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这家私募年中交流很有料!深谈新消费、家电、互联网及量化冲击的“慢思考”……
聪明投资者· 2025-07-15 06:32
Core Viewpoints - The investment philosophy emphasizes the importance of not losing money and focusing on long-term value rather than chasing trends [1][6] - The banking sector is experiencing a rare turning point with net interest margins dropping below non-performing loan ratios, indicating potential risks [1][55] - The investment strategy is concentrated in consumer discretionary, financials, and information technology, with over 80% allocation in these sectors [1] Group 1: Financial Sector Insights - The financial sector, particularly property insurance, is expected to see stable growth in premium income, with a projected growth rate of 6-7% for 2023 and 2024 [21][22] - The demand for property insurance is closely linked to social wealth accumulation, with certain insurance types showing strong demand regardless of economic conditions [23][24] - The investment strategy includes increasing equity investment ratios to counteract declining fixed-income asset yields, potentially improving underwriting profit margins [2][28] Group 2: Consumer Discretionary Sector Insights - The home appliance sector is expected to maintain stable domestic demand, with significant growth potential in overseas markets, particularly in developing regions [15][19] - The current valuation of leading home appliance companies is lower than their international counterparts, with dividend yields exceeding 5% [20] - The investment outlook for home appliance leaders remains strong due to their healthy balance sheets and cash reserves, allowing for potential dividend increases [20] Group 3: Internet Platform Companies - Internet platform companies are focusing on adjusting existing businesses and creating new growth avenues, with AI becoming a key competitive factor [29][30] - The shift towards open-source AI models is expected to enhance application scenarios and business model breakthroughs, moving beyond just model performance [31] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with companies leveraging existing user ecosystems to explore AI applications, thereby increasing user engagement [31][32] Group 4: Investment Strategy and Historical Context - The investment approach has evolved through three phases, with a focus on maintaining a balance between quality and price, especially after learning from past mistakes [7][14] - The importance of patience in investment is highlighted, with a focus on long-term value rather than short-term market fluctuations [70] - Historical examples from successful investors like Buffett are used to illustrate the significance of understanding business fundamentals and maintaining a disciplined investment strategy [86][87]