Core Viewpoints - The recent pressures in the US funding market were caused by the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction, the US Treasury's TGA fund replenishment, and seasonal fluctuations [2][5] - After experiencing liquidity tightening due to these factors, the funding market pressures have significantly eased, indicating that liquidity stress is now manageable [5][6] Funding Market Dynamics - The repo market indicators showed increased spreads during September and October due to month-end pressures and TGA fund replenishment, but these spreads have since decreased in November [3][5] - The increase in spreads between the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) and the interest on reserves balance (IORB) reflected liquidity tightening, but current levels are still below those seen during the 2019 repo market crisis [3][5] Use of Liquidity Tools - Financial institutions had been using the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) more frequently during September and October due to liquidity pressures, but usage has declined significantly since the end of October [4][5] - The SRF is designed to support effective monetary policy implementation and stabilize short-term rates during liquidity stress [4] Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to end balance sheet reduction on December 1 is expected to further alleviate funding market pressures [6] - The Fed plans to reinvest proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed securities into short-term Treasury securities, which will help stabilize its balance sheet and mitigate liquidity risks [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that factors such as the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction, the replenishment of the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA), and seasonal fluctuations have led to some pressure signals in the U.S. funding market. However, liquidity pressure has significantly eased since November, and further relief is expected after the Fed stops its balance sheet reduction on December 1 [1]. Group 1 - The U.S. funding market experienced pressure signals due to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction and TGA replenishment [1] - Several U.S. repo market spread indicators have shown a decline since the end of October, indicating a recovery in liquidity conditions [1] - Current liquidity pressure in the funding market is manageable, suggesting a stabilization in the financial environment [1] Group 2 - The cessation of the Fed's balance sheet reduction on December 1 is anticipated to further alleviate funding market pressures [1]

然后今天暴跌，大家也不用找我们自身的原因，这个原因是全球性的，那就是全球流动性杀，体现为股票跌、黄金跌、币跌，独独美元指数，又上100 了。 这种全球性的流动性杀带来的下跌，看似凶险，但是是有解的，最怕的全球性下跌是全球衰退带来的，这种就是漫长的阴跌，才真正叫可怕。 那么当前这波全球流动性杀起源于哪，又将在什么时候结束？ 01全球流动性的由来 这波全球流动性杀始于美国政府的停摆，之前在《全球暴跌，A股独涨，这是什么逻辑？》那篇文章里详细讲了美国政府停摆对流动性的杀伤。美国政府 停摆导致财政部大量应该花向市场的钱没有流动出去，美国的短融市场立即感受到了压力，因而短融市场利率飙升。 随后给流动性一击的是10月30日凌晨美联储的议息会议。惯例美联储发布决议内容后，就是鲍威尔的新闻发布会。但在我们这边时间凌晨2点35左右时， 鲍威尔原来在读稿子，这时却抬了头补充道："9月和10月的降息是出于风险管理，但12月是否继续降息，现在完全不确定，远未成定局。" 当然，那个时候市场还不是那么相信12月会不降息，降息的概率依然非常高，市场基本是认定还是会降息的。 然后是11月4日晚上美国参议院拨款方案没有通过的消息时间。在这之前 ...

②英伟达强劲的Q3财报数据以及Q4指引，或有助于平息"AI泡沫论"。叠加阿里将于11月25日公布财 报。 ①近期"AI泡沫论"+美元市场流动性紧张（美政府停摆+12月降息概率走低），港股科技股承压下跌。 ②恒生科技指数年内涨幅超20%的情况下，机构倾向于锁定利润，转而关注稳定性更高的红利资产。③ 港股年初IPO和配售个股迎来解禁期。 但积极因素同样在积累： ①恒生科技指数10月以来持续回调，自10月3日至今累计回调幅度超18%。 受隔夜超预期的9月非农数据+美股跳水下跌，今日港股全线低开，恒生科技指数跌2.21%，恒生互联网 ETF、恒生科技指数ETF分别跌2%和1.6%。 资金却选择越跌越买，恒生科技指数ETF自10月30日-11月20日的16个交易日连续获资金净申购，合计 净流入额44.72亿元，期内下跌10.11%。恒生互联网ETF同样上演16日净流入，合计净流入25.18亿元， 期内下跌10.24%。 港股近期持续调整的原因： ③美联储12月1日暂停缩表+9月非农数据虽超预期，但美联储更关注的失业率连续三个月上升。 相关产品，及截至发稿涨跌幅： 港股全科技赛道：恒生科技指数ETF(513180)，-1 ...

