Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Crude oil and its downstream products are closely related to the production, processing, transportation, and consumption of most agricultural products. Fluctuations in crude oil prices can impact the cost and supply - demand balance of agricultural products, thereby affecting their prices. The prices of crude oil and most agricultural product futures are strongly correlated. [3][8] - If crude oil prices remain strong in the near future, products such as oils, sugar, and cotton are likely to continue to perform strongly. If the positive factors from the macro - environment and crude oil fade later, products like soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and corn may face greater downward pressure. [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Overview of the Correlation between Crude Oil and Agricultural Product Futures - Crude oil has a strong correlation with the prices of agricultural products that can provide bioenergy, such as oils, soybeans, soybean and rapeseed meal, corn, cotton, and wheat. Due to differences in domestic and international market environments, the correlation between crude oil and Zhengzhou sugar is lower than that of raw sugar. Crude oil has a certain correlation with the prices of eggs and peanuts, and little correlation with apples and pigs. [8] - Based on the correlation coefficient between WTI crude oil prices and the closing prices of domestic and international agricultural product futures, crude oil has the strongest correlation with domestic three major oils, soybeans (No. 2), soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and overseas products like US soybeans, US soybean oil, US corn, US cotton, US wheat, and Malaysian palm oil, with correlation coefficients generally reaching 0.7. It has a relatively strong correlation with domestic soybeans (No. 1), corn, corn starch, cotton, and overseas US soybean meal and No. 11 sugar, with correlation coefficients between 0.5 and 0.7. The correlation coefficients between crude oil and the prices of eggs and peanuts are 0.44 and 0.35 respectively, and those with apples and pigs are 0.1 and 0.08 respectively. [9] 2. Correlation between Crude Oil and the Oil and Oilseed Market - In the agricultural product futures market, the oil and oilseed sector has the strongest correlation with crude oil prices. The transmission medium is biodiesel. When crude oil prices rise or are high, the production and sales of biodiesel are expected to increase, leading to increased demand for vegetable oils and tighter supply - demand balance, thus enhancing the upward momentum of oil prices. When crude oil prices fall or are low, the opposite occurs. The BOHO and POGO indicators are used to judge the price advantage of biodiesel. The production and sales of biodiesel are also greatly affected by government policies. [11] - In 2024, the total biodiesel production of major producing and consuming countries was about 48.3 billion liters, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%. Biodiesel consumption of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil accounted for 18.9%, 19.78%, and 25% of their respective global production, and the total consumption of the three vegetable oils by biodiesel accounted for 20% of their total production. [14] - Soybeans and soybean meal, as raw materials and related products of soybean oil, also have a strong correlation with crude oil prices. If the positive factors from the macro - environment and crude oil fade, the price of domestic soybean meal may face a greater decline. Oils are likely to follow crude oil and perform strongly before the trend of crude oil prices reverses. [15] 3. Correlation between Crude Oil and the Cotton Market - Crude oil affects the cotton market through substitution effects, production cost transmission, and macro - sentiment. The medium is chemical fiber. The correlation coefficients between crude oil prices and PTA, MEG, and PF prices are 0.64, 0.38, and 0.81 respectively. Chemical fiber and cotton are strong substitutes. When crude oil prices are low, the cost of chemical fiber is low, and its substitution for cotton increases, putting downward pressure on cotton prices. The opposite is true when crude oil prices are high. [22] - Since 2026, Zhengzhou cotton has been oscillating strongly, driven by the expected tightening of global cotton supply - demand, the expected decline in the planting area of Xinjiang cotton, the arrival of the traditional peak season, and the rise in crude oil prices. If crude oil prices remain strong, it will continue to benefit cotton prices. If the positive factors fade, Zhengzhou cotton may be more resilient. [24] 4. Correlation between Crude Oil and the Sugar Market - The medium connecting crude oil and the sugar market is sugar - based ethanol. When crude oil prices are low, the production and sales of fuel ethanol are expected to decrease, and sugar production will increase, leading to a looser sugar supply and downward pressure on sugar prices. When crude oil prices are high, the opposite occurs. The correlation coefficient between WTI crude oil and No. 11 sugar prices is 0.52, indicating a strong correlation. [30] - Due to the mainly edible use of domestic sugar and the relatively low proportion of imported sugar, the correlation between Zhengzhou sugar and crude oil prices is low, with a correlation coefficient of 0.25. If crude oil prices remain strong, it will benefit sugar prices. If the positive factors fade, the impact on Zhengzhou sugar may be limited. [33][35] 5. Correlation between Crude Oil and the Corn Market - Crude oil price changes have a great impact on the supply - demand balance of the corn market. When crude oil prices fall, the production and sales of fuel ethanol are expected to decrease, reducing corn demand and putting downward pressure on corn prices. The opposite is true when crude oil prices rise. The correlation coefficient between WTI crude oil and CBOT corn prices is 0.75, and that between WTI crude oil and domestic corn prices is 0.65. The correlation coefficient between domestic and US corn prices is 0.84. [37][39] - If the positive factors from the macro - environment and crude oil fade, the price of corn may face downward pressure due to factors such as phased grain sales pressure, policy - based grain supply, and wheat substitution pressure. [39] 6. Correlation between Crude Oil and Other Agricultural Product Markets - Crude oil has a certain positive correlation with the prices of eggs and peanuts, with correlation coefficients of 0.44 and 0.35 respectively. The correlation with eggs is mainly due to transportation costs and macro - sentiment. The correlation with peanuts is due to the impact of crude oil on oils and transportation costs. [43][46] - Apples and pigs are self - produced and self - sold products, with little correlation with crude oil prices, and their correlation coefficients are 0.11 and 0.08 respectively. [46]