智通财经APP获悉，达拉斯联储主席洛根表示，货币市场可能在下个月季度末左右面临暂时性的压力， 尽管美联储仍有继续缩减资产负债表的空间。洛根周一在一场会议上表示："我们可能会在9月份的纳税 日和季度末看到一些暂时性的压力。如果出现这种情况，投资者可能会像6月份那样再次动用美联储的 隔夜流动性工具，而这些支持措施的存在将使我们能够继续逐步将准备金降至一个更高效的水平。" 自2022年以来，美联储一直在缩减央行资产负债表，目标是将准备金降至避免市场受到干扰的"最低充 足水平"。这一举措逆转了此前为应对大流行冲击、刺激经济而进行的数万亿美元资产购买。 今年，美联储放慢了资产负债表缩减的步伐。不过他们仍在讨论自己距离终点还有多远。根据最新的美 联储数据，目前银行准备金余额约为3.3万亿美元。美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒近期估算，最低充足水 平约为2.7万亿美元。 洛根提到回购协议市场利率，称其在最近几个月平均比美联储支付的银行准备金利率低大约8个基点。 她表示："这告诉我我们还有更多空间来减少准备金。我认为，在逐步降低准备金的同时，继续提供我 们的上限工具，并鼓励市场参与者在经济上具有吸引力时使用它们，这将是一种有效的策 ...

Group 1 - The scale of funds parked in the Federal Reserve's overnight reverse repurchase agreement (RRP) tool has dropped to its lowest level in over four years, raising market concerns about the cash held by banks at the Fed, which is a key indicator of liquidity conditions [1] - As of Thursday, 14 participating institutions had a total of $28.8 billion in the RRP, marking the lowest level since April 2021, with the number of bidding institutions also at its lowest since then [1] - The usage of the RRP tool has been declining as the U.S. Treasury issues more short-term debt to cover its growing deficit, drawing cash away from this critical backup funding source [1] Group 2 - Analysts estimate that by the end of August, RRP usage could approach zero, defining "exhaustion" as a range of $0 to $20 billion [2] - With the RRP balance nearing zero, there is little buffer left for banks, making reserves a focal point for market observation [2] - Since June 2022, the Federal Reserve has been reducing its bond holdings, with a slowdown in the pace of balance sheet reduction observed in April [2] Group 3 - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that the Fed should be able to reduce bank reserve levels to around $2.7 trillion without putting pressure on bank reserves [3]

一旦所谓的逆回购工具近乎枯竭，现金将开始从银行准备金余额中流失。这些准备金对为市场提供缓 冲、确保市场平稳运行所需的资金规模至关重要，还会决定美联储缩表的推进程度。 随着美国财政部在上月提高债务上限后持续发行数十亿美元短期国库券以补充现金余额，逆回购工具余 额已从7月底的2140亿美元降至当前水平。花旗策略师贾森·威廉姆斯和亚历杭德拉·巴斯克斯·普拉塔预 计，其使用率可能在8月底接近零。他们将"枯竭"定义为"0至200亿美元左右"的区间。 尽管作为逆回购工具最大使用群体的货币市场基金可能会为满足流动性需求而在央行保留部分现金，但 不断萎缩的余额几乎让银行失去了缓冲空间。 智通财经APP获悉，美联储一项关键工具的资金余额降至四年多来最低水平，这使得美国央行的银行现 金储备量(衡量流动性状况的指标)成为市场焦点。周四，14家参与机构通过美联储隔夜逆回购工具 (RRP)合计存入288亿美元。该工具供银行、政府支持企业及货币市场共同基金使用，机构可通过向央 行放贷赚取利息。纽约联储数据显示，这一余额为2021年4月以来最低，参与投标机构数量也降至同期 以来最少。 长期以来，美联储隔夜逆回购工具的使用率被视为融资市场过 ...

