,000 tons of cotton yarn, an increase of 20,000 tons year - on - year; in 2025, the cumulative import of cotton yarn was 1.5 million tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons year - on - year; from August 2025 to July 2026, the cumulative import of cotton yarn was 720,000 tons, an increase of 110,000 tons year - on - year. Brazil exported 115,000 tons of cotton to China in January, an increase of 46,000 tons year - on - year and a decrease of 31,000 tons month - on - month; from August 2025 to July 2026, Brazil's cumulative export of cotton to China was 478,000 tons, an increase of 96,000 tons year - on - year. As of January 22, 2025/26, the United States' cumulative export of cotton to China was 97,400 tons, a decrease of 66,000 tons year - on - year [6]. USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report - The February USDA monthly supply - demand report is neutral. The estimated global output for the 2025/26 season is 26.1 million tons, an increase of 100,000 tons from the January estimate and 300,000 tons more than the previous season. The increase in output is from China, with an estimated output of 7.62 million tons in February, an increase of 100,000 tons from the January estimate. The estimated global consumption is 25.85 million tons, a decrease of 40,000 tons from the January estimate and 50,000 tons less than the previous season. The estimated global ending inventory is 16.35 million tons, an increase of 130,000 tons from the January estimate and 290,000 tons more than the previous season. The estimated global inventory - to - consumption ratio is 62.27%, an increase of 0.63 percentage points from the January estimate and 1.25 percentage points more than the previous season. The estimated export volume of the United States is adjusted down by 40,000 tons to 2.61 million tons compared to January, while the estimates of China, Brazil, and India change little [19].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [2][5][6] Group 2: Core Views - **Cotton**: The 25/26 global cotton supply-demand pattern is loose, with slow US cotton export sign - up. The short - term ICE US cotton will likely remain low - level volatile, and the medium - to - long - term downward space is limited. In China, the 25/26 cotton production increased significantly, and the supply - demand is expected to be balanced. There may be a tight inventory situation at the end of the year. The short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trade within a range [1] - **Sugar**: The 25/26 global sugar market is in a surplus pattern, and the raw sugar futures price will maintain a weak low - level consolidation. The long - term supply has potential positive factors. Zhengzhou sugar will likely fluctuate before the Spring Festival, and the downward space of sugar prices is limited [4] - **Pulp**: In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease, and the demand is expected to improve compared to last year. However, the overall improvement in the pulp fundamentals is limited, and the short - term pulp price may remain low - level consolidation [5][6] Group 3: Market News and Key Data - **Cotton**: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14,745 yuan/ton, up 90 yuan/ton (+0.61%). The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,756 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton. The national average price of 3128B cotton was 16,029 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan/ton. As of February 6, the new cotton sowing progress in Mato Grosso, Brazil, reached 90%, 22 percentage points higher than the previous week and faster than last year's 80%. As of the end of January, the 2026 new cotton sales progress in Mato Grosso was about 55% [1] - **Sugar**: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5,266 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton (-0.23%). The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi, was 5,330 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price in Kunming, Yunnan, was 5,175 yuan/ton, unchanged. The US 2025/26 sugar production is expected to be 9.41 million short tons, including 5.102 million short tons of beet sugar and 4.308 million short tons of cane sugar. The sugar inventory/consumption ratio is estimated to be 15.9% [3] - **Pulp**: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5,236 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (+0.65%). The spot price of Chilean Arauco silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,310 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot price of Russian softwood pulp in Shandong was 4,885 yuan/ton, unchanged. The import wood pulp spot market price mostly remained stable, with individual prices slightly loosening [5] Group 4: Market Analysis - **Cotton**: Internationally, the short - term ICE US cotton will remain low - level volatile, and the long - term downward space is limited. Domestically, the supply - demand is expected to be balanced in the medium - to - long - term, but there may be tight inventory at the end of the year. The key factors to watch are the reduction of planting area and the target price subsidy policy [1] - **Sugar**: The raw sugar futures price will maintain a weak low - level consolidation in the short - to - medium - term, and there are potential positive factors in the long - term. Zhengzhou sugar will likely fluctuate before the Spring Festival, and the downward space of sugar prices is