黄金昨天坐楼梯爬升后，突发跳水，直接坐上了过山车。直线跳水后，今天迎来二度闪跌，整体跌超90 美金，大起大落，持续高位调整，争夺4100关口。 昨天4129附近，再次空单获利。 今天的走势 下方回落，看向4040，看两个区域范围内的调整。 下方若持续回调，下穿4040，继续看向4000的关口的支撑。 昨天高台跳水，闪崩跌穿4100后。 今天反弹不延续，又是二度跳水。 直接跌至4040，迎来快涨调整。 快涨快跌，调整为主。 上方可看4100的关口，再上破，看向4142的阻力。 当然了，不破4100，继续承压调整。 黄金9月刷新高后，上演单边抛物线涨势，10月加速刷历史新高后。上演疯狂跳水过山车。到本月横盘 后，多头再度爆发，二度过山车跳水，走出两座大山，双山压制，重回调整区域，上方可调整空间，看 向4160的区域。下方再次回调，可看向4000的关口。 操作方面，黄金接连跳水，继续看承压调整，关注4142和4100做空的机会。此外，黄金下方面临关键支 撑区域，关注4040和4000做多的机会。 昨天主要因素： 一方面，美失业金爆雷，一个大的风险悄悄临近，美政府停摆1个月多月，美失业金多数大幅上修，裁 员数据剧增， ...

今天分享的是：2025美元流动性的三维度观测 报告共计：16页 美元流动性三维度观测：压力积聚但危机可控 在全球金融体系中，美元流动性的变化始终是市场关注的焦点。近日，一份研究报告从三个关键市场出发，系统性地分析了美 元流动性的现状与未来走势。该研究构建了一个三维观测矩阵，分别从联邦基金市场、回购市场和离岸美元市场切入，通过规 模、价格和政策三个维度，全面评估美元流动性的真实状况。 联邦基金市场作为美元流动性的基石，其核心观测指标已从"价格"转向"规模"。在充裕准备金框架下，银行体系的准备金总量 直接反映了基础美元的充裕程度。数据显示，尽管美联储自2022年6月开启新一轮缩表，总资产规模趋势性走低，但得益于逆回 购工具的缓冲作用，银行体系准备金尚未被大幅抽离。截至2025年9月，准备金总量维持在3.2万亿美元，占银行总资产比重为 12.9%，处于相对充裕区间。然而，随着缩表持续进行，财政部一般账户余额回升，以及隔夜逆回购工具规模濒临枯竭，准备金 正面临收缩压力，预计将向美联储设定的流动性警戒线逼近。 回购市场作为美元流动性的重要枢纽，其价格指标SOFR与数量指标一级交易商行为成为观测重点。担保隔夜融资利率通常 ...

真是太离谱了，美国政府竟然能把关门这事一直拖下去，最新一次的拨款法案又没通过，这已经是第14 次了！ 现在的停摆时间已经超过了2018年特朗普创下的35天纪录，难道有人真想连这个纪录都超越吗？ 不过咱们不能光看热闹。停摆几天可能影响不大，可现在已经持续一个多月了，这必然会波及全球市 场，所以我们的钱包也不能掉以轻心。 甚至有人说，美国政府的停摆效果相当于美联储进行了多轮加息，这可能引发一场流动性危机。你觉得 这个说法有道理吗？可以在评论区分享你的看法。 其实，这并不是危言耸听。 先来看看这次停摆的具体情况：起因是美国两党在医保补贴问题上争得不可开交。一方想延长补贴，一 方想削减开支、裁员，结果双方谁也没让步，但政府的钱已经用光了，只能从10月1号开始关门。 而且特朗普趁机搞裁员，两党也在比谁先认输。虽然今年7月债务上限已经提高，短时间停摆不会导致 债务违约，但两边依然你来我往，拨款法案在参议院被连续否决十几次。 自由的美利坚真是让人目瞪口呆。两党在纸上争斗，为中期选举铺路，你说东我必往西，就是为了显得 自己强硬，其实根本不顾百姓受不受影响，只要自己没事就行。 新闻显示，这场停摆搞得一团乱麻：约75万联邦雇员被 ...