Global Monetary Policy Tracking - The major central banks of the US, Eurozone, and Japan have maintained their interest rates unchanged as of July 2025, with the Federal Reserve holding rates at 4.25%-4.5% [2][12] - The expectation for rate cuts in the US has decreased, with the anticipated number of cuts dropping from nearly 3 in early July to less than 2 by the end of July, and the probability of a September cut falling from 90% to about 40% [3][19] - In the Eurozone, the expectation for a rate cut has also cooled, with the probability of a September cut decreasing from 42% to approximately 10% [3][19] - Japan's central bank has maintained its policy rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time, with inflation expectations being revised upwards [3][15] Global Liquidity Tracking - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet has contracted, with reserves shrinking by $57.7 billion since the beginning of the tapering process, and a monthly reduction of $47.6 billion in July 2025 [4][27] - The liquidity in the non-bank sector is tightening, as indicated by the frequent positive spread between SOFR and EFFR rates, reflecting a significant liquidity squeeze in non-bank institutions [4][30] - The liquidity premium in the US dollar market remains elevated, with the Libor-OIS spread maintaining a high level, indicating that liquidity is still ample despite some tightening [6][40] Credit Risk Premium - Since July 2025, the OAS of US high-yield credit bonds and the CDS prices for high-yield and investment-grade bonds have seen a slight increase, indicating a rise in credit risk premium [9][45] - In contrast, CDS prices for credit bonds in Europe, Japan, and Asia remain low, suggesting a relatively stable credit environment outside the US [9][45]

Group 1: Global Monetary Policy Overview - The major central banks of the US, Eurozone, and Japan have maintained their interest rates unchanged as of July 2025, with the Federal Reserve holding rates at 4.25%-4.5%[2] - In July 2025, 4 out of 26 tracked economies reduced interest rates, down from 6 in June 2025[2] - The European Central Bank (ECB) paused its rate cuts after seven consecutive reductions, while the Bank of Japan has also kept its policy rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time[2] Group 2: Interest Rate Expectations - The Federal Reserve's expectation for rate cuts has cooled, with the anticipated number of cuts for the year dropping from nearly 3 in early July to less than 2 by the end of July[3] - The probability of a rate cut in September for the Federal Reserve decreased from 90% to about 40% but rebounded to nearly 90% in early August due to significant downward revisions in US non-farm payroll data[3] - The ECB's rate cut expectations fell from a forecast of one more cut in July to no cuts by the end of July, with September cut probability dropping from 42% to approximately 10%[3] Group 3: China's Interest Rate Position - China's nominal interest rate increased slightly, leading to a rise in real interest rates from 3% in June to 3.1% in July 2025, placing it at the 69th percentile historically since 2014[3] - China's real interest rate ranking among 13 major economies has dropped to 10th place in 2025, down from 11th in 2024[3] Group 4: US Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet and Liquidity - As of July 30, 2025, the Federal Reserve's reserves have shrunk by $57.7 billion compared to pre-tightening levels, with a monthly reduction of $47.6 billion in July[4] - The use of the discount window has increased, indicating potential liquidity stress among some smaller banks[4] - The SOFR-EFFR spread has frequently turned positive since 2025, reflecting tightening liquidity conditions for non-bank institutions[5] Group 5: Global Financial Market Liquidity - The bid-ask spread for US 10Y Treasuries has increased, indicating tighter supply-demand conditions, with the spread at the 66th percentile historically since 2001[6] - Credit spreads for high-yield bonds in the US have slightly widened since July, while spreads in Japan, Europe, and Asia remain low[6]

证券研究报告 宏观经济|宏观点评 何时降息的分歧扩大 ——美联储 7 月议息会议点评 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 glzqdatemark1 2025年08月01日 证券研究报告 |报告要点 2025 年 7 月的会议上美联储继续维持利率不变，政策利率的目标区间维持在 4.25%-4.5%，符 合市场预期，但是何时降息的分歧扩大，有 2 票反对。美联储会议声明中主要变化在于风险 和增长的表述。三大股指涨少跌多，美债利率上行。从美国经济基本面来看，就业市场表现稳 健，通胀的压力仍较温和，关税的影响略有体现，商品通胀略微上行，经济的韧性允许美联储 或继续观望，我们认为美联储或需要看到经济数据恶化才会降息。市场对 2025 年降息次数的 预期也更不确定，降息 2 次及以上的概率从 67%回落到 50%。 |分析师及联系人 王博群 SAC：S0590524010002 请务必阅读报告末页的重要声明 1 / 21 宏观经济|宏观点评 glzqdatemark2 2025年08月01日 宏观点评 何时降息的分歧扩大 ——美联储 7 月议息会议点评 相关报告 1、《短期收益或被高估而长期成本或被低估 ——美联储主席解雇问 ...