limited [4] - **Pulp**: In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure will ease, and the demand is expected to improve. However, the port inventory is high, and the overall improvement in fundamentals is limited [5] Group 5: Strategies - **Cotton**: In the short - term, Zhengzhou cotton is expected to trade within a range. Key factors to watch are the reduction of new - year planting area and the target price subsidy policy [1][2] - **Sugar**: Adopt an idea of bottom - building through fluctuations in the short - to - medium - term. Key factors to watch are the macro situation and domestic import sugar control policies [5] - **Pulp**: The short - term pulp price may remain low - level consolidation. The overall improvement in fundamentals is limited [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-share market shows a rebound, with the Spring Festival market possibly continuing and a general rise expected; focus on the supplementary increase elasticity of weighted indexes [7] - Bond market sentiment improves, and the short - term rebound trend may continue, but the odds have significantly decreased [8] - Black commodities such as steel and iron ore are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and some high - position short orders of iron ore can be held in the medium term [11] - Double - coke prices may fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production at coal mines and the recovery of downstream demand after the Spring Festival [13] - For iron alloys, manganese ore has strong short - term support, manganese silicon is in an oscillatory range, and silicon iron can be a long - allocation variety in the medium term [14] - For soda ash and glass, it is advisable to wait and see currently, focusing on the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new capacity reaching production [15] - Copper prices are mainly in a wide - range oscillation in the short term, and fundamentals still support prices [16] - Carbonate lithium is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and opportunities for buying on dips after the correction can be concerned [17] - Industrial silicon and polysilicon are in an oscillatory state, with limited downward adjustment space for industrial silicon and polysilicon oscillating widely [18] - Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be in a high - level consolidation state, and short - term trading is recommended [20] - Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate and rebound, and short - term trading in the low - position range before the Spring Festival is recommended [23] - For eggs, it is recommended to reduce positions and wait and see before the Spring Festival, and pay attention to the impact of chicken culling and molting after the festival on second - quarter contracts [25] - High - quality apple supplies may continue to be strong, and the futures price may run strongly [26] - Corn prices are expected to be stable before the Spring Festival, and opportunities after the festival should be concerned [28] - Red dates are expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the market performance during the consumption peak season [29] - The spot price of live pigs is lower than expected, and the near - month contract may decline further [30] - Crude oil prices are expected to have limited room for rebound and mainly oscillate [32] - Fuel oil prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices [33] - Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly, and caution should be exercised to prevent correction risks [34] - Rubber is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and short - selling out - of - the - money put options or low - level accumulation can be considered [35] - Synthetic rubber may correct before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to opportunities for long - buying after the festival [36] - Methanol's fundamentals are slightly improved in the long term, but caution should be exercised due to uncertainties in the Middle East situation [37] - Caustic soda can be considered from a long - biased perspective for the time being [38] - Asphalt will fluctuate with crude oil prices and is stronger than crude oil [39] - PVC may enter a correction stage later, and caution should be exercised [40] - The polyester chain is expected to follow crude oil prices to oscillate and adjust in the short term, and inter - variety arbitrage opportunities of long TA and short EG can be considered [42] - LPG prices will follow crude oil prices, and caution should be exercised in trading [43] - Pulp prices have limited downward space in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [44] - Log prices may decline under the expectation of supply exceeding demand after the festival, and attention should be paid to position control [44] - Urea futures should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [45] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Based on Fundamental Judgments - **Trend Bearish**: No specific varieties mentioned - **Oscillating Bearish**: Eggs, red dates, etc. [2][29] - **Oscillating**: Coke, PTA, etc. [4] - **Oscillating Bullish**: Caustic soda, glass, etc. [2][15] - **Trend Bullish**: No specific varieties mentioned 3.2 Based on Quantitative Indicators - **Bearish**: Sugar, coke, etc. [4] - **Oscillating**: Hot - rolled coils, eggs, etc. [4] - **Bullish**: Rebar, glass, etc. [4] 3.3 Macro Information - The first inspection