Group 1 - The recent focus in the foreign exchange market is on the movement of the US dollar, with the dollar index showing slight fluctuations, currently at 98.38, down 0.08% from the opening price of 98.46 [1] - According to ThuLan Nguyen, a foreign exchange analyst at Deutsche Bank, the Federal Reserve's future plans regarding the size of its balance sheet are becoming a key factor influencing the direction of the US dollar [3] - Nguyen emphasizes that recent positive signals from the market indicate support for accelerating the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction process, which had slowed since spring 2024 [3] Group 2 - If the Federal Reserve decides to accelerate the balance sheet reduction, particularly by adjusting its asset holdings, it will impact liquidity in the financial system and market interest rates [3] - This adjustment may lead to a new characteristic in monetary policy, with interest rates likely to remain low, supporting economic growth [3] - Nguyen notes that the combination of "loose rates and tight liquidity" may weaken the expected stimulative effect of rate cuts, potentially providing support for the US dollar in the medium term [3] Group 3 - From a technical analysis perspective, the current short-term resistance for the dollar index is in the 98.85-98.90 range, with significant resistance at 99.10-99.15 [4] - Short-term support is observed in the 98.30-98.35 range, with important support at the 98.00-98.05 level [4] - The dollar index is currently fluctuating within a critical technical range, with market participants closely monitoring breakout signals to determine future direction [4]