第一缕阳光洒在华尔街铜牛的身上，交易员们屏息凝视：莫斯科机场取消了485个航班，而美国非农就业数据即将公布。高盛首席经济学家David Mericle此 前发布的报告警示再次被反复传阅："任何恐慌性的就业数据都可能使提前降息成为最容易的选择。"劳动力市场的细微变化，正成为压垮利率的最后一根稻 草。 同一时刻，7月11日清晨，所有人的目光都集中在劳工部。当6月CPI数据最终揭晓时，美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒——下任美联储主席的热门人选——在他 的办公室屏幕上看到了期待已久的信号：核心通胀率连续第三个月温和下行。他拿起加密电话，拨通了美联储主席鲍威尔的号码："数据显示关税冲击可 控。"电话那端沉默片刻，只传来一句："等月底会议详谈。" 与此同时，日本财务省官员带着新的提案飞往华盛顿，韩国贸易代表团也抵达杜勒斯机场。全 球资本市场的神经依然紧绷，但暗流涌动，押注9月降息的资金正悄然越过警戒线，等待着美联储的最终指令。 高盛的Mericle在凌晨紧急修改的报告中明确写道："我们预计7月不会降息。"这份报告预测美联储将在9月、10月和12月分别降息25个基点，并在2026年再降 息两次。支撑这一预测的是日渐减弱的通胀压 ...

关税风险，特朗普过度自信；美联储沃勒支持继续缩表； 比特币大涨的背后 20250613 摘要 特朗普政府对多国加征关税，包括对巴西和加拿大采取超出预期的关税 措施，显示关税政策可能受政治因素影响，并不仅限于贸易考量，增加 了市场的不确定性。 特朗普政府对现有关税报价不满，可能要求相关国家重新制定关税协定， 直至其满意为止，这使得未来贸易政策走向存在变数，相关国家需在 8 月 1 日前重新谈判。 美国 6 月份关税收入达到约 270 亿美元，年化收入可能接近 3,000 亿美 元，这增强了特朗普政府推行关税政策的信心，但其过度自信和耐心不 足可能成为风险点。 新增的铜、医药、半导体等行业关税，通过 232 调查和 301 调查实施， 规避了法律障碍，但导致美国制造业成本上升，加剧了生产者的原材料 成本压力。 市场担忧从经济衰退转向通胀，导致美联储降息预期更加谨慎，可能引 发美债收益率上行、美元反弹以及股票市场避险情绪，与 4 月份的情况 有所不同。 Q&A 特朗普最近推出的一系列关税政策对市场的影响如何？ 7 月 9 日，特朗普推出了一系列新的关税政策，但市场反应并不激烈。上周， 特朗普与越南达成协议，将越南的 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve Governor Waller suggests that the Fed should reduce bank reserves from the current $3.26 trillion to about $2.7 trillion, which would lower the Fed's total balance sheet size to $5.8 trillion from the current $6.7 trillion [2] - Waller believes that the current federal funds rate is too tight and anticipates a potential interest rate cut at the next meeting later this month, despite being in the minority among his colleagues [2] - Waller emphasizes the importance of maintaining a "ample" level of reserves, estimating that the Fed needs to keep reserves above $3 trillion to $3.25 trillion to avoid market pressure [3] Group 2 - Waller is being considered as a candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair by President Trump, and he advocates for a gradual reduction of the balance sheet without drastic cuts [3] - Critics, including Kevin Warsh, have questioned the Fed's balance sheet policies, suggesting that it should be reduced to pre-financial crisis levels [4] - Waller proposes that the Fed's balance sheet structure should hold more short-term assets, with long-term securities serving as a hedge against monetary liabilities, constituting about half of the Fed's Treasury holdings [4]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve should continue to reduce the size of its balance sheet and adjust its structure to a higher proportion of short-term assets, without requiring a significant overall decrease [1] Group 1: Balance Sheet Management - The Federal Reserve can continue to allow securities to naturally exit the balance sheet through maturity and early repayment, thereby reducing reserve balances [1] - The current level of reserves in the banking system is described as "ample," exceeding what the Federal Reserve considers "adequate" [1] - Ideally, reserve levels should be around $2.7 trillion, while the overall balance sheet should be controlled at approximately $5.8 trillion, compared to the current size of about $6.7 trillion [1]