欧元/美元 上周五欧元震荡下行，日线小幅收跌，现汇价交投于1.1780附近。除获利回吐和1.1800关口附近所形成 的技术面卖盘对汇价构成了一定的打压外，美元指数在清淡的节假日市场交投氛围中收涨也对欧元构成 了一定的打压。不过，对欧洲央行降息接近尾声的预期限制了汇价的回调空间。今日关注1.1850附近的 压力情况，下方支撑在1.1700附近。 12月29日，美国银行首席执行官Brian Moynihan表示，尽管2025年的关税措施曾冲击美国经济，但他预 计特朗普政府将于明年推动贸易紧张局势降温。 Moynihan在12月初录制、并于上周日播出的访谈中表 示，美银目前判断局势将"走向缓和而非升级"。新关税框架下，平均税率将维持在15%，而对于不愿承 诺扩大对美采购或降低非关税壁垒的国家，税率则会更高。 "对多数国家而言，从全面征收10%关税调 整到15%，影响并不显著，"Moynihan表示，"我们的分析团队判断，这正是局势开始缓和的迹象。" 另外，受美联储自2022年以来缩减国债持仓的影响，美国国债市场近期出现明显摩擦。最新数据显示， 本月10年期美国国债的交割失败规模飙升至八年来最高水平，凸显出关键期限美 ...

通常而言，在美债再开标前，因新增供给尚未到位，相关券种在回购市场上出现"特殊利率"并不罕见。 但本次在12月15日结算的10年期美债再开标前，市场出现的券源短缺明显"不同寻常"。 受美联储自2022年以来缩减国债持仓的影响，美国国债市场近期出现明显摩擦。最新数据显示，本月10 年期美国国债的交割失败规模飙升至八年来最高水平，凸显出关键期限美债在回购市场中的供需失衡。 智通财经获悉，根据纽约联储公布的数据，截至12月10日当周，涉及最新一期10年期美债、未能按期完 成结算的交易规模达到305亿美元，为2017年12月以来最高。 交割失败集中出现之际，正值该期10年期国债的借贷利率出现异常下滑。这一批债券源自11月12日进行 的420亿美元拍卖，在回购市场上，一些持有人愿意以负利率出借，借券方同意次日以更低价格卖回， 在这种环境下，结算失败更容易发生。 业内人士指出，关键原因之一在于美联储持有并可出借的该期美债数量明显下降。South Street Securities总裁Jason Schuit表示："可供出借的国债明显更少。就这只10年期国债而言，美联储本轮购买 规模仅为此前三个周期的一半，这直接造成了供给短 ...

交割失败集中出现之际，正值该期10年期国债的借贷利率出现异常下滑。这一批债券源自11月12日进行的420 亿美元拍卖，在回购市场上，一些持有人愿意以负利率出借，借券方同意次日以更低价格卖回，在这种环境 下，结算失败更容易发生。 通常而言，在美债再开标前，因新增供给尚未到位，相关券种在回购市场上出现"特殊利率"并不罕见。但本次 在12月15日结算的10年期美债再开标前，市场出现的券源短缺明显"不同寻常"。 业内人士指出，关键原因之一在于美联储持有并可出借的该期美债数量明显下降。South Street Securities总裁 Jason Schuit表示："可供出借的国债明显更少。就这只10年期国债而言，美联储本轮购买规模仅为此前三个周 期的一半，这直接造成了供给短缺，从而引发交割失败。" 受美联储自2022年以来缩减国债持仓的影响，美国国债市场近期出现明显摩擦。最新数据显示，本月10年期美 国国债的交割失败规模飙升至八年来最高水平，凸显出关键期限美债在回购市场中的供需失衡。 根据纽约联储公布的数据，截至12月10日当周，涉及最新一期10年期美债、未能按期完成结算的交易规模达到 305亿美元，为2017年12 ...