in the "15th Five - Year Plan" period highlights the importance of technological self - reliance [10] - The stock exchanges optimize refinancing measures, focusing on high - quality listed companies and the technology innovation field [10] - The Chinese government makes a solemn statement on the Japanese prime minister's expected continued tenure [10] - Chongqing introduces a package of real - estate policies, including purchase subsidies [10] - The first global humanoid robot free - fighting league is launched [10] - Goldman Sachs reports that the global memory market will face a severe supply shortage from 2026 - 2027 [10] - The US plans to lower tariffs on Bangladeshi goods [10] - The US employment growth data is expected to slow down [10] - The Japanese prime minister plans to promote food tax cuts [10] 3.4 Macro Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: The Spring Festival market may continue, and there is a possibility of a general rise. Focus on the supplementary increase elasticity of weighted indexes [7] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market sentiment improves, and the short - term rebound trend may continue, but the odds have significantly decreased [8] 3.5 Black Commodities - **Screw and Ore**: The trading rhythm is earlier this year. Steel inventories may be high after the festival. Iron ore supply is abundant, and the overall is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [11] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Double - coke prices may oscillate and consolidate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resumption of production at coal mines and the recovery of downstream demand after the Spring Festival [13] - **Ferroalloys**: Manganese ore has strong short - term support, manganese silicon is in an oscillatory range, and silicon iron can be a long - allocation variety in the medium term [14] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: It is advisable to wait and see currently, focusing on the supply stability of leading enterprises and the progress of new capacity reaching production [15] 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Copper prices are mainly in a wide - range oscillation in the short term, and fundamentals still support prices [16] - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and opportunities for buying on dips after the correction can be concerned [17] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon has limited downward adjustment space, and polysilicon oscillates widely [18] 3.7 Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be in a high - level consolidation state, and short - term trading is recommended [20] - **Sugar**: Zhengzhou sugar is expected to oscillate and rebound, and short - term trading in the low - position range before the Spring Festival is recommended [23] - **Eggs**: It is recommended to reduce positions and wait and see before the Spring Festival, and pay attention to the impact of chicken culling and molting after the festival on second - quarter contracts [25] - **Apples**: High - quality apple supplies may continue to be strong, and the futures price may run strongly [26] - **Corn**: Corn prices are expected to be stable before the Spring Festival, and opportunities after the festival should be concerned [28] - **Red Dates**: Red dates are expected to oscillate weakly, and attention should be paid to the market performance during the consumption peak season [29] - **Live Pigs**: The spot price of live pigs is lower than expected, and the near - month contract may decline further [30] 3.8 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Crude oil prices are expected to have limited room for rebound and mainly oscillate [32] - **Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil prices will fluctuate with crude oil prices [33] - **Plastics**: Polyolefins are expected to oscillate weakly, and caution should be exercised to prevent correction risks [34] - **Rubber**: Rubber is expected to oscillate before the Spring Festival, and short - selling out - of - the - money put options or low - level accumulation can be considered [35] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Synthetic rubber may correct before the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to opportunities for long - buying after the festival [36] - **Methanol**: Methanol's fundamentals are slightly improved in the long term, but caution should be exercised due to uncertainties in the Middle East situation [37] - **Caustic Soda**: Caustic soda can be considered from a long - biased perspective for the time being [38] - **Asphalt**: Asphalt will fluctuate with crude oil prices and is stronger than crude oil [39] - **PVC**: PVC may enter a correction stage later, and caution should be exercised [40] - **Polyester Chain**: The polyester chain is expected to follow crude oil prices to oscillate and adjust in the short term, and inter - variety arbitrage opportunities of long TA and short EG can be considered [42] - **LPG**: LPG prices will follow crude oil prices, and caution should be exercised in trading [43] - **Pulp**: Pulp prices have limited downward space in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [44] - **Logs**: Log prices may decline under the expectation of supply exceeding demand after the festival, and attention should be paid to position control [44] - **Urea**: Urea futures should be treated with an oscillatory mindset [45]