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始终没能收割中国,美联储死不降息,说白了就是在等中国先扛不住
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-02 04:49
Group 1 - The resilience of the Chinese economy poses a significant challenge to the Federal Reserve's high-pressure monetary policy, which has not achieved its intended effects on China [1] - The U.S. federal debt is projected to exceed $36 trillion by 2025, with annual interest payments reaching $1.5 trillion, leading to a burden of nearly $5,000 per taxpayer [3] - The Federal Reserve's strategy involves maintaining high interest rates to create a liquidity siphoning effect, aiming to induce capital outflows from emerging markets like China [3] Group 2 - China's economy has demonstrated unprecedented resilience, supported by $3 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, which acts as a protective barrier against market shocks [3] - The Chinese central bank has effectively intervened in the market to stabilize it during periods of capital outflow, preventing panic selling [4] - China's financial strategy has shifted from pure defense to a more balanced approach, including significant reductions in U.S. Treasury holdings and increased investments in gold [4] Group 3 - The traditional dominance of the U.S. dollar in international trade is being challenged by the growing use of the renminbi in cross-border payments among developing countries [6] - In contrast to China's economic growth, the U.S. economy faces multiple challenges, including high vacancy rates in commercial real estate and increasing bank failures [8] - China's macroeconomic data shows strong performance in sectors like new energy vehicle exports and shipbuilding, highlighting its competitive edge [8] Group 4 - Emerging market countries are reducing their reliance on the U.S. dollar, with economies based on real production showing greater resilience amid interest rate fluctuations [9] - The Federal Reserve's expectation that China would falter under pressure appears to be a misguided assumption, as China's industrial activity remains robust [9]