Core Viewpoints - The recent pressures in the US funding market were caused by the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction, the US Treasury's TGA fund replenishment, and seasonal fluctuations [2][5] - After experiencing liquidity tightening due to these factors, the funding market pressures have significantly eased, indicating that liquidity stress is now manageable [5][6] Funding Market Dynamics - The repo market indicators showed increased spreads during September and October due to month-end pressures and TGA fund replenishment, but these spreads have since decreased in November [3][5] - The increase in spreads between the secured overnight financing rate (SOFR) and the interest on reserves balance (IORB) reflected liquidity tightening, but current levels are still below those seen during the 2019 repo market crisis [3][5] Use of Liquidity Tools - Financial institutions had been using the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) more frequently during September and October due to liquidity pressures, but usage has declined significantly since the end of October [4][5] - The SRF is designed to support effective monetary policy implementation and stabilize short-term rates during liquidity stress [4] Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's decision to end balance sheet reduction on December 1 is expected to further alleviate funding market pressures [6] - The Fed plans to reinvest proceeds from maturing mortgage-backed securities into short-term Treasury securities, which will help stabilize its balance sheet and mitigate liquidity risks [6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that factors such as the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction, the replenishment of the U.S. Treasury General Account (TGA), and seasonal fluctuations have led to some pressure signals in the U.S. funding market. However, liquidity pressure has significantly eased since November, and further relief is expected after the Fed stops its balance sheet reduction on December 1 [1]. Group 1 - The U.S. funding market experienced pressure signals due to the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction and TGA replenishment [1] - Several U.S. repo market spread indicators have shown a decline since the end of October, indicating a recovery in liquidity conditions [1] - Current liquidity pressure in the funding market is manageable, suggesting a stabilization in the financial environment [1] Group 2 - The cessation of the Fed's balance sheet reduction on December 1 is anticipated to further alleviate funding market pressures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current global liquidity crisis is primarily driven by the U.S. government shutdown and the Federal Reserve's uncertain monetary policy, leading to widespread declines in various asset classes, including stocks, gold, and cryptocurrencies, while the U.S. dollar index rises above 100 [1][2][7]. Group 1: Causes of Global Liquidity Crisis - The liquidity crisis began with the U.S. government shutdown, which prevented the flow of funds into the market, causing short-term borrowing rates to spike [2][4]. - The Federal Reserve's meeting on October 30 further exacerbated the situation, as Chairman Powell indicated uncertainty regarding future interest rate cuts, which led to a loss of market confidence [2][6]. - The failure of the U.S. Senate to pass a funding bill on November 4 intensified market fears, resulting in a significant sell-off across various asset classes [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Implications - Following the government shutdown's resolution, the market initially rebounded; however, the lack of timely economic data and increasing divisions among Federal Reserve officials created further uncertainty [6][7]. - The announcement that the October non-farm payroll data would not be released until December contributed to a decline in the probability of interest rate cuts, with the likelihood dropping to 32% [7][9]. - The market's focus has shifted back to liquidity concerns, with the potential for a more severe downturn if economic data continues to show weakness [10][11]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The liquidity crisis is expected to end around mid-December, coinciding with the release of significant economic data, including employment reports, which are anticipated to be poor due to the government shutdown's impact [12][15]. - The Federal Reserve is likely to halt its balance sheet reduction by December 1, which may lead to a resumption of asset purchases if economic conditions worsen [13][14]. - The recovery of global liquidity could prompt investment opportunities across various markets, including U.S. stocks, A-shares, and Hong Kong stocks, depending on the timing and nature of the economic data released [16].

②英伟达强劲的Q3财报数据以及Q4指引，或有助于平息"AI泡沫论"。叠加阿里将于11月25日公布财 报。 ①近期"AI泡沫论"+美元市场流动性紧张（美政府停摆+12月降息概率走低），港股科技股承压下跌。 ②恒生科技指数年内涨幅超20%的情况下，机构倾向于锁定利润，转而关注稳定性更高的红利资产。③ 港股年初IPO和配售个股迎来解禁期。 但积极因素同样在积累： ①恒生科技指数10月以来持续回调，自10月3日至今累计回调幅度超18%。 受隔夜超预期的9月非农数据+美股跳水下跌，今日港股全线低开，恒生科技指数跌2.21%，恒生互联网 ETF、恒生科技指数ETF分别跌2%和1.6%。 资金却选择越跌越买，恒生科技指数ETF自10月30日-11月20日的16个交易日连续获资金净申购，合计 净流入额44.72亿元，期内下跌10.11%。恒生互联网ETF同样上演16日净流入，合计净流入25.18亿元， 期内下跌10.24%。 港股近期持续调整的原因： ③美联储12月1日暂停缩表+9月非农数据虽超预期，但美联储更关注的失业率连续三个月上升。 相关产品，及截至发稿涨跌幅： 港股全科技赛道：恒生科技指数ETF(513180)，-1 ...

