美国货币市场持续出现的资金压力，以及美联储银行准备金的逐步减少，表明美联储可能即将结束其大 规模的资产负债表缩减计划。 自9月初以来，美国担保隔夜融资利率(SOFR)与美联储基准利率之间的利差已接近2024年底以来的最高 水平，该利差是衡量短期融资成本的关键指标。 此外华尔街见闻曾提及，美国银行准备金也已跌破3万亿美元，创1月以来新低。这些迹象均表明美国金 融体系中的过剩流动性正在被快速吸收。 然而，在何时停止缩表的问题上，美联储内部似乎存在分歧。本周四即将公布的美联储9月会议纪要， 或将为外界提供更多关于决策者在此问题上立场的线索。 资金市场压力持续显现 当前金融体系流动性的持续流失，主要源于两大因素的叠加。 首先，美联储继续其量化紧缩进程，允许其持有的债券到期而不进行再投资，这直接从金融系统中抽走 了资金。由于QT可能加剧流动性限制并导致市场动荡，美联储已在今年早些时候放慢了其缩表步伐。 这直接导致担保隔夜融资利率（SOFR）等一系列与美国国债抵押回购协议相关的利率基准，持续徘徊 在美联储的准备金利率（IORB）附近，表明较高的融资成本或将持续。 随着流动性紧张的压力正越来越集中地体现在商业银行的准备金账 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国银行体系的准备金已连续八周下降，并首次跌破3万亿美元大关，令市场对美联储是否 会提前结束缩表产生关注。根据美联储周四公布的数据，截至10月1日的一周，银行准备金减少201亿美元至2.98 万亿美元，创下今年1月以来最低水平。 美联储内部对于"充裕水平"的定义并不一致。副主席鲍曼上周重申，应努力让资产负债表尽可能缩小，使准备金 接近"稀缺"水平。理事沃勒则在7月估算，最低准备金水平大约在2.7万亿美元附近。 准备金下滑与美国财政部的加大发债密切相关。自7月上调债务上限后，财政部加快发行国债以重建现金余额， 吸收了市场流动性。这直接冲击了美联储资产负债表中的负债端，包括隔夜逆回购(RRP)工具和商业银行准备 金。随着RRP逐渐枯竭，商业银行在美联储持有的准备金成为主要"出血口"，其中外国银行现金资产的降幅快于 美国本土银行。 尽管如此，美联储主席鲍威尔上月仍表示银行体系准备金"依然充裕"，并预计缩表将在准备金降至"充裕水平"时 结束。但近期资金市场的迹象显示，美联储可能已逐渐逼近这一临界点。 该变化正值美联储继续实施量化紧缩(QT)。QT通过缩减国债和MBS持有规模，收紧金融体系流动性。今 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a state of stagnation, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing minimal fluctuations, resembling a crowded subway during peak hours [1] - There is a significant divergence in market performance, with some sectors surging while others remain flat, indicating a lack of overall market momentum [1][3] Market Sentiment - The market is characterized by a cautious sentiment, with both retail and institutional investors waiting for clearer signals before making moves [3][5] - The current market environment is described as a "pause" where neither buyers nor sellers are willing to take decisive action [1][4] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced approach, holding both stocks and cash, while closely monitoring key signals such as volume near trend lines and external market changes [6] - The focus should be on sectors that are showing signs of recovery, particularly in technology and semiconductor industries, while avoiding overexposure to volatile stocks [4][6] External Influences - The market remains sensitive to external factors, particularly the actions of the Federal Reserve and fluctuations in the currency and commodity markets [4][6] - Recent inflows from foreign capital have been noted, but the overall investment climate remains cautious as investors prepare for potential volatility [3][4]

Group 1 - The recent focus in the foreign exchange market is on the movement of the US dollar, with the dollar index showing slight fluctuations, currently at 98.38, down 0.08% from the opening price of 98.46 [1] - According to ThuLan Nguyen, a foreign exchange analyst at Deutsche Bank, the Federal Reserve's future plans regarding the size of its balance sheet are becoming a key factor influencing the direction of the US dollar [3] - Nguyen emphasizes that recent positive signals from the market indicate support for accelerating the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction process, which had slowed since spring 2024 [3] Group 2 - If the Federal Reserve decides to accelerate the balance sheet reduction, particularly by adjusting its asset holdings, it will impact liquidity in the financial system and market interest rates [3] - This adjustment may lead to a new characteristic in monetary policy, with interest rates likely to remain low, supporting economic growth [3] - Nguyen notes that the combination of "loose rates and tight liquidity" may weaken the expected stimulative effect of rate cuts, potentially providing support for the US dollar in the medium term [3] Group 3 - From a technical analysis perspective, the current short-term resistance for the dollar index is in the 98.85-98.90 range, with significant resistance at 99.10-99.15 [4] - Short-term support is observed in the 98.30-98.35 range, with important support at the 98.00-98.05 level [4] - The dollar index is currently fluctuating within a critical technical range, with market participants closely monitoring breakout signals to determine future direction [4]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve lowered the policy interest rate by 25 basis points in September 2025, bringing the target range to 4%-4.25%[4] - The market had anticipated a 25 basis point cut with a probability of 96.1% prior to the meeting[7] - This marks a total of 125 basis points cut in the current cycle, with four reductions since the beginning of the cycle[16] Group 2: Divergence in Dot Plot - The dot plot indicates a widening divergence among committee members regarding future rate cuts, with 9 members supporting 2 more cuts this year, while 6 members believe there should be no further cuts[8] - One member suggested a reduction to below 3%, implying a need for cuts exceeding 50 basis