证 券 研 究 报 告 [T日ab期le_Industry] : shzqdatemark 2026年03月02日 | 固 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 定 | | | | | | | | [T分ab析le师_Author] | 张河生 | : | 收 | Tel: | 021-53686158 | 益 | | E-mail: | zhanghesheng@shzq.com | 周 | 编号: | SAC | S0870523100004 | 报 | | [T相ab关le报_R告e：portInfo] | 《美联储"缩表"并非新事物，降息或超 | | | | | | | 预期》 | ——2026 | 年 | 月 | 日 | 02 | 04 | | 《国际避险情绪提升与国内投资风险偏好 | 高企》 | | | | | | | ——2026 | 年 | 月 | 日 | 01 | 30 | 《结构性降息落地与格陵兰岛局势升级》 | | ——2026 | 年 | 月 | 日 | 01 | 21 | | [T相ab关le报_R告e ...

钛媒体App 2月19日消息，美联储卡什卡利：沃什一直以来都直言不讳地提出关于美联储的想法，期待 接下来的讨论。不确定美联储能否在没有根本性变化的情况下缩减资产负债表。（广角观察） ...

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street strategists believe that Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve chairman nominated by Trump, has multiple avenues to reduce the Fed's $6.6 trillion balance sheet, but the process is costly and time-consuming [1] Group 1: Potential Strategies for Balance Sheet Reduction - Possible strategies for balance sheet reduction include relaxing regulations that encourage banks to hold large amounts of cash reserves at the central bank [1] - Another option is to shorten the average maturity of the Fed's holdings [1] - The Fed could also cease purchasing Treasury securities or even directly sell securities [1] Group 2: Challenges and Timeframe - A less likely option is to resume balance sheet reduction through quantitative tightening, which was abandoned in December due to increased borrowing by the government leading to pressure in the money markets [1] - Following this, the Fed shifted to purchasing Treasury securities to inject reserves back into the system [1] - Regardless of the path taken under Warsh's leadership, it may take several years to implement any of these strategies [1]

被提名出任美联储主席的沃什（Kevin Warsh）或许希望缩减资产负债表，但在不对金融体系进行重大 改造的情况下，他很难如愿；即便进行了调整，这一目标也未必能实现。 这是因为美联储当前实现货币政策目标的运作机制，依赖于银行体系持有大量资金。金融体系的流动性 水平及美联储调控工具的运用，最终会限制美联储资产规模能缩减到什么程度，同时还要让货币市场保 持平稳运行。 多数美联储观察人士认为，要突破这种市场重力，需要在美联储管理货币市场利率的方式上作出调整， 并配合修改监管规则以改变银行对准备金的胃纳。 "要让美联储在金融市场上的足迹更小，并没有一条直截了当的路径，"蒙特利尔银行资本市场分析师表 示。"事实是，除非通过监管改革来降低银行对准备金的需求，否则（系统公开市场账户）的持仓规模 要显著缩小，可能并不现实——而这一进程需要数季度而非数月才能显现。" "我们理解，当一家央行的资产负债表很大时，能够便利政府融资，但这是非常不可取的，且会干扰金 融市场，"布兰代斯大学（Brandeis University）的Stephen Cecchetti与纽约大学的Kermit Schoenholtz在2 月8日的博客贴文中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing increased downward pressure, with gold and silver prices declining significantly amid reduced trading activity due to traditional holiday closures in major markets and changing expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate policies [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Market - As of the latest report, spot gold prices fell to $4,941.04 per ounce, down 1.00% for the day, while COMEX gold futures dropped to $4,958.3 per ounce, a decrease of 1.74% [1][4]. - The price of gold faced resistance at the psychological level of $5,000 per ounce, exacerbated by profit-taking from some investors [4][6]. - Following a rapid increase in prices earlier in the year, gold has seen significant volatility, with predictions suggesting it may fluctuate between $4,800 and $5,200 per ounce in the short term [6][7]. Group 2: Silver Market - Spot silver prices reported at $75.06 per ounce, reflecting a daily decline of 2.04%, while COMEX silver futures fell to $74.93 per ounce, down 3.89% [1][4]. - The silver market is also impacted by expectations of a reduction in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, leading to a historical level of price correction, although physical inventory remains low and ETF holdings have not decreased [7]. - Short-term price predictions for silver suggest a range between $65 and $100 per ounce, despite the recent price drop [7]. Group 3: Jewelry Prices - Despite the decline in gold prices, several jewelry brands reported that the price of 24K gold jewelry remains above 1,500 yuan per gram, indicating sustained high retail prices [6]. - Specific prices for gold jewelry from various brands include: - Lao Miao Gold: 1,515 yuan/gram - Chow Sang Sang: 1,520 yuan/gram - Liufeng Jewelry: 1,527 yuan/gram - Chow Tai Fook: 1,529 yuan/gram - China Gold: 1,536 yuan/gram [6].