黄金昨天坐楼梯爬升后，突发跳水，直接坐上了过山车。直线跳水后，今天迎来二度闪跌，整体跌超90 美金，大起大落，持续高位调整，争夺4100关口。 昨天4129附近，再次空单获利。 今天的走势 下方回落，看向4040，看两个区域范围内的调整。 下方若持续回调，下穿4040，继续看向4000的关口的支撑。 昨天高台跳水，闪崩跌穿4100后。 今天反弹不延续，又是二度跳水。 直接跌至4040，迎来快涨调整。 快涨快跌，调整为主。 上方可看4100的关口，再上破，看向4142的阻力。 当然了，不破4100，继续承压调整。 黄金9月刷新高后，上演单边抛物线涨势，10月加速刷历史新高后。上演疯狂跳水过山车。到本月横盘 后，多头再度爆发，二度过山车跳水，走出两座大山，双山压制，重回调整区域，上方可调整空间，看 向4160的区域。下方再次回调，可看向4000的关口。 操作方面，黄金接连跳水，继续看承压调整，关注4142和4100做空的机会。此外，黄金下方面临关键支 撑区域，关注4040和4000做多的机会。 昨天主要因素： 一方面，美失业金爆雷，一个大的风险悄悄临近，美政府停摆1个月多月，美失业金多数大幅上修，裁 员数据剧增， ...

Core Insights - The report analyzes the current state and future trends of US dollar liquidity through a three-dimensional observation matrix, focusing on the federal funds market, the repo market, and the offshore dollar market, indicating that while liquidity remains ample, structural pressures are building [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Funds Market - The core observation metric has shifted from "price" to "scale," with total reserves in the banking system reflecting the abundance of base dollars. As of September 2025, total reserves are maintained at $3.2 trillion, accounting for 12.9% of total bank assets, indicating a relatively ample liquidity condition [1][11]. - Despite the Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction since June 2022, the use of reverse repo tools has buffered the impact, preventing a significant withdrawal of reserves from the banking system [1][11]. - Continuous balance sheet reduction, rising Treasury General Account balances, and the nearing exhaustion of overnight reverse repo tools indicate that reserves are under pressure and may approach the liquidity warning line set by the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Group 2: Repo Market - The repo market serves as a crucial hub for dollar liquidity, with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) and the behavior of primary dealers being key observation points. Recently, the spread between SOFR and the overnight reverse repo rate has widened, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [2][18]. - The ratio of primary dealer reverse repos to reserve balances has been increasing, suggesting a tightening of funding supply, although it has not yet reached crisis levels seen in past financial stress periods [2][18]. - The Federal Reserve's standing repo facility has been heavily utilized at quarter-end, highlighting vulnerabilities in the repo market during structural gaps [2][21]. Group 3: Offshore Dollar Market - The offshore dollar market has shown characteristics of "bondification" and "derivatization," with traditional bank credit declining and bonds and foreign exchange derivatives becoming the main drivers of credit expansion [2][25]. - Monitoring offshore dollar liquidity is challenging through quantity indicators; thus, the currency swap basis has become an important observation metric. A widening basis indicates dollar scarcity, while a narrowing trend since 2025 suggests maintained liquidity even under external shocks [2][30]. - The transition from LIBOR to SOFR as the primary pricing benchmark reflects a shift in global dollar pricing power from offshore to onshore markets, diminishing the relevance of LIBOR-related indicators [2][29].

Core Points - The U.S. government shutdown has reached a record duration, surpassing the previous record of 35 days set in 2018, with the latest funding bill failing for the 14th time [1][6] - The shutdown is primarily due to a stalemate between the two parties over healthcare subsidies, with one side wanting to extend subsidies and the other aiming to cut spending and reduce staff [6][8] - Approximately 750,000 federal employees are on unpaid leave, and many Americans are struggling financially due to the lack of income, leading to increased reliance on food assistance [10] Economic Impact - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the economic loss from the shutdown is about $7 billion for every four weeks, potentially reaching $14 billion if it lasts eight weeks [10] - The shutdown has led to increased liquidity pressure in the financial markets, with the Treasury General Account (TGA) balance rising significantly while normal government spending is halted [12] - Interbank borrowing costs have risen, with the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) reaching 4.22%, indicating tight cash conditions in the banking sector [13] Market Reactions - The ongoing liquidity issues are affecting the stock market, which has been supported by a few leading AI companies [16] - The Federal Reserve's decision to halt balance sheet reduction in December is a response to the liquidity pressures caused by the shutdown [15] - The potential for a rapid release of funds into the market once the government reopens could create a rebound opportunity for the market [18]