2、美联储停止缩表尚停留在口头上，还没进入实际操作。 最近24小时，全球共有 197,244 人被爆仓 ，爆仓总金额为 $7.53 亿！美股昨日大跌，BTC也创出了新低，但跌幅并不大，ETH未创新低。目前似乎还没到 底，接下来要看小时级别止跌是否有效，然后就看日线是否止跌反弹，如果继续震荡下跌，就要参考下一个震荡区间了。 | 爆仓热力图 | 1小时 | 4小时 | 12小时 24小时 | | 市种 | | 交易所 总爆仓 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | r | | | | 其他 $5936.39万 | | SOL | 1小时爆仓 श्रे क $5184.3 | $645.34万 $384.57万 | 4小时爆仓 है के | $5776.63万 $2306.76万 | | | | | | | | | 空集 | $260.77万 | 空氣 | $3469.87万 | | $2.73亿 | | | | XRP | | | 12小时爆仓 | $6.15亿 | 24小时爆仓 | $7.53亿 ...

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market experienced a 6.1% decline in October, marking the first "red October" since 2018, following a deleveraging shock [1] - Despite the overall market pressure, BNB rose by 6.2% due to the launch of popular projects and the tokenization of a money market fund by China Merchants Bank [1] - Major tokens such as SOL, ADA, and DOGE saw declines exceeding 10% [1] Market Performance - The total value locked (TVL) in DeFi decreased by 4.85% [1] - The market capitalization of stablecoins increased by 3.54% [1] - Institutional demand for ETH remains strong, with treasury holdings reaching 5% of total supply [1] Future Outlook - The report suggests that November may see a recovery in market sentiment, with attention on the potential benefits from the end of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction and improvements in US-China relations [1]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the **U.S. repurchase (repo) market** and its liquidity conditions, particularly in the context of recent fluctuations in repo rates and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy actions. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Repo Rate Surge**: At the end of October, the U.S. repo rate surged to **47 basis points**, the highest since the pandemic, indicating significant liquidity pressure in the market [1][2][11]. 2. **Use of Fed's Standing Repo Facility**: The usage of the Federal Reserve's standing repo facility peaked at **$50 billion**, marking the highest level since its establishment in 2021, before declining significantly in the following days [2][21]. 3. **Market Composition**: The U.S. repo market consists of **money market funds, dealer banks, and hedge funds**, with funds flowing primarily through tri-party repos and bilateral delivery versus payment agreements [1][4]. 4. **Liquidity Distribution**: The repo market experienced two distinct phases during the Fed's balance sheet reduction, affecting liquidity distribution and borrowing costs among market participants [7][8]. 5. **Impact of Government Actions**: The recent U.S. government shutdown and Treasury bond issuance led to an increase in the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance, which in turn reduced bank reserves and affected the repo market dynamics [9][21]. 6. **End-of-Month Effects**: At month-end and quarter-end, dealer banks reduce their balance sheets to meet regulatory requirements, leading to increased borrowing costs for hedge funds and spikes in repo rates [10][11]. 7. **Misinterpretation of Liquidity Crisis**: Claims of a liquidity crisis among foreign banks' U.S. branches were deemed incorrect, as the observed decrease in their reserves was a natural outcome of reduced arbitrage activities rather than a liquidity shock [12]. 8. **Liquidity Definition**: Liquidity refers to the ease with which economic entities can obtain cash, and a liquidity crisis occurs when institutions struggle to access necessary cash [13][14]. 9. **Comparison of Liquidity Events**: The liquidity crisis in March 2020, triggered by the pandemic, was characterized by widespread asset sell-offs and a significant rise in the dollar's value, contrasting with the more contained liquidity pressures observed in recent months [17][18]. 10. **Future Repo Market Outlook**: The repo market's liquidity pressure is expected to ease, contingent on the reopening of the government and potential court rulings affecting TGA balances. The Fed may also consider resuming asset purchases if repo rates continue to rise significantly [21][22]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Arbitrage Mechanisms**: In normal conditions, the tri-party repo rate should lie between the Fed's overnight reverse repo rate (3.75%) and the standing repo facility rate (4%), ensuring that money market funds earn more than depositing with the Fed [5][6]. - **Market Resilience**: Recent fluctuations in the repo market have not significantly impacted broader asset classes, indicating a degree of resilience in the financial system [19]. - **Dollar Strength**: The recent strength of the dollar is attributed to various factors, including the Fed's stance on interest rates and positive economic data, rather than a direct liquidity crisis [24].