截至发稿，现货方面，现货黄金一度失守4900美元/盎司关口，最新价报4941.04美元/盎司，日内下跌 1.00%；现货白银在日内多次震荡，最新价报75.06美元/盎司，日内下跌2.04%；期货方面，COMEX黄 金报4958.3美元/盎司，日内下跌1.74%；COMEX白银报74.93美元/盎司，日内下跌3.89%。 | 黄金/美元 [] Q | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | XAU | | | | | 持仓 日増 -100%-4979 芯于 | | | | | 5120.78 2.60% 卖1 4941.33 | 0 | | | | 买1 4940.75 | 0 | | | | 时 价 111 | | | | | 20:28 4941.86J | O | | | | 20:28 4942.591 | 0 | | | | 20:28 4941.97J 成交量 0 分时量:0- 现量: -- | 0 | | | | 20:28 4941.31J | 0 | | | | 7 | | | | | MACD ▼ DIF:2.545 ↓ DEA:2.580 ↓ M :- 0.07 ...

美国银行经济学家指出，投资者对美联储与美国财政部可能达成"协同协议"的猜测正引发疑问。该行认 为，此类协议"定义尚不明确"，且可能性很可能已被市场消化。"除非协议内容超越当前市场讨论范 畴，否则任何新协议都难以引发实质性价格波动。"美银称，协议将主要围绕美联储缩表及美债发行展 开。经济学家预计，若货币政策受到影响（该行认为可能性极低）或财政部限制长债发行（美银认为存 在可能），则对市场影响更大。 来源：滚动播报 ...

路透调查显示，长端美债收益率短期内将持稳，但受通胀及美联储独立性担忧影响，年内晚些时候将趋 于上行；短端收益率则因降息押注温和走低。与此同时，近60%的债券策略师（37人中的21人）认为， 为特朗普减税及支出计划融资而面临的未来数年巨额国债发行，将使美联储大幅缩减6.6万亿美元资产 负债表不具可行性。另一项路透调查显示，美联储预计将在今年晚些时候实施两次降息，首次在沃什接 任美联储主席的6月。对利率敏感的2年期美债收益率预计将从目前的3.50%降至4月底的3.45%、7月底 的3.38%。调查中值还显示，基准10年期美债收益率一年后料升至4.29%，高于上月预测的4.20%。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Becerra, stated that even if Kevin Warsh becomes the Federal Reserve Chairman, the Fed will not rush to reduce its balance sheet, with decisions expected to take up to a year to finalize [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet Management - The adjustment of the balance sheet will be decided independently by the Federal Reserve, and if it shifts to a "sufficient reserves" policy, a large balance sheet will need to be maintained [1] - Warsh's nomination is seen as a significant shift in monetary policy direction, aiming to balance the Fed's independence with administrative pressure [1] - Warsh's policy is characterized as a moderate hawkish stance, advocating for a substantial reduction in the balance sheet to create space for lowering the federal funds rate [2] Group 2: Market Reactions and Concerns - The market perceives Warsh's "balance sheet reduction and rate cut" policy as bold but fraught with uncertainties, potentially leading to a sharp rise in overnight financing rates if the Fed aggressively reduces reserves [2] - Experts warn that reducing the balance sheet could raise long-term rates, directly impacting the goal of lowering rates [2] - Citi strategists believe Warsh may adopt a gradual approach to reduce the Fed's approximately $6.6 trillion balance sheet to avoid reigniting tensions in the money market [3] Group 3: Policy Implementation Strategies - Citi suggests that the threshold for restarting quantitative tightening (QT) is very high, with policymakers preferring a more moderate approach to balance sheet management [3] - Under Warsh's leadership, the Fed may have various "de-leveraging" options, with the least resistance path being the rolling over of maturing long-term Treasury bonds into short-term debt [3]

【市场要闻速递】 据消息，当地时间2月10日，美国总统特朗普称他正在考虑，若与伊朗的谈判未能取得成果，或向中东 地区再派遣一支美国航母打击群，为可能的军事行动做准备。特朗普当天还表示，"伊朗不会拥有核武 器或者导弹"。特朗普预计，美伊第二轮谈判将在下周举行。他强调，任何与伊朗达成的协议都必须不 仅包括核问题，还必须包括处理伊朗的弹道导弹问题。他补充说，"我们可以与伊朗达成一份非常好的 协议"。 黄金前期低点或已形成阶段性底部。即便未来美联储启动"缩表"，也并不意味着债务扩张停滞，从长期 配置角度看，黄金仍具有较高的配置价值。 全球最大黄金ETF--SPDR Gold Trust持仓报告显示，2月10日黄金etf持有量为1079.32吨，较上一交易日 减少0.34吨。周一（2月10日)截止收盘，现货黄金报5024.19美元/盎司，跌幅0.67%，日内最高上探至 5077.99美元/盎司，最低触4985.99美元/盎司。 ...