points in the next two meetings[8] - The voting showed one dissenting vote, with Stephen I. Miran advocating for a 50 basis point cut instead of 25[28] Group 3: Economic Outlook - The Fed slightly raised its GDP growth forecast for 2025 to a median of 1.6% while maintaining the unemployment rate at 4.5%[9] - Inflation expectations for 2026 were slightly adjusted upward, with the Fed showing more tolerance for deviations from the 2% inflation target[9] - The Fed's statement highlighted a weakening job market as a significant reason for the rate cut, reflecting concerns over employment risks[10] Group 4: Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the Dow Jones increased by 0.57%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.1% and 0.33%, respectively[4] - Short-term Treasury yields declined, with the 3-month yield dropping by 2 basis points[30] - The dollar index showed volatility, initially falling before rebounding by the close of trading[30]

Core Viewpoint - Citigroup indicates that as the U.S. Treasury rebuilds its cash account, the reverse repo balance is being consumed, leading to a decline in bank reserves and increased pressure in the repo market, which may prompt Federal Reserve officials to discuss the balance sheet issue in their upcoming meeting [1][3][9] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Reduction - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction is nearing its final phase, with signs of liquidity tightening in the market [3][9] - According to Citigroup, the Fed's holdings of Treasury securities have decreased from approximately $5.8 trillion to $4.2 trillion, and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) have dropped from about $2.7 trillion to $2.1 trillion [4] - The Fed's balance sheet liabilities have shifted liquidity from reverse repos and bank reserves to the U.S. Treasury cash account, which has increased to about $680 billion and is expected to rise to around $850 billion [4][6] Group 2: Repo Market Pressure - As the reverse repo balance approaches zero, additional liquidity flowing into the Treasury cash account will primarily come from bank reserves, which are expected to decline to approximately $2.8 to $2.9 trillion by year-end [6] - The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) has been above the Interest on Reserve Balances (IORB) for most of September, exceeding IORB by 11 basis points recently, indicating rising repo market pressure [6][8] - Despite the increased pressure in the repo market, the effective federal funds rate remains relatively stable, with a slight risk of rising in relation to reverse repo rates in the coming months [8] Group 3: Implications for Investors - Citigroup expects that if repo market pressures persist, the Federal Reserve may end its balance sheet reduction by the end of the year, although a specific timeline may not be immediately announced [9] - The change in the Fed's balance sheet reduction pace could impact short-term interest rate markets and the yield curve, potentially stabilizing market liquidity and supporting risk assets while exerting downward pressure on short-term rates [9]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction plan may soon enter its final phase, with discussions on ending the tapering timeline expected in upcoming meetings due to signs of liquidity tightening in the market [1][7]. Group 1: Balance Sheet Reduction - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has been shrinking, with holdings of U.S. Treasuries decreasing from approximately $5.8 trillion to $4.2 trillion, and mortgage-backed securities (MBS) dropping from about $2.7 trillion to $2.1 trillion [2]. - The liquidity has shifted from reverse repos and bank reserves to the U.S. Treasury cash account, which has increased to around $680 billion and is projected to rise to about $850 billion in the coming weeks [2][5]. Group 2: Market Pressure Signals - The overnight secured financing rate (SOFR) has been above the interest on reserve balances (IORB) for most of September, exceeding it by 11 basis points recently, indicating rising pressure in the repo market [1][5]. - As reverse repo balances approach zero, additional liquidity flowing into the Treasury cash account will primarily come from bank reserves, which are expected to decline to approximately $2.8 to $2.9 trillion by year-end [5]. Group 3: Future Expectations - Citigroup anticipates that if repo market pressures persist, the Federal Reserve may conclude its balance sheet reduction by the end of this year, although a specific timeline has yet to be determined [1][7]. - The current market pressure is relatively mild compared to the 2018-2019 period, suggesting that the Federal Reserve is better prepared to address liquidity issues, which may lead to a smoother policy transition [7].

Group 1 - The demand for the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) tool has dropped to its lowest level in over four years, with 17 participants depositing a total of $21.07 billion [1] - The usage of the RRP tool has decreased significantly from approximately $460 billion at the end of June to the current levels, indicating a trend of declining liquidity in the financing market [3] - The balance of the RRP tool is approaching zero, which could lead to a loss of funds from bank reserves, a critical buffer for market stability [7] Group 2 - The current balance of bank reserves remains at $3.2 trillion, indicating that liquidity is still in a comfortable range despite the pressures from the declining RRP balance [7] - The Federal Reserve's asset balance is currently at $6.6 trillion, and any further liquidity scarcity may necessitate a halt to its long-standing balance sheet reduction process [8] - Market volatility in September may exert upward pressure on money market rates, potentially impacting liquidity, even as the Fed has slowed its monthly balance sheet reduction pace [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Dallas Fed President Logan indicated that the money market may face temporary pressures around the end of next month, despite the Fed having room to continue reducing its balance sheet [1][2] Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Conditions - Logan mentioned that temporary pressures might be observed during the September tax date and quarter-end, which could lead investors to utilize the Fed's overnight liquidity tools again, similar to June [1] - Since 2022, the Fed has been reducing its balance sheet to lower reserves to a more efficient level, reversing previous asset purchases made to stimulate the economy during the pandemic [1] - Currently, bank reserves are approximately $3.3 trillion, with the estimated minimum sufficient level around $2.7 trillion according to Fed Governor Christopher Waller [1] Group 2: Repo Market and Interest Rates - Logan noted that the average repo market rates have been about 8 basis points lower than the interest rate paid on bank reserves by the Fed in recent months, indicating more room to reduce reserves [2] - She emphasized the importance of continuing to provide upper limit tools while encouraging market participants to use them when economically attractive [2] Group 3: Fed Communication and Policy Review - Logan expressed satisfaction with the Fed's framework review but acknowledged that there is still work to be done in improving communication methods [2] - She suggested that adjustments may be needed for the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) to avoid overemphasizing the median while neglecting diverse viewpoints [2]

Group 1 - The scale of funds parked in the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) tool has dropped to its lowest level in over four years, raising market concerns about the cash held by banks at the Fed, which is a key indicator of liquidity conditions [1] - As of Thursday, 14 participating institutions had a total of $28.8 billion in the RRP, marking the lowest level since April 2021, with the number of bidding institutions also at its lowest since then [1] - The usage of the RRP tool has been declining as the U.S. Treasury issues more short-term debt to cover its growing deficit, drawing cash away from this critical backup funding source [1] Group 2 - Analysts estimate that by the end of August, RRP usage could approach zero, defining "exhaustion" as a range of $0 to $20 billion [2] - With the RRP balance nearing zero, there is little buffer left for banks, making reserves a focal point for market observation [2] - Since June 2022, the Federal Reserve has been reducing its bond holdings, with a slowdown in the pace of balance sheet reduction observed in April [2] Group 3 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that the Fed should be able to reduce bank reserve levels to around $2.7 trillion without putting pressure on bank reserves [3]